2023 Week 17 Picks

The NFL and the Broncos could face legal action arbitration from 

the NFL Players association for benching Russell Wilson

according to the Washington Post

New England Patriots (+12) @ Buffalo Bills - The Bills did not take care of business completely against the Chargers.  The Patriots may have mailed in most of the season but they are coming off a win against the Broncos.

Atlanta Falcons @ Chicago Bears (-3) -  Perhaps the cold weather will favor the Bears even though the Falcons are coming off an impressive win against the Colts.

Las Vegas Raiders (+3) @ Indianapolis Colts - The Raiders are playing well and perhaps can exploit Minshew and the Colts who only put up 10 points last week.

Los Angeles Rams (-6)(LOCK) @ New York Giants - The Rams have taken care of business down the stretch as they are looking to keep their playoff hopes alive.  A loss to the giants here would be deflating.

Arizona Cardinals (+10.5) @ Philadelphia Eagles- The Eagles may miss their defensive coordinator who is now the head coach of the Cardinals.  

New Orleans Saints @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-3)- A division game where Tampa may win although it should be an evenly matched game plus Derrick Carr may struggle.

San Francisco 49ers (-13.5) @ Washington Commanders- Chase Young makes his return back to Washington.  Jacoby Brissett is a late scratch meaning the 49ers are poised to have a bounce back game.  

Carolina Panthers (+7) @ Jacksonville Jaguars - The Panthers kept it close against the Packers and Trevor Lawrence is banged up.

Miami Dolphins @ Baltimore Ravens (-3.5) - The Ravens struggle a lot against Tyreek Hill although their defense is playing well.  

Tennessee Titans (+3.5) @ Houston Texans - These two teams just played perhaps the Titans can even the series.

Los Angeles Chargers @ Denver Broncos (-5.5)- The Chargers will be without Keenan Allen and Joshua Palmer while Russell Wilson is benched.

Cincinnati Bengals (+7) @ Kansas City Chiefs- Browning did struggle last week although he had played well in his previous 4 outings.  The Chiefs will look to back on track or could be in jeopardy of missing the playoffs.  Jamarr Chase returns.

Green Bay Packers @ Minnesota Vikings (-2) - The Packers barely held on against the Panthers.  Chandler looked explosive in the backfield last week.

Week 16 Against the Spread - 5-9

Week 16 Straight up - 8-8

Week 16 Locks - 0-3

Week 17 Against the Spread- 2-0

Week 17 Straight Up - 2-0

Week 17 Locks - 1-0

2023 Against the Spread - 108-114-1

2023 Locks - 23-16

2023 Straight Up - 129-94

2023 Week 16 NFL Picks

 

Brock Purdy thinks that Christian McCaffrey should be MVP

Washington Commanders(+3) @ New York Jets - Neither team inspires any confidence.  Sam Howell was benched in his last game but makes his return against the Jets who have benched Zach Wilson yet again.  Perhaps the Commanders can get some momentum against the Jets if they go back to Brissett but their offensive line has struggled all season.  The Commanders defense has been unable to generate a pass rush.  The winner of this game also gets a worse draft pick meaning there isn't much to play for other than pride.

Detroit Lions @ Minnesota Vikings (+3)-  The Vikings looked much better changing quarterbacks while the Lions have managed to take care of bad teams.

Cleveland Browns (-2.5) @ Houston Texans - Both teams are still succeeding despite their high profile quarterbacks going down.   

Green Bay Packers (-4.5)(LOCK) @ Carolina Panthers- The Panthers season has hit the tank.  Jordan Love has shown more than the Bryce Young this season.

Seattle Seahawks @ Tennessee Titans (+2.5)-  The Titans will likely have the upper hand just since Seattle is traveling from the West Coast.  Although Kenneth Walker does suit up against a Titans team that has struggled holding down the run.

Arizona (+4.5) @ Chicago Bears - The Bears should take care of business at home but consistency has been a problem for them plus Kyler Murray tends to keep games close against lesser teams.  

Indianapolis Colts (-1) (LOCK) @ Atlanta Falcons- The Falcons go back again to Taylor Heinickie but the Colts may get Jonathan Taylor back meaning they are poised to keep their playoff hopes alive.  

Jacksonville Jaguars (-1)(LOCK) @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers - The Bucs have at times been resilient with Mike Evans helping the passing game but it looks like the Jaguars will have an edge as Trevor Lawrence returns. 

Dallas Cowboys (+1.5) @ Miami Dolphins - The Cowboys looked terrible in their loss against the Bills.  The Dolphins looked sharp against a poor Jets team.  It is hard to determine which version of each team shows up.  For now, the Cowboys could be due for a bounce back after a poor showing otherwise people will begin to criticize Dak's performance in December.

New England Patriots @ Denver Broncos (-6.5)- The Patriots typically struggled in Denver even with Brady and the Broncos have been playing well recently.

Las Vegas Raiders (+10) @ Kansas City Chiefs - The Chiefs typically beat up on the Raiders although the Raiders have been a bit feisty since Antonio Pierce has taken over as head coach.

New York Giants (+12) @ Philadelphia Eagles-  The Devito Hype train hit a bit of snag against the Saints last week.  The Eagles look to get back on track against a Giants team they have kind of owned.  Perhaps the Eagles 'can hid their weakness of their weak secondary against the Giants.  Although Barkley is due for a big play or two and Waller returns, it could get ugly for the Giants if the Eagles can regain some of their form as we inch closer to the playoffs   

Baltimore Ravens @ San Francisco 49ers (-5.5)- In what is the game of the week, the 49ers go against a Ravens team that struggled a bit against their division rival Rams in a shootout.  For now the 49ers may try to send a message to a another potential Super Bowl contender.  This will be a big test for Lamar Jackson.  The 49ers freight train could continue although if the Ravens keep it close it also would not be that surprising.

Week 15 Against the Spread- 4-12

Week 15 Locks - 0-1

Week 15 Straight up - 9-7

Week 16 Against the Spread - 1-2

Week 15 Straight up - 2-1

2023 Against the Spread - 102-105-1

2023 Locks - 22-13

2023 Straight Up - 121-87

2023 Week 15 NFL Picks

Andy Reid was fined $100,000 for criticizing the officials while 

Mahomes was fined for $50,00 for unsportmanlike conduct during the 

4th quarter of Sunday's game at Buffalo, according to Adam Schefter

New York Giants (+6) @ New Orleans Saints - Tommy Devito has been playing well.  The Saints might be able to slow him down although Devito's magical run could continue.  The Saints offense has been inconsistent at times so perhaps the Giants can keep it closer.

Chicago Bears @ Cleveland Browns (-3.5)- The Browns defense looked very good last week - Flaco threw for over 300 yards.  THe Bears looked very good against the Lions.  Although Fiels hasn't played particularily well at home.  Plus the Browns are still playing for a playoff spot.  

Atlanta Falcons @ Carolina Panthers (+3) - There is a chance for the Falcons to breakout against a division rival at home although the Panthers have been held for under 20 points in their last 20 games meaning the Falcons could take care of business on the road.  

Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Green Bay Packers (-3.5) - Both teams are still alive for the playoffs despite slow starts.  The Packers could rebound at home given Tampa's defense is not as strong as the Giatns.  

Kansas City Chiefs @ New England Patriots (+9.5) - The Patriots are last in points per game although they did put up 21 points with Bailey Zappe under center against the Steelers.  Perhaps the Patriots can contain the Chiefs offense who haven't allowed more than 215 yards in their last 4 games. 

New York Jets (+6) @ Miami Dolphins - Zach Wilson had a great game last week but Dolphins have had the Jets number this season.  The Jets put up 30 points last week.  Tyreek Hill is out although the big reason why the Jets lost last time around was that they couldn't slow down the Dolphins running game.

Houston Texans @ Tennessee Titans (-2.5) - It looks like CJ Stroud is out with a lot offensive weapons injured so the Titans could end up continuing the momentum they have from beating the Dolphins last week.  '

San Francisco 49ers @ Arizona Cardinals (+13) - The 49ers have won 5 games in a row go against one of the worst rushing teams in the NFL.  Kyler Murray is coming off a win in his last outing and the Cardinals are coming off a bye but it still looks like 49ers will continue to win.  

Washington Commanders @ Los Angeles Rams (6.5) (LOCK)- The Rams in a loss put up the most points against the Ravens this season.  The Rams have several offensive weapons while the Commanders defense has taken a step back since trading away Sweat and Young.   The Commanders' offense has the worst passing yards, worst passing ratings, worst in points per game, and worst per yards per game.  

Dallas Cowboys (+2.5) @ Buffalo Bills - The Bills are trying to keep their playoff hopes alive while the Cowboys are chasing the Eagles for the division title.  Prescott has only 2 interceptions for the seasons and hasn't thrown a pick in his last 4 games.  

Baltimore Ravens (-3.5) @ Jacksonville Jaguars - The Ravens should be in line for another win although their defense did look shaky at times against the Rams.  Still, the Jaguars offense is not as dynamic as the Ravens especially if Lawrence is not 100%.  

Philadelphia Eagles (-3) @ Seattle Seahawks- Both bird teams are on losing streaks primarily due to their struggling defenses.  Although Geno Smith is questionable for the game which means Drew Locke could play.  The Seahawks have the receivers that could challenge the Eagles secondary.  Still, it seems unlikely that the Eagles will be held for under 20 points for the 3rd consecutive week.  

Week 14 Against the Spread 7-7-1

Week 14 Locks - 0-2

Week 14 Straight up - 3-12

Week 15 Against the Spread - 2-2

Week 15 Straight up - 3-1

2023 Against the Spread - 99-93-1

2023 Locks - 22-12

2023 Straight Up - 127-80

2023 Week 14 NFL Picks

The Jets are aiming to trade Zach Wilson in the offseason

Houston Texans (-5.5)(LOCK) @ New York Jets - The quarterback position needs to be resolved - otherwise the Jets will continue to lose even though their defense is capable of keeping their team in the game.  The Texans look like a really good team although they did lose a few players to injuries over the last few weeks.  

Los Angeles Rams(+7) @ Baltimore Ravens  - The Ravens are laying well but the Rams are too although they are traveling so it could be a tougher game but maybe Sean McVay can get them ready for this game.  

Carolina Panthers (+5.5) @ New Orleans Saints - Both teams are struggling but the Panthers look significantly worse.  

Indianapolis Colts @ Cincinnati Bengals (+1.5) - The Bengals did play well in their last game but it is still a battle of backup quarterbacks at the end of the day.  The Bengals do have better skill position players than the Colts especially with Jonathan Taylor out.  

Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Atlanta Falcons (-2.5) - The Falcons have been playing better although they have had a slightly favorable schedule.  The Bucs could keep it close with Mike Evans although they did lose earlier in the season at home to the Falcons.  

Jacksonville Jaguars (+3)(LOCK) @ Cleveland Browns - The Jaguars will look to rebound after a tough loss to the Bengals although I think the Browns may not have the firepower to keep up even if Flacco is a short term upgrade.  

Detroit Lions (-4.5) @ Chicago Bears - The Bears did manage to keep it close in their last game against Detroit although Justin Fields is very inconsistent.  

Seattle Seahawks @ San Francisco 49ers (-10.5) - Seattle did play the Cowboys tough.  Maybe the Seahawks can figure out how to keep it closer against the 49ers with more time to prepare in a division game although a 49ers tromp would also not be surprising.  

Minnesota Vikings @ Las Vegas Raiders (+3) - Josh Dobbs didn't look as sharp in his last game although the Vikings did have a bye to perhaps get him right.   The Raiders are still a pesky team  but Minnesota's passing game could win them this one.   

Denver Broncos (+3) @ Los Angeles Chargers - The Chargers are already conceding that Ekeler won't be splitting carries.  They look a bit lost.  The Broncos are playing better although Wilson hasn't look completely reliable especially in the last game against the Texans.

Buffalo Bills @ Kansas City Chiefs (-2.5)- Both teams are heading in the wrong direction.  The Chiefs offense appears to have taken a hit.  While the Bills defense has let the down in 3 of their past for games which were losses.  I expect the Chiefs as the team more likely to resolve their issues especially since the game is at home.  

Philadelphia Eagles (+3) @ Dallas Cowboys - Dallas has been playing incredibly well although there are chinks in the armor with their last relatively close game against Seattle.  This game could be close than the last one which was decided by a few Dak Prescott plays but the Eagles offense will probably rebound after a poor showing against the 49ers.

Green Bay Packers @ New York Giants (+6.5) - The Packers appears to have found a switch with their recent wins against the Chiefs and were even competitive against the Steelers although it was a loss.  The Packers defense seems legit it will be interesting to see if Jordan Love can remain consistent on the road against a good Giant's defense. 

Tennessee Titans (+13.5) @ Miami Dolphins - The Dolphins are firing on all cylinders.  They can only really lose this game if they have a mental let down because on paper the Titans can't keep up offensively especially through the passing game although Derrick Henry can always pick up the load running the ball.  Miami still looks like one of the best teams in the AFC.  

Week 13 Against the Spread - 6-6-1

Week 13 Straight up – 6-7

Week 13 Locks - 1-1

Week 14 Against the Spread 1-0

Week 14 Straight up - 0-1

2023 Against the Spread - 91-84

2023 Locks - 22-10

2023 Straight Up - 121-68

2023 Week 13 NFL Picks

Joe Flacco's career continues.

Indianapolis Colts (-1) @ Tennessee Titans  -  The Colts he taken a bit of a hit with he injury to Jonathan Taylor although perhaps Zach Moss can fill in the short term.   Will Levis looks like a competent quarterback although he struggled in the second half against the Panthers.  

Detroit Lions @ New Orleans Saints (+4) -  Both these teams have inconsistent quarterback play.   Goff has been more consistent this season than Carr but he was truly awful against the Packers due to lack of protection.  Perhaps the Saints homefield can keep the Saints in this game but they also have a turnover problem that could prevent them from winning the game. 

Los Angeles Chargers @ New England Patriots (+6.5)-  Both teams are coming off close losses although of different caliber of opponents.  While the Chargers have to deal with the jet lag, the Patriots offense looks anemic although the Chargers offense didn't look much better against the Ravens.  

Atlanta Falcons @ New York Jets (+2.5)-  Bijan Robinson looked excellent last week against the Saints.  The Jets might keep it close if they can slow down Desmond Ridder although he has played well against the Saints last week.

Arizona Cardinals @ Pittsburgh Steelers (-5.5) -  Murry looed sloppy against the Rams last week.  His defense didn't help either as Kyren Williams went off. I expect Harris and Warren to have good games even if Kyler Murray has a good game, it may be too much for the Cardinals.

Miami Dolphins (-9.5)(LOCK) @ Washington Commanders- The Commanders have fired their defensive coordinator Jack Del Rio but with a lack of a pass rush, it could be a long day against the Dolphins.

Denver Broncos (+3.5)(LOCK) @ Houston Texans - These two teams are playing extremely well.  Stroud still might make a rookie mistake but he does come up with big plays.  Still, the Broncos looked like a well oiled machine with their defense playing well, a good running game, and Russell Wilson looks like he's back to playing well.

Carolina Panthers (+5.5) @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers - This game could be closer than anticipated since its a division game, but it looks like Tampa is operating better at the quarterback position.  Although maybe the Panthers will get a boost from firing their head coach.

Cleveland Browns @ Los Angeles Rams (-3.5)  - The Rams are starting to look like a complete team again since it is getting back a lot of injured pieces like Matthew Stafford and Kyren Williams.  The Browns passing game looks like a work in progress with DeShaun Waton out although Joe Flacco could be an upgrade.

San Francisco 49ers @ Philadelphia Eagles (+2)-  The Eagles have had a couple of nail biters against quality opponents including the Chiefs and Bills.   The 49ers appear to be a more complete team than both of the. Although Purdy is significantly worse than Allen or Mahomes, perhaps the weapons of the 49ers of McCaffrey, Deebo Samuel, and George Kittle can make this another compelling game.  

Kansas City Chiefs @ Green Bay Packers (+6.5)-  The Packers got it going against the Lions last week although the Chiefs defense may be underrated and should probably do enough to contain the Packers.  But it will be interesting to see if guys like Watson and Dillon can have back to back good weeks.  

Jacksonville Jaguars @ Cincinnati Bengals (+8.5) - The Bengals offense really struggled against the Steelers but still it was a close game.  The Jaguars could have a better showing although they sometimes play down to the level of their competition.  

Week 12 Against the Spread - 7-7-1

Week 12 Straight up – 9-6

Week 12 Locks - 3-0

Week 13 Against the Spread 0-1

Week 13 Straight up - 1-0 

2023 Against the Spread - 84-79

2023 Locks - 21-9

2023 Straight Up - 116-60