Week 12 Picks

My picks can also be found on the Sports on the Hill Podcast which is found at the 1h:50min mark. (A few of them may have changed!)

By wins and losses, Washington is the best team that Dallas has beaten so far this season.  

Minnesota @ Detroit (-1) -

#Vikings' pass rush came almost entirely from their four-man DL rush. Blitzed Palmer just four of 43 pass plays. Hit him 15 times (14 by DL)

— Andrew Krammer (@Andrew_Krammer) November 21, 2016

While Adrian Peterson may return in December, their running game at the present remains ineffective.  The Vikings did a good job in pressuring Carson Palmer.  However, the Lions are still favorites because Stafford is better than Palmer and Detroit has a better o-line as well as physical runner in Theo Riddick

The Lions have won three straight on Thanksgiving, outscoring their opponents 119-41 at Ford Field. The Vikings have never lost a Thanskgiving game although they are playing their first Thanksgiving game in Detroit since 1995.


Washington (+7) @ Dallas - Dallas had a 4 point win over Washington in week 2; nobody has played Dallas closer since.  Elliot has only gotten better since as Elliot two worst weeks were against Washington and New York to start the season.  Dalls is rounding into shape with Dez Bryant back.  It is a rivalry game that is already taking affect as Sua Cravens recently blocked his mom on Facetime because she is a Cowboys fan.

Yal thought I was playing??? Sorry momma ! #HTTR 🤘🏽 pic.twitter.com/dK30kCx7zF

— Su'a Cravens (@Sua_Cravens) November 21, 2016

Despite the short rest, expect a game that could go either way between division rivals with Dallas a slight favorite because of homefield.  While Washington could keep it close, they may be challenged by containing Dallas's running game as well as pressuring Dak Prescott into some mistakes.  It is a rivalry game where anything can happen so do not count Washington out who has now won 2 straight games coming out of their bye week.


Pittsburgh (-7) @ Indianapolis - The Colts are suddenly streaking after a couple of wins against the Titans and Packers who are below average.  The Steelers are reeling a bit even they did come away with a good win albeit against low Browns team.  Still, the Colts may be in for a long game without Andrew Luck.  Look for the Steelers to win comfortably here.


Tennessee (-4.5) @ Chicago -  Titans did struggle defensively against the Colts but the Bears are running out of offensive weapons with the young promising tight end Zach Miller being lost for the season and will also be without Jay Cutler.  Mariotta looking to get back piling up points against a Bears defense that is hit or miss.

Jacksonville @ Buffalo (-6) - Despite losing Robert Woods to a knee injury, the Bills look like they can still run the ball especially if McCoy manages to play this week coming off of a successful surgery.   The Jaguars did play the Lions close but  fell apart at the end.  The Jaguars are already talking about changing their coach.  5 of their losses have been by 7 points or less although things could get messy in the cold weather.

Cincinnati @ Baltimore (-3) - Giovanni Bernard is lost for the season and AJ Green is week to week.  Ravens blow an early lead to the Cowboys as they are susceptible to not having enough offensive weapons.  Justin Tucker is the last kicker who hasn't missed a field goal

Arizona @ Atlanta (-4)

Cardinals HC Bruce Arians is hospitalized with chest pain, sources tell ESPN. Tests so far have been “favorable”, according to one source.

— Adam Schefter (@AdamSchefter) November 21, 2016

Cardinals have also lost a number of games due to special teams.  Atlanta is coming off a bye as they looked to rectify some of their mistakes against an Eagles team.


New York Giants (-7) @ Cleveland - Cleveland has officially been eliminated from playoff contention.  The Giants look to keep pace in the compettive NFC East.

Landon Collins was PFF's worst-graded safety in coverage (of 188) last season. This season he's their highest graded safety in coverage.

— Scott Barrett (@ScottBarrettDFB) November 21, 2016

St. Louis @ New Orleans (-6) - Not a good sign for the Rams that Goff struggled even if it was rainy weather and against a good Miami defense.  The Saints put it together in the 2nd half against the Panthers to make it a close game, so expect them to play better at home.

San Francisco @ Miami (-7) - the 49ers showed some fight against the Patriots even though they eneded up losing by double digits.

San Diego @ Houston (+1.5) - San Diego is coming off a bye and the Texans have had a short week.  That being said,  the Texans are still at home and the Chargers have blown a number of winnable games.

Seattle (-6) @ Tampa Bay - Seattle is playing some good football although their defense will be tested more this week since the Eagles did not have any viable receivers to help out Carson Wentz.

#Bucs wide-receiver Cecil Shorts reveals story about Jameis Winston's letter to the team this week. This is a must hear.  #jameiswinston pic.twitter.com/ub0RQWWIK8

— Kevin ODonnell Fox13 (@ODonnellFox13) November 20, 2016

Seattle appears to be running better as Wilson ankle has healed as he caught a pass at wide receiver



Carolina @ Oakland (-3) - Oakland is one of the hottest teams in football.  Even if Carolina is coming off a win, they almost gave it up in the closing minutes of the game against hte Sainst.

Kansas City @ Denver (-4.5) - Denver is the early favorite here because of their defense and ability to limit Alex Smith's passing game

New England @ NY Jets (+7.5) - The Jets managed to beat the Patriots last year at home but even if the Patriots defense is struggling, it is hard to imagine that the Patriots will not win if Fitzpatrick as the starting QB.  That being said, the Jets are coming off a bye.

Green Bay (+4) @ Philadelphia
The Packers Being considered an elite team might be over.  And the Eagles have won all of their home games this season.  Aaron Rodgers has still been playing excellent football.  The Eagles receivers have been bad;  There is right now a petition to oust Nelson Agholor.   That being said, the Packers secondary has somehow been even worse as they have given up a huge number of deep throws against Washington last week.  This game could come down to the wire because of the Packers playmaking ability.

Last week against the spread: 9-4-1
Last week straight up - 11-3

Week 11 NFL Picks

My picks can also be found on the Sports on the Hill Podcast which is found at the 1h:47min 45 sec mark. (A few of them may have changed!)

Questions remain whether the Broncos stepped out of bounds in a game deciding play

New Orleans (+3.5) @ Carolina - Both teams had tough losses to AFC West teams and are evenly matched.  The Saints did manage to beat the Panthers in a shootout.  The Thursday night game generally favors the home team still the Saints are 2 blocked kicks away from being a six win team.  The Panthers have no sympathy given that 4 of their 6 losses were by a field goal or less.  
Pittsburgh (-8) @ Cleveland- The Steelers could not protect Big Ben at opportune times nor could they slow down Dallas's running attack.   Cleveland has been awful and Pittsburgh needs this game to stay alive in the postseason.

Baltimore (+7) @ Dallas - Dallas officially boasts the best record in the NFL.  While the Ravens have had time to prepare like Cleveland, the lack of a running game may hurt the Ravens here.  Still, the Ravens are a top defensive team and could keep it within the spread.

The Lions on a bye take the division lead

Jacksonville (+6.5) @ Detroit - Detroit is on a hot tear right now and watched all their division opponents lose on a bye and now find themselves in first place.  Jacksonville does not appear to be running the all enough and their latest loss to the Texans may have put head coach Gus Bradley on the hot seat.  I have the lions favored here although the Lions do tend to keep games close at home like in their win against Washington an OT loss to the Titans).

Tennessee @ Indianapolis Colts (-3) - The Titans offense is rolling having put up at least 35 points in their last 3 games.  The Titans did lose to the Colts though in week 7 34 to 26 and the Colts are this time at home and coming off a bye so I would consider the Colts slight favorites.

Buffalo Bills (4.5) @ Cincinnati - I would consider the Bills the slight favorites as they are coming off a bye.  On a side note Trump may not have been president if he bought the Buffalo Bills. Cincinnati will be coming off a short week against a Buffalo team with a scrambling QB decent wideouts and LeSean McCoy.

Arizona @ Minnesota (-2) - Arizona's offense is kind of anemic at this point. Even if they scored 20+ points it was still against the Cardinals.  The Vikings in the meantime may also be discouraged after failing to score in the 2nd half against the redskins.  I would consider this game a pure toss-up and would favor the Vikings at home but it may not be pretty to watch.  Still the Vikings have the worst defense which may lead me for them to get a close victory here.

Miami @ St. Louis (+1.5) -

The Rams after 8 games, Jeff Fisher era:
2012: 3-5
2013: 3-5
2014: 3-5
2015: 4-4
2016: 3-5

— Zach Whitman (@zjwhitman) November 7, 2016

Both teams are coming off road victories.  The Dolphins quality of their wins have been better against playoff quality team as including the Bills and the Chargers.  The Dolphins commitment to the run (ranked 6th in yards per game) will be the key in coming up on top.  Look for the Rams to get a boost from QB Jared Goff; the #1 overall pick from 2016 draft makes his first start.

Tampa Bay (+7.5) @ Kansas City -

.@Jaboowins running his 40 from the #NFLCombine…

TWICE before he actually throws the ball on this play. #CHIvsTB pic.twitter.com/7YU8OmXiOL

— NFL (@NFL) November 13, 2016

Both teams are coming off impressive wins.   The Bucs blew out the Bears handily while the Chiefs snuck away with a win against the Panthers.  Gholston has been key in manning Tampa's defense.  The Cheifs are still an excellent home team although they have had a few close wins against the Saints and Jaguars After New England's loss to the Seahawks, the Chiefs are currently in 1st.  Safety Eric Berry could make life difficult for Tampa who had a 42 yard TD.


Chicago Bears @ New York Giants (-6.5) - The Giants want to keep their playoff hopes alive after this Monday night game.  The Bears also lose Alshon Jeffery for four games.  Josh Howard is the lone bright spot who is averaging more yards per carry than Ezekiel Elliot.

Patriots (-13) @ San Francisco - Tom Brady returns home against the team of his youth.  Look for the Patriots to take out some frustration against the 49ers.  San Francisco did put together a good effort against the Cardinals which could give the 49ers some hope in keeping it somewhat close although Arizona's offense is nowhere nearly as good as the Patriots.  The 49ers may have had a few silver linings such as not giving up a 100 yard rusher and a 3 point loss in their last game.

Philadelphia @ Seattle (-6.5) -  The Eagles remain undefeated at home but will travel to a Seattle team that appears to have found their footing after a win against the Patriots.  I would be worried about a bit of a letdown from the Seahawks given they had a lot riding on getting revenge against the New England Patriots but Seattle homefield, Wentz struggles on the road (they are currently 1-3) might be too much if Seattle can find the creativity on offense that they showed.

Green Bay @ Washington (-2) - Washington offense line held up well enough without Trent Williams.  The Packers offense appeared to find their footing late against the Titans but it was not enough especially after a dismal showing by their defense who is now 0-3 without Clay Matthews.  Look for Washington to be motivated against this Packers team that eliminated them from the playoffs.

Houston @ Oakland (-5.5) (in Mexico City) - Oakland coming off a bye.  Mack should pressure Brock Osweiler into some bad throws.  Houston may be winning the AFC South but has not been tested against a quality team.

Week 10 against the spread: 6-8
Week 10 straight up: 5-9

Week 10 Picks

My picks can also be found on the Sports on the Hill Podcast which is found at the 1h:42min 45 sec mark.

Cleveland @ Baltimore (-7.5) -

Despite using 7 different QBs since his final start,
Johnny Manziel is still the last Cleveland Browns qb to win a game.

Baltimore is coming off an impressive win.  Cleveland is struggling because they are shorthanded.  A short week has typically been advantageous to the home team.

Kansas City (-2.5) @ Carolina - Consider the Chiefs favorites here given there impressive road wins.  The Panthers have won 2 straight but questions still remain about their offense which only mustered 13 points against the Rams.

Denver @ New Orleans (-3) - Saints have homefield while the Broncos offense has struggled lately.  

LA Rams @ NY Jets (-1.5) - Jets at home.  Rams on the road, both have week QBs, the jets have more offensive weapons, (Forte, Marshall) especially if Gurley is questionable to play.  

Aaron Rodgers calls out teammates; says squirrel was more exciting that the Packers

Green Bay (-2.5) @ Tennessee- Packers are coming off a disappointing loss. The Titans offense is playing well, could be a 1 score game but look for the Packers to respond with a win.

Atlanta (-2) @ Philadelphia -

Only three QBs have had a 120+ passer rating 3+ times this season: Matt Stafford (3 in 8 games), Matt Ryan (3 in 8), and Tom Brady (4 in 4).

— r/patriots (@rslashpatriots) October 31, 2016

Atlanta's wideouts might be too much for the eagles secondary. The eagles offense has not done a good job protecting Wentz since the suspension of Lane Johnson.  

Minnesota @ Washington (-2.5) - Washington is coming off a bye but will be without Trent Williams.   Minnesota is struggling as Sam Bradford has reverted to the mean.

Houston (+1.5) @ Jacksonville- Houston is the slight favorites coming off a bye and given how inconsistent the Jaguars offense has been.

Dallas @ Pittsburgh (-2.5) - Assuming the Big Ben can shake off the rust that he showed against the ravens, the Steelers have a good chance to upset the Cowboys given their ability to stop the run. It will be critical for the Steelers to force some turnovers.

Chicago (-1.5) @ Tampa Bay - Chicago is coming off a bye and has a number of young offensive weapons (Howard/Meredith) to pair with Cutler.  Tampa is struggling due to injuries to running backs and defense as well as inconsistent play by Winston.

Miami (+4.5) @ San Diego - San Diego with Rivers should exploit Miami's defense.  The Dolphins could be due for a letdown after a win but could keep it close.

San Francisco (+13.5) @ Arizona - Arizona is coming off a bye and the 49ers with Kapernick are still struggling.  Still, the 49ers could keep it close against the offensively challenged Cardinals.

Seattle @ New England (-7.5) - Tom Brady looks to get revenge against Seattle who beat new England back in 2013.  The Seahawks offense has been too inconsistent. 

Cincinnati @ New York Giants - Both have strong wide receivers.  Neither defense has been great.  The Bengals boast a better running game, offensive line and are coming off a bye week.  it will ultimately come down to which QB, Dalton or Manning have less mental errors.

Last week against the spread- 8-4-1
Last week straight up- 9-4

Week 9 Picks

My picks can also be found on the Sports on the Hill Podcast which is found at the 1h:35min 45 sec mark.

Big Ben looks to come back against the Ravens
His status remains questionable

Atlanta (-3.5) @ Tampa Bay - Atlanta looks for revenge against the Bucs who beat them earlier this season.  The Bucs defense have suffered more injuries this time around

Detroit (+6) @ Minnesota - A rivalry game that could be close especially since Minnesota's offense is struggling.  

Pittsburgh(-1) @ Baltimore - Big Ben is expected to play.  

NY Jets @ Miami (-3) - Miami coming off a bye and have already beaten the Bills at home. 

Dallas (-7) @ Cleveland- Dallas is streaking and the Browns may be one of the worst teams in football.

Jacksonville @ Kansas City (-7.5) - Blake Bortles has been inconsistent and Kansas City could pressure him into some turnovers.  Te Chiefs methodical offense could get it done, although the Chiefs did lose Charcandrick West to a concussion.   Wideout Tyreek Evans and Kelce are coming off big games and look to exploit a pourous Jacksonville defense that gave up 36 points last week.  

Philadelphia @ New York (-2.5) - The Giants are coming off a bye and look to exploit a relatively weak Eagles secondary and having Odell Beckham doesn't hurt.  The Giants defense only gave up 10 points last time against the Rams although will probably face a tougher test against the Eagles.

Carolina (-3) @ Los Angeles - 

Cam Newton has yet to draw a roughing the passer
penalty over the past 2 seasons

Carolina rebounded off the bye.  The Rams defense could make it close by pressuring Newton into some mistakes.  Still, Case Keenum hasn't been an average starting quarterback at this point as teams will continue to gear up to stop Gurley until Keenum becomes a more consistent quarterback.  

New Orleans (-3.5) @ San Francisco - The Saints are coming off a really good win against a Seattle team.  While the Saints have lost some really weird games this year and San Francisco is coming off a bye, the Saints should come up on top.

Tennessee @ San Diego (-4.5)  - The Chargers look to rebound from a tough loss against a good Broncos team.  I would consider Philips able to get it going against a below average Titans defense although the Chargers should be wary of the Titans who is 3rd in the NFL in rushing.  The Chargers' Travis Benjamin's status is uncertain

Indianapolis @ Green Bay (-7.5)  - Green Bay is looking to come up with a win after a tough loss to Atlanta down the stretch.  Indianopolis may have more success offensively against Green Bay than they did against the Chiefs but there defense is still a mess.

Denver @ Oakland - Denver should be the favorite here, Oakland should not be nearly as prolific as they were against an injury riddled Tampa team.  

Buffalo (+7) @ Seattle  - Both teams look to overcome tough losses. Seattle lost a shootout to the Saints and are now winless in their last two weeks.  Buffalo in the meantime couldn't defeat Tom Brady and the Patriots and now their chances of winning the division look small.  Seattle goes back home but it is hard to say how much separation they can create against a solid Bills' defense.