Sunday, September 26, 2021

2021 Week 3 Picks

Giants are inducting Eli Manning into their Ring of Honor at halftime
Danny Dimes will try to honor him with a win

Indianapolis Colts (+5.5) @ Tennessee Titans - The Colts have actually beaten the Titans the last 2 road games.  The Colts desperately need to get their running game going but at least they will have Carson Wentz back.

Chicago Bears (+7.5) @ Cleveland Browns - Justin Fields makes his debut.   The Browns are banged up at receiver and the Bears defense did a good job slowing down the Bengals last week.

New Orleans Saints @ New England Patriots (-3) - This could be a low scoring game as the defenses could take over.  Perhaps the Patriots can do enough to confuse Winston and beat the Saints at home.

Arizona Cardinals (-7) @ Jacksonville Jaguars -  Trevor Lawrence has struggled; the Jaguars offense has not lived up to expectations.  The Cardinals have so many weapons that they should score at least 31 points for 3rd straight.

Atlanta Falcons @ New York Giants (-3)(LOCK)-  The Giants actually looked pretty good against Washington albeit some questionable mental lapses.  Their defense may also be underrated.  The Falcons have struggled on the road.  

Los Angeles Chargers (+6.5) @ Kansas City Chiefs - The Chiefs have struggled in the regular season in their last several games and their defense is prone to mistakes as it is one of the youngest in the league.  Herbert could make this game close especially in a division game. 

Cincinnati Bengals (+4.5) @ Pittsburgh Steelers - Both teams are missing their top receivers- Tee Higgins for the Bengals and Diontae Johnson for the Steelers.  These are two evenly matched teams although one has to figure the Steelers can pull it out at home.  That being said, Joe Burrows may be able to outplay Big Ben even with a shoddy offensive line.  

Baltimore Ravens @ Detroit Lions (+9.5) - Jared Goff needs to limit his mistakes to keep it close.  Otherwise it could be a long day for the Lions.  That being said, the Ravens are dealing with a lot of injuries especially in their secondary so the Lions can still put up points and Lamar Jackson is dealing with a non CoVid related illness.

Washington Football Team (+9) @ Buffalo Bills -  The Bills will likely take this game although Taylor Heinekie can do enough to keep it close, plus Washington's defense could do a better job on a longer week.  That being said, Emmanuel Sanders may have a big game plus Landon Collins defense on the run and the pass has not lived up the massive contract that Washington signed him to a few years ago.

New York Jets @ Denver Broncos (-11.5)(LOCK) - The Broncos look to take advantage of another below average opponent.  Wilson has struggled while the Broncos get their first home game of the year.  

Miami Dolphins @ Las Vegas Raiders (-4) - Last year the Raiders lost to this Dolphins team.  That being said, Fitzpatrick was playing out of his mind at the time and at this moment the Raiders defense looks much more stout.

Seattle Seahawks (-1.5)(LOCK) @ Minnesota Vikings  - Russell Wilson has yet to lose the Minnesota Vikings his career and the Vikings will likely be without Dalvin Cook.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+1) @ Los Angeles Rams - This could be a potential revenge game for Brady who may have indicated in HBO's The Shop that he wanted to play for the Rams but instead chose to keep Jared Goff.  Homefield advantage may also be negated given it's in Los Angeles.  Darrell Henderson is out.  The Bucs will probably have a game plan to take out Cooper Kupp.  

Green Bay Packers (+3.5) @ San Francisco 49ers - Both teams are dealing with injuries.  The Packers are onto their 3rd string left tackle.  The 49ers are starting Trey Sermon who didn't play week 1 and was concussed last week.  The 49ers with Jimmy G looked unimpressive against the Eagles until the Eagles suffered some injuries on the defensive front.  Aaron Rodgers looks to repeat his performance beating the 49ers on the road last year although in that game the 49ers were much more decimated with injuries

Philadelphia Eagles @ Dallas Cowboys (-4) - The Cowboys defense has looked much better than last season.  Something with the Eagles offense seemed off in the last game.   I'm not sure if the Eagles can keep up with the Cowboys if this game becomes a high scoring affair.  


2021 Against the Spread- 15-18
2021 Straight Up- 18-16
2021 Locks - 3-2

2020 Against the Spread- 124-140-6
2020 Week Straight Up - 173-97-1
2020 Locks- 24-24-2

2019 Season Against the Spread- 128-113-3
2019 Season Straight Up- 158-103
2019 Locks - 21-19-2
2020 Postseason against the Spread- 8-3
2020 Postseason Straight Up- 7-4


2018 Season against the Spread- 112-107-7
2018 Season Straight Up- 137-86-2
2018 Locks- 21-16-2

2017-18 Against the Spread- 121-125-7
2017-18 Season Straight Up - 167-92

2016-17 Against the Spread - 141-115-7
2016-17 Straight Up - 101-41

2015-16 Against the Spread - 140-110 

Sunday, September 19, 2021

2021 Week 2 PIcks


 Zach Wilson faces off against Mac Jones (via PFF)


New England Patriots (-5.5) @ New York Jets - The Patriots defense has routinely taken care of the Jets and Zach Wilson makes his debut.  Stephen Gilmore is out but it is still likely the Pats defense has its way against the Jets whose backfield is still muddled plus the Jets are playing without its top offensive lineman. 

Denver Broncos @ Jacksonville Jaguars - The Broncos look to dominate on the road.  The Jaguars attempt to bounce back and could do enough to keep it close.  Otherwise, the Urban Meyer rumors to USC will continue.

Buffalo Bills @ Miami Dolphins (+3) - The Dolphins defense could do enough defensively at home to win a division game.  

San Francisco 49ers @ Philadelphia Eagles (+3.5) - Philadelphia looks like a better team than indicated on both sides of the ball.  Jalen Hurts looked good against the Falcons along with rookie Davante Smith.  Plus Philadelphia defensive front looks pretty strong especially if they can get a lead.  

Los Angeles Rams (-4) @ Indianapolis Colts -  Perhaps Carson Wentz can shake off some of the rust but it may still be an uphill battle against the Rams.  

Las Vegas Raiders (+6) @ Pittsburgh Steelers -  The Raiders defense could do enough to keep it close.   Still, the Raiders are coming off a short week and playing without Josh Jacobs.  

Cincinnati Bengals (+3) @ Chicago Bears - Andy Dalton plays against his former history.  Justin Fields also may see some time.  This is a toss up game as the Bengals are coming off a decent win against the Vikings and their passing attack could do enough against a below average Bears secondary.

Houston Texans (+12.5) @ Cleveland Browns - The Browns should win comfortably but this be a relatively high scoring game.  Perhaps the Texans are not as terrible as everyone predicted going into the season.  

Minnesota Vikings @ Arizona Cardinals (-4)(LOCK) - The Vikings lost to the Bengals, their defense couldn't slow down the Bengals last week and could have their hands full against the Cardinals.  

Atlanta Falcons @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-12.5)(LOCK) - The Buccaneers have extra time to prepare for this one.  The trend of Matt Ryan struggling without Matt Ryan could continue.   

Tennessee Titans @ Seattle Seahawks  (-5.5) - Derrick Henry only rushed for 58 yards.  Things could get tricky for the Titans if they fall behind by big especially with Seattle's homecrowd back.

Dallas Cowboys @ Los Angeles Chargers (-3) -  This could be a home game for the Cowboys.  Still, Herbert looked very strong in the opener against Washington and the defense lead by Derwyn James may be underrated.   

Kansas City Chiefs (-3) (LOCK) @ Baltimore Ravens - The Chiefs have never lost to Lamar Jackson.  Plus the Ravens are coming off a short week and look really banged up.  The Ravns also seem to not be embracing Ty'Son Williams.

Detroit Lions @ Green Bay Packers (-11.5) - Both teams looked pretty sloppy last week.  Rodgers usually rebounds against below average teams even when he struggled two seasons ago.  



2021 Against the Spread- 8-9
2021 Straight Up- 9-8
2021 Locks - 2-0

2020 Against the Spread- 124-140-6
2020 Week Straight Up - 173-97-1
2020 Locks- 24-24-2

2019 Season Against the Spread- 128-113-3
2019 Season Straight Up- 158-103
2019 Locks - 21-19-2
2020 Postseason against the Spread- 8-3
2020 Postseason Straight Up- 7-4


2018 Season against the Spread- 112-107-7
2018 Season Straight Up- 137-86-2
2018 Locks- 21-16-2

2017-18 Against the Spread- 121-125-7
2017-18 Season Straight Up - 167-92

2016-17 Against the Spread - 141-115-7
2016-17 Straight Up - 101-41

2015-16 Against the Spread - 140-110 

Thursday, September 16, 2021

2021 Week 2 Thursday Night Pick

Daniel Jones is 4-0 against Washington although 4-19 against all other teams.  


New York Giants @ Washington Football Team (-3.5) -

Washington plays the New York Giants on a short week.  Both teams are coming off losses although the Giants looked worse against against the Denver Broncos.  Washington is looking to contain Saquon Barkley who struggled against the Broncos. Perhaps more holes could open up if Washington does not play better than last week.  On a short week, Washington could do better although homefield advantage could be negated by how many opposing fans typically show up.  Heinicke is likely an upgrade over what Fitzpatrick showed in week 1 as Washington looks to get their first win against Daniel Jones.  

Hear my prediction at 10:10 on the Hey Arun Podcast.  https://anchor.fm/heyarun/episodes/Episode-7---Week-1-Recap--Fantasy-Football--Thursday-Night-Football-Pick-e17fdl7


2021 Week 1 Against the Spread- 8-8
2021 Week 1 Straight Up- 8-8
2021 Locks - 2-0

2020 Against the Spread- 124-140-6
2020 Week Straight Up - 173-97-1
2020 Locks- 24-24-2

2019 Season Against the Spread- 128-113-3
2019 Season Straight Up- 158-103
2019 Locks - 21-19-2
2020 Postseason against the Spread- 8-3
2020 Postseason Straight Up- 7-4


2018 Season against the Spread- 112-107-7
2018 Season Straight Up- 137-86-2
2018 Locks- 21-16-2

2017-18 Against the Spread- 121-125-7
2017-18 Season Straight Up - 167-92

2016-17 Against the Spread - 141-115-7
2016-17 Straight Up - 101-41

2015-16 Against the Spread - 140-110 

Sunday, September 12, 2021

2021 Week 1 Picks

Kirk Cousins makes his debut for the 2021 season


Jacksonville (-3)
 @ Houston -  The Jaguars should do enough to pull ahead with the addition of Trevor Lawrence and a decent running game with James Robinson, who looks to remind everyone on how he was a great running back in his rookie season.  The Texans in the meantime have one of the worst rosters on paper yet do not have a single rookie on the team.  

Los Angele Chargers @ Washington Football Team (+1)- Los Angeles is traveling from West to East.  Fitzpatrick is streaky- that being said, he usually starts off the season hot.  Austin Eckler dealing with a hamstring injury could be enough for Washington to pull ahead.  Curtis Samuels is out but Dyami Brown could fill in the void along with Terry McClaurin and Logan Thomas.  Antonio Gibson could see a bigger role in this offense as well.  

Seattle Seahawks (-2.5) @ Indianapolis Colts - The Colts present a tough matchup as the Seahawks defense could struggle against the Colts offensive line and pretty solid.  Tt's hard to go against Russell Wilson and great receivers in DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett.  Wentz may need time to adapt as he was dealing with an injury in preseason and he was also inconsistent with the Eagles.  

New York Jets @ Carolina Panthers (-4.5) -  The Jets face their former quarterback in Sam Darnold.  With Jamison Crowder out, look for the Panthers to get the edge especially with questions about the Jets backfield.   Although it will be interesting to see how Zach Wilson performs in his rookie debut.  

Minnesota Vikings (-3.5) @ Cincinatti Bengals - Kirk Cousins theoretically should light it up against a Bengals defense.  Joe Burrow's offensive line may be pretty weak.  Still, the Vikings defense was below average last season and the Bengals have a multitude of good receivers even if Jamar Chase has been shakiy in preseason.   Of course, Dalvin Cook should still do enough to separate the Vikings from the Bengals.

Arizona Cardinals (+3) @ Tennessee Titans -  Both teams have below average defenses last season.  The Titans have a better running game though and could do enough to pull out a win.  Julio Jones makes his debut with the Titans while  AJ Green makes his debut with the Cardinals.  Kyler Murray may be the difference in this game over his counterpart Ryan Tannehill.  

San Francisco 49ers (-7.5)(LOCK) @ Detroit Lions - The 49ers had a lot of injuries last season but have their full compliment of players and should take care of former division rival Jeared Goff.  DeAndre Swift is an excellent talent but could have his hands full against a pretty good 49ers defensive line, not to mention he was dealing with a groin injury in the offseason.   

Pittsburgh Steelers (+6.5) @ Buffalo Bills - This could be a high scoring game between Big Ben and Josh Allen slinging it out.  The Steelers defense is a long cry from when it was when it was dominant  so expect Buffalo to pull it out although it could be closer due to he lack of viable running backs that the Bills had last season.

Philadelphia Eagles @ Atlanta Falcons (-3.5) - This could be a high scoring game.  Kyle Pitts makes his debut and could be an interesting weapon.  Hurts could do enough to keep the Eagles going along with Sanders.   Matt Ryan still could get it going with Calvin Ridley and Mike Davis looks to show that he's a viable back at home.  Of course, the Falcons propensity to blow games is concerning although they have moved on from Dan Quinn as a head coach.

Cleveland Browns @ Kansas City Chiefs (-6) -  This game was pretty close last season down the stretch although I feel the Chiefs could do enough to win.  Plus Odell Beckham may be dealing with a nagging injury that made him questionable leading up to the week.  Of course the Browns avenue to keep it close is their running game.  That being said, the Chiefs will ook to rebound after their disappointing Super Bowl loss to the Bucs.  

Green Bay Packers (-3) @ New Orleans Saints -  The packers and Saints game could be close although given that the Saints may have had trouble filling out their rotster due to salary cap roles.  I would like to see Callaway do it before saying the Saints could win. 

Denver Broncos (-2.5) @ New York Giants - The Broncos full compliment of of weapons returns including Courland Sutton and Javonte Williams looks like an interesting addition interesting.  Is Squon 100%- do the Giants get a boost from their home crowd? For now, I will favor the Broncos as I rate Terry Bridgewater slightly ahead of Daniel Jones and the Broncos defense is better.  It may also take Barkley a couple of weeks to get going.  

Miami Dolphins @ New England Patriots (-3) - Two young Alabama quarterbacks go at it.  Right now I think Ta is a better player, although the Patriots typically do take care of their division rival at home. 

Chicago Bears @ Los Angeles Rams (-7)(LOCK) - The Rams should take care of the Bears. Stafford is familiar with the playing the Bears

Baltimore Ravens (-4.5) @ Las Vegas Raiders - The Ravens are on to their 4th running back.  I think the Ravens should beat the Raiders although this game could be closer as a result.  


2021 Week 1 Against the Spread- 0-1
2021 Week 1 Straight Up- 1-0

2020 Against the Spread- 124-140-6
2020 Week Straight Up - 173-97-1
2020 Locks- 24-24-2

2019 Season Against the Spread- 128-113-3
2019 Season Straight Up- 158-103
2019 Locks - 21-19-2
2020 Postseason against the Spread- 8-3
2020 Postseason Straight Up- 7-4


2018 Season against the Spread- 112-107-7
2018 Season Straight Up- 137-86-2
2018 Locks- 21-16-2

2017-18 Against the Spread- 121-125-7
2017-18 Season Straight Up - 167-92

2016-17 Against the Spread - 141-115-7
2016-17 Straight Up - 101-41

2015-16 Against the Spread - 140-110

Thursday, September 9, 2021

2021 Week 1 Thursday Night Pick


Tom Brady throwing the Super Bowl Trophy in the water



Bucs’ QB Tom Brady will start his NFL record 300th regular-season game tonight.


Italicized for win

Bolded for spread


Dallas Cowboys @ Tampa Bay Bucs (-7.5)

The NFL season kicks off with the defending Super Bowl Champions taking on the Dallas Cowboys, who are Vegas's presumptive favorites to win the NFC East.  It looks as though the Cowboys will not have top offensive lineman Zach Martin due to the CoVid protocol; Connor McGovern will try to fill the void.  The Cowboys can open it up with its offensive arsenal of Prescott with its great wide receivers in Cooper, Lamb, and Gallup.  Elliott also looks to bee in better shape than last season as least from what was seen in HBO's Hard Knocks.  

Still, the Bucs defense is running it back and was already one of the best last season.  The Cowboys defense was below average last season although they have seemed to have addressed it with some draft picks including Trevon Diggs, a 6 foot 2 corner who will likely go against Mike Evans and Micah Parson, who looks to be a really good linebacker out of Penn State. Although they will have their work cut out for them against the Bucs offense which may be even stronger if Antonio Brown can get back to where he was a few seasons ago.  

Prescott could be overcoming some rust coming off an ankle injury from last season, not to mention he was dealing with an arm injury in training camp.  The Bucs could continue their momentum that they had from the postseason.  


2021 Playoffs Against the Spread- 7-6 
2021 Playoffs Straight Up- 10-3
2020 Against the Spread- 124-140-6
2020 Week Straight Up - 173-97-1
2020 Locks- 24-24-2

2019 Season Against the Spread- 128-113-3
2019 Season Straight Up- 158-103
2019 Locks - 21-19-2
2020 Postseason against the Spread- 8-3
2020 Postseason Straight Up- 7-4


2018 Season against the Spread- 112-107-7
2018 Season Straight Up- 137-86-2
2018 Locks- 21-16-2

2017-18 Against the Spread- 121-125-7
2017-18 Season Straight Up - 167-92

2016-17 Against the Spread - 141-115-7
2016-17 Straight Up - 101-41

2015-16 Against the Spread - 140-110