Sunday, November 26, 2023

2023 Week 12 Picks


 According to Adam Schefter, the NFL is hoping to avoid this becoming the fifth straight week
that a starting quarterback has suffered a season-ending injury. Kirk Cousins ruptured his Achilles in Week 8, Daniel Jones tore his ACL in Week 9, Deshaun Watson fractured his shoulder in Week 10, and Joe Burrow tore a wrist ligament in Week 11.


Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Indianapolis Colts (-2.5) - The Bucs looked sloppy against the 49ers but so far the whole league does.   They could contend with the Colts although Indianapolis is coming off a bye.

New England Patriots @ New York Giants (+3)-  Tommy Devito looked solid against the Commanders.   The Patriots appear to have thrown in the towel.  Draft positioning could be an important in this one.  

Pittsburgh Steelers (-1)(LOCK) @ Cincinnati Bengals-  The Steelers are likely to take advantage of Browning's lack of experience at the quarterback position.

Jacksonville Jaguars @ Houston Texan (+1.5) - An important divisional game for both teams  The Jaguars are coming off an impressive victory although the Texans look like they are making a challenge for a postseason spot.  .  

New Orleans Saints (-1) @ Atlanta Falcons-  The Falcons are going back to Desmond Ridder.  Maybe Ridder got better spending some time on the bench although the evidence remains to be seen if he can beat a good New Orleans defense.  

Los Angeles Rams @ Arizona Cardinals (+1)-  The Rams appeared to regain some of its spar in last weeks win while the Cardinals offense has been a roll since Kyler Murray came back.   

Cleveland Browns @ Denver Broncos (-2.5)(LOCK) -  The Broncos look like a much better team over the last few weeks, of what is to be expected of a Sean Payton coach lead tea.  Russell Wilson even looks like a competent starting quarterback.

Buffalo Bills @ Philadelphia Eagles (-3) -  The Eagles' defense did it is part in slowing down the Chiefs offense.   The Bills do have a better receivers to throw at the Eagles while Jalen Hurts will try to do get it going. 

Baltimore Ravens (-3.5) @ Los Angeles Chargers- The Ravens offense should get it going against the Chargers defense who haven't been able to slow it down this season.  

Kansas City Chiefs @ Las Vegas Raiders (+9)- The Chiefs are looking to overcome a loss to the Eagles, while the Raiders defense has been pretty frisky since Antonio Pierce has taken over.  

Week 12 Against the Spread - 2-2

Week 12 Straight up – 3-1

Week 12 Locks - 1-0

Week 11 Against the Spread 7-7

Week 11 Straight up - 7-7

Week 11 Locks - 2-0 

2023 Against the Spread - 79-73

2023 Locks - 19-9

2023 Straight Up - 109-55

Sunday, November 19, 2023

2023 Week 11 NFL Picks


Aaron Rodgers eyes a Week 16 return


Dallas Cowboys (-10.5)(LOCK) @ Carolina Panthers - Dallas laid the smack down on the Giants in week 1.  The Panthers should suffer a similar fate provided the Cowboys don't let their foot off the gas which is more than capable of happening given that the Cowboys let the Cardinals 

Pittsburgh Steelers(+4) @ Cleveland Browns - DeShaun Watson is out so they go to the rookie. The Steelers got it going by running the ball against the Packers although the Browns defense is a diffrent test.  Pickett will need to play better.

Chicago Bears (+10) @ Detroit Lions  - The Lions offense is firing on all cylinders.  Granted they weren't able to slow down the chargers but the Bears appear to be not an oiled machine even if Justin Fields is coming back off an injury.

Los Angeles Chargers @ Green Bay Packers (+3)  - The Chargers' offense looked great against the Lions  The Packers may be able to run the ball well against the Chargers though and being an east coast game could make the game go either way.

Arizona Cardinals (+4) @ Houston Texans - Kyler Murray still looks rusty at times while the Texans keep finding ways to win.

Tennessee Titans (+6.5) @ Jacksonville Jaguars -  The Jaguars struggled immensely against the 49ers but the Titans defense is not in the same league.  

Las Vegas Raiders @ Miami Dolphins (-12) -The Dolphins are slated to dominate the Raiders whose QB play held up against the Jets but likely will not be able to keep up with the Dolphins coming off a bye.  Although the turnaround lead by Antonio Pierce has been remarkable.  

New York Giants(+10)(LOCK) @ Washington Commanders - The Tommy Devito experience has been awful for Giants fans although they play a team that they have played well in the past.   Sam Howell is leading the league in passing yards although it would be nice for him to dominate in the first half rather than relying on 2nd half comebacks.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ San Francisco 49ers (-11) - Tampa Bay looks better than anticipated although the 49ers appear to be firing on ally cylinders with a new revamped pass rush with the addition of Chase Young.   

New York Jets (+7)  @ Buffalo Bills  - The Jets defense keeps putting them in games.  Can Zach Wilson do well enough to complete a series sweep against the Bills, maybe not although  the receiving corps of Garrett Wilson and Xavior Gipson looks promising.  

Seattle Seahawks (+1) @ Los Angeles Rams - Seattle put it together against the Commanders last week despite a poor showing from its offense in the first half.  The Rams look to be a bit aof a mess although they do get Stafford back.

Minnesota Vikings (+2) @ Denver Broncos - Both teams are playing much better than the lst few weeks.  The Vikings success looks great although the Broncos have made the Chiefs and Bills look ordinary in consecutive weeks and are playing at home.  

Philadelphia Eagles (+2.5) @ Kansas City Chiefs - The Chiefs offense has not looked as tight in recent weeks although there is the Andy Reid coaching factor to consider.  Nonetheless, throwing to AJ Brown appears to a cheat code while Kelce has et to create the same kind of gravity.

Week 11 Against the Spread 0-1

Week 11 Straight up - 0-1

Week 10 Against the Spread - 10-4

Week 10 Straight up – 9-5

Week 10 Locks - 3-0

2023 Against the Spread - 70-65

2023 Locks - 16-9

2023 Straight Up - 99-48


Sunday, November 12, 2023

2023 Week 10 NFL Picks



According to Alec Lewis, Josh Dobbs said that Vikings HC Kevin O’Connell was essentially translating calls and mapping out plays mid-huddle, as the play clock was ticking down. KOC called Dobbs’ ability to handle it all one of the most impressive things he’d seen in his career.


Indianapolis Colts (-1.5) (LOCK) @ New England Patriots - In last week's loss against the Commanders, Rhamondre Stevenson had 87 yards but only on 9 carries.  Maybe they will try to get him more involved.  Minshew on the road makes me nervous although the Colts should still be favored to win in this game given that it is in a neutral field.

Cleveland Browns (+6) @ Baltimore Ravens  - Both of these had very impressive performances last week where they obliterated their opponents.  DeShaun Watson looked good, granted it was against lesser competition.  The Ravens should be favored to win a division game at home although an upset isn't out of the question given the letdowns the Ravens have had in the past. 

Green Bay Packers @ Pittsburgh Steelers (-3.5) (LOCK)-  The Steelers look like a more impressive team when they can run the ball like they did against the Titans.   Jordan Love and the Packers had a nice bounce back game against the Rams although the Rams looked like probably the one of the worse teams out there last week.

San Francisco 49ers (-3) @ Jacksonville Jaguars - The 49ers have traditionally looked good off of byes and they could be getting a few bodies bac.  The Jaguars have been playing well though and this could be the game of the week.  

New Orleans Saints (-2.5) @ Minnesota Vikings-  Josh Dobbs really pulled a rabbit out of his hat with the performance he had coming just off the Cardinals.  That being said New Orleans defense should be a tougher test.   While Derek Carr hasn't been reliable the changeup of Taysom Hill has provided a nice needed boost.  Michael Thomas was arrested so that could be a bit problematic but I still think the Saints should be favored here. 

Houston Texans (+6.5) @ Cincinnati Bengals - The Texans are coming off a nice win against the Buccaneers where CJ Stroud looed excellent at times although he still made a few rookie mistakes.  The Bengals look like a well oiled machine though.  Joe Burrow appears to have shaken off a lot of the rust.  The Bengals defense made Josh Allen look ordinary times, now it is just a question of whether the Bengals can avoid a let down.

Tennessee Titans @ Tampa Bay Bucaneers (-1) -  Both team looked impressive at times in their losses so this could be another good game although the loser can't like their chances of making the playoffs.  The Bucs homefield may carry the day here although Will Levis will try to repeat what CJ Stroud did the previous week.

Detroit Lions  @ Los Angeles Chargers (+2.5) -  The Chargers offense looked a bit out of sorts against the Jets defense but their defense was able to do slow down the Jets.  Detroit is coming off a bye where they had a lotto think about after their massive loss.


Atlanta Falcons @ Arizona Cardinals (+1.5) - Kyler Murray makes his return.  It will be interesting to see if Murrray can do what Josh Dobbs did the previous week.  For some reason I like the Cardinals to bounce back even though the Falcons appear to be a significantly better team with Heinickie under center.  The only thing that makes me nervous is if Kyler Murray has some rust similar to what Joe Burrow had earlier in the season coming off an injury.


New York Giants (+17.5) @ Dallas Cowboys -  This seems like a get right game for the Cowboys who suffered a devastating loss to the Eagles.  Granted their game was decided by a few plays by inches, the Giants in the meantime look like a G-league team at times with Tommy Devito under center, even though their defense is playing well and Barkley is still a great running back.  Not sure if the Cowboys will cover here but a blowout is certainly in play.


Washington Commanders (+6.5)  @ Seattle Seahawks  - Seattle will loo to bounce back at home against a Washington secondary that has struggle throughout the season.  Perhaps the Commanders will try to prove hey are better without Chase Young although the crowd noise in Seattle could have an effect on Washington's offense.  

New York Jets @ Las Vegas Raiders (+1)(LOCK) -  The Raiders look competent offensively with Aidan O'Çonnell under center even if Davante Adams has taken a bit of a back seat in the new look Raiders offense.  The Jets defense has been playing out of its minds but Zach Wilson continues to struggle,  Until the Jets make a QB change, I will probably continue to fade the Jets, even if they have beaten a few good teams.  

Denver Broncos @ Buffalo Bills (-7.5) - The Broncos are coming off a nice win against the Chiefs in their previous outing and Sean Payton has had good records coming off byes.  This feels like a Bills get right game though where Allen can show that he's consistent.  On paper, the Bengals defense is better than Broncos although Denver did show it had some toughness when it shut down Chiefs although many division rivalry games can be weighted less.


Week 10 Against the Spread - 1-0

Week 10 Straight up – 0-1

Week 9 Against the Spread - 9-5

Week 9 Straight Up - 10-4

Week 9 Locks - 2-0

2023 Against the Spread - 61-60

2023 Locks - 13-9

2023 Straight Up - 90-43


Sunday, November 5, 2023

2023 Week 9 Picks

             The Firings of Josh McDaniels and their GM to cost nearly $85 million  


Miami Dolphins (+2) @ Kansas City Chiefs (Frankfurt, Germany)  -  Mahomes had the flu in his last game.  The Chiefs defense looked solid against the Broncos but were unable to convert.  This is a Tyreek Hill game though so this game could go either way.  The Chiefs have yet to beat a team with a winning record.  

Minnesota Vikings (+5.5) @ Atlanta Falcons  - The Falcons will face a Vikings team in disaray with critical injuries to Cousins and Justin Jefferson.  Taylor Heinicke could do enough to propel the Falcons to a win although the Falcons will be without Drake London.  

Seattle Seahawks (+5.5) @ Baltimore Ravens - Seattle has been playing well.  Lamar can't get away with critical turnovers.  Perhaps traveling from west to east can make the Ravens the favorites although the Seahawks have the better running game with Kenneth Walker.

Arizona Cardinals @ Cleveland Browns (-8) - Kyler Murray is not going to make his debut although  It looks like DeMarcado is out.  The Browns have been firing on all cylinders last week against the Colts.  

Los Angeles Rams (+3) @ Green Bay Packers - It looks like Matt Stafford is out so Brett Rypien will play.   Jordan Love hasn't been much better.  

Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Houston Texans (-2.5) - Tampa did well enough to play the Bills close in their last matchup.  Perhaps CJ Stroud will regress to a rookie quarterback although the Texans seem to do well enough especially with Pierce leading the running attack.

Washington Commanders @ New England Patriots (-3.5) - The Commanders traded away their two defensive ends for draft picks.  Perhaps Washington can get a boost from having no one believ3 in them although the Patriots have been playing better, at least if you average out the last 4 weeks.  

Chicago Bears (+7.5) @ New Orleans Saints - The Saints got it together last week against the Colts and look to repeat the results against a Bears team that is also inconsistent.  

Indianapolis Colts (-3) @ Carolina Panthers - The Pantehrs defense isn't bad.  Adam Thielen is still producing although Miles Sanders is missing in action.  The runing attack for the Colts with Jonathan Taylor and Zach Moss is pretty solid but Minshew has just been pretty inconsistent.

New York Giants @ Las Vegas Raiders (-2.5)(LOCK) - The Giants inability to throw the ball becomes critical with Tyrod Taylor now out as they insert Tommy DeVito.  The Giants defense is also pretty good.  Look for the Riders to get a win though with the firing of their head coach.

Dallas Cowboys @ Philadelphia Eagles (-3) - In perhaps the game of the week, the Cowboys come to town against an Eagles team that barely did enough to take care of Washington.  Still, the Eagles usually get up to play Dallas although perhaps Dallas's defense will give Hurts problems.  Still, it doesn't appear that anyone in the league can cover AJ Brown.  

Buffalo Bills @ Cincinnati Bengals (-2.5) - The Bengals appear to have gotten it together after a nice showing against the 49ers.  The Bills have had extra time to prepare for the team that dashed their postseason hopes.

Los Angeles Chargers (-3)(LOCK) @ New York Jets - Breece Hall got it going in the passing game last week against the Giants.  Zach Wilson showed mobility in the comeback drive against the Giants.  Still, it looks like the Chargers will rebound from a bad showing against the Cowboys.

Week 9 Against the Spread - 0-1

Week 9 Straight up – 0-1

Week 8 Against the Spread - 8-7

Week 8 Straight Up - 11-4

Week 8 Locks - 2-0

2023 Against the Spread - 51-56

2023 Locks - 11-9

2023 Straight Up - 80-39