Thursday, December 1, 2016

Week 13 Picks

My picks can also be found on the Sports on the Hill Podcast which is found at the 1h:38min mark. (My most up to date picks can be found here.)

Top 3 teams are 12-5 at home and 16-0 on the road.

Dallas (-3) @ Minnesota -




Dallas has not lost since week 1 and now Sam Bradford is dealing with an ankle injury.  The Vikings may get Stefon Diggs back although the Cowboys are getting back safety Barry Church.

Detroit (+6) @ New Orleans  - Drew Brees over his last 7 games 331 ypg, 20 TDS, 5 interceptions, 115 QB rating.  While the Saints are slight favorites at home, expect a close game against Detroit.

LA (+13.5) @ New England -


Brady is also responsible for 40% of the Patriots all time wins

The Rams defense which gave up 49 points last week in New Orleans could be in trouble again as they face a high octane New England offense who looks to get back on track a bit against a non-division foe.  The Rams ratings in LA continue to be worse than when the Rams were in St. Louis.  Still, expect the Rams to potentially keep it close just because Gronkowski is out.

Denver (-3.5) @ Jacksonville - Denver comes off a tough OT loss to a division rival which was blown thanks to a muffed punt.  Talib was not pleased.  The Broncos' defense should be extra motivated against a Jacksonville team which has lost 6 straight.  Trevor Siemians is questionable with a foot injury.





San Francisco (+1) @ Chicago - Both teams lost relatively close games last week against AFC teams.  The Bears lost lineback Danny Trevathan for the season.   Loser of this game likely gets the 2nd pick.  The 49ers may win here even if Matt Barkely is playing well.  The 49ers have almost came away with wins against the Arizona and Miami and played the Patriots tough in a 13 point loss.

Houston @ Green Bay (-6.5) - Houston ultimately has problems putting up points.  They struggled against a Chargers team coming off a bye and will likely face cold weather and Aaron Rodgers.



Kansas City (+4.5) @ Atlanta  -




Atlanta has had a number of close game at home but did take care of business handily against the Cardinals.  Atlanta is still the favorite at home but it shouldn't be easy.


Miami @ Baltimore(-3.5) -







Miami has won 6 straight although they have not beaten a quality team on the road this season.   This is a big game in terms of playoff implications.  The Ravens in the meantime have gone the whole season without scoring 30 or more points, meaning that this game could be a low scoring affair.

Philadelphia (+1) @ Cincinnati - Consider the Eagles early favorites here even if Carson Wentz has struggled.  Since starting 3-0, with 5 touchdowns and no interceptions, Wentz has gone 2-6 and thrown 6 touchdowns and 8 interceptions.  Despite the Eagles road woes, they do have a good defense that can contain the Bengals without AJ Green.  Offensive play calling from the Bengals has been questionable lately.  Plus the Bengals kicking game has been terrible with Mike Nugent.

Buffalo @ Oakland (-3) - Oakland has its first winning season in 14 years.  Buffalo in the meantime, has two wins against relatively weak teams.  Oakland is the favorites although complacency could be an issue.  Led by Derek Carr and Khalil Mack, the Raiders hope to stay atop the AFC.

 Tampa Bay (+3.5) @ San Diego - Both teams came away with impressive wins; Tampa against Seattle and San Diego against Houston.  Jameis Winston has put himself as a candidate for the best young QB in the league and looks to take advantage of San Diego's weak defense.

New York Giants (+6) @ Pittsburgh Steelers -   NY is capable of coming away with a win but the Steelers to come together who have had extra rest off of a Thursday Night game.  The Giants could keep it close with Odell Beckham as a deep threat and a weak Pittsburgh secondary.

Washington (+2.5) @ Arizona -

Certainly a winnable game for Washington- while Palmer has been struggling, Johnson and Fitzgerald have been playing well.  Crowder and Washington could take advantage of the Cardinals poor special teams although Washington may be without Jordan Reed.

Carolina @ Seattle (-7) - Not much went right for the Seahawks in a 14-5 loss.  Still. the Seahawks are seeking revenge in the playoffs last season and the Panthers' have struggled to come away with wins.

Indianapolis (-1.5) @ NY Jets - The Colts should be the slight favorites with Andrew Luck expected to return as well as defensive end Trent Cole.  Questions still remain about Fitzpatrik who threw an interception on the Jets final drive.

Last week against the spread: 11-3-2
Last week straight up - 12-4
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