Sunday, September 29, 2019

Week 4 Picks


Mahomes tries to become the 1st QB
to throw for 6,000 yards in a season

Italicized for win
Bolded for spread


New England Patriots (-7) @ Buffalo Bills - Julian Edelman injured. Josh Gordon banged up injury.  This game only has a 42 point over/under implying a low scoring game.  Sony Michel has been struggling but still getting goal line.



Kansas Chiefs (-6.5) @ Detroit Lions - LeSean McCoy looks good again with the Chiefs. Matthew Stafford could have a big week since it should be a high scoring game.  Mahomes is on pace for 6,000 passing yards.  Lions did not give up a sack last week but their running game has struggled as well.

Minnesota Vikings (+1.5) @ Chicago Bears - Given both teams have great defenses, Dalvin Cook could be the difference in this one given he is by far the best running back in the game.  


Cleveland Browns (+7) @ Baltimore Ravens - Browns have yet to exceed expectations offensively in any week.  Ravens do have to worry about Odell Beckham deep plays but the Browns offensive line remains banged up.  Ingram may not get 3 TDs like he did last week against the Chiefs, but Lamar Jackson play.   

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+9.5) @ Los Angeles Rams - Goff is undefeated after signing his contract extension but didn't look as impressive, partially due to Todd Gurley being banged up.  Cooper Kupp looks to keep it going as a top receiver as a slot receiver.  Woods has struggled as a receiver but has been seeing as many targets as Kupp.  

Tennessee Titans @ Atlanta Falcons (-4) (LOCK) - Marcus Mariota has struggled the last couple of weeks.  It will be key for Henry to be a big part of the running game for the Titans to win.  Matt Ryan is one of the top quarterbacks in the league facing a tough Titans' defense.  

Oakland Raiders @ Indianapolis Colts (-6) - Josh Jacobs could have a better coming off a game where he had the flu.  Tyrell Williams could have it tough against a tougher Colts' secondary.   With wide receiver TY Hilton likely out, look for tight end Ebron to play a bigger role in the offense.  Derek Carr hasn't thrown for 300 yards this season.  

Carolina Panthers @ Houston Texans (-4.5) - Kyle Allen looks better than a banged up Cam Newton who threw for 4 touchdowns against the Cardinals, although the Cardinals do have a terrible defense.  

Seattle Seahawks (-5) @ Arizona Cardinals - Chris Carson is fumbling at a career rate and Kyler Murray has yet to record an NFL win.  The Cardinals haven't even recorded a snap with a lead.  

Jacksonville Jaguars (+3) @ Denver Broncos - A low scoring game.  One has to side Gardner Minshew.  The Jaguars have the slowest pace of play and the Broncos aren't much better.  The Jaguars who have a stifling defense did not record a sack last week.      

Los Angeles Chargers @ Miami Dolphins (+15.5)  - Gordon comes back as his holdout ends but will not play against the Dolphins and Justin Jackson is out.  

Washington Redskins (+3) @ NY Giants - Evan Engram becomes the Giants primary target against a struggling Redskins defense.  Look for the Redskins passing targets in Richardson.  Look for Landon Collins to try to get revenge this week.

Dallas Cowboys (+2.5)(LOCK) @ New Orleans Saints - Dallas looks like a better team than the Saints.  The Saints have given up the most rushing TDs for quarterbacks so Dak may have to run it rather than pass it.  

Cincinnati Bengals @ Pittsburgh Steelers (-3.5) - Both teams are looking for their best wins.  The trade for Pittsburgh acquiring Fitzpatrick resulted in the Steelers forcing 5 turnovers last week.  In primetime games since 2011, Andy Dalton is 6-15.  


2019 Season Against the Spread- 26-22
2019 Season Straight Up- 32-19
2019 Locks - 3-3

2018 Season against the Spread- 112-107-7
2018 Season Straight Up- 137-86-2
2018 Locks- 21-16-2

2017-18 Against the Spread- 121-125-7

2017-18 Season Straight Up - 167-92

2016-17 Against the Spread - 141-115-7
2016-17 Straight Up - 101-41

2015-16 Against the Spread - 140-110  

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