Thursday, November 29, 2018

Thoughts on Jerry Maguire Rewatch and Week 13 Thursday Night Pick

Here is Tom Cruise pictured with Dan Snyder.

Here are some random thoughts that I had about rewatching Jerry Maguire in 2018

- Given that Tom Cruise has gotten more eccentric, part of his portrayal of Jerry Maguire seemed a bit like a documentary rather than great acting.

-I am still unsure how Bidwell, played by Cuba Gooding Jr., increased his value from $1.4 million over 4 years to $11 million over 4 years and all guaranteed.  His first contract offer is underwhelming given that he was the leading receiver of the team. By the way, I can also imagine that Cuba Gooding Jr. was mimicking Tom Cruise in this movie to portray the energetic but misunderstood football player.

- The final sequence that raises Bidwell's value is catching a ball for a touchdown, and receiving a hit that left him unconscious and then expressing joy afterwards gives insight to how much people view football differently.  Tidwell is regarded as a grouch for most of the movie but after celebrating, he is viewed as a great team guy.  Perhaps this seems a bit weird given the issues with CTE that the NFL has today and if Bidwell suffered a hit today, he would probably see less money.  Instead, Bidwell gets a fully guaranteed contract for showing "heart" on the field.

- John Elway at the end of the game complains about how much he wants an agent like Jerry Maguire.  First off, why is John Elway hanging out watching this Monday Night Football game between the Arizona Cardinals and the Dallas Cowboys?  Also, John Elway called his defense soft last season; perhaps he only tolerates wide receivers crying post game.

- When Jerry Maguire flirts excessively on Dorothy Boyd, he references that "he didn't want to get all Clarence Thomas on her".  Perhaps a remake would feature jokes on Brett Kavanaugh and how much Jerry Maguire likes beer.  


New Orleans Saints (-7) @ Dallas Cowboys - The Saints are right now 3-0 so far against the NFC East, although theoretically the Cowboys can put up a better fight than all of them given that the Saints are on the road and the Cowboys are significantly better than the Giants who the Saints beat by 15 points.  That being said, the Saints appear to be clicking on all cylinders and a double digit win would not surprise me given how the Saints have been steamrolling everyone. 

Week 12 Against the Spread: 6-8
Week 12 Straight Up: 9-6

2018 Season against the Spread- 80-76-4
2018 Season Straight Up- 96-61-2
2018 Locks- 11-9-2

2017-18 Against the Spread- 221-225-7
2017-18 Season Straight Up - 167-92

2016-17 Against the Spread - 141-115-7
2016-17 Straight Up - 101-41

2015-16 Against the Spread - 140-110   
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Sunday, November 25, 2018

Week 12 Picks

Newton vs Wilson features two quarterbacks 

Italicized for win
Bolded for spread





New York Giants +7 @ Philadelphia Eagles - Recency bias favors the Giants here as they are 2-0 in their last couple of games while the Eagles are enduring a 2 game losing streak.  The Eagles did demolish the Giants on Thursday night although this will likely be a closer game, it may be a game where Eli Manning plays poor like he did in his previous matchups as the Giants have failed to notch a division game so far this year.  The Eagles are without their top five defensive backs.  The Giants have not beaten the Eagles since 2014.

Jacksonville Jaguars @ Buffalo Bills(+3) - This should be a battle of defenses as it was in last seasons postseason matchup.  Sunday will be head coach's Doug Marrone's first time facing the Bills in Buffalo since his departure (Jags Wire USA Today). The Jaguars showed some of what made them a competitive team last year through 3 quarters but unlike last year's team was unable to finish the deal against Pittsburgh.  The Bills are looking a bit feisty after a blowout win against the Jets last week and look to continue that trend at home especially if their defense can shut down the Jaguars.








Seattle Seahawks @ Carolina Panthers (-3) - This is a battle of two team battling for wild card spots as their respective division leaders have taken commanding leads in the standings.  Seattle took advantage of Green Bay's mistakes but the Panthers look to bounce back after two straight losses.  Seattle's receivers also seem to struggle creating separation. 




Oakland Raiders @ Baltimore Ravens (-10.5) - While the Raiders came away with a win against the Cardinals, they will not be favored to win a game for the rest of the season.  Traveling from west to east also hurts them here especially against a Ravens team who is still in contention for a playoff spot, even if they have not been a strong home team this season.








San Francisco 49ers (+3) @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers - Both teams are reeling relatively, who have each lost to the Giants in the last few weeks.  Tampa Bay as the home team could win here especially since their offense got it going in the 2nd half last week against the Giants.  That being said, the 49ers' offense could put it together against one of the worst defenses in the league.









Cleveland Browns @ Cincinnati Bengals (-1) - Hue Jackson was fired by the Browns but now gets a chance to get revenge as an assistant coach of the Bengals.  That being said, the Bengals appear to be on the down swing without AJ Green but could have enough to pull out a win against the Browns as they remained competitive with the Ravens last week.





New England Patriots (-10.5) @ New York Jets - The Brady vs McCown matchup will be the second oldest starting quarterback since the merger according to ESPN. The Patriots get Gronkowski back and perhaps rookie running back Sony Michel has healed a bit coming off a bye.  The Jets are also coming off a bye but appear to be a mess in the Sam Darnold/Josh McCown era at this point but the Patriots have taken care of division rivals by big margins so far this season.  The Patriots are 39-14 after a loss since 2003 and 7-1 when favored by more than a field goal over their last 8.




Arizona Cardinals @ LA Chargers (-13) - The Cardinals lost to the Raiders last week and things do not get easier as they face a disgruntled Chargers team that lost to the Broncos last week.  The Chargers do seem to take care of opponents outside of their division.

Pittsburgh Steelers (-3) @ Denver Broncos - The Broncos are riding high after a win against the Chargers to keep their playoff hopes alive.  This could be a single score game in Denver but that being said the Broncos may not matchup well with a non-division rival.





Miami Dolphins @ Indianapolis Colts (-7.5)[LOCK] - The Dolphins are coming off a bye but it looks like the Colts have hit a different gear in this winning streak. The Dolphins also have injuries which means it will be tough to keep pace with the Colts if this game becomes high scoring.

Green Bay Packers (+3) @ Minnesota Vikings - The Packers appear to be in dissarray from Aaron Rodgers missing easy throws to head coach MccCarty not going for it on crucial 4th down plays.  This doesn't seem to be the Packers year but it also appears that these two teams are fairly evenly matched as indicated by their tie earlier in the season.

Tennessee Titans (+6) @ Houston Texans - Houston is favored here- the Titans are not as bad as their loss against the Colts would indicate.

Week 12 Against the Spread: 1-2
Week 12 Straight Up: 3-0


2018 Season against the Spread- 75-70-4
2018 Season Straight Up- 89-56-2
2018 Locks- 11-8-2

2017-18 Against the Spread- 221-225-7
2017-18 Season Straight Up - 167-92

2016-17 Against the Spread - 141-115-7
2016-17 Straight Up - 101-41

2015-16 Against the Spread - 140-110   
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Thursday, November 22, 2018

Week 12 Thanksgiving Picks

Colt McCoy's only win as a starter with
 Washington came against the Cowboys

Italicized for win
Bolded for spread




Chicago Bears (-3) @ Detroit Lions - This is a battle of attrition on a short week where Bears starting quarterback Mitchell Trubisky is out as well as Lions starting running back Kerryon Johnson and wide receiver Marvin Jones. Chase Daniel makes his first start since 2014.  In 2013, he filled in nicely for the Chiefs as a backup then to Alex Smith as the Chiefs beat the Redskins 45-10.  Daniel has never thrown for more than a TD in game but he has a more than capable running game and defense to help him out.  The Lions have wins against the Patriots and Panthers but also have lost to the Jets and 49ers. 





Washington Redskins (+7.5) @ Dallas Cowboys - The dropoff between Alex Smith and Colt McCoy may be overstated in this line.  Dallas is also traveling from Atlanta to Dallas.  The Cowboys are coming off a win against the Falcons who easily dismantled Washington coming off a bye.  The Redskins are coming off a loss to the Texans team that also beat Dallas earlier in the season.  When McCoy was inserted into the game, Washington outscored the Texans 14-6. The Cowboys did lose a nail biter to Washington earlier in the season.  Pro bowl offensive lineman Trent Williams could be back which could give Washington a much needed boost in what could decide the division.






Atlanta Falcons (+12) @ New Orleans Saints - The Saints appear to be an unstoppable freight train while the Falcons cannot appear to slow down anyone after consecutive losses to the Browns and Cowboys.  The loss to Dallas is more frustrating given that it happened at home and their defense did enough to slow down Dallas.  Strange things can happen in a division rivalry so perhaps the Falcons can keep the game competitive.


Week 11 Against the Spread: 7-5-1
Week 11 Straight Up: 8-5
Week 11 Locks: 1-0-1

2018 Season against the Spread- 74-68-4
2018 Season Straight Up- 86-56-2
2018 Locks- 11-8-2

2017-18 Against the Spread- 221-225-7
2017-18 Season Straight Up - 167-92

2016-17 Against the Spread - 141-115-7
2016-17 Straight Up - 101-41

2015-16 Against the Spread - 140-110   
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Sunday, November 18, 2018

NFL Week 11 Picks

Heinz offers Mahomes Ketchup for life 

if he scores 57 TDs (KCTV)

 Italicized for win
Bolded for spread





Tennessee Titans @ Indianapolis Colts (-1) - Andrew Luck is 9-0 in his career against the Titans although I don't recall Luck playing a Titans team this good.  The Titans shore up their defense with the return of linebacker Tom Compton.  The Colts will be without their starting safety Malik Hooker.  That being said, the Colts have been playing much better in their last 5 games. 

Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ NY Giants (-1.5) - The Bucaneers' turnover differential is a league's worst 19.  the Giants may actually come away with their second consecutive win if Eli Manning plays another solid game, who is only 2 years older than Ryan Fitzpatrick.

Pittsburgh Steelers (-5) @ Jacksonville Jaguars - The Steelers look to avenge their two losses last season against the Jaguars including one in the postseason.  The Jaguars offensive line is more banged up this time around and the Steelers are playing out of their minds





Carolina Panthers(-4) @ Detroit Lions - Mike Patricia apparently practiced his players outside while he plays his next game indoor.  Stafford has been 16 sacked times in his last 2 games and Marvin Jones is out. The Panthers have had more time to prepare for this one coming off a Thursday Night game. 

Dallas Cowboys @ Atlanta Falcons (-3.5) -  Jason Garrett has started to go for more on 4th down with a fake punt and 4th and 2.  That being said, the Falcons will look to get it back together at home after a loss to the Browns.





Cincinnati Bengals @ Baltimore Ravens (-4) - Flacco is doubtful in this one.  While some fans are chanting for RG3, Lamar Jackson is likely to make his first start.  The Bengals did beat the Ravens earlier this season but will be without AJ Green.

Houston Texans(-3) @ Washington Redskins - Josh Norman and DJ Swearinger have called out the home fans.  Norman has even bought 50 fans tickets to this game.  The Texans will be tough coming off a bye where the Redskins struggled to beat the Falcons who both had explosive wide receivers.  he banged up offensive line for the Redskins probably gives the Texans the edge in this one.

Oakland Raiders (+5) @ Arizona Cardinals  - This is realistically the Raiders most winnable game on their schedule while the Cardinals are 2-0 against Bay area teams.

 Denver Broncos (+7) @ LA Chargers - The Chargers covered against a bad Raiders team last week  However, the Broncos coming off a bye and playing a division rival could do enough to keep it close, especially if Denver fans manage to get to the game. 





Philadelphia Eagles @ New Orleans Saints (-8)(LOCK) - The Eagles secondary is a mess and was unable to slow down the Dallas Cowoys last week.  The Saints were also an unstoppable force managing to score 51 points against the Bengals.  There is a pathway for the Eagles to make it close but overall the Eagles offense has not looked sharp meaning the Saints will likely defeat the Eagles by a decent margin. 

Minnesota Vikings @ Chicago Bears (-3) - Minnesota is coming off a bye but Adam Thielen is a little banged up.  The Bears defense could present Cousins problems especially with the crowd noise. 





Kansas City Chiefs(+3.5) @ LA Rams  -  This is a tossup game especially since the Chiefs may actually have homefield advantage in this one.  Cooper Kupp being out gives me pause but the Rams do have a better defense.  Overall, the Chiefs are slightly more explosive offensively which ultimately gives the a very narrow edge in this game. 


Week 11 Against the Spread: 0-0-1
Week 11 Straight Up: 1-0
Week 11 Locks: 0-0-1

2018 Season against the Spread- 67-63-4
2018 Season Straight Up- 79-51-2
2018 Locks- 10-8-2

2017-18 Against the Spread- 221-225-7
2017-18 Season Straight Up - 167-92

2016-17 Against the Spread - 141-115-7
2016-17 Straight Up - 101-41

2015-16 Against the Spread - 140-110   
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Thursday, November 15, 2018

Week 11 Thursday Night Pick

Italicized for win
Bolded for spread


Green Bay Packers @ Seattle Seahawks (-3)[LOCK] - Russell Wilson and Aaron Rodgers are 3-3 against one another.  Neither one has won a game on the road in this underrated rivalry. The odds for Aaron Rodgers to do it on a Thursday Night are lower given that the home team is 7-2 on Thursday Night coming off a Sunday game.

Both teams are banged up and the loser will have a steep climb to make the playoffs.  Both the Packers and Seahawks have had close losses to the Rams.  While the Packers blew out the Dolphins by 19 points, the Dolphins have lost their last 4 road games by at least 10 points.  Seattle's 1-2 record at home is deceptive given that their two losses came against Rams and Chargers; the two LA teams have two of the four best records in the league.  The Packers are also winless on the road so far this season. 

Week 10 Against the Spread: 7-7
Week 10 Straight Up: 7-7
Week 10 Locks: 0-1

2018 Season against the Spread- 67-63-3
2018 Season Straight Up- 78-51-2
2018 Locks- 10-8-1

2017-18 Against the Spread- 221-225-7
2017-18 Season Straight Up - 167-92

2016-17 Against the Spread - 141-115-7
2016-17 Straight Up - 101-41

2015-16 Against the Spread - 140-110   
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Sunday, November 11, 2018

Week 10 NFL Picks

Detroit Lions (+6.5) @ Chicago Bears  -  The Lions gave up 11 sacks last week in a loss to the Vikings.  Khalil Mack and Allen Robinson practiced this week and will likely play.  Mitch Trubisky looks to win his first division game in 7 starts.






New Orleans Saints (-5.5) @ Cincinnati Bengals  - Saints are in a letdown spot.  The Bengals are coming off a bye. Newly out Dez Bryant is out with an Achiles injury. That being said, AJ Green is out which severely limits the explosiveness of their offense. 

Atlanta Falcons (-4) at Cleveland Browns - The Falcons picked up Bruce Irvin from the Raiders.  The Falcons offense looked unstoppable against Washington and look to get its 2nd consecutive road win. 

Jacksonville Jaguars (+3.5) @ Indianapolis Colts - A must win for both teams who are both coming off byes.  Leonard Fournette is coming back off a hamstring injury. 

Arizona Cardinals @ Kansas City Chiefs (-16) - The Chiefs typically win games by this margin at home and the Cardinals appear to be one of the worst teams in the league and could struggle even coming off a bye. 




Buffalo Bills @ New York Jets(-6.5)  - Matt Barkley will start over Nathan Peterman which could mean a slight upgrade for the Bills but probably not enough for them to beat the Jets who will start Josh McCown. 

Washington Redskins @ Tampa Buccaneers (-1.5) - Washington goes on the road after a loss. Typically Fitzpatrick has regressed in his 3rd start and this could be the week.  Otherwise Washington's playoff hopes could take a hit who cannot score.  Oddly enough, there have not been any lead changes for Washington this season so it would be in their best interest to score first.  The Redskins offensive line injuries make me reluctant to pick them here. 

New England Patriots @ Tennessee Titans (+7) - The Titans could keep it close after an impressive win against Dallas.  Vrabel the head coach used to play with the Patriots and also has former Patriots Dion Lewis and Malcolm Butler. 

Los Angeles Chargers (-10) @ Oakland Raiders - It looks like the Raiders have decided to tank after that performance against the 49ers but could show up in a division rival.  Even then, the Chargers beat the Raiders by 16 points earlier this season. 

Miami Dolphins @ Green Bay Packers (-9) -  Aaron Rodgers is dissatisfied with how vanilla the offense is according to Mike Lombardi of The Athletic.   Brock Osweiler and the Dolphins might give the Packers a few scores.  Packers look to bounce back after facing the Rams and Patriots.

Seattle Seahawks (+10) @ Los Angeles Rams - The Rams should bounce back after a loss to the Saints in order to keep pace with the New Orleans Saints.  That being said, the Seahawks have to approach this game as a must win game to stay alive in the postseason   The Seahawks only lost their first game to Rams by 2 points.

Dallas Cowboys @ Philadelphia Eagles (-7)[LOCK] - The Eagles are coming off a bye and will look to utilize newly acquired Golden Tate.  Sean Lee is out for 4 weeks. 

New York Giants @ San Francisco 49ers (-3) - Nick Mullens looks to win his 2nd primetime game in his 2nd week. 

Week 10 Against the Spread: 1-0
Week 10 Straight Up: 1-0

2018 Season against the Spread- 61-56-3
2018 Season Straight Up- 65-42-2
2018 Locks- 10-7-1

2017-18 Against the Spread- 221-225-7
2017-18 Season Straight Up - 167-92

2016-17 Against the Spread - 141-115-7
2016-17 Straight Up - 101-41

2015-16 Against the Spread - 140-110   
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Thursday, November 8, 2018

Week 10 Thursday Night Pick















Carolina Panthers @ Pittsburgh Steelers (-3.5) - This is an interesting battle of two good teams with fairly explosive offenses that are both on winning streaks.  The Panthers have a higher ranked offense and defense.  That being said, the game is at Pittsburgh which favors the home team even more on a Thursday night.  

 Week 9 Against the Spread: 7-6
Week 9 Straight Up: 7-6
Week 9 Lock- 1-0

2018 Season against the Spread- 60-56-3
2018 Season Straight Up- 64-42-2
2018 Locks- 10-7-1

2017-18 Against the Spread- 221-225-7
2017-18 Season Straight Up - 167-92

2016-17 Against the Spread - 141-115-7
2016-17 Straight Up - 101-41

2015-16 Against the Spread - 140-110   
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Sunday, November 4, 2018

Week 9 Picks



Italicized for win
Bolded for spread







Kansas Chiefs (-8.5) @ Cleveland Browns- The Browns dismissed head coach  Hue Jackson and they also fired their offensive coordinator Todd Haley.  Gregg Williams makes his head coaching debut who was formerly the defensive coordinator for the Redskins but also was the defensive coordinator when Bountygate happenned in New Orleans where he was fired.  Theoretically the Browns could get a boost from firing their coach.  Cleveland has lead the league with 22 takeaways.  Andy Reid is 6-0 all time against the Browns, the only other teams he hasn't lost to are the teams he has coached; the Eagles and the Chiefs.  The Chiefs in the meantime look to pressure the Browns who have allowed the most sacks in the league at 33.  




New York Jets @ Miami Dolphins (-3) - The Dolphins already beat the Jets by double digits.  But that was when Ryan Tannehill was the quarterback and wide receivers Kenny Stills and Albert Wilson were healthy.  The Dolphins will now have to rely upon Brock Osweiler who threw for over 300 yards against the Bears but struggled against the Broncos.  The extra time coming off a Thursday Night game and playing at home against a rookie quarterback could give the Dolphins the edge.









Chicago Bears (-10) @ Buffalo Bills - Nathan Peterman makes his return to the starting lineup with Derek Anderson out with a concussion.  Mitchell Trubisky is the only quarterback since 1960 to throw for 2 plus passing touchdowns, 200+ passing yards, and 40+ yards in 4 consecutive games.   

 Pittsburgh Steelers (+3) @ Baltimore Ravens  - This game is a toss up. While the Ravens beat the Steelers fairly easily on the road earlier in the season, the Ravens have struggled defensively against Carolina.  Plus Pittsburgh looked fairly sharp last week, granted it was against a weak Browns team, so much so that the Browns fired their coach and offensive coordinator.  

 LA Chargers @ Seattle Seahawks (-1.5) - Russel Wilson has 16 touchdowns and 4 interceptions so far this season.  While the Chargers may be the a top notch NFL team, the Seahawks will look to get their running game going as their offensive line has improved since firing offensive line coach Tom Cable.  Chargers running back Melvin Gordon is also questionable for the game.

 Detroit Lions (+4.5) @ Minnesota Vikings  - Both teams laid eggs last week.  The Vikings are 1-3 against the spread at home including a weird loss to the Buffalo Bills while the Lions are 2-1.  The Lions did trade Golden Tate.  That being said the Lions have won their last two matchups against the Vikings so this could be a close game down the stretch.  




Atlanta Falcons @ Washington Redskins (-2) - Washington somehow put together a 3 game winning streak despite not scoring for more tan 24 points in the season.  The Falcons are coming off a bye; that being said their defense, having given up an average of 34 points in the past 4 weeks but do have the number one passing offense.  







Tampa Bay Bucanneers (+6.5) @ Carolina Panthers - Fitzpatrick makes his return to the starting quarberback after a great performance to tie the game against the Bengals.  While the Panthers have dominated at home against the Ravens, they usually keep their games close like they did against the Giants, Eagles, and Redskins.  




LA Rams(+1) @ New Orleans Saints -  The Rams pulled out a close win against Green Bay while the Saints beat the Vikings by double digits despite Drew Brees throwing for 120 yards, his lowest passing total as a Saint but mostly because the the Vikings were turnover prone ad the Saints have an excellent running game were able to score 30 points.   While the Saints could easily win this one, the Rams may come out on top because they have a better defense and I expect the Rams to play at another gear going against a potential NFC conference contender in what could decide homefield.  

 Houston Texans (+1) @ Denver Broncos - Demaryus Thomas was just traded from the Broncos to Texans.  He looks to become the 2nd receiver in NFL history to score a touchdown against his former team in the same season.  

Green Bay Packers @ New England Patriots (-6) LOCK - Aaron Rodgers and Tom Brady play for the 2nd time.  Rodgers did keep the Rams game close and could have potentially won the game down the stretch.  That being said, their seemed to be more Packer fans in the stadium.  



Tennessee Titans (+6) @ Dallas Cowboys - Amari Cooper makes his debut and could make the Cowboys ofense ore interesting.  That being said, the Titans like the Cowboys are also coming off a bye, and their defense could slow down the Cowboys offense which could make the game relatively close down the stretch.  

 Week 9 Against the Spread: 0-1
Week 9 Straight Up: 0-1

2018 Season against the Spread- 53-51-3
2018 Season Straight Up- 57-37-2
2018 Locks- 9-7-1

2017-18 Against the Spread- 221-225-7
2017-18 Season Straight Up - 167-92

2016-17 Against the Spread - 141-115-7
2016-17 Straight Up - 101-41

2015-16 Against the Spread - 140-110   
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Thursday, November 1, 2018

Thursday Night Week 9 Pick








Oakland Raiders (+3.5) @ San Francisco 49ers -  The Raiders will be without their number one wideout Amari Cooper who they traded to Dallas although they did manage to score 29 points.  Nick Mullens the 49ers 3rd string quarterback is going to start for the 49ers who has not taken a NFL snap.  The Raiders defense gave up 42 points last week but theoretically,  should fare better against Mullens than Andrew Luck. 

Week 8 Against the Spread: 9-4
Week 8 Straight Up: 10-3

2018 Season against the Spread- 53-50-3
2018 Season Straight Up- 57-36-2
2018 Locks- 9-7-1

2017-18 Against the Spread- 221-225-7
2017-18 Season Straight Up - 167-92

2016-17 Against the Spread - 141-115-7
2016-17 Straight Up - 101-41

2015-16 Against the Spread - 140-110   
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