Sunday, September 8, 2019

2019 Week 1 Picks

Brown isn't playing tonight
But the Patriots just got that much better

Atlanta Falcons @ Minnesota Vikings (-3.5) - One concern for the Falcons is their Atlanta’s offensive line which could be worsened as they played on the road.  Cousins on paper could have a big game and at least nothing big is on the line like a playoff spot.  Falcons by scheme allow a lot pass catches to the running back so this will be a good game to gauge Dalvin Cook’s value.  Minnesota has won the last 3 meetings against Atlanta.

Washington Redskins (+10) @ Philadelphia Eagles - It is a lot of points but Washington’s left side of the offensive line has been concerning with Trent Williams holding out.   Case Keenum returns to where his career fell off the tracks in a playoff loss to Eagles in the NFC Championship in 2018.  Jordan Reed is out so the Redskins although they are featuring interesting young weapons including Guice who makes Peterson a healthy scratch.  Carson Wentz will probably be a bit rusty since he didn't take a snap in preseason.  Philadelphia have won 5 out 6 games including the last 2 by double digits although Washington is much healthier in this opener.

LA Rams (-2) @ Carolina Panthers - Todd Gurley appears to be back to 100% at least in the short term and the Rams will also get back Cooper Kupp, who they desperately could have used against the Patriots.  The Panthers have done well against non-divisional opponents so this game could go either way.  

Buffalo Bills (+2.5) @ NY Jets - The Bills defense should travel well. Robbie Anderson is injured. Sam Darnold second year. LeVeon Bell is fresh off a whole season of holding out.   

Baltimore Ravens (-7) @ Miami Dolphins - Ravens are 8-2 in September since 2016.  It will be interesting if the Dolphins will follow the Chargers blueprint in slowing down Jackson and if the Lamar Jackson improved his game.  Miami also appears to be tanking.

San Francisco 49ers @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-1) - This could be a test game for Jameis Winston with Bruce Arians with good weapons like Mik Evans, Chris Godwin from the slot, and tight end OJ Howard.  Dante Pettis after having a tumultuous offseason could have his opportunity if this game becomes ugly.  

Kansas City Chiefs @ Jacksonville Jaguars (+3.5) - The Chiefs blew out the Jaguars although Mahomes did have his worst game of the season and didn't throw an interception.  

Tennessee Titans @ Cleveland Browns (-5.5)(LOCK) - The Browns hype train leaves the station with a 5.5 point favorites and Tony Romo calling the game.  Odell Beckham is not 100 percent with a hip flexor.  Pro bowl left tackle for the Titans is out.  

Detroit Lions (-2.5) @ Arizona Cardinals - This could be a big game for offensive weapons of the Chargers including Kerryon Johnson, Marvin Jones, and Kelly Golladay.   Kyler Murray looked a bit rusty when encountered by the blitzing Raiders so perhaps week 1 could be a true test of what he can do although now Murray has the freedom to run the ball.  

Cincinnati Bengals @ Seattle Seahawks (-9.5) (LOCK) - Bengals defense was one of the worst last season and their offense could struggle against the 12th man.  Look for Seattle to rely heavily upon the run.  The Bengals will look to target Boyd and will have to carry the offense with a team already missing their less left tackle. 

Chris Carson closed out the season strong.  Clowney looks to have impressive debut with Seattle's defense.   


Indianapolis Colts (+6.5) @ LA Chargers - Jacoby Brisset is a sneaky running quarterback who doesn’t commit turnovers but the Chargers defense is tough.  It will be interesting to see how well Mack and Hilton.  Doyle will likely be out there for more snaps but look for Eric Ebron to get more touches in the red zone.  This will be a chance for tight end Hunter Henry to step up with the departure of Antonio Gates. 


NY Giants @ Dallas Cowboys (-7.5) - Eli Manning has had a lot of good games in Cowboys stadium but his wide receiving corps seems to deplete with Golden Tate suspended.   Dak was a top rated quarterback after Amari Cooper was added.  Perhaps Gallup may have a bigger role in this game since Amari Cooper is dealing with plantar fascitis.  The return of Ezekiel Elliott could make it tough for the Giants.  



Pittsburgh @ New England Patriots (-5.5) - Sony Michel looks to continue his rushing of 100 yard games after.  New England traditionally takes away the #1 option so JuJu may not have a great game while the Steelers may rely more upon James Conner.   

Houston Texans (+7) @ New Orleans Saints - This could be a big game for Kamara especially since the Texans are without Jadeveon Clowney.  The Texans have an outside chance to keep it close with Hopkins and Fuller plus for whatever the reason the Saints have struggled in the beginning of the season and usually hit their gear later.  

Denver Broncos (-2.5) @ Oakland Raiders - 
Phillip Lindsay played well last season but has to prove it with a new quarterback in Flacco and new head coach.  Emmanuel Sanders could have a decent game provided he can overcome his Achilles injury.  Darren Waller could have a good game for the Raiders especially since Derek Carr has the propensity not to throw the ball deep.  Josh Jacob the running back drafted in the 1st round, will make his debut. 


2019 Season against the Spread- 0-1
2019 Season Straight Up- 0-1

2018 Season against the Spread- 112-107-7
2018 Season Straight Up- 137-86-2
2018 Locks- 21-16-2

2017-18 Against the Spread- 121-125-7

2017-18 Season Straight Up - 167-92

2016-17 Against the Spread - 141-115-7
2016-17 Straight Up - 101-41

2015-16 Against the Spread - 140-110  

No comments: