2024 Week 4 Picks

Jayden Daniels and Joe Burrow lead their teams without a TD or turnover.  This was the first time since 1940 that both teams did that.

 

Dallas Cowboys(-5.5) @ New York Giants- The Cowboys have had the Giants number the last few meetings including some massive blowouts.  The Giants do have a better receiving corps and a better running game not to mention that Dallas is dealing with a few in.  For some reason I think the owboys will rebound after a loss to the Ravens although I would be somewhat delighted if Daniel Jones can pull the Giants back to .500. 

 

New Orleans Saints (+2) @ Atlanta Falcons- Cousins has looked better and Derek Carr struggled against the Eagles.     Not sure which version of either quarter back shows up but I have been more impressed with the Saints in weeks 1-2.

 

Los Angeles Rams(+3) @ Chicago Bears -  Caleb Williams did throw for 300 plus yards but the Rams looked tough against 49ers.  Kyren Williams had 3 touchdowns last week and appears to have absorbed the volume with Kupp and Puka out. 

 

Minnesota Vikings(+2.5) @ Green Bay Packers -  The Vikings look a lot better than last season but are dealing with a few injuries but so are the Packers.  Malik Willis has been playing well but the Vikings defense has been playing well.  Matt Lafleur has been coaching the Packers. 

 

Pittsburgh Steelers (-2)(LOCK) @ Indianapolis Colts -  This seems like a game where the Steeler defense makes Anthony Richardson’s life miserable.  Justin Fields isn’t exactly lighting it up though which could keep Indianapolis in it if Michael Pittman figures it out. 

 

Denver Broncos (+7.5) @ New York Jets -  Both teams came away with nice wins.  Aaron Rodgers is looking like Aaron Rodgers again and the Broncos blew out the Bucs.   Perhaps the Broncos defense can do enough the slow down the Broncos offense but the Jets have numerous offensive weapons that could pull ahead. 

Washington Commanders (+3.5) @ Arizona Cardinals-  Kingsbury goes against his former protégé Kyler Murray.  Jayden Daniels can’t keep playing this well although teams that have played the Lions the previous week have not covered since last year.   Although Washington’s defense could allow Marvin Harrison Jr. to have a great game. 

Philadelphia Eagles @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+2) -  The Eagles go against the team that eliminated them last season.  It looks like AJ Brown is not going to play.

 

Cincinnati Bengals (-4.5) @ Carolina Panthers -   Andy Dalton goes against his former team and looks to put them at 0-4.  It still feels like the Bengals offense is finding its rhythm and they have to win.  Although they do remind me of Washington teams in the past that played down to the level of their competition.

 

Jacksonville Jaguars (+7) @ Houston Texans – Both teams got blown out.  The Texans offense could do enough to pull out the win but perhaps Jaguars will show signs of life after an embarrassing loss against a division rival.

 

New England Patriots @ San Francisco 49ers (-10) – The 49ers look to pull it together after losing to a division rival.  The Patriots were surprisingly competitive the first two weeks but Jacoby Brissett and the team seems to have regressed to the mean.  I wonder if we see Drake Maye soon.

 

Cleveland Browns @ Las Vegas Raiders (+1) - Both teams are coming off bad losses to 0-2 teams where they were expected to win by large margins.  The Raiders with Minshew may come out on top given that Watson is having trouble putting it together.

 

Kansas City Chiefs @ Los Angeles Chargers (+8.5)- It maybe Heinickie time again if Herbert can’t go.  The Chiefs offense has been playing pretty poorly although their defense keeps getting the wins.

 

Buffalo Bills (+3) @ Baltimore Ravens – Josh Allen looked great against the Jaguars.  The Ravens defense has looked shaky.  The Ravens need Lamar to come through.  The Bills defense will be  

Tennessee Titans @ Miami Dolphins (+1.5) – Perhaps the Dolphins will show signs of life at home against the Titans who also looked shaky against the Jets.

Seattle Seahawks @ Detroit Lions (-5)- Both teams are undefeated but the Seahawks are dealing with a few injuries in the backfield.   The Lions look to solidify their case as being the best team in the NFC East after knocking off the Bucs last week. 

Week 3 Against the Spread- 9-7

Week 3 Straight up - 8-8

Week 3 Locks - 0-1

2024 Against the Spread- 24-26

2024 Locks – 1-5

2024 Straight up- 30-18

2024 Week 3 Picks

Gardner Minshew has won 

his last 2 games against Baltimore

New England Patriots (+6.5) @ New York Jets - Jets finally won a game but Rodgers’ streak of throwing less than 300 yards continues since week 13 of 2022.  The Patriots have been playing well including an overtime loss to the Seahawks.  

Baltimore Ravens (-1.5) @ Dallas - Must win game for Baltimore.  The Ravens need another target other than Flowers to step up including either Andrews or Likely.  

Los Angeles Chargers (+1.5) @ Pittsburgh Steelers - Justin Fields is slightly worse than Justin Herbert.  The Steelers have a better defense, but the chargers appear to be running the ball better with JK Dobbins

Houston Texans @ Minnesota Vikings (+2.5) - Jefferson may be out in this one, but the Vikings have been playing extremely well. 

Philadelphia Eagles (+3) @ New Orleans Saints - The Saints offense has taken a turn back into the time machine with two blowout wins.  The Eagles’ defense has looked off after giving up a last-minute drive to Cousins.  

Detroit Lions @ Arizona Cardinals (+3) - Kyler Murray looked sharp against the Rams.  The Lions look to rebound from a tough loss last week against the Buccaneers.

Chicago Bears @ Indianapolis Colts (-1) - Both teams suffered shaky losses with their young quarterbacks underperforming.  The Colts could get a win here if Jonathan Taylor plays well.  Caleb Williams, the number 1 overall pick, has yet to throw a touchdown.

Miami Dolphins @ Seattle Seahawks (-4.5) - Seattle looks to get a win with the Dolphins being without Tua.  

San Francisco 49ers (-7.5) @ Los Angeles Rams - The Rams are without two of their top wide receivers.  The 49ers will look to rebound at home and perhaps the home crowd will favor the 49ers.

Denver Broncos @ Tampa Buccaneers (-7) - The Buccaneers look for their 2nd win against a rookie quarterback this season.   

Green Bay Packers (+3) @ Tennessee Titans - Malik Willis returning back against his former team.  The Titans can potentially hang in with the Packers if Pollard can get it going on the ground, but coach Matt LaFleur drew up an excellent game plan to beat the Colts.  

New York Giants (+6.5) @ Cleveland Browns - Cleveland got their act together against the Jaguars.  The Giants looked like they found some rhythm with Malik Neighbors.

Carolina Panthers @ Las Vegas Raiders (-5.5) (LOCK) - The Raiders will look to continue their case to be the Chiefs top rival as they go against the Panthers who will go with Andy Dalton.

Kansas City Chiefs (-3.5) @ Falcons - The Chiefs seem like they are content with playing close games down to the wire.  The Falcons could keep the game close if Cousins plays like he did as he showed good poise despite coming off an Achilles Injury

Jacksonville Jaguars @ Buffalo Bills (-6) - Questions remain about the Jaguars offensive line.  The Bills have extra time to prepare coming off a Thursday Night Game

Washington Commanders (+7.5) @ Cincinnati Bengals - The Commanders only gave up 18 points against the Giants which is a stark improvement to what they showed against the Bucs.  Granted the Giants wounds may have been self-inflicted with a drop by Neighbors and an injured kicker.  But despite not scoring a touchdown, Jayden Daniel and the Commanders' offense did not put in the game.   The Bengals looked much better against the Chiefs but have already let a lesser opponent like the Patriots beat them.  The thing is the Commanders defense still looks like a work in progress meaning guys like Ja’Marr Chase could have a big game.

 2024 Week 2 Against the Spread- 15-19

2024 Locks – 1-4

2024 Straight up- 22-10

 

2024 Week 2 Picks

 

Baker Mayfield has been playing well, while the Browns are still

hoping DeShaun Watson can play better who they signed for $230 million

Buffalo Bills @ Miami Dolphins (-2.5)- Rivalry game that has favored the Bills in the last four games.  Both teams managed to overcome first half deficits to get wins.  Although the Bills have a slightly different look without Steffon Diggs, they have depth of targets in Coleman and Shakir and of course Allen can utilize his legs.   The Bills’ passing defense was on point last week as they held Kyler Murray to 168 passing yards and Marvin Harrison Jr. only had 4 yards. 

New Orleans Saints @ Dallas Cowboys (-7)- Dallas beat expectations by blowing out the Browns but the Saints were also impressive in their blowout against the Panthers who made the Panthers defense look like Swiss cheese.   I will say Derek Carr could have another good game although the Cowboys defense did enough to slow down Watson.   Perhaps the Saints can present more of a challenge although there is a chance Derek Carr lays an egg on the road. 

Indianapolis Colts (-3.5) @ Green Bay – With Jordan Love out, this game should favor the Colts who looked frisky against the Texans.

San Francisco 49ers (-6) @ Minnesota Vikings – Both teams took care of business last week.  The 49ers may still be without Christian McCaffrey, and they are on the road playing in East coast time so maybe the Vikings can find a way to keep it close especially since they looked really good last week.   

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+7) @ Detroit Lions – The Buccaneers secondary is banged up, but Baker Mayfield did a good job connecting with his receivers last week.  The Buccaneers need to run the ball to keep the game close, but the Bucs can certainly keep it close as they were a playoff team last season.

Seatle Seahawks @ New England Patriots (+3.5)- The Patriots defense can keep it going at home against a Seattle team that took a while to find its beat last week.

New York Giants @ Washington Commanders (-2.5) – Washington did seem to keep Jayden Daniel mostly intact after he rushed the ball 16 times.  Washington may keep it conservative to keep their QB safe.  Daniel Jones has his most wins against this Washington team although it looks like the Giants fans have turned their back on him and might be hard for him to put together a win.  Although Washington’s defense was putrid last week so anything is possible. Washington may be the team with strong tanking prospects if they lose this game. 

Los Angeles Chargers (-6.5) @ Carolina Panthers- It would be quite stunning to see the Panthers make a turnaround against the Harbaugh lead Chargers.   The Panthers can provide more of a scoring punch although Herbert may have a great game if the Panthers defense continues to struggle.

Cleveland Browns @ Jacksonville Jaguars (-3) (LOCK) - After week 1, it looks like the Browns have a question mark at quarterback.   

 

New York Jets @ Tennessee Titans (+3.5) – The Titans kept it close against the Bears before suffering self-inflicted turnovers.   This could be an even game, but Rodgers may do enough to get his first win as a starting quarterback for the Jets.

 

Las Vegas Raiders @ Baltimore Ravens (-9.5) (LOCK) – This seems like a get right game for the Ravens.  Pierce has the Raiders playing tough and could devise a good game plan against Jackson, but Henry will probably be the difference here along with the Ravens homefield advantage.  Perhaps complacency can set in but given that the Ravens lost last week, it seems unlikely that the Ravens will take the Raiders lightly.

 

Los Angeles Rams (+1.5) @ Arizona Cardinals- Can the Cardinals slow down Cooper Kupp with a week to plan? Puka Nacua is out.  Marvin Harrison Jr. will try to get more than one reception here although the Rams dense looked decent in the second half before succumbing to the power running of David Montgomery.  The Rams will try to atone for a week 1 loss here.

 

Cincinnati Bengals @ Kansas City Chiefs (-6)-   Burrow looked sloppy against the Patriots-   He usually saves his best for the Chiefs.    For now, Kansas City has the momentum after a good win against the Ravens.

 

Pittsburgh Steelers (-3) @ Denver Broncos-   Justin Fields got his first win on the road.  Another win here for set up the Steelers nicely to compete for a division title.  The Bronco are slight underdogs because they have a rookie QB although it will be interesting to see if their defense can keep this one close. 

 

Chicago Bears (+7) @ Houston Texans - The Texans should be favorites here.  Caleb Williams still has to iron some things out and CJ Stroud still looks like the young quarterback that teams want to build around in the recent drafts.  The Bear’s defense does look good along with their running backs. 

 

Atlanta Falcons @ Philadelphia Eagles (-6.5) (LOCK)- Kirk Cousins on Monday Night against the Eagles seems like a déjà vu thing I have seen before.  Based on past history, I expect the Eagles to have a big game.  Jalen Hurts does need to play better as he threw i2 interceptions in week 1 but I expect the Eagles to play better at home as opposed to Brazil. 

2023 Against the Spread - 138-126-1

2023 Locks - 29-17

2023 Straight Up - 175-106

2024 Against the Spread- 7-9

2024 Locks – 1-1

2024 Straight up-12-4

2024 Week 1 NFL Picks

Lamar Jackson and the Ravens will look to run the ball 

this time around

 Bold-Spread

Italicized- Straight-up

Baltimore Ravens (+3) @ Kansas City Chiefs - The Ravens are aiming to get revenge for their playoff loss in the conference championship game where they were favored.  The Chiefs did turn up their defense a couple of gears to slow down the Ravens offense.  Now the Ravens acquired Derrick Henry. Kansas City does have homefield but maybe the Ravens can keep it close down the stretch and could be the more desperate team.

Green Bay Packers @ Philadelphia Eagles (-2.5)  (In Brazil)- The Packers almost made it to the conference championship game last season whereas the Eagles flamed out in epic fashion against the Bucs.   The Eagles have had an offseason to mull things over as they were able to get Saquon Barkley.  AJ Brown returns back healthy, and they traded for former Commanders’ wideout Jahan Dotson.  It will be interesting to see if the Eagles fixed their defense.

Pittsburgh Steelers (+3) @ Atlanta Falcons – The new look Falcons have Kirk Cousins behind center.  Rusell Wilson didn’t exactly inspire that much confidence with the Broncos.  Perhaps it will take a while for both teams to get it going with new offenses under center.  The Steelers defense may carry the day.

Tennessee Titans (+4.5) @ Chicago Bears - The Bears offense looks revamped with not only Caleb Williams but Rome Odunze.  The Titans lost Derrick Henry and are hoping for a comeback season from Tony Pollard. 

 

Arizona Cardinals @ Buffalo Bills (-5.5) - The Bills have a slightly better quarterback but theoretically Kyler Murray can hang with Allen given that the Cardinals may have more weapons on the outside.  The Bills appear to have a better running game with Cook and perhaps the defense of the Bills can step up at home. 

New England Patriots @ Cincinnati Bengals (-8) (LOCK) – The Patriots’ defense is supposed to be bad this season and even without Joe Mixon the Bengals offense should get it done.

 

Houston Texans (-3) @ Indianapolis Colts – Perhaps Richardson and Jonathan Taylor can keep it close with the Texans although the offense of the Texans should be much better with the addition of Steffon Diggs and Joe Mixon.

Jacksonville Jaguars @ Miami Dolphins (-3.5) – The Dolphins appear to be a strong team that can run the ball well.  Question marks remain about the Jaguars and the consistency of Trevor Lawrence although the Jaguars could be a playoff caliber team if they can be more consistent.

 

Carolina Panthers @ New Orleans Saints (-4) -  There is a possibility of an upset if Bryce Young can be better but would like to see it first before going out on a limb and picking against the Saints although we have seen Carr blow games like hits before but also come through for stretches especially against weaker teams. 

 

Minnesota Vikings @ New York Giants (+1.5)- Aaron Jones makes his debut with the Vikings.  Questions remain at the quarterback position for the Vikings so I am going to predict the Giants can do enough to slow down the Vikings offense and pull out a win although the prospect of Danny Dimes not showing up is decent.  Then again, Sam Darnold is not exactly a great option at quarterback for the Vikings either. 

 

Las Vegas Raiders (+3) @ Los Angeles Chargers– The Raiders fans should take over the Chargers’ stadium which could make this a neutral game field.  Can Jim Harbaugh give the Chargers a needed boost.  The Raiders were one of the better performing teams against the spread with Pierce, so this game is kind of a toss-up. 

 

Denver Broncos (+6) @ Seattle Seahawks – Perhaps the Broncos can be more a frisky team with Bo Nix under center although it does seem like a tough task to ask the rookie to come out and win on the road although maybe the Seahawks could be worse without head coach Pete Carroll.

Dallas Cowboys (-2.5) @ Cleveland Browns - The Cowboys typically start off the season well.  The Browns do get Watson back who was kind of lackluster despite a winning record.  Questions about the Cowboys o-line could be tested against a strong Cleveland defensive front.  The CeeDee Lamb connection could be too much for Cleveland as questions still remain about their running game. 

 

Washington Commanders @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-3.5) - The Washington Commanders season could be going in a new direction although they do need to improve their defense.  Perhaps Peters has addressed the needs of this defense in the offseason, but it needs to be proven on the field against the Bucs who made the playoffs last season with Baker Mayfield.  A win here would be similar to when Washington won its home opener against the Saints although I would like to see how the offense runs under the new offensive coordinator.

 

Los Angeles Rams (+3.5) @ Detroit Lions - I don’t think much separates these two teams and maybe the Rams will be motivated against the team that knocked them out of the playoffs. 

 

New York Jets @ San Francisco 49ers (-3.5) (LOCK) – It looks like the 49ers could be a strong team again.  I don’t think losing Chase Young will mean that much.  The Jets return with Aaron Rodgers but will need to see him prove it like Kirk Cousins that he has fully recovered from his Achilles injury although would be fun to see a good game on Monday Night.  

2023 Against the Spread - 138-126-1

2023 Locks - 29-17

2023 Straight Up - 175-106

Playoffs Against the Spread- 10-3

Playoffs Straight Up- 11-2