Thursday, December 22, 2016

Week 16 Picks

My picks and my thoughts on the Wizards can also be found on Sports on the Hill at 14 min 06  sec mark.  My most up to date picks can be found here.


Head coach Ben McAdoo was fined for using a walkie-talkie

New York Giants (+1) @ Philadelphia -




  Philadelphia did play the Ravens close and return home, and it's a division rivalry game that favors the home team.  Still, the Giants defense has playing out of its mind over the past 9 weeks and the Eagles offense has been questionable especially since they have failed to log a win against a division opponent.  

Atlanta (-2.5) @ Carolina -



Julio Jones had 300 yards last time.  While it is a rivalry game, the Falcons are the superior offensive team.  The Panthers looked much better against Washington although they will likely be without Luc Keachly again.

Miami(+3.5) @ Buffalo -



Miami did come away with a win in cold weather conditions against the Jets and look to continue the trend.  The only team the Bills have beaten with a winning record is the 12-2 New England Patriots who were without Tom Brady.

Washington (-3) @ Chicago -



The Bears have lost 3 consecutive games by 3 points but all to division rivals.   Washington really needs this game although it could be tough.  Alshon Jeffery is back and Matt Barkely has been playing well.  A potential trap game for Washington, but they are still playing for a playoff birth.  

New York Jets @ New England (-16.5) - The Jets look like they are falling apart after a big loss to the Dolphins where the Patriots appear to be finding their rhythm.  New England will try to make up for a poor performance when they beat the Jets by less than a touchdown.  

San Diego (-5.5) @ Cleveland - San Diego kept it close against a Raiders team.  Nobody wants to lose to the Browns.  RG3 did beat the Chargers back in 2013 in OT.

Tennessee (5) @ Jacksonville - 

The Titans look to run the ball to victory like they did against Kansas City.

Brian Orakpo, who was just named to the pro bowl, leads the Titans defense 


Minnesota @ Green Bay (-6.5) -

 Rodgers and the Packers appear to found their stride.  The Vikings in the meantime are 2-7 after starting the season 5-0.

Indianapolis (+4) @ Oakland - While the Raiders are slight favorites at home, the Colts could keep it close given that their impressive road wins including against Pittsburgh and Green Bay.  

Tampa Bay @ New Orleans (-2) - New Orleans appears to have found its offensive bearings against the Cardinals and look to play spoiler in this one against the Bucaneers.  

San Francisco @ LA  (-3.5) -

In a battle of terrible teams, the Rams are at home and look to finally get Todd Gurley going.

Arizona (+8.5) @ Seattle - Arizona and Seattle re-match after a 6-6 tie- somehow both teams are playing better offensively.  Seattle does play much better at home although it could remain close because it is a division rivalry.

Cincinatti @ Houston (-1) -




Marvin Lewis now 8-22 against the Steelers all-time and have 9,479 days since their last playoff win.  Houston looks like a better team with Tom Savage and looks to utilize DeAndre Hopkins more against the Bengals defense.


Baltimore @ Pittsburgh (-5.5) - Big Ben and the Steelers look like a stronger team especially since the Ravens barely beat an Eagles.  This is a division game and the Ravens did beat the Steelers earlier this season.  Still, Big Ben looks much healthier since the first meeting but it is a division game.

Denver @ Kansas City (-4) - Both teams had disappointing losses.  Denver needs to keep its playoff hopes alive but their o-line has been sub-par and also have decided to shut down CJ Anderson.  

Detroit(+7) @ Dallas - Both teams are playing for a division title.  While the Lions are dealing with their share of injuries, the Lions could keep it within a touchdown against Dallas.

Last week against the spread: 8-8
Last week straight up: 12-4 
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Thursday, December 15, 2016

Week 15 Picks

My picks can also be found here on Sports on the Hill at 1h 49min 45 sec mark.  A few picks may have changed from then.  
The Rams move on from Jeff Fisher after a 42-14 loss to the Falcons.
LA (+15.5) @ Seattle  -



Both teams had terrible games last Sunday.  Russell Wilson lost for the 1st time in his career by more than 10 points.  Jeff Fisher has clinched his 11th losing season as head coach and that was enough to get him fired.

There are 4 teams in the NFL to score 10 points or less in at least 4 different games this season: Browns, Jets, Rams, and Seahawks.  Seattle may rebound although they did lose to the Rams this season earlier on the road.  And perhaps the Rams will play with a bit more fire now that Jeff Fisher is out.  

Miami (-2.5)@ New York Jets - Ryan Tanehill is out with a knee injury, Matt Moore could be a competent QB, Moore (16-9 TD as a starter) and has beaten the Jets before.    

Cleveland @ Buffalo (-10) - After losing to the Steelers, the Bills looks to put the clamps on RG3 lead Browns.  Perhaps Griffin will play better in the 2nd consecutive week, but the Browns problems run far deeper than that in their winless season.  

Detroit (+4.5) @ New York - Matthew Stafford has 8 winning drives this season.  The Giants defense has held off last minute winning drives in 8 of their 9 wins.  Something has to give.  

Philadelphia @ Baltimore (-6)- Baltimore looks to get back on track after losing to the Patriots to keep their playoff hopes alive.  Philadelphia is almost eliminated from postseason play and have been terrible on the road so far this season.  

Pittsburgh (3.5) @ Cincinnati - The Steelers are looking to complete the season sweep.  Leveon Bell didn't play the first time but neither did Burfict.   This time the Bengals will be without AJ Green and Bernard.  

Indianapolis @ Minnesota (-3.5) - The Colts may be without a few offensive weapons as TY Hilton and Donte Moncrieff miss practice.  Adrian Peterson could return this Sunday.  

Green Bay (6) @ Chicago - Chicago has been playing better and has played the Lions and Giants close in losses but the Packers looked like a well oiled machine against the Seattle and needs to win this game to keep its playoff hopes alive.  

Tennessee (+5.5) @ Kansas City - The Chiefs looks to cement itself as the best team in the AFC with a win on Sunday.  The Titans could make it a close game though as they are also eyeing a potential playoff spot.  

Jacksonville @ Houston (6)- Another battle of sub-par QBs; Osweiler vs Bortles.  The Texans have the edge because they have better receivers, a decent running game and a decent defense.

New Orleans @ Arizona (-2.5) - 

The Cardinals defense looks to continue that trend especially since the Saints have struggled on the road this season.

San Francisco @ Atlanta (-13.5) - No Julio Jones but the offense didn't suffer against the Rams especially with the emergence of Taylor Gabriel.  The 49ers did play the Jets close but the Falcons offense is a different beast.

New England (2.5) @ Denver - Rematch of the AFC championship game as the Patriots look to get revenge.  The Broncos offense has been sub-par over the past few weeks.

Oakland (3.5) @ San Diego - Bosa might be out for the Chargers.  The Raiders look to get back on track against a Chargers team that has struggled mightily over the past two weeks.

Tampa Bay (+7.5) @ Dallas - Dallas does need to win this game but the Bucaneers are one of the hottest teams in football and could make this game close.  

Carolina @ Washington (2.5)  - Washington did beat Eagles 27-22 , which is a good omen for them.  Minnesota and Atlanta are 2 teams that lost to the Eagles at Philadelphia and went on to beat Carolina.

Last year, Carolina beat Washington 44-16  although now Josh Norman is on Washington.  Cam Newton's accuracy has been significantly worse this season despite having Kelvin Benjamin back in the lineup.  The Panthers' defense has been suspect this season although they did play well last week against the Chargers.


Last week against the spread: 13-3
Last week straight up - 12-4
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Thursday, December 8, 2016

Week 14 Picks

My picks can also be found on the Sports on the Hill Podcast which is found at the 1h:43min mark. (My most up to date picks can be found here.)

Kansas City already beat Oakland 26-10 earlier this season.  

Oakland @ Kansas City (- 3) - 



Oakland had a sub-par effort against Buffalo and pulled it out lately while Chiefs with a close win against the Falcons.  It is still a rivalry game but the short week usually favors the home team.

Pittsburgh (-2) @ Buffalo - The Steelers are  are coming off an impressive double digit victory against the Giants while the Bills blew a double digit lead against the Raiders.   While Pittsburgh did beat the Giants at home, their road wins as of late include the Browns and the Colts without Andrew Luck. While the Steelers have laid eggs on the road, they have also come up big against teams like Washington.

San Diego @ Carolina (-1.5) - Both teams are coming off losses.  Luke Kuechly looks like he will be back which could be enough for the Panthers to slow down San Diego.

Cincinnati (-5.5) @ Cleveland-  The Bengals defense appears to have woken up against the Eagles and will look to feast on the Browns who are coming off a bye.  RG3 is coming back who lost to the Bengals in his rookie season.

Chicago(+8) @ Detroit- The Lions are playing good ball although the Bears did beat the Lions in OT earlier this season. That being said, Stafford and the Lions should still come away with a win but it could still a close game.

Houston (+6) @ Indianapolis - The Colts are the early favorites given that they have a stronger passing game and they are at home. But it could be a close game because they are division rivals.

Minnesota (-3) @ Jacksonville- After losing a game to the Cowboys due to some questionable officiating, the Vikings get a gift on the schedule. Coach Zimmer returns from surgery; the Jaguars are hoping Gus Bradley gets fired after losing a winnable game.

Arizona (+1) @ Miami - Arizona looks like the slight favorites here after putting together a solid performance.  The key for them will be to force timely turnovers against the Dolphins  and giving the ball to David Johnson, who had 175 all purpose yards against Washington.  The Redskins certainly regret taking Matt Jones over David Johnson in the 2015 NFL Draft.

Washington (-1) @ Philadelphia- Consider Washington the slight favorites although they will have to bring their A game even if the Eagles are struggling.  The Eagles have only lost one home game all year, and Cousins looked shaky last week against Arizona.  Still, Trent Williams returns and hopefully the game does not come down to a goal line fade.

Denver (+1) @ Tennessee - While the Titans are coming off a bye, Denver should be playing desperately if they want to make the playoffs

NY Jets (+2.5) @ SF - This might be the 49ers best chance at a win since week 1, although they struggled immensely against the Bears and the Jets are more than capable of beating the 49ers with superior wide receivers and a better running game.

New Orleans @ Tampa Bay (-2.5)- Tampa Bay passing game with Evans and Brate has helped Winston get it going. The Saints on the road aren't as good at home who just lost to the Lions.

Seattle @ Green Bay (+3)-



Weather could be a factor, still the Seattle showed it can beat a team like the Packers who have struggled to generate a pass rush.  Still, expect a close game that could go either way especially with Earl Thomas out.  This may be one of the best rivalries in the NFL.

Atlanta (-6) @ LA Rams - Atlanta looks to add another win against a n anemic Rams' offense.

Dallas (-3) @ NY Giants -  Look for the Cowboys to play hard against the Giants considering they are the only team that beat this year.

 Baltimore (+7.5) @ New England  - Ravens pulled in a great performance against the Dolphins.  It could be potentially a good game and the Ravens should keep it close especially since Gronk is out. I'm picking the Patriots to come away in a toss up game.

Last week against the spread: 9-6
Last week straight up: 9-6
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Thursday, December 1, 2016

Week 13 Picks

My picks can also be found on the Sports on the Hill Podcast which is found at the 1h:38min mark. (My most up to date picks can be found here.)

Top 3 teams are 12-5 at home and 16-0 on the road.

Dallas (-3) @ Minnesota -




Dallas has not lost since week 1 and now Sam Bradford is dealing with an ankle injury.  The Vikings may get Stefon Diggs back although the Cowboys are getting back safety Barry Church.

Detroit (+6) @ New Orleans  - Drew Brees over his last 7 games 331 ypg, 20 TDS, 5 interceptions, 115 QB rating.  While the Saints are slight favorites at home, expect a close game against Detroit.

LA (+13.5) @ New England -


Brady is also responsible for 40% of the Patriots all time wins

The Rams defense which gave up 49 points last week in New Orleans could be in trouble again as they face a high octane New England offense who looks to get back on track a bit against a non-division foe.  The Rams ratings in LA continue to be worse than when the Rams were in St. Louis.  Still, expect the Rams to potentially keep it close just because Gronkowski is out.

Denver (-3.5) @ Jacksonville - Denver comes off a tough OT loss to a division rival which was blown thanks to a muffed punt.  Talib was not pleased.  The Broncos' defense should be extra motivated against a Jacksonville team which has lost 6 straight.  Trevor Siemians is questionable with a foot injury.





San Francisco (+1) @ Chicago - Both teams lost relatively close games last week against AFC teams.  The Bears lost lineback Danny Trevathan for the season.   Loser of this game likely gets the 2nd pick.  The 49ers may win here even if Matt Barkely is playing well.  The 49ers have almost came away with wins against the Arizona and Miami and played the Patriots tough in a 13 point loss.

Houston @ Green Bay (-6.5) - Houston ultimately has problems putting up points.  They struggled against a Chargers team coming off a bye and will likely face cold weather and Aaron Rodgers.



Kansas City (+4.5) @ Atlanta  -




Atlanta has had a number of close game at home but did take care of business handily against the Cardinals.  Atlanta is still the favorite at home but it shouldn't be easy.


Miami @ Baltimore(-3.5) -







Miami has won 6 straight although they have not beaten a quality team on the road this season.   This is a big game in terms of playoff implications.  The Ravens in the meantime have gone the whole season without scoring 30 or more points, meaning that this game could be a low scoring affair.

Philadelphia (+1) @ Cincinnati - Consider the Eagles early favorites here even if Carson Wentz has struggled.  Since starting 3-0, with 5 touchdowns and no interceptions, Wentz has gone 2-6 and thrown 6 touchdowns and 8 interceptions.  Despite the Eagles road woes, they do have a good defense that can contain the Bengals without AJ Green.  Offensive play calling from the Bengals has been questionable lately.  Plus the Bengals kicking game has been terrible with Mike Nugent.

Buffalo @ Oakland (-3) - Oakland has its first winning season in 14 years.  Buffalo in the meantime, has two wins against relatively weak teams.  Oakland is the favorites although complacency could be an issue.  Led by Derek Carr and Khalil Mack, the Raiders hope to stay atop the AFC.

 Tampa Bay (+3.5) @ San Diego - Both teams came away with impressive wins; Tampa against Seattle and San Diego against Houston.  Jameis Winston has put himself as a candidate for the best young QB in the league and looks to take advantage of San Diego's weak defense.

New York Giants (+6) @ Pittsburgh Steelers -   NY is capable of coming away with a win but the Steelers to come together who have had extra rest off of a Thursday Night game.  The Giants could keep it close with Odell Beckham as a deep threat and a weak Pittsburgh secondary.

Washington (+2.5) @ Arizona -

Certainly a winnable game for Washington- while Palmer has been struggling, Johnson and Fitzgerald have been playing well.  Crowder and Washington could take advantage of the Cardinals poor special teams although Washington may be without Jordan Reed.

Carolina @ Seattle (-7) - Not much went right for the Seahawks in a 14-5 loss.  Still. the Seahawks are seeking revenge in the playoffs last season and the Panthers' have struggled to come away with wins.

Indianapolis (-1.5) @ NY Jets - The Colts should be the slight favorites with Andrew Luck expected to return as well as defensive end Trent Cole.  Questions still remain about Fitzpatrik who threw an interception on the Jets final drive.

Last week against the spread: 11-3-2
Last week straight up - 12-4
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