Sunday, November 25, 2018

Week 12 Picks

Newton vs Wilson features two quarterbacks 

Italicized for win
Bolded for spread





New York Giants +7 @ Philadelphia Eagles - Recency bias favors the Giants here as they are 2-0 in their last couple of games while the Eagles are enduring a 2 game losing streak.  The Eagles did demolish the Giants on Thursday night although this will likely be a closer game, it may be a game where Eli Manning plays poor like he did in his previous matchups as the Giants have failed to notch a division game so far this year.  The Eagles are without their top five defensive backs.  The Giants have not beaten the Eagles since 2014.

Jacksonville Jaguars @ Buffalo Bills(+3) - This should be a battle of defenses as it was in last seasons postseason matchup.  Sunday will be head coach's Doug Marrone's first time facing the Bills in Buffalo since his departure (Jags Wire USA Today). The Jaguars showed some of what made them a competitive team last year through 3 quarters but unlike last year's team was unable to finish the deal against Pittsburgh.  The Bills are looking a bit feisty after a blowout win against the Jets last week and look to continue that trend at home especially if their defense can shut down the Jaguars.








Seattle Seahawks @ Carolina Panthers (-3) - This is a battle of two team battling for wild card spots as their respective division leaders have taken commanding leads in the standings.  Seattle took advantage of Green Bay's mistakes but the Panthers look to bounce back after two straight losses.  Seattle's receivers also seem to struggle creating separation. 




Oakland Raiders @ Baltimore Ravens (-10.5) - While the Raiders came away with a win against the Cardinals, they will not be favored to win a game for the rest of the season.  Traveling from west to east also hurts them here especially against a Ravens team who is still in contention for a playoff spot, even if they have not been a strong home team this season.








San Francisco 49ers (+3) @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers - Both teams are reeling relatively, who have each lost to the Giants in the last few weeks.  Tampa Bay as the home team could win here especially since their offense got it going in the 2nd half last week against the Giants.  That being said, the 49ers' offense could put it together against one of the worst defenses in the league.









Cleveland Browns @ Cincinnati Bengals (-1) - Hue Jackson was fired by the Browns but now gets a chance to get revenge as an assistant coach of the Bengals.  That being said, the Bengals appear to be on the down swing without AJ Green but could have enough to pull out a win against the Browns as they remained competitive with the Ravens last week.





New England Patriots (-10.5) @ New York Jets - The Brady vs McCown matchup will be the second oldest starting quarterback since the merger according to ESPN. The Patriots get Gronkowski back and perhaps rookie running back Sony Michel has healed a bit coming off a bye.  The Jets are also coming off a bye but appear to be a mess in the Sam Darnold/Josh McCown era at this point but the Patriots have taken care of division rivals by big margins so far this season.  The Patriots are 39-14 after a loss since 2003 and 7-1 when favored by more than a field goal over their last 8.




Arizona Cardinals @ LA Chargers (-13) - The Cardinals lost to the Raiders last week and things do not get easier as they face a disgruntled Chargers team that lost to the Broncos last week.  The Chargers do seem to take care of opponents outside of their division.

Pittsburgh Steelers (-3) @ Denver Broncos - The Broncos are riding high after a win against the Chargers to keep their playoff hopes alive.  This could be a single score game in Denver but that being said the Broncos may not matchup well with a non-division rival.





Miami Dolphins @ Indianapolis Colts (-7.5)[LOCK] - The Dolphins are coming off a bye but it looks like the Colts have hit a different gear in this winning streak. The Dolphins also have injuries which means it will be tough to keep pace with the Colts if this game becomes high scoring.

Green Bay Packers (+3) @ Minnesota Vikings - The Packers appear to be in dissarray from Aaron Rodgers missing easy throws to head coach MccCarty not going for it on crucial 4th down plays.  This doesn't seem to be the Packers year but it also appears that these two teams are fairly evenly matched as indicated by their tie earlier in the season.

Tennessee Titans (+6) @ Houston Texans - Houston is favored here- the Titans are not as bad as their loss against the Colts would indicate.

Week 12 Against the Spread: 1-2
Week 12 Straight Up: 3-0


2018 Season against the Spread- 75-70-4
2018 Season Straight Up- 89-56-2
2018 Locks- 11-8-2

2017-18 Against the Spread- 221-225-7
2017-18 Season Straight Up - 167-92

2016-17 Against the Spread - 141-115-7
2016-17 Straight Up - 101-41

2015-16 Against the Spread - 140-110   
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