Sunday, September 27, 2020

2020 NFL Week 3 Picks

The Falcons/Bears game is still on- AJ Terrell is being placed 
on the COVID-19 injury reserve- no other player has tested postive. 

Italicized for win

Bolded for spread

Sunday

Houston Texans @ Pittsburgh Steelers (-4) LOCK - Pittsburgh is playing well, shutting down the running game the Giants and managed to hold on against a frisky Broncos team. Normally, the Texans would be expected to bounce back but they may have trouble without DeAndre Hopkins.  Houston really hopes they can get Brandin Cooks and Will Fuller going.  The Texans have struggled against the run.  

Cincinnati Bengals (+4.5) @ Philadelphia Eagles - Can the Eagles get it together against a Bengals team that has managed to keep it close against the Chargers and the Browns?  The Eagles have shown some level of competence with the return of Miles Sanders but there are still concerns over its offensive line and defense. 

San Francisco 49ers (-4.5) LOCK @ New York Giants - Saquon Barkley is out so the Giants offense goes against the 49ers whose defense is banged up but did enough to make the Jets look terrible.  Still, look for the 49ers to follow the game plan of running the ball plus Nick Mullens has shown himself to be adequate quarterback.  

Las Vegas Raiders (+6) @ New England Patriots -  This is Jon Gruden's first game at New England since the snow game.   The Raiders are 2-0 and are coming off a good win against the Saints where their defense may not be getting enough credit for slowing down Drew Brees.  Cam Newton has been playing great but the Patriots defense did struggle last week against the Seahawks.  

Tennessee Titans (-2.5) @ Minnesota Vikings - The Vikings defense has been playing badly. AJ Brown is out although that could just mean bigger roles for Jonnu Smith and Corey Davis.  The Titans running game with Henry could get it going as well.  

Washington Football Team @ Cleveland Browns (-7) - This line seems a bit high at first glance but then you have to remember that the Browns passing and running game seem to be back in order with a strong game against the Bengals plus they have had a few extra days to prepare for this one.  Cleveland should be a bit nervous about Washington's pass rush and their ability to slow down running backs.  That being said, Kareem Hunt has been a very efficient running back running alongside Nick Chubb.  Browns' cornerback Denzel Ward did an excellent job against AJ Green last week which makes an interesting matchup against Terry McClaurin. 

Las Angeles Rams (+2.5) @ Buffalo Bills - This is a toss up game. Moss is out which opens the door for Singletary to have a bigger game.  So far, the Rams wins have been slightly more impressive.  Steffon Diggs being shaded by Jalen Ramsey is a key matchup in this one.   

Chicago Bears @ Atlanta Falcons (-3) - Matt Ryan looks to rebound after a devastating collapse that may have not been his fault given that his special teams didn't recover an onside kick plus a drop by Julio Jones in the endzone, who will not play in this one.  The Falcons defense may be out of sorts.  That being said, this seems like a game where the Bears could regress a bit to the mean.  

Carolina Panthers @ Los Angeles Chargers (-6.5) - Mike Davis makes his debut but may struggle against a solid Panthers defense.  Herbert looks like a solid upgrade over Tyrod Taylor.  Look for Ekeler and Kelley to punish the Panthers' run defense.     

New York Jets @ Indianapolis Colts (-11.5)(LOCK)-  The Colts already failed to cover a big spread earlier in the season but that was to a division rival and the Jets look pretty bad without most of their skill position players.   

Dallas Cowboys (+4.5) @ Seattle Seahawks  - The Seahawks have been torching teams but currently have the worst passing defense.  The Cowboys are certainly in that tier with a great receiving corp to make this a higher scoring came.  Dallas will be without their starting left tackle although they still managed to complete the comeback against the Falcons without him.  

Tampa Bay Buccaneers  @ Denver Broncos (+5.5) - Look for Noah Fant and Melvin Gordon to get involved in this one with the absence of Cortland Sutton.  The Bucs did rebound after their opening week loss against the Panthers, but Denver's defense should provide a tougher test even without Von Miller.

Detroit Lions (+5.5) @ Arizona Cardinals - Kenyan Drake looks to atone for his early season struggles against a Lions defense that struggled containing Aaron Jones last week.  Kenny Golladay returns which means the Lions could keep it close in what could be a high scoring game.   These two teams did tie last year.   

Green Bay Packers (+3.5)(LOCK)  @ New Orleans Saints -  The Packers have appeared sharper so far this season than the Saints. Both teams will be without their star receivers meaning that each team will have to rely upon their star running backs.  The Saints defense showed vulnerabilities against Derek Carr last week.  Aaron Rodgers has been much sharper than Drew Brees to start the season.

Monday

Kansas City Chiefs (-3.5) @ Baltimore Ravens - The Chiefs don't appear to be clicking on all cylinders like the Ravens.  That being said, perhaps theydid come in a bit shocked against a division rival last week and did manage to pull out a win.  


2020 Week 3 against the Spread- 0-1
2020 Week 3 Straight up- 0-1
2020 Against the Spread- 20-13
2020 Week Straight Up - 24-9
2020 Locks- 5-3

2019 Season Against the Spread- 128-113-3
2019 Season Straight Up- 158-103
2019 Locks - 21-19-2
2020 Postseason against the Spread- 8-3
2020 Postseason Straight Up- 7-4


2018 Season against the Spread- 112-107-7
2018 Season Straight Up- 137-86-2
2018 Locks- 21-16-2

2017-18 Against the Spread- 121-125-7

2017-18 Season Straight Up - 167-92

2016-17 Against the Spread - 141-115-7
2016-17 Straight Up - 101-41

2015-16 Against the Spread - 140-110 

Thursday, September 24, 2020

Thursday Night Week 3 NFL Pick

Fitzpatrick - "The mustache versus the beard...I think the beard is cooler. 
Guys that grow mustaches have patchy sides"

Minshew - "I'll let mine speak for itself.. but I'm gonna have respect for my elders. 
Especially they're much, much elder"


Italicized for win

Bolded for spread

Miami Dolphins @ Jacksonville Jaguars (-2) - This could be a relatively high scoring game between Ryan Fitzpatrick and Gardner Minshew.  Jay Gruden's offense has mitigated the loss of Leonard Fournette and James Robinson could fill in nicely.  That being said, the Dolphins bounced back nicely offensively against a strong Bills defense making this a toss up game.  

2020 Week 2 against the Spread- 11-5
2020 Week 2 Straight up- 14-2
2020 Against the Spread- 20-12
2020 Week Straight Up - 24-8
2020 Locks- 5-3

2019 Season Against the Spread- 128-113-3
2019 Season Straight Up- 158-103
2019 Locks - 21-19-2
2020 Postseason against the Spread- 8-3
2020 Postseason Straight Up- 7-4


2018 Season against the Spread- 112-107-7
2018 Season Straight Up- 137-86-2
2018 Locks- 21-16-2

2017-18 Against the Spread- 121-125-7

2017-18 Season Straight Up - 167-92

2016-17 Against the Spread - 141-115-7
2016-17 Straight Up - 101-41

2015-16 Against the Spread - 140-110 

Sunday, September 20, 2020

2020 Week 2 NFL Picks

Source: For a second straight week, no players tested positive on Saturday morning on their COVID-19 tests. All clear for Week 2.

Italicized for win

Bolded for spread


Jacksonville Jaguars (+9) @ Tennessee Titans - Gardner Minshew provided some patented Minshew Magic in week 1 although he often was not able to provide it for consecutive games in a row last season.  Perhaps the Jaguars can keep it close if Gostkowski kicking woes continue.  The Titans are without AJ Brown which means more running opportunities for Derrick Henry.

Carolina Panthers @ Tampa Buccaneers (-9.5) - The Bucs are better defensively which may be the reason why they are getting points.  The Panthers gave up 30 rushing TDs last week and their defense this season is arguably worse.  Look for Ronald Jones and Leonard Fournette to take advantage even if Brady struggles.    

Denver Broncos(+7.5) @ Pittsburgh Steelers - With Cortland Sutton playing, perhaps the Broncos will do enough to keep it close although the Steelers did come away looking impressive against the Giants in the 2nd half.  

Los Angeles Rams (-1) @ Philadelphia Eagles - Lane Johnson and Miles Sanders are back.  Still, the Rams may have a slight edge with the interesting offensive packages they can throw out there and the left side of the Eagles offensive line is still in question.  


Field Yates
Durability concerns pushed Frank Gore to the third round in the 2004 NFL Draft, when San Francisco made him the 65th overall pick. Today, he'll get the start against the 49ers and play in his 228th career game, the most by any RB in NFL history. Long live Frank Gore.


San Francisco 49ers (-7) (LOCK) @ New York Jets -  49ers receivers are all banged up including tight end George Kittle. Jamison Crowder and LeVeon Bell are both out meaning Frank Gore can get even more opportunities against the team that drafted him.  Expect the 49ers to pound the ground in this one.    

Buffalo Bills (-5.5) @ Miami Dolphins - A decent defense secondary for the dolphins plus homefield advantage but the Bills are clicking on all cylinders on both sides of the ball.  Fitzpatrick goes against one of his former teams which happens every single time he plays a division opponent.    

Minnesota Vikings (+3) @ Indianapolis Colts - Minnesota defense struggled against the Packers offense but perhaps they can do enough against a less explosive offense.  Rivers did struggle against the Jaguars for a win though and the Vikings with Cousins, Thielen, and Cook could also get it going.  

Detroit Lions @ Green Bay Packers (-6) (LOCK) -  All of the Lions starting corners are injured which could lend to the Packers having back to back explosive weeks.  Kenny Golladay is out again which could hurt Marvin Jones.  Peterson averaged 6.6 yards per carry last week and could get more work than Swift, who the Lions drafted in the 2nd round.  

Atlanta Falcons (+4.5) @ Dallas Cowboys - Both teams have great wideouts while the Cowboys do boast a better defense.  Eventually the Falcons are going to have to start playing defense if Dan Quinn wants to keep his head coaching job.

New York Giants (+5.5) @ Chicago Bears - Mitchell Trubisky played out of his mind in the closing quarter against the the Bears.  Slayton really got it going last week.  I am expecting Daniel Jones to bounce back after a poor showing against the Steelers.  


Washington Head Coach Ron Rivera
plans to receive IV treatment
again during the halftime of 
Sunday's game against the Cardinals

Washington Football Team @ Arizona Cardinals (-7) - Both teams are surprisingly undefeated. It is going to be a super fast paced offensive day. The Football Team is scared of Murray's scrambling ability while the Cardinals fear Washington's pass rush.  DeAndre Hopkins and Kenyan Drake are better offensively than the skill position players the Eagles put out last week.

Chiefs' Head Coach Andry Reid will
wear the same face shield again
but it will have an NHL-style
defogging technology added to it

Kanas City Chiefs (-7.5) LOCK @ Los Angeles Chargers - The Chargers struggled throwing the ball against the Bengals.  Complacency could be a risk for the Chiefs, that being said, the Chiefs also have had extra time coming off a Thursday Night game to prepare for this one.

Baltimore Ravens (-7.5)(LOCK) @ Houston Texans - Could the Texans be more competitive after a poor showing.  Some say the Texans do play well coming off of byes   The last time the Ravens played the Ravens outscored the Texans 41-7.    

New England Patriots(+4) @ Seattle Seahawks - 67 games in a row that the Patriots have been favored and now it is over. Russel Wilson and Cam Newton battle again in what could be another classic game.    

New Orleans Saints (-5.5) @ Las Vegas Raiders - The Saints handily took care of the Bucs last week.  While Michael Thomas's status is in question, they largely didn't need him.  New Orleans defense should do a better job in containing the Raiders than the Panthers last week.  

2020 Week 2 against the Spread- 1-0
2020 Week 2 Straight up- 1-0
2020 Against the Spread- 10-7
2020 Week Straight Up - 11-6
2020 Locks- 2-2

2019 Season Against the Spread- 128-113-3
2019 Season Straight Up- 158-103
2019 Locks - 21-19-2
2020 Postseason against the Spread- 8-3
2020 Postseason Straight Up- 7-4


2018 Season against the Spread- 112-107-7
2018 Season Straight Up- 137-86-2
2018 Locks- 21-16-2

2017-18 Against the Spread- 121-125-7

2017-18 Season Straight Up - 167-92

2016-17 Against the Spread - 141-115-7
2016-17 Straight Up - 101-41

2015-16 Against the Spread - 140-110 

Thursday, September 17, 2020

2020 Week 2 Thursday Night Pick

Many expert predicted that Burrow
would be better this season than Mayfield
Burrow was certainly better in week 1


Italicized for win

Bolded for spread

Cincinnati Bengals (+5.5) @ Cleveland Browns - In a battle between two number 1 draft picks at quarterback, Burrow certainly looked better against the Chargers and may have came away with a win in week 1 in OT if not for a missed field goal at the end of regulation.  The Browns could get their running game going against what was a below average Bengals defense last year although I do expect Burrow to keep it close down the stretch.  

 2020 Week 1 Against the Spread- 9-7

2020 Week 1 Straight Up - 10-6
2020 Week 1 Locks- 2-2

2019 Season Against the Spread- 128-113-3
2019 Season Straight Up- 158-103
2019 Locks - 21-19-2
2020 Postseason against the Spread- 8-3
2020 Postseason Straight Up- 7-4


2018 Season against the Spread- 112-107-7
2018 Season Straight Up- 137-86-2
2018 Locks- 21-16-2

2017-18 Against the Spread- 121-125-7

2017-18 Season Straight Up - 167-92

2016-17 Against the Spread - 141-115-7
2016-17 Straight Up - 101-41

2015-16 Against the Spread - 140-110 

Sunday, September 13, 2020

2020 NFL Week 1 Picks


Dan Snyder tells the Wall Street Journal that "if 
the Washington Football Team name catches on, 
he would be happy to have it as our permanent name." 

Philadelphia Eagles (-5.5) @ Washington Football Team - The Eagles will not have Miles Sanders in this one but look for Boston Scott to fill the void.  DeSean Jackson roasted Washington's secondary in the last game and expect Ertz to get it going if.  That being said, it will be interesting to see how utilizes Washington utilizes its front four especially the rookie number 2 overall draft pick Chase Young and how much progress Haskins made this offseason.  The Eagles have been great against the run so it will be an interesting test for rookie running back Antonio Gibson, some who are predicting to have a break out year.

Miami Dolphins @ New England Patriots (-6.5) -  Look for the Patriots to get revenge on the Dolphins who beat them on the last game of the season which cost the Patriot a bye.  The Patriots defense had at least a couple defensive touchdowns in their first game at home against the Dolphins last season.  

Green Bay Packers (+2.5) @ Minnesota Vikings - The Vikings will have Dalvin Cook back with a newly minted extension.  This would be a spot where I would normally expect Rodgers to struggle on the road but who knows, perhaps the Packers can keep it close without any fans.

Indianapolis Colts @ Jacksonville Jaguars (+8) - How bad are the Jaguars going to be this season? They have the lowest projected wins according to Vegas (perhaps because the Giants and Washington Football Team are in the same division).  They just cut Leonard Fournette.  Perhaps the Jaguars can put up some points with Minshew Magic although the Colts should certainly get their running game.  Will it be the veteran Marlon Mack or the new rookie Johnathan Taylor who gets the lion share will be an interesting story to follow.


Chicago Bears @ Detroit Lions (-3) (LOCK) - The Lions get Stafford back while they were 3-4 they actually almost knocked off the defending champions Kansas City Chiefs.  The Bears in the meantime return Mitchell Trubisky at quarterback who wasn't as terrible as you might think during the second half of the 2019 season; Trubisky has thrown 3 touchdowns in each of his last 3 games against the Lions although Stafford didn't play in two of them.  Perhaps the Lions anemic running game will be aided by the recently acquired Adrian Peterson.

Las Vegas Raiders @ Carolina Panthers (+3.5) - The Carolina Panthers while boasting the best running back in football in Christian McCaffery could get it going against a Raiders defense that wasn't great last season.  Terry Bridgewater after all was an effective starting quarterback but that was when he was paired with Michael Thomas and Sean Payton as an offensive coordinator.  This could be a high scoring game with the Raiders running back Josh Jacobs expected to have a big season, and the Raiders addressing their wide receiver corp through the draft.  


New York Jets @ Buffalo Bills (-6.5) - The last time these two teams faced off opening day resulted in a Jets' 4th quarter collapse which resulted in the Bills coming away with a victory.  I suspect the Jets can keep it close potentially if they utilize Leveon Bell effectively but the Bills offense should be more explosive this season with Steffon Diggs.  


Baker Mayfield will become the first QB in @NFL history to make his first 30 career starts for the same team but under four different head coaches.


Cleveland Browns @ Baltimore Ravens (-6.5)(LOCK) - Surprisingly, the Browns did beat the Ravens last season but then finished with a disappointing finish.  Can Cleveland turn Odell Beckahm back into one of the best receivers in the game and improve on Baker Mayfield's accuracy issues?  Either way, Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt should play better under a better Cleveland Brown's line than last year who need to control time of possession to have a chance in this one.  The Ravens are still going to be an explosive offense with Lamar Jackson returning.

Seattle Seahawks  @ Atlanta Falcons (+2) - The Falcons on paper look like they will be great offensively.  Some are even projecting Calvin Ridley to be as stellar as Julio Jones this season although one has to think Julio Jones has other ideas.  Russell Wilson will likely let it loose.  Questions still remain with the Seahawks backfield in Carson coming off a season ending injury.  I expect Gurley to be the x factor and could have a decent performance early in the season.   

LA Chargers @ Cincinnati Bengals (+3) - Joe Burrow makes his first start against Tyrod Taylor who may be a slight upgrade to what Phillip Rivers did last season.  I think the return of AJ Green may help the Bengals pull off an upset.

Arizona Cardinals (+6.5) @ San Francisco 49ers - The authorities are monitoring air quality to make sure they can play.  Can Kyler Murray get it going against a 49ers team who he played surprisingly well with and especially with the addition of DeAndre Hopkins?  Look for the 49ers to utilize both George Kittle and Jordan Reed with Deebo Samuels out.  

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (3.5) @ New Orleans Saints - Tom Brady vs. Drew Brees should be a fun matchup.  Both quarterbacks have similar strengths of being experienced and similar weaknesses of not getting the deep ball down the field.  Normally I would give the advantage to the home team covering comfortably but in reality this is a pick'em with perhaps a slight edge to New Orleans with their defense. 

Dallas Cowboys @ LA Rams (+3) - The Rams will look to atone for not getting to the playoffs while the Cowboys have lofty expections with three great wide receivers and a QB under a franchise tag.  I do think the Rams could come away with a victory due to Sean McVay coming up with an effective game plan.

Pittsburgh Steelers (-5.5)(LOCK) @ NY Giants - The Steelers appear to have a lot of weapons for Big Ben to succeed although his agei s a concern. Look for Diontae Johnson to complement Juju-Smith Scchuster and James Connor is healthy for now.  Saquon Barkley can keep the Giants in this game but Daniel Jones was turnover prone although at times electric.  The big thing is that the Giants still look like one of the worst defensive teams.  

Tennessee Titans (-2.5)(LOCK) @ Denver Broncos  - The Broncos best players appear to be dropping like flies including Courtland Sutton and defensive end Von Miller.  Expect this to be an interesting defensive battle.  Two of the hardest people to tackle are Derrick Henry and AJ Brown who look to get back to the playoffs again.  


2020 Week 1 Against the Spread- 1-0
2020 Week 1 Straight Up - 1-0

2019 Season Against the Spread- 128-113-3
2019 Season Straight Up- 158-103
2019 Locks - 21-19-2
2020 Postseason against the Spread- 8-3
2020 Postseason Straight Up- 7-4


2018 Season against the Spread- 112-107-7
2018 Season Straight Up- 137-86-2
2018 Locks- 21-16-2

2017-18 Against the Spread- 121-125-7

2017-18 Season Straight Up - 167-92

2016-17 Against the Spread - 141-115-7
2016-17 Straight Up - 101-41

2015-16 Against the Spread - 140-110 


Thursday, September 10, 2020

2020 Week 1 Thursday Night Pick




Italicized for win

Bolded for spread

 Houston Texans @ Kansas City Chiefs (-9.5)  -    While there is no preseason and theoretically no homefield advantage the Chiefs are returning twenty out of twenty two starters.  The Texans traded DeAndre Hopkins for David Johnson so the Texans will have to rely more on Brandin Cooks and Will Fuller V.  The Chiefs did overcome a 24-0 deficit the last time they played .  Clyde Edwards Helaire could be a more explosive back for the Kansas City than Damien Williams.  


2019 Season Against the Spread- 128-113-3

2019 Season Straight Up- 158-103
2019 Locks - 21-19-2
2020 Postseason against the Spread- 8-3
2020 Postseason Straight Up- 7-4


2018 Season against the Spread- 112-107-7
2018 Season Straight Up- 137-86-2
2018 Locks- 21-16-2

2017-18 Against the Spread- 121-125-7

2017-18 Season Straight Up - 167-92

2016-17 Against the Spread - 141-115-7
2016-17 Straight Up - 101-41

2015-16 Against the Spread - 140-110