Sunday, January 24, 2021

Conference Championship Picks


Most offensive turnovers forced this season:
Tampa Bay Buccaneers - 30
Fewest offensive turnovers this season:
Green Bay Packers - 9(via PFF)

Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Green Bay Packers (-3) - While the Bucs did a good job containing Drew Brees last week, the Packers offense presents different challenges.  Aaron Rodgers simply exploited a Rams defense that had shut down Russell Wilson the previous week.   

Tom Brady has had several clutch playoff performances and it would be nice to see it do it without Billi.  That being said, he looked fairly ordinary against the Saints.   Brady is more than capable of playing lights though but he needs guys like Chris Godwin to step up especially with the absence of Antonio Brown.  

The Packers key to victory will be slowing down Fournette while getting Aaron Jones going against a stout Tampa Bay run defense.   No team has seemed to contain Davante Adams either including Jalen Ramsey last week. 


 Buffalo Bills @ Kansas City Chiefs (-3) - The Chiefs and Bills actually played in the playoffs in 1993 when Joe Montana was at the helm as the Bills made it on their way to the 4th super bowl.  The Chiefs are the team with the more established quarterback and playing in his 3rd straight conference championships.  There are concerns for Mahomes though is not only coming off a concussion but also playing with turf toe.  Still, it looks like the Chiefs can exploit the Bills defense enough and Josh Allen has come back a little back to earth against the Ravens although the windy conditions did play a role. 




Divisional- Against the Spread- 4-0
Divisional Straight-Up- 4-0


2021 Playoffs Against the Spread- 6-4 
2021 Playoffs Straight Up- 9-1
2020 Against the Spread- 123-138-6
2020 Week Straight Up - 172-95-1
2020 Locks- 24-24-2

2019 Season Against the Spread- 128-113-3
2019 Season Straight Up- 158-103
2019 Locks - 21-19-2
2020 Postseason against the Spread- 8-3
2020 Postseason Straight Up- 7-4


2018 Season against the Spread- 112-107-7
2018 Season Straight Up- 137-86-2
2018 Locks- 21-16-2

2017-18 Against the Spread- 121-125-7
2017-18 Season Straight Up - 167-92

2016-17 Against the Spread - 141-115-7
2016-17 Straight Up - 101-41

2015-16 Against the Spread - 140-110

Saturday, January 16, 2021

Divisonal Playoffs Round

Josh Allen, Baker Mayfield, and Lamar Jackson 
are representing the 2018 draft class 
All getting their first playoff win last week


Los Angeles Rams @ Green Bay Packers (-7) - The pathway for the Rams to keep it close is to run the ball with Cam Akers on a below average defense.   Aaron Donald should be good to go although Cooper Kupp is still a game-time decision.    Still, the Rams appear to be underrated coming off a nice win slowing down a Seahawks offense.   If Jalen Ramsey can contain DK Metcalf, he can potentially do it to Adams. Still, Jared Goff could struggle with his broken thumb and the cold weather could favor the Packers running game.  Rodgers is great in cold weather games, Davante Adams has been tough to slow down, and Aaron Jones could be unleashed more.

Baltimore Ravens @ Buffalo Bills (-2.5)(LOCK )-  The Ravens did well against the Titans but they were supposed to against a below average Titans defense.  The Bills did not cover against the Colts but still played extremely well considering that Rivers played lights out.  Josh Allen may be able to overcome the Ravens blitzing defense.  The Ravens can keep this came within a touchdown.

Cleveland Browns (+10)Kansas City Chiefs - The Browns were fortunate in the win against the Steelers.  That being said, the Chiefs have not been taking care of business either in putting away opponents by a comfortable margin. Jarvis Landry has been a bit underrated as top catching receiver plus the Browns can keep it close with their running game.   

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+3) @ New Orleans Saints - The Saints did not play that well against the Bears but go against a division rival that they have handily taken of.  That being said, the Bucs have had more continuity with Brady in Rob Arians system, Rob Gronkowski and Antonio Brown getting back into shape.    Drew Brees not playing at the top of his game makes me nervous for the Saints to perform optimally although Kamara is more than capable of carrying the load.  


Divisional- Against the Spread- 2-4
Divisional Straight-Up- 5-1
2020 Against the Spread- 119-138-6
2020 Week Straight Up - 168-95-1
2020 Locks- 23-24-2

2019 Season Against the Spread- 128-113-3
2019 Season Straight Up- 158-103
2019 Locks - 21-19-2
2020 Postseason against the Spread- 8-3
2020 Postseason Straight Up- 7-4


2018 Season against the Spread- 112-107-7
2018 Season Straight Up- 137-86-2
2018 Locks- 21-16-2

2017-18 Against the Spread- 121-125-7

2017-18 Season Straight Up - 167-92

2016-17 Against the Spread - 141-115-7
2016-17 Straight Up - 101-41

2015-16 Against the Spread - 140-110

Saturday, January 9, 2021

Wild Card Weekend

 Indianapolis Colts @ Buffalo Bills (-6.5) - The Buffalo Bills are playing some of the best football in recent weeks.  While the Colts have been solid over the last few weeks, they are at a disadvantage playing outdoors against Buffalo.  Phillip Rivers at this stage of his career is unreliable.  Jonathan Taylor could get it going against the Bills run defense but it could be tough to contain the Bills high octane offense.  


Los Angeles Rams @ Seattle Seahawks (-3)-  The roadmap for the Rams to win this game is to use a ball control offense with Cam Akers against a relatively poor Seattle defense.  That being said, the Seahawks still have Russell Wilson who should do enough against an Aaron Donald led Rams defense.  

Tampa Buccaneers @ Washington Football Team (-9) - Washington has the pass rush to get to Brady who has struggled against above average defense including 

  • 20-19 loss to the Bears
  • 25-23 win against the Giants
  • 27-24 loss against the Rams
  • 27-24 loss against the Chiefs
Tampa's recent wins against the Vikings, Falcons, and Lions over weeks 14-17 have not addressed the concern that the Brady can operate well against teams that provide him pressure.  

That being said, Washington's offense isn't exactly a juggernaut and do need to keep Tampa's offense off the field to provide themselves with a chance of victory.   With Alex Smith's calf injury acting up, the Football Team may go to Taylor Heinekie who compiled a great stat line against the Panthers but was accrued against a Panthers team playing a prevent defense.  Still, Smith struggled a lot with 2 interceptions against the Eagles in the 2nd half and even had trouble handing off the football. Running back Antonio Gibson and wide out Terry McLaurin are both banged up but could provide a much needed spark.  

The last two home team underdogs that were 8 point underdogs have won including the Seattle Seahawks lead by Marshawn Lynch and the Tim Tebow's Broncos against the Steelers.  It may be hard for Washington to pull out a victory but the homefield in Washington with Chase Young leading the defensive front could be enough to at least make this game competitive.  


Baltimore Ravens (-3) @ Tennessee Titans - This is a more winnable game for the Ravens. While the Ravens lost earlier in the season in OT, the Ravens were up 21-10 before Lamar Jackson threw a better pass.  Lamar has looked better over the last 4 weeks since coming off of Covid. Plus JK Dobbins could get it going against a below average Titans defense.  The Ravens do need to bottle up Henry or they could be in trouble

Chicago Bears (+10) @ New Orleans Saints  -  While Sean Payton should have an excellent game plan, the Bears have been no slouches in recent weeks.  David Montgomery has hit it into gear recently plus the Bears offense has been competent in recent weeks other than the Green Bay Packers who routinely take care of their division rival.  The Bears did manage to take the Saints to overtime earlier in the season and the Bears didn't even play that well with Nick Foles under center.  Of course, Trubisky being as inconsistent as he is makes this a nerve racking proposition to complete the upset.  

Cleveland Browns @ Pittsburgh Steelers (-6) - The Steelers are one of those teams that matchup really well against the Browns given that they can slow down the run.  The Browns will also be without their head coach Stefanski. The Steelers just seem to have the Browns number.  

Week 17 Against the Spread- 7-9
Week 17 Straight-Up- 13-3
Week 17 Locks - 1-2
2020 Against the Spread- 117-134-6
2020 Week Straight Up - 163-94-1
2020 Locks- 23-24-2

Sunday, January 3, 2021

NFL Week 17 Picks

 Myles Garrett gets to lineup against Mason Rudolph again


Jacksonville Jaguars (+15) @ Indianapolis Colts - The Jaguars pulled off an improbable upset in week 1.  That being said, the Jaguars are going to be resting their rookie running back James Robinson although they could do enough to keep it close in garbage time.    

Tennessee Titans  @ Houston Texans (+7) -  The Titans are more motivated to win against the Texans ass they are playing for the division.  However, the Titans almost lost to the Texans earlier in the season in an overtime struggle.  It's hard to be too confident in the Texans covering though given that they just lost to the Bengals.  

Atlanta Falcons @ Tampa Buccaneers (-7) - The Buccaneers are most likely locked into the #5 seed.  Still, the Falcons could struggle against a Bucs team that usually dominates lesser opponents that do not generate a pass rush.  

Dallas Cowboys (-1.5)(LOCK) @ New York Giants - The Giants have homefield but the Cowboys appear to be playing at a higher level.  The Giants could end up finishing 1st, 2nd, 3rd, or 4th depending on today's games.  

New York Jets @ New England Patriots (-3) - The Jets are playing significantly better with a 2 game winning streak but it is hard to envision he Patriots completely folding against the Jets which would give them a 4 game losing streak.  

Los Angeles Chargers  @ Kansas City Chiefs (+5.5)  - The Chargers surprisingly kept it close in an overtime loss when Herbert started.  With Chiefs resting their starters, the Chargers should win although they have a habit of keeping games closer than they need to even against lesser competition.  

Minnesota Vikings (-3) @ Detroit Lions - Dalvin Cook is out but the Lions have really struggled with Stafford banged up.  The Vikings passing attack should do enough against a below average Lions defense.  

Pittsburgh Steelers (+9.5) @ Cleveland Brown - The Steelers are resting their starters although the Browns for whatever the reason have struggled against Pittsburgh recently which makes this far from a lock from being a blow out.

Baltimore Ravens @ Cincinnati Bengals (-13) - The Bengals have surprisingly won 2 games in a row. The Ravens still take care of lesser competition although perhaps the margin of victory could be less than predicted in a road game for the Ravens.

Green Bay Packers @ Chicago Bears (+4.5) - The Packers do want to lock up homefield against the Bears, but the Bears are playing well and looking to play themselves into an opportunity for a playoff spot.  After a slow start, David Montgomery has been playing well and Mitchell Trubisky has looed like a decent quarterback since being re-inserted as a starter.   

New Orleans Saints @ Carolina Panthers (+5.5) - The Saints will be without their running back corps so it could be a tougher road for them to win.  The Panthers offense did struggle last week against Washington, although they could play better against the Saints.  

Miami Dolphins (-1)(LOCK) @ Buffalo Bills- The Dolphins kept it surprisingly close against the Bills in week 2 in a 3 point loss although the game didn't feel that close and it could be tough for the Dolphins to play well in the cold weather.  The Bills will choose to rest their starters if the Browns end up taking care of the Steelers.  

Seattle Seahawks @ San Francisco 49ers (+7) - Seattle has had trouble putting away opponents due to Wilson struggling and the 49ers usually get up to play their division rival.  

Arizona Cardinals (+.5) @ LA Rams - With Jared Goff and Cooper Kupp out, the Cardinals should have enough talent to move past the Rams 

Las Vegas Raiders (-2.5) @ Denver Broncos- The Raiders passing attack and running game gives them the slight edge over the Broncos.  

Washington Football Team (-4.5)(LOCK) @ Philadelphia Eagles - Washington overcame a 17-0 deficit in week 1 after a great halftime speech by Haskins who was just cut.  The Eagles were also without key pieces including Miles Sanders and Lane Johnson but may be without even more pieces in a meaningless game for them.  


Week 16 Against the Spread- 8-7-1
Week 16 Straight-Up- 12-4
Week 16 Locks - 2-0
2020 Against the Spread- 110-125-6
2020 Week Straight Up - 150-91-1
2020 Locks- 22-22-2