Sunday, January 3, 2021

NFL Week 17 Picks

 Myles Garrett gets to lineup against Mason Rudolph again


Jacksonville Jaguars (+15) @ Indianapolis Colts - The Jaguars pulled off an improbable upset in week 1.  That being said, the Jaguars are going to be resting their rookie running back James Robinson although they could do enough to keep it close in garbage time.    

Tennessee Titans  @ Houston Texans (+7) -  The Titans are more motivated to win against the Texans ass they are playing for the division.  However, the Titans almost lost to the Texans earlier in the season in an overtime struggle.  It's hard to be too confident in the Texans covering though given that they just lost to the Bengals.  

Atlanta Falcons @ Tampa Buccaneers (-7) - The Buccaneers are most likely locked into the #5 seed.  Still, the Falcons could struggle against a Bucs team that usually dominates lesser opponents that do not generate a pass rush.  

Dallas Cowboys (-1.5)(LOCK) @ New York Giants - The Giants have homefield but the Cowboys appear to be playing at a higher level.  The Giants could end up finishing 1st, 2nd, 3rd, or 4th depending on today's games.  

New York Jets @ New England Patriots (-3) - The Jets are playing significantly better with a 2 game winning streak but it is hard to envision he Patriots completely folding against the Jets which would give them a 4 game losing streak.  

Los Angeles Chargers  @ Kansas City Chiefs (+5.5)  - The Chargers surprisingly kept it close in an overtime loss when Herbert started.  With Chiefs resting their starters, the Chargers should win although they have a habit of keeping games closer than they need to even against lesser competition.  

Minnesota Vikings (-3) @ Detroit Lions - Dalvin Cook is out but the Lions have really struggled with Stafford banged up.  The Vikings passing attack should do enough against a below average Lions defense.  

Pittsburgh Steelers (+9.5) @ Cleveland Brown - The Steelers are resting their starters although the Browns for whatever the reason have struggled against Pittsburgh recently which makes this far from a lock from being a blow out.

Baltimore Ravens @ Cincinnati Bengals (-13) - The Bengals have surprisingly won 2 games in a row. The Ravens still take care of lesser competition although perhaps the margin of victory could be less than predicted in a road game for the Ravens.

Green Bay Packers @ Chicago Bears (+4.5) - The Packers do want to lock up homefield against the Bears, but the Bears are playing well and looking to play themselves into an opportunity for a playoff spot.  After a slow start, David Montgomery has been playing well and Mitchell Trubisky has looed like a decent quarterback since being re-inserted as a starter.   

New Orleans Saints @ Carolina Panthers (+5.5) - The Saints will be without their running back corps so it could be a tougher road for them to win.  The Panthers offense did struggle last week against Washington, although they could play better against the Saints.  

Miami Dolphins (-1)(LOCK) @ Buffalo Bills- The Dolphins kept it surprisingly close against the Bills in week 2 in a 3 point loss although the game didn't feel that close and it could be tough for the Dolphins to play well in the cold weather.  The Bills will choose to rest their starters if the Browns end up taking care of the Steelers.  

Seattle Seahawks @ San Francisco 49ers (+7) - Seattle has had trouble putting away opponents due to Wilson struggling and the 49ers usually get up to play their division rival.  

Arizona Cardinals (+.5) @ LA Rams - With Jared Goff and Cooper Kupp out, the Cardinals should have enough talent to move past the Rams 

Las Vegas Raiders (-2.5) @ Denver Broncos- The Raiders passing attack and running game gives them the slight edge over the Broncos.  

Washington Football Team (-4.5)(LOCK) @ Philadelphia Eagles - Washington overcame a 17-0 deficit in week 1 after a great halftime speech by Haskins who was just cut.  The Eagles were also without key pieces including Miles Sanders and Lane Johnson but may be without even more pieces in a meaningless game for them.  


Week 16 Against the Spread- 8-7-1
Week 16 Straight-Up- 12-4
Week 16 Locks - 2-0
2020 Against the Spread- 110-125-6
2020 Week Straight Up - 150-91-1
2020 Locks- 22-22-2

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