Breakdown of the Bogdanovic/McCullough trade

Here are my thoughts on Washington trading a first rounder, Andrew Nicholson, and Marcus Thornton for Bojan Bogdanovic and Chris McCullough.

• The Wizards were not going to get a 2^nd round pick back from the Nets.  That is essentially a late first round pick for them since it will likely be in the beginning of the second round and in some ways is better than a 1^st round pick since it’s non-guaranteed.
• While Nicholson didn’t work out, at least one of Nicholson/Smith contracts has panned out.  I would say going into the season that the probability of both of them working out was pretty low.   I’m actually surprised that Jason Smith worked out as he did especially considering his poor start to the season.   
• The writing looked like it was on the wall for Nicholson.  Even in garbage time, his effort was pretty low defensively; one time he let a defender back him down and failed to even contest the shot.  I can’t blame the Wizards for wanting to move on from him.  I wish they had signed Seth Curry or another guard at the time but the move is what it is.    
• The trade ultimately gives Washington the cap room to re-sign Otto Porter 
• Frankly, I don’t care that McCullough was a late first round pick (Nicholson was a mid 1^st round pick in 2012) although I am intrigued by his d league highlights and numbers.    Yogi Ferrell couldn’t keep a job with the Nets and he ended up being a stud so perhaps the Nets’ management and coaching don’t know what they are doing much like how the Wizards let Livingston and Mack walk. 
• McCullough could have just had trouble cracking the rotation behind guys like Rondae Hollis Jefferson and Booker.  My expectations are low though, I don’t envision him cracking the rotation anytime soon.
• Bogdanovic shot 43% on 144 attempts on open 3s in the 2015-16 and should benefit greatly by playing in Washington.  I also felt that the bench’s spacing in the last few weeks has been pretty bad with Smith and Burke being Washington’s only reliable scorers.    Maybe Ian can get in shape; I hope Oubre will keep his spot in the rotation.
• I do believe there is value in the late 1^st round of this draft.  It appears to be a deep draft.  I believe that pick could potentially help the Wizards title odds more than this trade for the following seasons (although there is a large chance many would have been just as angry with who Grunfeld would have selected anyways) 
• Washington could retain Bogdonavic and become a luxury tax team if the Wizards  Cleveland a run for their money. Cleveland is a bit vulnerable if Love/Smith although they are likely still the favorites.
• Ultimately Bogdanovic has been playing mostly small forward and power forward with Washington.  While he has been solid defensively, the Wizards do still need a better backcourt player.  
•     Trey Burke is still the big question in the room.  I still feel Washington’s management may like Burke enough and think his playmaking abilities will be helped by a more consistent shooter in Bogdanovic and he’s a 42% 3 point shooter.  Washington may consider a buyout candidate like Brandon Jennings if the interest between. 
• I probably would have kept the draft pick but you never know how long the Wizards’ window is open.  I am intrigued by the trade, at least the Wizards are in the conversation for making the conference finals.

Super Bowl Pick

Matt Ryan looks to cap off the season with a Super Bowl Trophy

while Brady seeks revenge from a 4 game suspension from Deflategate

New England vs Atlanta (+3) -   Much has been made of Atlanta's bad defense although the Falcons have picked it up lately.  In their past two games against Seattle and Green Bay, Atlanta forced two turnovers in each game and has only given up a combined total of 10 points in the first half.  Atlanta's head coach Dan Quinn was part of Seattle's coaching staff that did a good job in containing Brady in the 2015 Super Bowl. Julian Edelman and Chris Hogan are decent receivers although missing Gronkowski could loom large since this should be a high scoring football game.

The Patriots may have the number one defense but will have its hands full dealing with the Falcon's offense.  Atlanta could also expose the New England's inability to generate a pass rush with its solid offensive line.  True, New England's defense has been impressive although neither the Steelers nor Texans were strong opponents.   The deep ball should be available for Julio Jones who had another great season with 1406 yards, amounting to slightly over 100 yards per game.  It is not just Julio Jones that the Patriots have to reckon with but also Devonta Freeman and Tevin Coleman in the backfield as well as Taylor Gabriel who emerged when Jones was injured.

The Patriots overall have had a soft schedule; one of the weakest in NFL history.  While the Patriots could come away with the win, the Falcons appear to be a formidable opponent with good wins throughout the season including against Oakland, Seattle, and Green Bay.

Postseason Picks against the spread: 6-4
Playoff Picks straight up: 10-0
2016-17 Season: 140-114-7
Straight up(since week 9)- 101-45

My picks can also be found on the Sports on the Hill Podcast at the 1 hour 30 minute mark.