Sunday, September 15, 2019

Week 2 Picks


Gardner Minshew who replaces 
Nick Foles of Jaguars has a lot of confidence


Italicized for win

Bolded for spread


Arizona Cardinals @ Baltimore Ravens (-13) -  Kyler Murray could have an OK week.  But the Cardinals defense gave up a lot of points last week.  It had been 5 years since Larry Fitzerald caught a 40 yard pass but he caught two last week.  Tight end Mark Andrews missed practice but could have another big week.  Cardinals are 15-44 against the AFC all time.  Look for a similar offensive performance by Lamar Jackson plus the Ravens generally give opposing rookie QBs a tough time at home.  

LA Chargers (-2.5) @ Lions - Hunter Henry is out but Mike Williams returns.  Hockenson and Amendola had big weeks but Stafford is probably not going to throw it 45 times.  Kerryon Johnson had 21 carries last week but was unproductive.  This will be an interesting test for TJ Hockenson especially since the Chargers typically slow down the opposing tight ends.  

Indinapolis Colts @ Tennessee Titans (-3) -  Titans gave constant pressure to the Browns but largely due to the fact that the Browns were relying on their 3rd string left tackle.  The Titans still have a real homefield advantage in this one.  Derrick Henry has averaged 6 yards per carry in his career.  Titans were the 3rd best against the run last season and the Colts will still try to run the ball with Mack. Look for Eric Ebron to have a relatively big week against a Titans defense 

Dallas Cowboys (-5.5) @ Washington Redskins - Case Keenum was really good in the 1st half and even had a garbage time touchdown.  Although it is questionable how much of that was due to the Eagles being in a coma given that the Eagles turned it on in the 2nd half and one of the TDs that Keenum had happened in garbage. 

The Redskins defense is better than the Giants although they will be without Johnathan Allen.  The Cowboys also appear to be running a much better offense under offensive coordinator Kellen Moore.  Without a consistent pass rush, the Redskins could be in trouble.  

Seattle (+4) @ Pittsburgh - Big Ben and the Steelers are favored by more points than they scored last week.  Still, anticipate the bounceback game by Big Ben and the Steelers.  

Minnestota Vikings @ Green Bay Packers (-3) - Look For Rodgers to bounce back after a relatively poor showing against the Bears. 10 passes for Cousins was low; the Vikings will have to rely more on the air in this one.  Rodgers has had 24 touchdowns and 0 interceptions in his last 7 games against the Vikings, which include 6 wins and a tie.

Buffalo Bills (-1.5) @ NY Giants- Josh Allen looking to get his 2nd straight win in the same stadium.   Singletary could have a bigger week for the Bills.  Far from a lock given that Barkley could carry the giants to a win but the Giants receiving corp is even more banged up if Sterling Shepard is ruled out with a concussion.

Jacksonville Jaguars (+9) @ Houston Texans- The Texans appear to have trouble protecting Watson.  Leonard Founette is going to get a lot of carries.  Duke Johnson had double the amount of snaps last week than Hyde.  Stills who almost had a game winning TD.

San Francisco 49ers (+2) @ Cincinnati Bengals– Andy Dalton is at home threw the ball 50+ times last week.  But the 49ers did a good job slowing down the Bucs last week.  Jimmy Garrapolo also has room for improvement.

New England Patriots @ Miami Dolphins (+19) – New England is 1-5 in their last 5 games although the patriots secondary played lights out against the Steelers and Fitzpatrick could  throw some interceptions.  Antonio Brown could play.  Albert Wilson had 5 targets and 4 receptions.  

Kansas City Chiefs @ Oakland Raiders (+7.5)  – Could be a high scoring game given that Derek Carr has been high scoring.  Tryeek Hill is out.  Gruden’s game plan will be to slow the game although he may have to counter given the explosiveness of Kansas City's offense.

Chicago Bears (-1.5) LOCK @ Denver Broncos – Montgomerry may be more involved this week based on how well he played.   Bears defense could travel well especially against Joe Flacco. 

New Orleans Saints @ LA Rams (-2.5) – Brees looks to get revenge although the Rams will also be fueled by the fact that their win against the Saints was tainted.  Plus this game is outdoors and the warm weather could favor the Rams.  
  
Philadelphia Eagles (-1) @ Atlanta Falcons-  Wentz looked great last week and the Falcons have typically struggled against the Eagles.  Look for that trend to continue if Freeman continues to struggle.  

Cleveland Brown @ NY Jets (+6.5) – Sam Darnold got mono so now the Trevor Siemien will get the start. Even though the Jets employ a similar defense as that of the Titans which gave Mayfield trouble, so the Jets could do enough to keep it close. 


2019 Season against the Spread- 10-7
2019 Season Straight Up- 11-6

2018 Season against the Spread- 112-107-7
2018 Season Straight Up- 137-86-2
2018 Locks- 21-16-2

2017-18 Against the Spread- 121-125-7

2017-18 Season Straight Up - 167-92

2016-17 Against the Spread - 141-115-7
2016-17 Straight Up - 101-41

2015-16 Against the Spread - 140-110  

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