Saturday, December 24, 2022

2022 Week 16 NFL Picks

Philadelphia Eagles (+5) @ Dallas Cowboys - Jalen Hurts is out but Gardner Minshew makes his debut. The key of the game for the Eagles will be is if they can slow down Dallas's running attack. 

Seattle Seahawks (+9.5) @ Kansas City Chiefs  - Seattle will be without Tyler Lockett. Geno will likely bounce back against the Chiefs defense although Kansas City's offense has been on fire as Mahomes looks to make his MVP case.


New York Giants @ Minnesota Vikings (- 3.5) - Kirk Cousins has struggled against the Giants although the Vikings seem to just manage to do enough to win.


Washington Commanders (+7) @ San Francisco 49ers - The officials may have caused Washington to lose although a few errors by Talor Heinikckie also didn't help. The Commanders will get Chase Young back. While the 49ers will be without Deebo Samuels, they will still hae Christian McCaffrey and a pretty good 4ers defense. Washington's defense will need to key in on Purdy an it will be important for Heinickie to play well enough to convert key opportunities while limiting turnovers.

 

Cincinnati (-3.5) @ New England  - The Patriots may respond with a much better effort than they had against the Raiders although the Bengals seems to be playing really well even overcoming a huge deficit to the Tampa Bay Bucs which may carry over into this game.


Buffalo Bills @ Chicago Bears (+9)- Justin Fields and the Bears managed to keep it close against the Eagles and will look to do the same against the Buffalo Bills although Josh Allen does have the potential to break it open.


Detroit Lions (-2.5) @ Carolina Panthers- The Lions have been playing really well although I suppose many are still skeptical of the coaching acumen of Dan Campbell.  Darnold has been solid although he may need to have a really good game to keep pace with Detroit's offense


Atlanta Falcons (+7.5) @ Baltimore Ravens  - Lamar Jackson is still out although if the Ravens rush defense can contain the Falcons, they could still come away with a win.


New Orleans Saints @ Cleveland Browns (-3)- The Browns offense has become below average with DeShaun Watson at the helm and the unfavorable weather means that Cleveland will have to rely upon its running game. This weather may favor the Browns against the visiting Saints who may not be accustomed to the cold weather.

 

Houston Texans @Tennessee Titans (-5)- The Titans will be without Ryan Tannehill although that may mean an extra dose of Derrick Henry. Treylon Burks returns. It will be important for the Titans to get off to a big lead. Although their defense could do a good job.


Las Vegas Raiders @ Pittsburgh Steelers (-3.5) - The Raiders came away with a surprising win against New England although the Steelers look to continue their winning ways.

 

Green Bay Packers @Miami Dolphins (-4) - Miami lost aclose one against the Bills. They have more than enough to take care of Aaron Rodgers who simply does not have the offensive weapons on paper to keep up with the Dolphins. Although Tua can sometimes be unreliable on 3rd down, the Dolphins should do enough to win unless Green Bay's defense can somehow contain Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle.


Denver Broncos @ LA Rams (+2.5) - One should expect a low scoring game. While their could be several Broncos fans in the arena, for some reason I think the Rams can do enough at home to win.


Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Arizona Cardinals (+6.5) - With the Cardinals on their 3rd string quarterback, the Bucs should find a way to win even with the propensity to find ways to lose games.


Los Angeles Chargers(-4)  @ Indianapolis Colts - The Colts had one of the biggest let downs against the Vikings last week. They are playing surprisingly well although the Chargers should find a way to come out on top.


 Week 15 Against the Spread - 8-7-1

Week 15 Straight Up -  10-6

2022 Against the spread - 113-101-5

2022 Straight up - 140-80-1

2021 Against the Spread- 151-127-1

2021 Straight Up- 162-101-1
2021 Locks - 10-5

2020 Against the Spread- 124-140-6
2020 Week Straight Up - 173-97-1
2020 Locks- 24-24-2

2019 Season Against the Spread- 128-113-3
2019 Season Straight Up- 158-103
2019 Locks - 21-19-2
2020 Postseason against the Spread- 8-3
2020 Postseason Straight Up- 7-4


2018 Season against the Spread- 112-107-7
2018 Season Straight Up- 137-86-2
2018 Locks- 21-16-2

2017-18 Against the Spread- 121-125-7
2017-18 Season Straight Up - 167-92

2016-17 Against the Spread - 141-115-7
2016-17 Straight Up - 101-41

2015-16 Against the Spread - 140-110 

Friday, December 16, 2022

NFL Week 15 Picks

Indianapolis Colts @ Minnesota Vikings (-4) - The Cowboys really took advantage of the Colts who appear to struggle more on the road under this iteration of Jeff Saturday.   

Baltimore Ravens @ Cleveland Browns (-2.5) - The Ravens offense has taken a hit without Lamar Jackson, only putting up 10 points although the Broncos were not able to punish the Ravens given that Russell Wilson was knocked out of the game.  In a division rivalry game, the Browns may come up on top as Deshaun Watson should be enough to propel them past the Ravens.

[Parrino] The Dolphins used propane heaters on the sidelines in LA where it was 55 degrees. Weather reports for Buffalo this Saturday call for snow and temperatures in the 20s. (msn.com)


Miami Dolphins (+7.5) @ Buffalo Bills  - The Dolphins beat the Bills earlier this season on the road.  The cold weather could favor Buffalo.

Philadelphia Eagles @ Chicago Bears (+9) - The Bears are generally a better home team including a surprising home win against the 49ers while the Eagles tend looks to be the best opponent that the Bears have faced home.  The defense can do enough to keep it close although there is a chance that Justin Fields could take them out of the game.

The #Lions have now won five out of their last six games. They're 6-7 on the season and very much alive in the NFC.

Detroit Lions (Pick'em) @ New York Jets - Both of these teams have outperformed their season expectations.  Still, with Zach Wilson back in the lineup could reduce the Jets probability of a win.  

Pittsburgh Steelers (-2.5) @ Carolina Panthers - The Panthers have won 3 of their past 4 games but have generally struggled against AFC North teams.  The Steelers have taken care of business against below .500 teams.

Kansas City Chiefs (-14) @ Houston Texans -  This may be the most lopsided matchup of the week especially if Dameon Pierce ends up missing some time.    

Atlanta Falcons (+4)  @ New Orleans Saints - Atlanta has struggled on the road in recent weeks. Desmond Ridder makes his debut against Dennis Allen.  

Dallas Cowboys (-4.5) @ Jacksonville Jaguars- The Jaguars have not won consecutive games since Weeks 2 and 3.  The Cowboys in the meantime are on a 4 game winning streak since their surprise loss to the Packers and could dominate the running game.

Arizona Cardinals @ Denver Broncos (-3) - In what should be a low scoring game, the Broncos will turn to a rookie quarterback while the Cardinals should struggle immensely without Kyler Murray although the Broncos lack of offense could keep the game close.  

New England Patriots (-1) @ Las Vegas Raiders - The Raiders 3 game winning streak came to an end last week.  This is a must win game for the Patriots as their schedule gets significantly harder after this game.   

Tennessee Titans @ Los Angeles Chargers (-3 ) - Derrick Henry could be due for a big game as the Chargers are  one of the worst rushing defenses in the league.  Although without Treylon Burks, the Titans do lack the explosiveness to keep up with the Chargers offense.

Cincinnati Bengals (-3.5) @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers - The Bucs inability to protect Brady from pressure could hurt Tampa in this one as the Bengals have won their last 8 games even with injuries to their wide receiving corps.

New York Giants (+4.5) @ Washington Commanders- The winner of this game will likely make the playoffs.  The last time these teams battled for a tie.  The Commanders homefield doesn't mean much in what should be a relatively close game.   

Los Angeles Rams (+7) @ Green Bay Packers - Baker Mayfield is coming off a surprise win.  Although Aaron Rodgers may be coming off his injury from a bye.


 Week 14 Against the Spread - 6-5

Week 14 Straight Up -  11-1

2022 Against the spread - 105-94-4

2022 Straight up - 130-74-1

2021 Against the Spread- 151-127-1

2021 Straight Up- 162-101-1
2021 Locks - 10-5

2020 Against the Spread- 124-140-6
2020 Week Straight Up - 173-97-1
2020 Locks- 24-24-2

2019 Season Against the Spread- 128-113-3
2019 Season Straight Up- 158-103
2019 Locks - 21-19-2
2020 Postseason against the Spread- 8-3
2020 Postseason Straight Up- 7-4


2018 Season against the Spread- 112-107-7
2018 Season Straight Up- 137-86-2
2018 Locks- 21-16-2

2017-18 Against the Spread- 121-125-7
2017-18 Season Straight Up - 167-92

2016-17 Against the Spread - 141-115-7
2016-17 Straight Up - 101-41

2015-16 Against the Spread - 140-110 

Sunday, December 11, 2022

NFL Week 14 Picks

Minnesota Vikings (+2.5) @ Detroit Lions - Detroit has been playing pretty well and while the Vikings are favored any think this will be a close game.  Jared Goff will have to contend with the Vikings pass rush although Armon St. Brown has been playing well.

Baltimore @ Pittsburgh (-2.5)  - The Ravens do not have Lamar Jackson and the Steelers are playing better.  Huntley can keep it close though.

Cleveland Browns @ Cincinnati Bengals (-6)-  The Bengals are coming off an impressive win against the Chiefs.  Could they have a letdown against a division rival?  

New York Jets (+9.5) @ Buffalo Bills - the Jets beat the Bills earlier in the season.  Perhaps it wasn't a fluke although the Bills could be eyeing for revenge.

Houston Texans (+17) @ Dallas Cowboys - Dallas is clicking on all cylinders while the Texans have struggled immensely.  

Philadelphia Eagles  @ New York Giants (+7.5)-  The Giants defense played surprisingly well in overtime against the Commanders but the Giants offense wasn't able to capitalize.  Daniel Jones seems to get positive yards from the pocket.  Jalen Hurts seems to be playing better though and could be enough to carry the Eagles ahead.

Jacksonville Jaguars @ Tennessee Titans (-3.5) - Both teams are coming off tough losses.  The Titans will have to adjust without another top wide receiver in  Burks while the Jaguars defense needs to get back into rhythm and slow down Derrick Henry.

Kansas City Chiefs @ Denver Broncos (+9.5)- One should expect the Chiefs to bounce back against the Broncos after a close loss to the Bengals although perhaps the Chiefs will not score as many points on the road against a division rival.

Carolina Panthers @ Seattle Seahawks (-3.5) -  Sam Darnold era continues in Carolina.  Seattle will be without Kenneth Walker so it is unclear how explosive their offense will be although it is a home game.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+3.5) @ San Francisco 49ers -  Jimmy Garrapolo is out although the Bucs offensive line has not been playing great to protect Brady.  Although perhaps Brady can keep it close against a rookie quarterback.

Miami Dolphins @ Los Angeles Charger (+2.5) - Herbert can keep the Chargers in this game especially with the return of Mike Williams.  Although Derwyn James is out meaning that Tyreek Hill could still have a big day.

New England Patriots (-1.5) @ Arizona Cardinals-  Perhaps the Cardinals can win coming off a bye although the Patriots have certainly been more consistent than Arizona this season.


 Week 12 Against the Spread - 7-8

Week 12 Straight Up -  11-3-1

2022 Against the spread - 99-89-4

2022 Straight up - 119-73-1

2021 Against the Spread- 151-127-1

2021 Straight Up- 162-101-1
2021 Locks - 10-5

2020 Against the Spread- 124-140-6
2020 Week Straight Up - 173-97-1
2020 Locks- 24-24-2

2019 Season Against the Spread- 128-113-3
2019 Season Straight Up- 158-103
2019 Locks - 21-19-2
2020 Postseason against the Spread- 8-3
2020 Postseason Straight Up- 7-4


2018 Season against the Spread- 112-107-7
2018 Season Straight Up- 137-86-2
2018 Locks- 21-16-2

2017-18 Against the Spread- 121-125-7
2017-18 Season Straight Up - 167-92

2016-17 Against the Spread - 141-115-7
2016-17 Straight Up - 101-41

2015-16 Against the Spread - 140-110 

Sunday, December 4, 2022

2022 Week 13 NFL Picks

 

Pittsburgh Steelers (-1) @ Atlanta Falcons - The Steelers’ defense feels like it should be able to contain the Falcons running offense enough even if it’s on the road.  Najee Harris is banged up, but the Falcons run defense last week was shoddy against Brian Robinson and the Commanders.

 

Denver Broncos @ Baltimore Ravens (-8.5) – Russell Wilson has really struggled while the Ravens have managed to blow big leads.  One thing for sure, the Ravens probably will not blow a big lead although perhaps the Broncos defense can keep it close despite the poor play of Russel Wilson.

 

Green Bay Packers (-4) @ Chicago Bears - No starting quarterback for either team is a possibility.  The Packers showed some fight when Jordan Love came into the game although the Bears defense will have a week to prepare.  Still, the Bears drop off could potentially be worse without Justin Fields whose mobility is what drives the Bear offense. 

 

Jacksonville Jaguars (-1) @ Detroit Lions - The Jaguars played well last week while the Lions continue to outperform expectations relative to the spread.  

Cleveland Browns (-7) @ Houston Texans – Deshaun Watson makes his debut after his suspension against his former team.  The Texans appear to have solidified themselves as the worst team.  Even if the Texans’ defense is decent the Browns should be able to contain Davis Mills. 

New York Jets @ Minnesota Vikings (-3) - Mike White looks to be a decent upgrade although the Bears were not much of a test.  The Vikings could create pass pressure which would make White struggle.   While the Jets defense could force Cousins into mistakes, Justin Jefferson is a like a cheat code in a video game which should propel the Vikings past the Jets. 

Washington Commanders (-2.5) @ New York Giants – The Commanders get back Chase Young.  The Giants need to get back to Saquon Barkley being the key to the offense.  Daniel Jones does have a good record against Washington although the Commanders did manage to beat the Giants last season with Taylor Heinekie twice.

 

Tennessee Titans @ Philadelphia Eagles (-5) - The Titans struggled last week against the Bengals although the running offense of Derrick Henry could keep it close.

 

Seattle Seahawks (-7.5) @ Los Angeles Rams- Without Stafford and Cooper Kupp, the Seahawks should be able to handle the Rams even on the road.

 

Miami Dolphins @ San Francisco 49ers (-3) – The Dolphins with Tua have been great and explosive although the 49ers are playing at another level and homefield could make it hard for the Dolphins to keep pace.     

Kansas City Chiefs (-2) @ Cincinnati Bengals – This is a potential revenge game for the Chief’s playoff loss and Jamarr Chase is still out.

Los Angeles Chargers (-1.5) @ Las Vegas Raiders – The Raiders have been playing great, but the Chargers may have their number especially since I can’t trust Derrick Carr to be consistent.

Indianapolis Colts (+10.5) @ Dallas Cowboys – It could get ugly for the Colts but for some reason I have faith in Jeff Saturday.  

New Orleans Saints @ Tampa Buccaneers (-3.5) - These are not the Sean Payton lead Saints even if Tom Brady has struggled relative to his offensive line.


 Week 12 Against the Spread - 8-8

Week 12 Straight Up -  11-5

2022 Against the spread - 92-81-4

2022 Straight up - 108-70

2021 Against the Spread- 151-127-1

2021 Straight Up- 162-101-1
2021 Locks - 10-5

2020 Against the Spread- 124-140-6
2020 Week Straight Up - 173-97-1
2020 Locks- 24-24-2

2019 Season Against the Spread- 128-113-3
2019 Season Straight Up- 158-103
2019 Locks - 21-19-2
2020 Postseason against the Spread- 8-3
2020 Postseason Straight Up- 7-4


2018 Season against the Spread- 112-107-7
2018 Season Straight Up- 137-86-2
2018 Locks- 21-16-2

2017-18 Against the Spread- 121-125-7
2017-18 Season Straight Up - 167-92

2016-17 Against the Spread - 141-115-7
2016-17 Straight Up - 101-41

2015-16 Against the Spread - 140-110