Thursday, December 22, 2016

Week 16 Picks

My picks and my thoughts on the Wizards can also be found on Sports on the Hill at 14 min 06  sec mark.  My most up to date picks can be found here.


Head coach Ben McAdoo was fined for using a walkie-talkie

New York Giants (+1) @ Philadelphia -




  Philadelphia did play the Ravens close and return home, and it's a division rivalry game that favors the home team.  Still, the Giants defense has playing out of its mind over the past 9 weeks and the Eagles offense has been questionable especially since they have failed to log a win against a division opponent.  

Atlanta (-2.5) @ Carolina -



Julio Jones had 300 yards last time.  While it is a rivalry game, the Falcons are the superior offensive team.  The Panthers looked much better against Washington although they will likely be without Luc Keachly again.

Miami(+3.5) @ Buffalo -



Miami did come away with a win in cold weather conditions against the Jets and look to continue the trend.  The only team the Bills have beaten with a winning record is the 12-2 New England Patriots who were without Tom Brady.

Washington (-3) @ Chicago -



The Bears have lost 3 consecutive games by 3 points but all to division rivals.   Washington really needs this game although it could be tough.  Alshon Jeffery is back and Matt Barkely has been playing well.  A potential trap game for Washington, but they are still playing for a playoff birth.  

New York Jets @ New England (-16.5) - The Jets look like they are falling apart after a big loss to the Dolphins where the Patriots appear to be finding their rhythm.  New England will try to make up for a poor performance when they beat the Jets by less than a touchdown.  

San Diego (-5.5) @ Cleveland - San Diego kept it close against a Raiders team.  Nobody wants to lose to the Browns.  RG3 did beat the Chargers back in 2013 in OT.

Tennessee (5) @ Jacksonville - 

The Titans look to run the ball to victory like they did against Kansas City.

Brian Orakpo, who was just named to the pro bowl, leads the Titans defense 


Minnesota @ Green Bay (-6.5) -

 Rodgers and the Packers appear to found their stride.  The Vikings in the meantime are 2-7 after starting the season 5-0.

Indianapolis (+4) @ Oakland - While the Raiders are slight favorites at home, the Colts could keep it close given that their impressive road wins including against Pittsburgh and Green Bay.  

Tampa Bay @ New Orleans (-2) - New Orleans appears to have found its offensive bearings against the Cardinals and look to play spoiler in this one against the Bucaneers.  

San Francisco @ LA  (-3.5) -

In a battle of terrible teams, the Rams are at home and look to finally get Todd Gurley going.

Arizona (+8.5) @ Seattle - Arizona and Seattle re-match after a 6-6 tie- somehow both teams are playing better offensively.  Seattle does play much better at home although it could remain close because it is a division rivalry.

Cincinatti @ Houston (-1) -




Marvin Lewis now 8-22 against the Steelers all-time and have 9,479 days since their last playoff win.  Houston looks like a better team with Tom Savage and looks to utilize DeAndre Hopkins more against the Bengals defense.


Baltimore @ Pittsburgh (-5.5) - Big Ben and the Steelers look like a stronger team especially since the Ravens barely beat an Eagles.  This is a division game and the Ravens did beat the Steelers earlier this season.  Still, Big Ben looks much healthier since the first meeting but it is a division game.

Denver @ Kansas City (-4) - Both teams had disappointing losses.  Denver needs to keep its playoff hopes alive but their o-line has been sub-par and also have decided to shut down CJ Anderson.  

Detroit(+7) @ Dallas - Both teams are playing for a division title.  While the Lions are dealing with their share of injuries, the Lions could keep it within a touchdown against Dallas.

Last week against the spread: 8-8
Last week straight up: 12-4 
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Thursday, December 15, 2016

Week 15 Picks

My picks can also be found here on Sports on the Hill at 1h 49min 45 sec mark.  A few picks may have changed from then.  
The Rams move on from Jeff Fisher after a 42-14 loss to the Falcons.
LA (+15.5) @ Seattle  -



Both teams had terrible games last Sunday.  Russell Wilson lost for the 1st time in his career by more than 10 points.  Jeff Fisher has clinched his 11th losing season as head coach and that was enough to get him fired.

There are 4 teams in the NFL to score 10 points or less in at least 4 different games this season: Browns, Jets, Rams, and Seahawks.  Seattle may rebound although they did lose to the Rams this season earlier on the road.  And perhaps the Rams will play with a bit more fire now that Jeff Fisher is out.  

Miami (-2.5)@ New York Jets - Ryan Tanehill is out with a knee injury, Matt Moore could be a competent QB, Moore (16-9 TD as a starter) and has beaten the Jets before.    

Cleveland @ Buffalo (-10) - After losing to the Steelers, the Bills looks to put the clamps on RG3 lead Browns.  Perhaps Griffin will play better in the 2nd consecutive week, but the Browns problems run far deeper than that in their winless season.  

Detroit (+4.5) @ New York - Matthew Stafford has 8 winning drives this season.  The Giants defense has held off last minute winning drives in 8 of their 9 wins.  Something has to give.  

Philadelphia @ Baltimore (-6)- Baltimore looks to get back on track after losing to the Patriots to keep their playoff hopes alive.  Philadelphia is almost eliminated from postseason play and have been terrible on the road so far this season.  

Pittsburgh (3.5) @ Cincinnati - The Steelers are looking to complete the season sweep.  Leveon Bell didn't play the first time but neither did Burfict.   This time the Bengals will be without AJ Green and Bernard.  

Indianapolis @ Minnesota (-3.5) - The Colts may be without a few offensive weapons as TY Hilton and Donte Moncrieff miss practice.  Adrian Peterson could return this Sunday.  

Green Bay (6) @ Chicago - Chicago has been playing better and has played the Lions and Giants close in losses but the Packers looked like a well oiled machine against the Seattle and needs to win this game to keep its playoff hopes alive.  

Tennessee (+5.5) @ Kansas City - The Chiefs looks to cement itself as the best team in the AFC with a win on Sunday.  The Titans could make it a close game though as they are also eyeing a potential playoff spot.  

Jacksonville @ Houston (6)- Another battle of sub-par QBs; Osweiler vs Bortles.  The Texans have the edge because they have better receivers, a decent running game and a decent defense.

New Orleans @ Arizona (-2.5) - 

The Cardinals defense looks to continue that trend especially since the Saints have struggled on the road this season.

San Francisco @ Atlanta (-13.5) - No Julio Jones but the offense didn't suffer against the Rams especially with the emergence of Taylor Gabriel.  The 49ers did play the Jets close but the Falcons offense is a different beast.

New England (2.5) @ Denver - Rematch of the AFC championship game as the Patriots look to get revenge.  The Broncos offense has been sub-par over the past few weeks.

Oakland (3.5) @ San Diego - Bosa might be out for the Chargers.  The Raiders look to get back on track against a Chargers team that has struggled mightily over the past two weeks.

Tampa Bay (+7.5) @ Dallas - Dallas does need to win this game but the Bucaneers are one of the hottest teams in football and could make this game close.  

Carolina @ Washington (2.5)  - Washington did beat Eagles 27-22 , which is a good omen for them.  Minnesota and Atlanta are 2 teams that lost to the Eagles at Philadelphia and went on to beat Carolina.

Last year, Carolina beat Washington 44-16  although now Josh Norman is on Washington.  Cam Newton's accuracy has been significantly worse this season despite having Kelvin Benjamin back in the lineup.  The Panthers' defense has been suspect this season although they did play well last week against the Chargers.


Last week against the spread: 13-3
Last week straight up - 12-4
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Thursday, December 8, 2016

Week 14 Picks

My picks can also be found on the Sports on the Hill Podcast which is found at the 1h:43min mark. (My most up to date picks can be found here.)

Kansas City already beat Oakland 26-10 earlier this season.  

Oakland @ Kansas City (- 3) - 



Oakland had a sub-par effort against Buffalo and pulled it out lately while Chiefs with a close win against the Falcons.  It is still a rivalry game but the short week usually favors the home team.

Pittsburgh (-2) @ Buffalo - The Steelers are  are coming off an impressive double digit victory against the Giants while the Bills blew a double digit lead against the Raiders.   While Pittsburgh did beat the Giants at home, their road wins as of late include the Browns and the Colts without Andrew Luck. While the Steelers have laid eggs on the road, they have also come up big against teams like Washington.

San Diego @ Carolina (-1.5) - Both teams are coming off losses.  Luke Kuechly looks like he will be back which could be enough for the Panthers to slow down San Diego.

Cincinnati (-5.5) @ Cleveland-  The Bengals defense appears to have woken up against the Eagles and will look to feast on the Browns who are coming off a bye.  RG3 is coming back who lost to the Bengals in his rookie season.

Chicago(+8) @ Detroit- The Lions are playing good ball although the Bears did beat the Lions in OT earlier this season. That being said, Stafford and the Lions should still come away with a win but it could still a close game.

Houston (+6) @ Indianapolis - The Colts are the early favorites given that they have a stronger passing game and they are at home. But it could be a close game because they are division rivals.

Minnesota (-3) @ Jacksonville- After losing a game to the Cowboys due to some questionable officiating, the Vikings get a gift on the schedule. Coach Zimmer returns from surgery; the Jaguars are hoping Gus Bradley gets fired after losing a winnable game.

Arizona (+1) @ Miami - Arizona looks like the slight favorites here after putting together a solid performance.  The key for them will be to force timely turnovers against the Dolphins  and giving the ball to David Johnson, who had 175 all purpose yards against Washington.  The Redskins certainly regret taking Matt Jones over David Johnson in the 2015 NFL Draft.

Washington (-1) @ Philadelphia- Consider Washington the slight favorites although they will have to bring their A game even if the Eagles are struggling.  The Eagles have only lost one home game all year, and Cousins looked shaky last week against Arizona.  Still, Trent Williams returns and hopefully the game does not come down to a goal line fade.

Denver (+1) @ Tennessee - While the Titans are coming off a bye, Denver should be playing desperately if they want to make the playoffs

NY Jets (+2.5) @ SF - This might be the 49ers best chance at a win since week 1, although they struggled immensely against the Bears and the Jets are more than capable of beating the 49ers with superior wide receivers and a better running game.

New Orleans @ Tampa Bay (-2.5)- Tampa Bay passing game with Evans and Brate has helped Winston get it going. The Saints on the road aren't as good at home who just lost to the Lions.

Seattle @ Green Bay (+3)-



Weather could be a factor, still the Seattle showed it can beat a team like the Packers who have struggled to generate a pass rush.  Still, expect a close game that could go either way especially with Earl Thomas out.  This may be one of the best rivalries in the NFL.

Atlanta (-6) @ LA Rams - Atlanta looks to add another win against a n anemic Rams' offense.

Dallas (-3) @ NY Giants -  Look for the Cowboys to play hard against the Giants considering they are the only team that beat this year.

 Baltimore (+7.5) @ New England  - Ravens pulled in a great performance against the Dolphins.  It could be potentially a good game and the Ravens should keep it close especially since Gronk is out. I'm picking the Patriots to come away in a toss up game.

Last week against the spread: 9-6
Last week straight up: 9-6
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Thursday, December 1, 2016

Week 13 Picks

My picks can also be found on the Sports on the Hill Podcast which is found at the 1h:38min mark. (My most up to date picks can be found here.)

Top 3 teams are 12-5 at home and 16-0 on the road.

Dallas (-3) @ Minnesota -




Dallas has not lost since week 1 and now Sam Bradford is dealing with an ankle injury.  The Vikings may get Stefon Diggs back although the Cowboys are getting back safety Barry Church.

Detroit (+6) @ New Orleans  - Drew Brees over his last 7 games 331 ypg, 20 TDS, 5 interceptions, 115 QB rating.  While the Saints are slight favorites at home, expect a close game against Detroit.

LA (+13.5) @ New England -


Brady is also responsible for 40% of the Patriots all time wins

The Rams defense which gave up 49 points last week in New Orleans could be in trouble again as they face a high octane New England offense who looks to get back on track a bit against a non-division foe.  The Rams ratings in LA continue to be worse than when the Rams were in St. Louis.  Still, expect the Rams to potentially keep it close just because Gronkowski is out.

Denver (-3.5) @ Jacksonville - Denver comes off a tough OT loss to a division rival which was blown thanks to a muffed punt.  Talib was not pleased.  The Broncos' defense should be extra motivated against a Jacksonville team which has lost 6 straight.  Trevor Siemians is questionable with a foot injury.





San Francisco (+1) @ Chicago - Both teams lost relatively close games last week against AFC teams.  The Bears lost lineback Danny Trevathan for the season.   Loser of this game likely gets the 2nd pick.  The 49ers may win here even if Matt Barkely is playing well.  The 49ers have almost came away with wins against the Arizona and Miami and played the Patriots tough in a 13 point loss.

Houston @ Green Bay (-6.5) - Houston ultimately has problems putting up points.  They struggled against a Chargers team coming off a bye and will likely face cold weather and Aaron Rodgers.



Kansas City (+4.5) @ Atlanta  -




Atlanta has had a number of close game at home but did take care of business handily against the Cardinals.  Atlanta is still the favorite at home but it shouldn't be easy.


Miami @ Baltimore(-3.5) -







Miami has won 6 straight although they have not beaten a quality team on the road this season.   This is a big game in terms of playoff implications.  The Ravens in the meantime have gone the whole season without scoring 30 or more points, meaning that this game could be a low scoring affair.

Philadelphia (+1) @ Cincinnati - Consider the Eagles early favorites here even if Carson Wentz has struggled.  Since starting 3-0, with 5 touchdowns and no interceptions, Wentz has gone 2-6 and thrown 6 touchdowns and 8 interceptions.  Despite the Eagles road woes, they do have a good defense that can contain the Bengals without AJ Green.  Offensive play calling from the Bengals has been questionable lately.  Plus the Bengals kicking game has been terrible with Mike Nugent.

Buffalo @ Oakland (-3) - Oakland has its first winning season in 14 years.  Buffalo in the meantime, has two wins against relatively weak teams.  Oakland is the favorites although complacency could be an issue.  Led by Derek Carr and Khalil Mack, the Raiders hope to stay atop the AFC.

 Tampa Bay (+3.5) @ San Diego - Both teams came away with impressive wins; Tampa against Seattle and San Diego against Houston.  Jameis Winston has put himself as a candidate for the best young QB in the league and looks to take advantage of San Diego's weak defense.

New York Giants (+6) @ Pittsburgh Steelers -   NY is capable of coming away with a win but the Steelers to come together who have had extra rest off of a Thursday Night game.  The Giants could keep it close with Odell Beckham as a deep threat and a weak Pittsburgh secondary.

Washington (+2.5) @ Arizona -

Certainly a winnable game for Washington- while Palmer has been struggling, Johnson and Fitzgerald have been playing well.  Crowder and Washington could take advantage of the Cardinals poor special teams although Washington may be without Jordan Reed.

Carolina @ Seattle (-7) - Not much went right for the Seahawks in a 14-5 loss.  Still. the Seahawks are seeking revenge in the playoffs last season and the Panthers' have struggled to come away with wins.

Indianapolis (-1.5) @ NY Jets - The Colts should be the slight favorites with Andrew Luck expected to return as well as defensive end Trent Cole.  Questions still remain about Fitzpatrik who threw an interception on the Jets final drive.

Last week against the spread: 11-3-2
Last week straight up - 12-4
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Thursday, November 24, 2016

Week 12 Picks

My picks can also be found on the Sports on the Hill Podcast which is found at the 1h:50min mark. (A few of them may have changed!)


By wins and losses, Washington is the best team that Dallas has beaten so far this season.  


Minnesota @ Detroit (-1) -


While Adrian Peterson may return in December, their running game at the present remains ineffective.  The Vikings did a good job in pressuring Carson Palmer.  However, the Lions are still favorites because Stafford is better than Palmer and Detroit has a better o-line as well as physical runner in Theo Riddick

The Lions have won three straight on Thanksgiving, outscoring their opponents 119-41 at Ford Field. The Vikings have never lost a Thanskgiving game although they are playing their first Thanksgiving game in Detroit since 1995.
Washington (+7) @ Dallas - Dallas had a 4 point win over Washington in week 2; nobody has played Dallas closer since.  Elliot has only gotten better since as Elliot two worst weeks were against Washington and New York to start the season.  Dalls is rounding into shape with Dez Bryant back.  It is a rivalry game that is already taking affect as Sua Cravens recently blocked his mom on Facetime because she is a Cowboys fan.

Despite the short rest, expect a game that could go either way between division rivals with Dallas a slight favorite because of homefield.  While Washington could keep it close, they may be challenged by containing Dallas's running game as well as pressuring Dak Prescott into some mistakes.  It is a rivalry game where anything can happen so do not count Washington out who has now won 2 straight games coming out of their bye week.


Pittsburgh (-7) @ Indianapolis - The Colts are suddenly streaking after a couple of wins against the Titans and Packers who are below average.  The Steelers are reeling a bit even they did come away with a good win albeit against low Browns team.  Still, the Colts may be in for a long game without Andrew Luck.  Look for the Steelers to win comfortably here.


Tennessee (-4.5) @ Chicago -  Titans did struggle defensively against the Colts but the Bears are running out of offensive weapons with the young promising tight end Zach Miller being lost for the season and will also be without Jay Cutler.  Mariotta looking to get back piling up points against a Bears defense that is hit or miss.

Jacksonville @ Buffalo (-6) - Despite losing Robert Woods to a knee injury, the Bills look like they can still run the ball especially if McCoy manages to play this week coming off of a successful surgery.   The Jaguars did play the Lions close but  fell apart at the end.  The Jaguars are already talking about changing their coach.  5 of their losses have been by 7 points or less although things could get messy in the cold weather.

Cincinnati @ Baltimore (-3) - Giovanni Bernard is lost for the season and AJ Green is week to week.  Ravens blow an early lead to the Cowboys as they are susceptible to not having enough offensive weapons.  Justin Tucker is the last kicker who hasn't missed a field goal

Arizona @ Atlanta (-4)

Cardinals have also lost a number of games due to special teams.  Atlanta is coming off a bye as they looked to rectify some of their mistakes against an Eagles team.


New York Giants (-7) @ Cleveland - Cleveland has officially been eliminated from playoff contention.  The Giants look to keep pace in the compettive NFC East.


St. Louis @ New Orleans (-6) - Not a good sign for the Rams that Goff struggled even if it was rainy weather and against a good Miami defense.  The Saints put it together in the 2nd half against the Panthers to make it a close game, so expect them to play better at home.

San Francisco @ Miami (-7) - the 49ers showed some fight against the Patriots even though they eneded up losing by double digits.

San Diego @ Houston (+1.5) - San Diego is coming off a bye and the Texans have had a short week.  That being said,  the Texans are still at home and the Chargers have blown a number of winnable games.

Seattle (-6) @ Tampa Bay - Seattle is playing some good football although their defense will be tested more this week since the Eagles did not have any viable receivers to help out Carson Wentz.

Seattle appears to be running better as Wilson ankle has healed as he caught a pass at wide receiver



Carolina @ Oakland (-3) - Oakland is one of the hottest teams in football.  Even if Carolina is coming off a win, they almost gave it up in the closing minutes of the game against hte Sainst.

Kansas City @ Denver (-4.5) - Denver is the early favorite here because of their defense and ability to limit Alex Smith's passing game

New England @ NY Jets (+7.5) - The Jets managed to beat the Patriots last year at home but even if the Patriots defense is struggling, it is hard to imagine that the Patriots will not win if Fitzpatrick as the starting QB.  That being said, the Jets are coming off a bye.

Green Bay (+4) @ Philadelphia
The Packers Being considered an elite team might be over.  And the Eagles have won all of their home games this season.  Aaron Rodgers has still been playing excellent football.  The Eagles receivers have been bad;  There is right now a petition to oust Nelson Agholor.   That being said, the Packers secondary has somehow been even worse as they have given up a huge number of deep throws against Washington last week.  This game could come down to the wire because of the Packers playmaking ability.

Last week against the spread: 9-4-1
Last week straight up - 11-3
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Thursday, November 17, 2016

Week 11 NFL Picks

My picks can also be found on the Sports on the Hill Podcast which is found at the 1h:47min 45 sec mark. (A few of them may have changed!)

Questions remain whether the Broncos stepped out of bounds in a game deciding play

New Orleans (+3.5) @ Carolina - Both teams had tough losses to AFC West teams and are evenly matched.  The Saints did manage to beat the Panthers in a shootout.  The Thursday night game generally favors the home team still the Saints are 2 blocked kicks away from being a six win team.  The Panthers have no sympathy given that 4 of their 6 losses were by a field goal or less.  
Pittsburgh (-8) @ Cleveland- The Steelers could not protect Big Ben at opportune times nor could they slow down Dallas's running attack.   Cleveland has been awful and Pittsburgh needs this game to stay alive in the postseason.

Baltimore (+7) @ Dallas - Dallas officially boasts the best record in the NFL.  While the Ravens have had time to prepare like Cleveland, the lack of a running game may hurt the Ravens here.  Still, the Ravens are a top defensive team and could keep it within the spread.


The Lions on a bye take the division lead
Jacksonville (+6.5) @ Detroit - Detroit is on a hot tear right now and watched all their division opponents lose on a bye and now find themselves in first place.  Jacksonville does not appear to be running the all enough and their latest loss to the Texans may have put head coach Gus Bradley on the hot seat.  I have the lions favored here although the Lions do tend to keep games close at home like in their win against Washington an OT loss to the Titans).

Tennessee @ Indianapolis Colts (-3) - The Titans offense is rolling having put up at least 35 points in their last 3 games.  The Titans did lose to the Colts though in week 7 34 to 26 and the Colts are this time at home and coming off a bye so I would consider the Colts slight favorites.

Buffalo Bills (4.5) @ Cincinnati - I would consider the Bills the slight favorites as they are coming off a bye.  On a side note Trump may not have been president if he bought the Buffalo Bills. Cincinnati will be coming off a short week against a Buffalo team with a scrambling QB decent wideouts and LeSean McCoy.

Arizona @ Minnesota (-2) - Arizona's offense is kind of anemic at this point. Even if they scored 20+ points it was still against the Cardinals.  The Vikings in the meantime may also be discouraged after failing to score in the 2nd half against the redskins.  I would consider this game a pure toss-up and would favor the Vikings at home but it may not be pretty to watch.  Still the Vikings have the worst defense which may lead me for them to get a close victory here.

Miami @ St. Louis (+1.5) -

Both teams are coming off road victories.  The Dolphins quality of their wins have been better against playoff quality team as including the Bills and the Chargers.  The Dolphins commitment to the run (ranked 6th in yards per game) will be the key in coming up on top.  Look for the Rams to get a boost from QB Jared Goff; the #1 overall pick from 2016 draft makes his first start.

Tampa Bay (+7.5) @ Kansas City -


Both teams are coming off impressive wins.   The Bucs blew out the Bears handily while the Chiefs snuck away with a win against the Panthers.  Gholston has been key in manning Tampa's defense.  The Cheifs are still an excellent home team although they have had a few close wins against the Saints and Jaguars After New England's loss to the Seahawks, the Chiefs are currently in 1st.  Safety Eric Berry could make life difficult for Tampa who had a 42 yard TD.


Chicago Bears @ New York Giants (-6.5) - The Giants want to keep their playoff hopes alive after this Monday night game.  The Bears also lose Alshon Jeffery for four games.  Josh Howard is the lone bright spot who is averaging more yards per carry than Ezekiel Elliot.

Patriots (-13) @ San Francisco - Tom Brady returns home against the team of his youth.  Look for the Patriots to take out some frustration against the 49ers.  San Francisco did put together a good effort against the Cardinals which could give the 49ers some hope in keeping it somewhat close although Arizona's offense is nowhere nearly as good as the Patriots.  The 49ers may have had a few silver linings such as not giving up a 100 yard rusher and a 3 point loss in their last game.

Philadelphia @ Seattle (-6.5) -  The Eagles remain undefeated at home but will travel to a Seattle team that appears to have found their footing after a win against the Patriots.  I would be worried about a bit of a letdown from the Seahawks given they had a lot riding on getting revenge against the New England Patriots but Seattle homefield, Wentz struggles on the road (they are currently 1-3) might be too much if Seattle can find the creativity on offense that they showed.

Green Bay @ Washington (-2) - Washington offense line held up well enough without Trent Williams.  The Packers offense appeared to find their footing late against the Titans but it was not enough especially after a dismal showing by their defense who is now 0-3 without Clay Matthews.  Look for Washington to be motivated against this Packers team that eliminated them from the playoffs.

Houston @ Oakland (-5.5) (in Mexico City) - Oakland coming off a bye.  Mack should pressure Brock Osweiler into some bad throws.  Houston may be winning the AFC South but has not been tested against a quality team.

Week 10 against the spread: 6-8
Week 10 straight up: 5-9
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Thursday, November 10, 2016

Week 10 Picks

My picks can also be found on the Sports on the Hill Podcast which is found at the 1h:42min 45 sec mark.

Cleveland @ Baltimore (-7.5) -
Despite using 7 different QBs since his final start,
Johnny Manziel is still the last Cleveland Browns qb to win a game.
Baltimore is coming off an impressive win.  Cleveland is struggling because they are shorthanded.  A short week has typically been advantageous to the home team.

Kansas City (-2.5) @ Carolina - Consider the Chiefs favorites here given there impressive road wins.  The Panthers have won 2 straight but questions still remain about their offense which only mustered 13 points against the Rams.

Denver @ New Orleans (-3) - Saints have homefield while the Broncos offense has struggled lately.  

LA Rams @ NY Jets (-1.5) - Jets at home.  Rams on the road, both have week QBs, the jets have more offensive weapons, (Forte, Marshall) especially if Gurley is questionable to play.  

Aaron Rodgers calls out teammates; says squirrel was more exciting that the Packers
Green Bay (-2.5) @ Tennessee- Packers are coming off a disappointing loss. The Titans offense is playing well, could be a 1 score game but look for the Packers to respond with a win.

Atlanta (-2) @ Philadelphia -

Only three QBs have had a 120+ passer rating 3+ times this season: Matt Stafford (3 in 8 games), Matt Ryan (3 in 8), and Tom Brady (4 in 4).
— r/patriots (@rslashpatriots) October 31, 2016

Atlanta's wideouts might be too much for the eagles secondary. The eagles offense has not done a good job protecting Wentz since the suspension of Lane Johnson.  

Minnesota @ Washington (-2.5) - Washington is coming off a bye but will be without Trent Williams.   Minnesota is struggling as Sam Bradford has reverted to the mean.

Houston (+1.5) @ Jacksonville- Houston is the slight favorites coming off a bye and given how inconsistent the Jaguars offense has been.

Dallas @ Pittsburgh (-2.5) - Assuming the Big Ben can shake off the rust that he showed against the ravens, the Steelers have a good chance to upset the Cowboys given their ability to stop the run. It will be critical for the Steelers to force some turnovers.

Chicago (-1.5) @ Tampa Bay - Chicago is coming off a bye and has a number of young offensive weapons (Howard/Meredith) to pair with Cutler.  Tampa is struggling due to injuries to running backs and defense as well as inconsistent play by Winston.

Miami (+4.5) @ San Diego - San Diego with Rivers should exploit Miami's defense.  The Dolphins could be due for a letdown after a win but could keep it close.

San Francisco (+13.5) @ Arizona - Arizona is coming off a bye and the 49ers with Kapernick are still struggling.  Still, the 49ers could keep it close against the offensively challenged Cardinals.

Seattle @ New England (-7.5) - Tom Brady looks to get revenge against Seattle who beat new England back in 2013.  The Seahawks offense has been too inconsistent. 

Cincinnati @ New York Giants - Both have strong wide receivers.  Neither defense has been great.  The Bengals boast a better running game, offensive line and are coming off a bye week.  it will ultimately come down to which QB, Dalton or Manning have less mental errors.

Last week against the spread- 8-4-1
Last week straight up- 9-4
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Thursday, November 3, 2016

Week 9 Picks

My picks can also be found on the Sports on the Hill Podcast which is found at the 1h:35min 45 sec mark.

Big Ben looks to come back against the Ravens
His status remains questionable

Atlanta (-3.5) @ Tampa Bay - Atlanta looks for revenge against the Bucs who beat them earlier this season.  The Bucs defense have suffered more injuries this time around

Detroit (+6) @ Minnesota - A rivalry game that could be close especially since Minnesota's offense is struggling.  

Pittsburgh(-1) @ Baltimore - Big Ben is expected to play.  

NY Jets @ Miami (-3) - Miami coming off a bye and have already beaten the Bills at home. 

Dallas (-7) @ Cleveland- Dallas is streaking and the Browns may be one of the worst teams in football.

Jacksonville @ Kansas City (-7.5) - Blake Bortles has been inconsistent and Kansas City could pressure him into some turnovers.  Te Chiefs methodical offense could get it done, although the Chiefs did lose Charcandrick West to a concussion.   Wideout Tyreek Evans and Kelce are coming off big games and look to exploit a pourous Jacksonville defense that gave up 36 points last week.  

Philadelphia @ New York (-2.5) - The Giants are coming off a bye and look to exploit a relatively weak Eagles secondary and having Odell Beckham doesn't hurt.  The Giants defense only gave up 10 points last time against the Rams although will probably face a tougher test against the Eagles.

Carolina (-3) @ Los Angeles - 
Cam Newton has yet to draw a roughing the passer
penalty over the past 2 seasons



Carolina rebounded off the bye.  The Rams defense could make it close by pressuring Newton into some mistakes.  Still, Case Keenum hasn't been an average starting quarterback at this point as teams will continue to gear up to stop Gurley until Keenum becomes a more consistent quarterback.  

New Orleans (-3.5) @ San Francisco - The Saints are coming off a really good win against a Seattle team.  While the Saints have lost some really weird games this year and San Francisco is coming off a bye, the Saints should come up on top.

Tennessee @ San Diego (-4.5)  - The Chargers look to rebound from a tough loss against a good Broncos team.  I would consider Philips able to get it going against a below average Titans defense although the Chargers should be wary of the Titans who is 3rd in the NFL in rushing.  The Chargers' Travis Benjamin's status is uncertain

Indianapolis @ Green Bay (-7.5)  - Green Bay is looking to come up with a win after a tough loss to Atlanta down the stretch.  Indianopolis may have more success offensively against Green Bay than they did against the Chiefs but there defense is still a mess.

Denver @ Oakland - Denver should be the favorite here, Oakland should not be nearly as prolific as they were against an injury riddled Tampa team.  

Buffalo (+7) @ Seattle  - Both teams look to overcome tough losses. Seattle lost a shootout to the Saints and are now winless in their last two weeks.  Buffalo in the meantime couldn't defeat Tom Brady and the Patriots and now their chances of winning the division look small.  Seattle goes back home but it is hard to say how much separation they can create against a solid Bills' defense.  
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Thursday, October 27, 2016

Week 8 Picks

I can be heard making my picks on the Sports on the Hill Podcast at 1:45 minute mark.  You can also listen to hear more about Washington DC sports.  http://bit.ly/2egxTKG

Blake Bortles looks to correct his throwing mechanics
and end Jacksonville's losing streak

Jacksonville (+3) @ Tennesee - Blake Bortles has struggled over the past few weeks.  That being said, the Jaguars will face a relatively weak opponent in the Titans who currently have the 28th passing attack in the league.  The Jaguars will need to protect the edge from Orakpo, who has 7 sacks this season, but their defense is strong enough to slow down the Titans' rushing attack.

Washington @ Cincinnati (-3) -



 Kirk Cousins played well but at the end of the day the Redskins offense has been a little to mistake prone including Matt Jones who fumbled the ball twice, and Kirk Cousins. Cincinnati is 2-0 against teams below .500 but has yet to defeat a team above .500 this season.  Still, the Bengals did get back Tyler Eifert who should help the Bengals redzone offense.  Washington may or may not get Josh Norman or Jordan Reed back.  How the Redskins will contain AJ Green without Josh Norman is unclear.  Jeremy Hill could also have a big game who is currently averaging 5.2 yards a carry and could feast on Washington's relatively weak run defense.

Cardinals @ Carolina (-3) - Arizona's offense is pretty ugly and just lost Jaron Brown with a torn ACL.   Carolina is also coming off a bye and did appear to find some rhtym in the 4th quarter where they scored 23 points in the 4th quarter, albeit in a blowout loss to the Falcons.  This is rematch of the NFC championship game.  Both are a combined 4-8-1 through week 7; last year both were 29-4 for the season.

Justin Forsett goes against his former team.
Detroit (+2.5) @ Houston - The Lions did appear to come away with a win.  Houston QB play has been inconsistent.    Detroit's top corner Darisu Slay could be out which does make them vulnerable to Houston's vertical threats including DeAndre Hopkins and Todd Fuller.

Seattle (-3) @ New Orleans - Seattle is fortunate and unfortunate to come away with a tie in Arizona.   Luckily for them, the Saints defense is nowhere near as good as the Cardinals  and Seattle should be motivated to come away with a win after a dismal performance.  The Saints offense should not be taken lightly as  Drew Brees has thrown for an average of over 400 yards over his last two weeks.

Kansas City (-2.5) @ Colts - Kansas City - Both teams are coming off wins.  The Chiefs will have to contend with Luck and T.Y. Hilton but the Colts offensive line injuries are still troublesome.  Alex Smith might not be able to vertically test the Colts but could do enough especially since the Colts are one of the worst defensive teams in the NFL.

NY Jets (-3) @ Cleveland - Sources: Based on initial MRI, belief is that #Jets QB Geno Smith tore his ACL. Incredible. Players in the locker room are learning about it.

The curse of injured Cleveland QBs continues as Terrell Pryor suffers a hamstring injury.     The Jets in the meantime appear to have lost Geno Smith for the season.  Provided that Ryan Fitzpatrick does not have a turnover fest like he did when he threw 6 interceptions against the Chiefs, the Jets should come away with a win.

New England (-6) @ Buffalo 

The Patriots look to get some tablet revenge.  Last time around the Patriots were shut out but they were also without Tom Brady.  Rex Ryan  vs the Patriots is 9-4 so the Patriots could expect a close game but even so, the Patriots should correct the mistakes that they made last time around.

Oakland  @ Tampa Bay- Oakland and Tampa Bay both came away with road wins last week.  Oakland is looking for its second win in two weeks in the state of Florida

San Diego (+4.5) @ Denver - I like the Chargers here given their ability to come away with quality wins against the Falcons and Broncos. Although they will have to avoid giving up special teams touchdowns like they did in their last matchup.

Green Bay @ Atlanta - The Falcons have a superior offense all around in terms of offensive weapons especially given the injuries that Green Bay has suffered.  Of course Atlanta's defense has been nothing to brag about as they managed to give up lead to the Chargers late although it will be interesting to see how Rodgers can play on the road.

Dallas (-4.5) @ Philadelphia - Dallas is coming off a bye.  While Philadelphia is coming off an impressive win at home against Minnesota, the Cowboys offense should be a tougher test.  Dak Presscot should not be turnover prone, especially with a consistent running game from Elliot. Dez Bryant has also returned to practice.

Minnesota @ Chicago (+5.5)- Jay Cutler is returning with new offensive weapons and look to keep it close in a division rivalry game.

RECORD FOR WEEK 7: 9-6

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Tuesday, October 25, 2016

NBA Preview and Over/Under for the 2016-17 Season

Here is my preview and rankings for the 2016-17 season.  I was 16-13-1 last time around and 4-1 in my locks for the 2014-15 season.

 Eastern Conference


Cleveland looks like the favorites to get back to the finals\

1. Cleveland Cavaliers (56.5-OVER/LOCK) - Cleveland is coming off a championship win and might get pressure from Boston to win the conference.  With a healthy year from Kyrie and a bulked up Kevin Love should put Cleveland on top.


Al Horford ended up choosing Boston
over Washington

2. Boston Celtics (52.5-OVER)-  Boston other than the Golden State Warriors appear to be the big offseason winners since they acquired Al Horford and lottery pick Jaylen Brown.  The Celtics also return Isiah Thomas and plethora of young players including Marcus Smart and Jae Crowder.  The Celtics could be a player at the trade deadline.


Toronto's backcourt was a big reason why
they made it to the Eastern Conference Finals

 3. Toronto Raptors (50-OVER) - I have Toronto taking a slight step back because of the loss of Biyombo but could still be above 50 wins provided that they have a healthy DeMarre Carroll who missed much of the 2015-16 season .


Dwight Howard returns back to Atlanta
(via Atlanta Hawks)

4. Atlanta (43.5-OVER) - Atlanta may be slightly worse than last season due to losing Al Horford and Jeff Teague but may minimize the loss a bit with the acquisition of Dwight Howard.  Aging Korver could be problematic but his flaws may not show up until the postseason.

5. Indiana (45.5-OVER) - Indiana has put together some interesting moves including trading for Jeff Teague and acquiring AL Jeferson.  I have the Pacers gaining a bit of ground in the East although they may have to gel a bit with Coach Nate McMillan.


Washington hopes to make the playoffs
after missing it last year

6. Washington  Wizards (42.5-OVER) - Washington does get back a healthy John Wall and Bradley Beal, Otto Porter look to take a step forward.  I would say their frontcourt depth is slightly better in years past although they may take a bit of a hit coming out of the gates with the injury to Ian Mahimi.
Porzingus hopes to take the Knicks back to the playoffs
(via SI)sa

7. New York Knicks (40.5-OVER) - The Knicks could potentially make a relatively deep playoff run.  They are relying a bit on injurery riddled stars including Rose and Noah to find their mix, Anthony will likely have a great year based off his Olympic play, and Porzingus could become a better player.  That being said injuries tod happen and they still may lack enough outside shooting which is why I do not have them in the top half of the conference.


8. Charlotte (40.5-UNDER) - The Hornets did lose a few pieces this offseason including Jeremy Lin, Coutney Lee, and Al Jefferson which should make them slightly worse but did retain Nicolas Batum. They also got Roy Hibbert, Bellinelli, and Sessions coming of the bench.

Reggie Jackson will miss the beginning of the season

9. Detroit (44-UNDER-LOCK) - Detroit was a solid playoff team last year that gave Cleveland a relatively tough test until their bench came in.  Now they seemed to have added an intereting bench piece in Boban althoug I still think they may suffer a bit with Reggie Jackson out.

10. Chicago Bulls (40.5-UNDER)- Made a splash with Wade but did lose key pieces including Rose and Noah and didn't no much to parlay that into a spread offense unless Rondo, Wade, and MCW have career years.  I did like their acquisition of Valentine.  Also lost Pau Gasol in free agency but could get a boost from 2nd year player Bobby Portis who is nice energy gu but not a great defensive player, seems liek a Kenneth Faried type of player.

11. Miami Heat (36-OVER) - Miami did lose a lot of key pieces last season including Wade, Bosh, Johnson, and Deng.  But they did re-sign Whiteside and Dragic could benefit more with the basketball in his hands.  Plus Spolestra

12. Orlando (37.5-UNDER) - Orlando has a lot of young talent Payton and Mario Herzonja Fournier, and add Serge Ibaka and Bismack Biyombo to a front court that already had Vucevic and Aaron Gordon.  While Orlando should improve a bit from last season, they did have to give up Oladipo and still do not really have a go to option down the stretch.
Giannis Antetokounpo could be the Bucks' 6'9 point guard
(via Bleacher Report)

13. Milwaulkee (33-UNDER) - Milwaulkee has an ecletic  mix of  tall springy players including Antetokoumpo and Jabari Parker and added Dellevedova but they did lose Kris Middleton for 6 months which hurts their playoff chances.  I suppose they did manage to parlay MCW into Tony Snell although questions remain where the Bucks can find their offense.

14. Brooklyn (21.5-UNDER) - I suppose Brooklyn will get a few more wins than last year based on Jeremy Lin returning back and reuniting with head coach Josh Atkinson which will serve as a consolation as the 2nd worst team in the East.

Number 1 overall Ben Simmons is injured
which could slow down the 76ers
(via Sportsgrid)

15. Philadelphia (24.5) (UNDER-LOCK) - I think Philadelphia improves with better point guard play and from Joel Embiid, although the possibility of Simmons not being healthy solidifies them as the worst team in the NBA.


WESTERN CONFERENCE
Kevin Durant teams up with the team that beat him

1. Golden State Warriors (66.5-OVER-LOCK) - The Warriors probably improved the biggest weakness of the last season which was finding someone who could hit open jumpers instead of Harrison Barnes.  The Warriors did lose a bit in terms of big men including Bogut and Ezeli but did acquire Pachulia and David West.  I imagine the Warriors will also use Kevin Durant at the 4 and Draymond at center more times this season.  I think that the Warriors may rest on the laurels a bit given that I don't anticipate San Antonio finished with 67 wins with the departure of Tim Duncan.

The Spurs say goodbye to Tim Duncan

2. San Antonio (57.5-OVER-LOCK) - Once again the Spurs will most likely be the 2nd best team in the West but with a few caveats.  They are losing Tim Duncan to retirement who was a candidate for defensive player of the year as well Boris Diaw off the bench.  The Spurs did acquire Pau Gasol to fill in the void.  While the Spurs offense should be fine, they may have trouble being as effective defensively at times.  Tony Parker is also getting older and the Spurs may have to think about finding someone else to facilitate the offense. Of course Kawai Leonard is still be in the conversation as a top 5 player in this league so the Spurs should still take care of business in the regular season.

The Clippers hope to contend
but the road ahead looks tough

3. LA Clippers (54-UNDER)  - I still have the Clippers as a top 3 team in the NBA but I anticipate they might stagnate a bit if injuries to Paul and Griffin are significant.  Their starting five is still one of the best in the NBA although perhaps their bench play may suffer a bit as Jamal Crawford ages.  Speights is an interesting additon and should keep them in games.  Paul Pierce also appears to not have anything left in the tank although.  Alan Anderson could be an interesting pickup granted he has been dealing with injuries which forced him to miss most of the 2015-16 season.




4. Minnesota Timberwolves (41.5-OVER-LOCK) - The Timberwolves expect to take major steps forward with Tom Thibbeadea, really good young players including Towns, Wiggins, and Dunn.  Their defense should be much better with coach Thibs.


James Harden should thrive 
with D'Antoni

5. Houston Rockets (44-OVER) - Houston did lose Dwight Howard but did add Coach D'Antoni.  I expect the Rockets to be a more fun uptempo team that will win by outscoring opponents, of course they will have problems defensively but it should be good enough to get them into the playoffs.

6. Portland Trail Blazers (44.5-UNDER) - he Trailblazer did have a nice season last year by getting to the second round.  That being said, they did get to the 2nd round mainly because the Clippers suffered injuries.   It may take time for their offseason additions of Evan Turner and Festuz Ezeli to mesh and might not meet their lofty expectations although I have them still making the playoffs

7. Oklahoma City Thunder (45.5-UNDER)- At the end of day, losing Kevin Durant is a big loss for them and there will be some growing pains for them.  I suppose Victor Oladipo is an interesting number 2 option to pair with Westbrook although the Thunder did lose a nice piece in Ibaka.  People may want OKC to be competitive so they match up with Golden State but they are long shots to win a title.

8. Utah Jazz (47-UNDER) - Utah did add a nice mix of veteran talent including Boris Diaw and Joe Johnson.  Shelvin Mack was interesting addition at the trade deadline.  Bottomline is that the Jazz don't have a bonafide scorer even if they have Rudy Gobert, the eifel tower, keeping them in games.

9.  Memphis (42.5-OVER) - Memphis gets their two stars back Mike Conley and Marc Gasol which should make them competitive albeit they will have to do it under a new head coach.   Chandler Parsons is an interesting addition that should add playmaking but has not been the same player that he was in Houston due to multiple injuries.

10. Dallas Mavericks (40.5-UNDER) - At the end of the day, the Mavericks still have Dirk and at worst Barnes is a solid rotation player and they also acquired Andrew Bogut.  Things could get dicey if Dirk Nowitzki ages significantly but Rick Carlilse has continue to prove that he is one of the top defensive coaches in the NBA.

11. Denver Nuggets (36.5) (OVER) - Denver has a lot of decent players but will still need Mudiaye to develop into a more consistent player from the perimeter.  Jokic is a nice piece who played well for Serbia in the Olympics.

12. New Orleans Pelicans (36.5-UNDER) - Anthony Davis gets some more support with Buddy Hield although it may take time for him to transition to NBA play.  The big concern of course is whether Davis can play an entire season and the Pelicans also lost Ryan Anderson and Eric Gordon in the offseason.

13. Sacramento Kings (32-UNDER) - I think the coaching addition of Dave Joerger is a decent upgrade over George Karl and I expect the Kings to get slightly better defensively by losing Rondo.  It will be interesting to see if Ty Lawson has anything left in the tank.  That being said, it could be a long season for the Kings if they do not get good point guard play.

Brandon Ingram could be ROY

14. LA Lakers (24.5-UNDER) -  - The Lakers are adding some nice young talent including Brandon Ingram and hope for Russell to develop.  Luke Walton will try to lead the Lakers to success, although it did not work out to well for Alvin Gentry.

15. Phoenix (28.5- UNDER-LOCK)-  Still slightly better than the 76ers with Bledsoe and interesting additions including Barbosa, Dudley but at the end of day still a relatively young team with pieces that do not fit well.





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