Sunday, September 22, 2019

Week 3 Picks




Italicized for win
Bolded for spread

Denver Broncos @ Green Packers (-7.5)(LOCK) - The Bronco’s'running back Lindsay and Freeman to remain limited.  With Williams out, look for running back Aaron Jones to get more carries for the Packers.  Broncos' Emmanuel Sanders leads all receivers in red zone targets but may find it trouble to get it going against a strong Packers defense.

Atlanta Falcons (+1.5) @ Indianapolis Colts  – Matt Ryan had another 300 yards game last week.   Mack and Hilton are banged up which gives the Falcons an opportunity to steal this one on the road.
    
Baltimore Ravens @ Kansas City Chiefs (-6.5) – Lamar Jackson had a few overthrows but started utitilizing his ability to run the ball against the Cardinals.  Both LeSean McCoy and Damien Williams are banged up so look for rookie running back Darwin Thompson to take a bigger role in the Chiefs' offense.  Lamar Jackson and Patrick Maholmes could be a great rivalry- in their last matchup Jackson got injured and RG3 almost lead a game winning drive against the Chiefs. Look for both teams to exceed the 52 point over/under. 



Cincinnati Bengals @ Buffalo Bills (-6) – Andy Dalton will push the Bills more than he last two oponents like the Giants and the Jets.   But the Bengals defense hasn’t been great against their two opponents.  Mixon only has 1.5 yards per carry.  John Ross may not have as good of game as he did last week whose only TD came in garbage Time.  The Bills have scored on nine straight red zone drives. 




NY Jets @ New England Patriots (-23)(LOCK)- Will the Jets get more than 10 points against a Patriots team?  Sony Michel hasn’t had a broken a tackle this year but should get goal line carries.  Patriots will try to prove a point without Antonio Brown this week.  

Philadelphia Eagles @ Detroit Lions (+6.5) – No Alshon Jeffrey and Desean Jackson is doubtful so Nelson Agholor will get a bigger role.  Myles Sanders is OK in pass protection but need to step up as Philadelphia.  Detroit hasn’t had any goal line opportunities so far this season so it will be interesting to see if Kerryon Johnson will get those carries.  After coming off a win, the Lions are still undefeated with a caveat that they have a tie from week 1.

Oakland Raiders @ Minnesota Vikings (-9) – Derek Carr looked ugly against the Kansas Chiefs who do not boast a great defense.  Josh Jacobs has been sick and lost 10 pounds, is dealing with a groin injury and may not play that much if the Raiders fall behind.  Dalvin Cook looks continue performing like a top 5 running back.  Cousins may have been underwhelming against the Packers but may not need to be if Minnesota slows down the Raiders, like they did the Falcons. 

Miami Dolphins @ Dallas Cowboys (-23) – Josh Rosen gets his first start with – moving from one bad franchise to cardinals to an even worse one on paper with the Dolphins who some are saying could go 0-16.  The dolphins have already been outscored 102-10 through the first 2 weeks.



Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-6) @ NY Giants – Jameis Winston was much better against the Bucs.  Peyton Barber may be the starting running back over Ronald Jones. Daniel Jones makes his debut against a Bucs defense that has already contained Jimmy G of the 49ers and Cam Newton of the Panthers.  Daniel Jones could be good although without reliable receivers things could get dicey.

Carolina Panthers @ Arizona Cardinals (-2.5)- Kyler Murray has been playing from behind and looks to get his 1st of win.  With Cam Newton possibly out, Kyle Allen gets his first matchup against a below average secondary but may not be able to take advantage. 

Pittsburgh Steelers @ San Francisco 49ers (-6.5)  – Mason Rudolph looked solid last week. Fitzpatrick a corner acquired from the Dolphins could help slow down slot receivers which could keep this game competitive.  That being said, many have been sleeping on the 49ers defense.

Houston Texans(+3) @ LA Chargers  –.  A battle of two great receivers in DeAndre Hopkins and Keenan Allen.  Austin Eckler has been a pleasant surprise at running back for the Chargers.   The Texans will look to rebound and get it going after their team struggled to get it going against a strong Jaguars defense.  

New Orleans Saints @ Seattle Seahawks (-4.5) – Seahawks secondary has been pretty weak this season but Russel Wilson has done enough to get done.  Payton is going to find a way to utilize his great offensive weapons in Thomas and Kamara.  Chris Carson had 2 fumbles last week but only had 3 fumbles for the entirety of last season.  Saints defense is elite in the redzone.  Terry Bridgewater still has to prove it for me after blowing a meaningless game against the Panthers who were playing without Cam Newton last season. 

LA Rams(-3)(LOCK) @ Cleveland Browns - Browns season in jeopardy against the Rams.  Both defense look sharp.   The Browns may be a tad overrated  after beating the Jets. 
Bears @ Washington Redskins(+4) – Case Keenum has been on fire this week.  Even though the Redskins are 1-15 and there may be more Bears fans in the stadium, I think the Bears offense has been pretty awful which leads me to take the home team in Washington.  Of course, if Mitch Trubisky finds his rhythm then things could not only get ugly for Washington in this game but for the season. 



Chicago Bears @ Washington Redskins(+4) – Case Keenum has been on fire this week.  Even though the Redskins are 1-15 and there may be more Bears fans in the stadium, I think the Bears offense has been pretty awful which leads me to take the home team in Washington given that they will be playing as a more desperate team.  Of course, if Mitch Trubisky finds his rhythm then things could not only get ugly for Washington in this game but for the season. 


2019 Season against the Spread- 19-14
2019 Season Straight Up- 23-10

2018 Season against the Spread- 112-107-7
2018 Season Straight Up- 137-86-2
2018 Locks- 21-16-2

2017-18 Against the Spread- 121-125-7
2017-18 Season Straight Up - 167-92

2016-17 Against the Spread - 141-115-7
2016-17 Straight Up - 101-41

2015-16 Against the Spread - 140-110  

Posted by at

No comments:

Post a Comment

Subscribe to: Post Comments (Atom)