Thursday, September 5, 2024

2024 Week 1 NFL Picks


Lamar Jackson and the Ravens will look to run the ball 
this time around


 Bold-Spread

Italicized- Straight-up

Baltimore Ravens (+3) @ Kansas City Chiefs - The Ravens are aiming to get revenge for their playoff loss in the conference championship game where they were favored.  The Chiefs did turn up their defense a couple of gears to slow down the Ravens offense.  Now the Ravens acquired Derrick Henry. Kansas City does have homefield but maybe the Ravens can keep it close down the stretch and could be the more desperate team.

Green Bay Packers @ Philadelphia Eagles (-2.5)  (In Brazil)- The Packers almost made it to the conference championship game last season whereas the Eagles flamed out in epic fashion against the Bucs.   The Eagles have had an offseason to mull things over as they were able to get Saquon Barkley.  AJ Brown returns back healthy, and they traded for former Commanders’ wideout Jahan Dotson.  It will be interesting to see if the Eagles fixed their defense.

Pittsburgh Steelers (+3) @ Atlanta Falcons – The new look Falcons have Kirk Cousins behind center.  Rusell Wilson didn’t exactly inspire that much confidence with the Broncos.  Perhaps it will take a while for both teams to get it going with new offenses under center.  The Steelers defense may carry the day.

Tennessee Titans (+4.5) @ Chicago Bears - The Bears offense looks revamped with not only Caleb Williams but Rome Odunze.  The Titans lost Derrick Henry and are hoping for a comeback season from Tony Pollard. 

 

Arizona Cardinals @ Buffalo Bills (-5.5) - The Bills have a slightly better quarterback but theoretically Kyler Murray can hang with Allen given that the Cardinals may have more weapons on the outside.  The Bills appear to have a better running game with Cook and perhaps the defense of the Bills can step up at home. 

New England Patriots @ Cincinnati Bengals (-8) (LOCK) – The Patriots’ defense is supposed to be bad this season and even without Joe Mixon the Bengals offense should get it done.

 

Houston Texans (-3) @ Indianapolis Colts – Perhaps Richardson and Jonathan Taylor can keep it close with the Texans although the offense of the Texans should be much better with the addition of Steffon Diggs and Joe Mixon.

Jacksonville Jaguars @ Miami Dolphins (-3.5) – The Dolphins appear to be a strong team that can run the ball well.  Question marks remain about the Jaguars and the consistency of Trevor Lawrence although the Jaguars could be a playoff caliber team if they can be more consistent.

 

Carolina Panthers @ New Orleans Saints (-4) -  There is a possibility of an upset if Bryce Young can be better but would like to see it first before going out on a limb and picking against the Saints although we have seen Carr blow games like hits before but also come through for stretches especially against weaker teams. 

 

Minnesota Vikings @ New York Giants (+1.5)- Aaron Jones makes his debut with the Vikings.  Questions remain at the quarterback position for the Vikings so I am going to predict the Giants can do enough to slow down the Vikings offense and pull out a win although the prospect of Danny Dimes not showing up is decent.  Then again, Sam Darnold is not exactly a great option at quarterback for the Vikings either. 

 

Las Vegas Raiders (+3) @ Los Angeles Chargers– The Raiders fans should take over the Chargers’ stadium which could make this a neutral game field.  Can Jim Harbaugh give the Chargers a needed boost.  The Raiders were one of the better performing teams against the spread with Pierce, so this game is kind of a toss-up. 

 

Denver Broncos (+6) @ Seattle Seahawks – Perhaps the Broncos can be more a frisky team with Bo Nix under center although it does seem like a tough task to ask the rookie to come out and win on the road although maybe the Seahawks could be worse without head coach Pete Carroll.

Dallas Cowboys (-2.5) @ Cleveland Browns - The Cowboys typically start off the season well.  The Browns do get Watson back who was kind of lackluster despite a winning record.  Questions about the Cowboys o-line could be tested against a strong Cleveland defensive front.  The CeeDee Lamb connection could be too much for Cleveland as questions still remain about their running game. 

 

Washington Commanders @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-3.5) - The Washington Commanders season could be going in a new direction although they do need to improve their defense.  Perhaps Peters has addressed the needs of this defense in the offseason, but it needs to be proven on the field against the Bucs who made the playoffs last season with Baker Mayfield.  A win here would be similar to when Washington won its home opener against the Saints although I would like to see how the offense runs under the new offensive coordinator.

 

Los Angeles Rams (+3.5) @ Detroit Lions - I don’t think much separates these two teams and maybe the Rams will be motivated against the team that knocked them out of the playoffs. 

 

New York Jets @ San Francisco 49ers (-3.5) (LOCK) – It looks like the 49ers could be a strong team again.  I don’t think losing Chase Young will mean that much.  The Jets return with Aaron Rodgers but will need to see him prove it like Kirk Cousins that he has fully recovered from his Achilles injury although would be fun to see a good game on Monday Night.  

2023 Against the Spread - 138-126-1

2023 Locks - 29-17

2023 Straight Up - 175-106

Playoffs Against the Spread- 10-3

Playoffs Straight Up- 11-2

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