Thursday, November 17, 2016

Week 11 NFL Picks

My picks can also be found on the Sports on the Hill Podcast which is found at the 1h:47min 45 sec mark. (A few of them may have changed!)

Questions remain whether the Broncos stepped out of bounds in a game deciding play

New Orleans (+3.5) @ Carolina - Both teams had tough losses to AFC West teams and are evenly matched.  The Saints did manage to beat the Panthers in a shootout.  The Thursday night game generally favors the home team still the Saints are 2 blocked kicks away from being a six win team.  The Panthers have no sympathy given that 4 of their 6 losses were by a field goal or less.  
Pittsburgh (-8) @ Cleveland- The Steelers could not protect Big Ben at opportune times nor could they slow down Dallas's running attack.   Cleveland has been awful and Pittsburgh needs this game to stay alive in the postseason.

Baltimore (+7) @ Dallas - Dallas officially boasts the best record in the NFL.  While the Ravens have had time to prepare like Cleveland, the lack of a running game may hurt the Ravens here.  Still, the Ravens are a top defensive team and could keep it within the spread.


The Lions on a bye take the division lead
Jacksonville (+6.5) @ Detroit - Detroit is on a hot tear right now and watched all their division opponents lose on a bye and now find themselves in first place.  Jacksonville does not appear to be running the all enough and their latest loss to the Texans may have put head coach Gus Bradley on the hot seat.  I have the lions favored here although the Lions do tend to keep games close at home like in their win against Washington an OT loss to the Titans).

Tennessee @ Indianapolis Colts (-3) - The Titans offense is rolling having put up at least 35 points in their last 3 games.  The Titans did lose to the Colts though in week 7 34 to 26 and the Colts are this time at home and coming off a bye so I would consider the Colts slight favorites.

Buffalo Bills (4.5) @ Cincinnati - I would consider the Bills the slight favorites as they are coming off a bye.  On a side note Trump may not have been president if he bought the Buffalo Bills. Cincinnati will be coming off a short week against a Buffalo team with a scrambling QB decent wideouts and LeSean McCoy.

Arizona @ Minnesota (-2) - Arizona's offense is kind of anemic at this point. Even if they scored 20+ points it was still against the Cardinals.  The Vikings in the meantime may also be discouraged after failing to score in the 2nd half against the redskins.  I would consider this game a pure toss-up and would favor the Vikings at home but it may not be pretty to watch.  Still the Vikings have the worst defense which may lead me for them to get a close victory here.

Miami @ St. Louis (+1.5) -

Both teams are coming off road victories.  The Dolphins quality of their wins have been better against playoff quality team as including the Bills and the Chargers.  The Dolphins commitment to the run (ranked 6th in yards per game) will be the key in coming up on top.  Look for the Rams to get a boost from QB Jared Goff; the #1 overall pick from 2016 draft makes his first start.

Tampa Bay (+7.5) @ Kansas City -


Both teams are coming off impressive wins.   The Bucs blew out the Bears handily while the Chiefs snuck away with a win against the Panthers.  Gholston has been key in manning Tampa's defense.  The Cheifs are still an excellent home team although they have had a few close wins against the Saints and Jaguars After New England's loss to the Seahawks, the Chiefs are currently in 1st.  Safety Eric Berry could make life difficult for Tampa who had a 42 yard TD.


Chicago Bears @ New York Giants (-6.5) - The Giants want to keep their playoff hopes alive after this Monday night game.  The Bears also lose Alshon Jeffery for four games.  Josh Howard is the lone bright spot who is averaging more yards per carry than Ezekiel Elliot.

Patriots (-13) @ San Francisco - Tom Brady returns home against the team of his youth.  Look for the Patriots to take out some frustration against the 49ers.  San Francisco did put together a good effort against the Cardinals which could give the 49ers some hope in keeping it somewhat close although Arizona's offense is nowhere nearly as good as the Patriots.  The 49ers may have had a few silver linings such as not giving up a 100 yard rusher and a 3 point loss in their last game.

Philadelphia @ Seattle (-6.5) -  The Eagles remain undefeated at home but will travel to a Seattle team that appears to have found their footing after a win against the Patriots.  I would be worried about a bit of a letdown from the Seahawks given they had a lot riding on getting revenge against the New England Patriots but Seattle homefield, Wentz struggles on the road (they are currently 1-3) might be too much if Seattle can find the creativity on offense that they showed.

Green Bay @ Washington (-2) - Washington offense line held up well enough without Trent Williams.  The Packers offense appeared to find their footing late against the Titans but it was not enough especially after a dismal showing by their defense who is now 0-3 without Clay Matthews.  Look for Washington to be motivated against this Packers team that eliminated them from the playoffs.

Houston @ Oakland (-5.5) (in Mexico City) - Oakland coming off a bye.  Mack should pressure Brock Osweiler into some bad throws.  Houston may be winning the AFC South but has not been tested against a quality team.

Week 10 against the spread: 6-8
Week 10 straight up: 5-9
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