Thursday, November 24, 2016

Week 12 Picks

My picks can also be found on the Sports on the Hill Podcast which is found at the 1h:50min mark. (A few of them may have changed!)


By wins and losses, Washington is the best team that Dallas has beaten so far this season.  


Minnesota @ Detroit (-1) -


While Adrian Peterson may return in December, their running game at the present remains ineffective.  The Vikings did a good job in pressuring Carson Palmer.  However, the Lions are still favorites because Stafford is better than Palmer and Detroit has a better o-line as well as physical runner in Theo Riddick

The Lions have won three straight on Thanksgiving, outscoring their opponents 119-41 at Ford Field. The Vikings have never lost a Thanskgiving game although they are playing their first Thanksgiving game in Detroit since 1995.
Washington (+7) @ Dallas - Dallas had a 4 point win over Washington in week 2; nobody has played Dallas closer since.  Elliot has only gotten better since as Elliot two worst weeks were against Washington and New York to start the season.  Dalls is rounding into shape with Dez Bryant back.  It is a rivalry game that is already taking affect as Sua Cravens recently blocked his mom on Facetime because she is a Cowboys fan.

Despite the short rest, expect a game that could go either way between division rivals with Dallas a slight favorite because of homefield.  While Washington could keep it close, they may be challenged by containing Dallas's running game as well as pressuring Dak Prescott into some mistakes.  It is a rivalry game where anything can happen so do not count Washington out who has now won 2 straight games coming out of their bye week.


Pittsburgh (-7) @ Indianapolis - The Colts are suddenly streaking after a couple of wins against the Titans and Packers who are below average.  The Steelers are reeling a bit even they did come away with a good win albeit against low Browns team.  Still, the Colts may be in for a long game without Andrew Luck.  Look for the Steelers to win comfortably here.


Tennessee (-4.5) @ Chicago -  Titans did struggle defensively against the Colts but the Bears are running out of offensive weapons with the young promising tight end Zach Miller being lost for the season and will also be without Jay Cutler.  Mariotta looking to get back piling up points against a Bears defense that is hit or miss.

Jacksonville @ Buffalo (-6) - Despite losing Robert Woods to a knee injury, the Bills look like they can still run the ball especially if McCoy manages to play this week coming off of a successful surgery.   The Jaguars did play the Lions close but  fell apart at the end.  The Jaguars are already talking about changing their coach.  5 of their losses have been by 7 points or less although things could get messy in the cold weather.

Cincinnati @ Baltimore (-3) - Giovanni Bernard is lost for the season and AJ Green is week to week.  Ravens blow an early lead to the Cowboys as they are susceptible to not having enough offensive weapons.  Justin Tucker is the last kicker who hasn't missed a field goal

Arizona @ Atlanta (-4)

Cardinals have also lost a number of games due to special teams.  Atlanta is coming off a bye as they looked to rectify some of their mistakes against an Eagles team.


New York Giants (-7) @ Cleveland - Cleveland has officially been eliminated from playoff contention.  The Giants look to keep pace in the compettive NFC East.


St. Louis @ New Orleans (-6) - Not a good sign for the Rams that Goff struggled even if it was rainy weather and against a good Miami defense.  The Saints put it together in the 2nd half against the Panthers to make it a close game, so expect them to play better at home.

San Francisco @ Miami (-7) - the 49ers showed some fight against the Patriots even though they eneded up losing by double digits.

San Diego @ Houston (+1.5) - San Diego is coming off a bye and the Texans have had a short week.  That being said,  the Texans are still at home and the Chargers have blown a number of winnable games.

Seattle (-6) @ Tampa Bay - Seattle is playing some good football although their defense will be tested more this week since the Eagles did not have any viable receivers to help out Carson Wentz.

Seattle appears to be running better as Wilson ankle has healed as he caught a pass at wide receiver



Carolina @ Oakland (-3) - Oakland is one of the hottest teams in football.  Even if Carolina is coming off a win, they almost gave it up in the closing minutes of the game against hte Sainst.

Kansas City @ Denver (-4.5) - Denver is the early favorite here because of their defense and ability to limit Alex Smith's passing game

New England @ NY Jets (+7.5) - The Jets managed to beat the Patriots last year at home but even if the Patriots defense is struggling, it is hard to imagine that the Patriots will not win if Fitzpatrick as the starting QB.  That being said, the Jets are coming off a bye.

Green Bay (+4) @ Philadelphia
The Packers Being considered an elite team might be over.  And the Eagles have won all of their home games this season.  Aaron Rodgers has still been playing excellent football.  The Eagles receivers have been bad;  There is right now a petition to oust Nelson Agholor.   That being said, the Packers secondary has somehow been even worse as they have given up a huge number of deep throws against Washington last week.  This game could come down to the wire because of the Packers playmaking ability.

Last week against the spread: 9-4-1
Last week straight up - 11-3
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