Sunday, November 18, 2018

NFL Week 11 Picks

Heinz offers Mahomes Ketchup for life 

if he scores 57 TDs (KCTV)

Italicized for win
Bolded for spread





Tennessee Titans @ Indianapolis Colts (-1) - Andrew Luck is 9-0 in his career against the Titans although I don't recall Luck playing a Titans team this good.  The Titans shore up their defense with the return of linebacker Tom Compton.  The Colts will be without their starting safety Malik Hooker.  That being said, the Colts have been playing much better in their last 5 games. 

Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ NY Giants (-1.5) - The Bucaneers' turnover differential is a league's worst 19.  the Giants may actually come away with their second consecutive win if Eli Manning plays another solid game, who is only 2 years older than Ryan Fitzpatrick.

Pittsburgh Steelers (-5) @ Jacksonville Jaguars - The Steelers look to avenge their two losses last season against the Jaguars including one in the postseason.  The Jaguars offensive line is more banged up this time around and the Steelers are playing out of their minds





Carolina Panthers(-4) @ Detroit Lions - Mike Patricia apparently practiced his players outside while he plays his next game indoor.  Stafford has been 16 sacked times in his last 2 games and Marvin Jones is out. The Panthers have had more time to prepare for this one coming off a Thursday Night game. 

Dallas Cowboys @ Atlanta Falcons (-3.5) -  Jason Garrett has started to go for more on 4th down with a fake punt and 4th and 2.  That being said, the Falcons will look to get it back together at home after a loss to the Browns.





Cincinnati Bengals @ Baltimore Ravens (-4) - Flacco is doubtful in this one.  While some fans are chanting for RG3, Lamar Jackson is likely to make his first start.  The Bengals did beat the Ravens earlier this season but will be without AJ Green.

Houston Texans(-3) @ Washington Redskins - Josh Norman and DJ Swearinger have called out the home fans.  Norman has even bought 50 fans tickets to this game.  The Texans will be tough coming off a bye where the Redskins struggled to beat the Falcons who both had explosive wide receivers.  he banged up offensive line for the Redskins probably gives the Texans the edge in this one.

Oakland Raiders (+5) @ Arizona Cardinals  - This is realistically the Raiders most winnable game on their schedule while the Cardinals are 2-0 against Bay area teams.

Denver Broncos (+7) @ LA Chargers - The Chargers covered against a bad Raiders team last week  However, the Broncos coming off a bye and playing a division rival could do enough to keep it close, especially if Denver fans manage to get to the game. 





Philadelphia Eagles @ New Orleans Saints (-8)(LOCK) - The Eagles secondary is a mess and was unable to slow down the Dallas Cowoys last week.  The Saints were also an unstoppable force managing to score 51 points against the Bengals.  There is a pathway for the Eagles to make it close but overall the Eagles offense has not looked sharp meaning the Saints will likely defeat the Eagles by a decent margin. 

Minnesota Vikings @ Chicago Bears (-3) - Minnesota is coming off a bye but Adam Thielen is a little banged up.  The Bears defense could present Cousins problems especially with the crowd noise. 





Kansas City Chiefs(+3.5) @ LA Rams  -  This is a tossup game especially since the Chiefs may actually have homefield advantage in this one.  Cooper Kupp being out gives me pause but the Rams do have a better defense.  Overall, the Chiefs are slightly more explosive offensively which ultimately gives the a very narrow edge in this game. 


Week 11 Against the Spread: 0-0-1
Week 11 Straight Up: 1-0
Week 11 Locks: 0-0-1

2018 Season against the Spread- 67-63-4
2018 Season Straight Up- 79-51-2
2018 Locks- 10-8-2

2017-18 Against the Spread- 221-225-7

2017-18 Season Straight Up - 167-92

2016-17 Against the Spread - 141-115-7
2016-17 Straight Up - 101-41

2015-16 Against the Spread - 140-110   

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