2023 Week 17 Picks

The NFL and the Broncos could face legal action arbitration from 

the NFL Players association for benching Russell Wilson

according to the Washington Post

New England Patriots (+12) @ Buffalo Bills - The Bills did not take care of business completely against the Chargers.  The Patriots may have mailed in most of the season but they are coming off a win against the Broncos.

Atlanta Falcons @ Chicago Bears (-3) -  Perhaps the cold weather will favor the Bears even though the Falcons are coming off an impressive win against the Colts.

Las Vegas Raiders (+3) @ Indianapolis Colts - The Raiders are playing well and perhaps can exploit Minshew and the Colts who only put up 10 points last week.

Los Angeles Rams (-6)(LOCK) @ New York Giants - The Rams have taken care of business down the stretch as they are looking to keep their playoff hopes alive.  A loss to the giants here would be deflating.

Arizona Cardinals (+10.5) @ Philadelphia Eagles- The Eagles may miss their defensive coordinator who is now the head coach of the Cardinals.  

New Orleans Saints @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-3)- A division game where Tampa may win although it should be an evenly matched game plus Derrick Carr may struggle.

San Francisco 49ers (-13.5) @ Washington Commanders- Chase Young makes his return back to Washington.  Jacoby Brissett is a late scratch meaning the 49ers are poised to have a bounce back game.  

Carolina Panthers (+7) @ Jacksonville Jaguars - The Panthers kept it close against the Packers and Trevor Lawrence is banged up.

Miami Dolphins @ Baltimore Ravens (-3.5) - The Ravens struggle a lot against Tyreek Hill although their defense is playing well.  

Tennessee Titans (+3.5) @ Houston Texans - These two teams just played perhaps the Titans can even the series.

Los Angeles Chargers @ Denver Broncos (-5.5)- The Chargers will be without Keenan Allen and Joshua Palmer while Russell Wilson is benched.

Cincinnati Bengals (+7) @ Kansas City Chiefs- Browning did struggle last week although he had played well in his previous 4 outings.  The Chiefs will look to back on track or could be in jeopardy of missing the playoffs.  Jamarr Chase returns.

Green Bay Packers @ Minnesota Vikings (-2) - The Packers barely held on against the Panthers.  Chandler looked explosive in the backfield last week.

Week 16 Against the Spread - 5-9

Week 16 Straight up - 8-8

Week 16 Locks - 0-3

Week 17 Against the Spread- 2-0

Week 17 Straight Up - 2-0

Week 17 Locks - 1-0

2023 Against the Spread - 108-114-1

2023 Locks - 23-16

2023 Straight Up - 129-94

2023 Week 16 NFL Picks

 

Brock Purdy thinks that Christian McCaffrey should be MVP

Washington Commanders(+3) @ New York Jets - Neither team inspires any confidence.  Sam Howell was benched in his last game but makes his return against the Jets who have benched Zach Wilson yet again.  Perhaps the Commanders can get some momentum against the Jets if they go back to Brissett but their offensive line has struggled all season.  The Commanders defense has been unable to generate a pass rush.  The winner of this game also gets a worse draft pick meaning there isn't much to play for other than pride.

Detroit Lions @ Minnesota Vikings (+3)-  The Vikings looked much better changing quarterbacks while the Lions have managed to take care of bad teams.

Cleveland Browns (-2.5) @ Houston Texans - Both teams are still succeeding despite their high profile quarterbacks going down.   

Green Bay Packers (-4.5)(LOCK) @ Carolina Panthers- The Panthers season has hit the tank.  Jordan Love has shown more than the Bryce Young this season.

Seattle Seahawks @ Tennessee Titans (+2.5)-  The Titans will likely have the upper hand just since Seattle is traveling from the West Coast.  Although Kenneth Walker does suit up against a Titans team that has struggled holding down the run.

Arizona (+4.5) @ Chicago Bears - The Bears should take care of business at home but consistency has been a problem for them plus Kyler Murray tends to keep games close against lesser teams.  

Indianapolis Colts (-1) (LOCK) @ Atlanta Falcons- The Falcons go back again to Taylor Heinickie but the Colts may get Jonathan Taylor back meaning they are poised to keep their playoff hopes alive.  

Jacksonville Jaguars (-1)(LOCK) @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers - The Bucs have at times been resilient with Mike Evans helping the passing game but it looks like the Jaguars will have an edge as Trevor Lawrence returns. 

Dallas Cowboys (+1.5) @ Miami Dolphins - The Cowboys looked terrible in their loss against the Bills.  The Dolphins looked sharp against a poor Jets team.  It is hard to determine which version of each team shows up.  For now, the Cowboys could be due for a bounce back after a poor showing otherwise people will begin to criticize Dak's performance in December.

New England Patriots @ Denver Broncos (-6.5)- The Patriots typically struggled in Denver even with Brady and the Broncos have been playing well recently.

Las Vegas Raiders (+10) @ Kansas City Chiefs - The Chiefs typically beat up on the Raiders although the Raiders have been a bit feisty since Antonio Pierce has taken over as head coach.

New York Giants (+12) @ Philadelphia Eagles-  The Devito Hype train hit a bit of snag against the Saints last week.  The Eagles look to get back on track against a Giants team they have kind of owned.  Perhaps the Eagles 'can hid their weakness of their weak secondary against the Giants.  Although Barkley is due for a big play or two and Waller returns, it could get ugly for the Giants if the Eagles can regain some of their form as we inch closer to the playoffs   

Baltimore Ravens @ San Francisco 49ers (-5.5)- In what is the game of the week, the 49ers go against a Ravens team that struggled a bit against their division rival Rams in a shootout.  For now the 49ers may try to send a message to a another potential Super Bowl contender.  This will be a big test for Lamar Jackson.  The 49ers freight train could continue although if the Ravens keep it close it also would not be that surprising.

Week 15 Against the Spread- 4-12

Week 15 Locks - 0-1

Week 15 Straight up - 9-7

Week 16 Against the Spread - 1-2

Week 15 Straight up - 2-1

2023 Against the Spread - 102-105-1

2023 Locks - 22-13

2023 Straight Up - 121-87

2023 Week 15 NFL Picks

Andy Reid was fined $100,000 for criticizing the officials while 

Mahomes was fined for $50,00 for unsportmanlike conduct during the 

4th quarter of Sunday's game at Buffalo, according to Adam Schefter

New York Giants (+6) @ New Orleans Saints - Tommy Devito has been playing well.  The Saints might be able to slow him down although Devito's magical run could continue.  The Saints offense has been inconsistent at times so perhaps the Giants can keep it closer.

Chicago Bears @ Cleveland Browns (-3.5)- The Browns defense looked very good last week - Flaco threw for over 300 yards.  THe Bears looked very good against the Lions.  Although Fiels hasn't played particularily well at home.  Plus the Browns are still playing for a playoff spot.  

Atlanta Falcons @ Carolina Panthers (+3) - There is a chance for the Falcons to breakout against a division rival at home although the Panthers have been held for under 20 points in their last 20 games meaning the Falcons could take care of business on the road.  

Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Green Bay Packers (-3.5) - Both teams are still alive for the playoffs despite slow starts.  The Packers could rebound at home given Tampa's defense is not as strong as the Giatns.  

Kansas City Chiefs @ New England Patriots (+9.5) - The Patriots are last in points per game although they did put up 21 points with Bailey Zappe under center against the Steelers.  Perhaps the Patriots can contain the Chiefs offense who haven't allowed more than 215 yards in their last 4 games. 

New York Jets (+6) @ Miami Dolphins - Zach Wilson had a great game last week but Dolphins have had the Jets number this season.  The Jets put up 30 points last week.  Tyreek Hill is out although the big reason why the Jets lost last time around was that they couldn't slow down the Dolphins running game.

Houston Texans @ Tennessee Titans (-2.5) - It looks like CJ Stroud is out with a lot offensive weapons injured so the Titans could end up continuing the momentum they have from beating the Dolphins last week.  '

San Francisco 49ers @ Arizona Cardinals (+13) - The 49ers have won 5 games in a row go against one of the worst rushing teams in the NFL.  Kyler Murray is coming off a win in his last outing and the Cardinals are coming off a bye but it still looks like 49ers will continue to win.  

Washington Commanders @ Los Angeles Rams (6.5) (LOCK)- The Rams in a loss put up the most points against the Ravens this season.  The Rams have several offensive weapons while the Commanders defense has taken a step back since trading away Sweat and Young.   The Commanders' offense has the worst passing yards, worst passing ratings, worst in points per game, and worst per yards per game.  

Dallas Cowboys (+2.5) @ Buffalo Bills - The Bills are trying to keep their playoff hopes alive while the Cowboys are chasing the Eagles for the division title.  Prescott has only 2 interceptions for the seasons and hasn't thrown a pick in his last 4 games.  

Baltimore Ravens (-3.5) @ Jacksonville Jaguars - The Ravens should be in line for another win although their defense did look shaky at times against the Rams.  Still, the Jaguars offense is not as dynamic as the Ravens especially if Lawrence is not 100%.  

Philadelphia Eagles (-3) @ Seattle Seahawks- Both bird teams are on losing streaks primarily due to their struggling defenses.  Although Geno Smith is questionable for the game which means Drew Locke could play.  The Seahawks have the receivers that could challenge the Eagles secondary.  Still, it seems unlikely that the Eagles will be held for under 20 points for the 3rd consecutive week.  

Week 14 Against the Spread 7-7-1

Week 14 Locks - 0-2

Week 14 Straight up - 3-12

Week 15 Against the Spread - 2-2

Week 15 Straight up - 3-1

2023 Against the Spread - 99-93-1

2023 Locks - 22-12

2023 Straight Up - 127-80

2023 Week 14 NFL Picks

The Jets are aiming to trade Zach Wilson in the offseason

Houston Texans (-5.5)(LOCK) @ New York Jets - The quarterback position needs to be resolved - otherwise the Jets will continue to lose even though their defense is capable of keeping their team in the game.  The Texans look like a really good team although they did lose a few players to injuries over the last few weeks.  

Los Angeles Rams(+7) @ Baltimore Ravens  - The Ravens are laying well but the Rams are too although they are traveling so it could be a tougher game but maybe Sean McVay can get them ready for this game.  

Carolina Panthers (+5.5) @ New Orleans Saints - Both teams are struggling but the Panthers look significantly worse.  

Indianapolis Colts @ Cincinnati Bengals (+1.5) - The Bengals did play well in their last game but it is still a battle of backup quarterbacks at the end of the day.  The Bengals do have better skill position players than the Colts especially with Jonathan Taylor out.  

Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Atlanta Falcons (-2.5) - The Falcons have been playing better although they have had a slightly favorable schedule.  The Bucs could keep it close with Mike Evans although they did lose earlier in the season at home to the Falcons.  

Jacksonville Jaguars (+3)(LOCK) @ Cleveland Browns - The Jaguars will look to rebound after a tough loss to the Bengals although I think the Browns may not have the firepower to keep up even if Flacco is a short term upgrade.  

Detroit Lions (-4.5) @ Chicago Bears - The Bears did manage to keep it close in their last game against Detroit although Justin Fields is very inconsistent.  

Seattle Seahawks @ San Francisco 49ers (-10.5) - Seattle did play the Cowboys tough.  Maybe the Seahawks can figure out how to keep it closer against the 49ers with more time to prepare in a division game although a 49ers tromp would also not be surprising.  

Minnesota Vikings @ Las Vegas Raiders (+3) - Josh Dobbs didn't look as sharp in his last game although the Vikings did have a bye to perhaps get him right.   The Raiders are still a pesky team  but Minnesota's passing game could win them this one.   

Denver Broncos (+3) @ Los Angeles Chargers - The Chargers are already conceding that Ekeler won't be splitting carries.  They look a bit lost.  The Broncos are playing better although Wilson hasn't look completely reliable especially in the last game against the Texans.

Buffalo Bills @ Kansas City Chiefs (-2.5)- Both teams are heading in the wrong direction.  The Chiefs offense appears to have taken a hit.  While the Bills defense has let the down in 3 of their past for games which were losses.  I expect the Chiefs as the team more likely to resolve their issues especially since the game is at home.  

Philadelphia Eagles (+3) @ Dallas Cowboys - Dallas has been playing incredibly well although there are chinks in the armor with their last relatively close game against Seattle.  This game could be close than the last one which was decided by a few Dak Prescott plays but the Eagles offense will probably rebound after a poor showing against the 49ers.

Green Bay Packers @ New York Giants (+6.5) - The Packers appears to have found a switch with their recent wins against the Chiefs and were even competitive against the Steelers although it was a loss.  The Packers defense seems legit it will be interesting to see if Jordan Love can remain consistent on the road against a good Giant's defense. 

Tennessee Titans (+13.5) @ Miami Dolphins - The Dolphins are firing on all cylinders.  They can only really lose this game if they have a mental let down because on paper the Titans can't keep up offensively especially through the passing game although Derrick Henry can always pick up the load running the ball.  Miami still looks like one of the best teams in the AFC.  

Week 13 Against the Spread - 6-6-1

Week 13 Straight up – 6-7

Week 13 Locks - 1-1

Week 14 Against the Spread 1-0

Week 14 Straight up - 0-1

2023 Against the Spread - 91-84

2023 Locks - 22-10

2023 Straight Up - 121-68

2023 Week 13 NFL Picks

Joe Flacco's career continues.

Indianapolis Colts (-1) @ Tennessee Titans  -  The Colts he taken a bit of a hit with he injury to Jonathan Taylor although perhaps Zach Moss can fill in the short term.   Will Levis looks like a competent quarterback although he struggled in the second half against the Panthers.  

Detroit Lions @ New Orleans Saints (+4) -  Both these teams have inconsistent quarterback play.   Goff has been more consistent this season than Carr but he was truly awful against the Packers due to lack of protection.  Perhaps the Saints homefield can keep the Saints in this game but they also have a turnover problem that could prevent them from winning the game. 

Los Angeles Chargers @ New England Patriots (+6.5)-  Both teams are coming off close losses although of different caliber of opponents.  While the Chargers have to deal with the jet lag, the Patriots offense looks anemic although the Chargers offense didn't look much better against the Ravens.  

Atlanta Falcons @ New York Jets (+2.5)-  Bijan Robinson looked excellent last week against the Saints.  The Jets might keep it close if they can slow down Desmond Ridder although he has played well against the Saints last week.

Arizona Cardinals @ Pittsburgh Steelers (-5.5) -  Murry looed sloppy against the Rams last week.  His defense didn't help either as Kyren Williams went off. I expect Harris and Warren to have good games even if Kyler Murray has a good game, it may be too much for the Cardinals.

Miami Dolphins (-9.5)(LOCK) @ Washington Commanders- The Commanders have fired their defensive coordinator Jack Del Rio but with a lack of a pass rush, it could be a long day against the Dolphins.

Denver Broncos (+3.5)(LOCK) @ Houston Texans - These two teams are playing extremely well.  Stroud still might make a rookie mistake but he does come up with big plays.  Still, the Broncos looked like a well oiled machine with their defense playing well, a good running game, and Russell Wilson looks like he's back to playing well.

Carolina Panthers (+5.5) @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers - This game could be closer than anticipated since its a division game, but it looks like Tampa is operating better at the quarterback position.  Although maybe the Panthers will get a boost from firing their head coach.

Cleveland Browns @ Los Angeles Rams (-3.5)  - The Rams are starting to look like a complete team again since it is getting back a lot of injured pieces like Matthew Stafford and Kyren Williams.  The Browns passing game looks like a work in progress with DeShaun Waton out although Joe Flacco could be an upgrade.

San Francisco 49ers @ Philadelphia Eagles (+2)-  The Eagles have had a couple of nail biters against quality opponents including the Chiefs and Bills.   The 49ers appear to be a more complete team than both of the. Although Purdy is significantly worse than Allen or Mahomes, perhaps the weapons of the 49ers of McCaffrey, Deebo Samuel, and George Kittle can make this another compelling game.  

Kansas City Chiefs @ Green Bay Packers (+6.5)-  The Packers got it going against the Lions last week although the Chiefs defense may be underrated and should probably do enough to contain the Packers.  But it will be interesting to see if guys like Watson and Dillon can have back to back good weeks.  

Jacksonville Jaguars @ Cincinnati Bengals (+8.5) - The Bengals offense really struggled against the Steelers but still it was a close game.  The Jaguars could have a better showing although they sometimes play down to the level of their competition.  

Week 12 Against the Spread - 7-7-1

Week 12 Straight up – 9-6

Week 12 Locks - 3-0

Week 13 Against the Spread 0-1

Week 13 Straight up - 1-0 

2023 Against the Spread - 84-79

2023 Locks - 21-9

2023 Straight Up - 116-60

2023 Week 12 Picks

 According to Adam Schefter, the NFL is hoping to avoid this becoming the fifth straight week

that a starting quarterback has suffered a season-ending injury. Kirk Cousins ruptured his Achilles in Week 8, Daniel Jones tore his ACL in Week 9, Deshaun Watson fractured his shoulder in Week 10, and Joe Burrow tore a wrist ligament in Week 11.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Indianapolis Colts (-2.5) - The Bucs looked sloppy against the 49ers but so far the whole league does.   They could contend with the Colts although Indianapolis is coming off a bye.

New England Patriots @ New York Giants (+3)-  Tommy Devito looked solid against the Commanders.   The Patriots appear to have thrown in the towel.  Draft positioning could be an important in this one.  

Pittsburgh Steelers (-1)(LOCK) @ Cincinnati Bengals-  The Steelers are likely to take advantage of Browning's lack of experience at the quarterback position.

Jacksonville Jaguars @ Houston Texan (+1.5) - An important divisional game for both teams  The Jaguars are coming off an impressive victory although the Texans look like they are making a challenge for a postseason spot.  .  

New Orleans Saints (-1) @ Atlanta Falcons-  The Falcons are going back to Desmond Ridder.  Maybe Ridder got better spending some time on the bench although the evidence remains to be seen if he can beat a good New Orleans defense.  

Los Angeles Rams @ Arizona Cardinals (+1)-  The Rams appeared to regain some of its spar in last weeks win while the Cardinals offense has been a roll since Kyler Murray came back.   

Cleveland Browns @ Denver Broncos (-2.5)(LOCK) -  The Broncos look like a much better team over the last few weeks, of what is to be expected of a Sean Payton coach lead tea.  Russell Wilson even looks like a competent starting quarterback.

Buffalo Bills @ Philadelphia Eagles (-3) -  The Eagles' defense did it is part in slowing down the Chiefs offense.   The Bills do have a better receivers to throw at the Eagles while Jalen Hurts will try to do get it going. 

Baltimore Ravens (-3.5) @ Los Angeles Chargers- The Ravens offense should get it going against the Chargers defense who haven't been able to slow it down this season.  

Kansas City Chiefs @ Las Vegas Raiders (+9)- The Chiefs are looking to overcome a loss to the Eagles, while the Raiders defense has been pretty frisky since Antonio Pierce has taken over.  

Week 12 Against the Spread - 2-2

Week 12 Straight up – 3-1

Week 12 Locks - 1-0

Week 11 Against the Spread 7-7

Week 11 Straight up - 7-7

Week 11 Locks - 2-0 

2023 Against the Spread - 79-73

2023 Locks - 19-9

2023 Straight Up - 109-55

2023 Week 11 NFL Picks

Aaron Rodgers eyes a Week 16 return

Dallas Cowboys (-10.5)(LOCK) @ Carolina Panthers - Dallas laid the smack down on the Giants in week 1.  The Panthers should suffer a similar fate provided the Cowboys don't let their foot off the gas which is more than capable of happening given that the Cowboys let the Cardinals 

Pittsburgh Steelers(+4) @ Cleveland Browns - DeShaun Watson is out so they go to the rookie. The Steelers got it going by running the ball against the Packers although the Browns defense is a diffrent test.  Pickett will need to play better.

Chicago Bears (+10) @ Detroit Lions  - The Lions offense is firing on all cylinders.  Granted they weren't able to slow down the chargers but the Bears appear to be not an oiled machine even if Justin Fields is coming back off an injury.

Los Angeles Chargers @ Green Bay Packers (+3)  - The Chargers' offense looked great against the Lions  The Packers may be able to run the ball well against the Chargers though and being an east coast game could make the game go either way.

Arizona Cardinals (+4) @ Houston Texans - Kyler Murray still looks rusty at times while the Texans keep finding ways to win.

Tennessee Titans (+6.5) @ Jacksonville Jaguars -  The Jaguars struggled immensely against the 49ers but the Titans defense is not in the same league.  

Las Vegas Raiders @ Miami Dolphins (-12) -The Dolphins are slated to dominate the Raiders whose QB play held up against the Jets but likely will not be able to keep up with the Dolphins coming off a bye.  Although the turnaround lead by Antonio Pierce has been remarkable.  

New York Giants(+10)(LOCK) @ Washington Commanders - The Tommy Devito experience has been awful for Giants fans although they play a team that they have played well in the past.   Sam Howell is leading the league in passing yards although it would be nice for him to dominate in the first half rather than relying on 2nd half comebacks.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ San Francisco 49ers (-11) - Tampa Bay looks better than anticipated although the 49ers appear to be firing on ally cylinders with a new revamped pass rush with the addition of Chase Young.   

New York Jets (+7)  @ Buffalo Bills  - The Jets defense keeps putting them in games.  Can Zach Wilson do well enough to complete a series sweep against the Bills, maybe not although  the receiving corps of Garrett Wilson and Xavior Gipson looks promising.  

Seattle Seahawks (+1) @ Los Angeles Rams - Seattle put it together against the Commanders last week despite a poor showing from its offense in the first half.  The Rams look to be a bit aof a mess although they do get Stafford back.

Minnesota Vikings (+2) @ Denver Broncos - Both teams are playing much better than the lst few weeks.  The Vikings success looks great although the Broncos have made the Chiefs and Bills look ordinary in consecutive weeks and are playing at home.  

Philadelphia Eagles (+2.5) @ Kansas City Chiefs - The Chiefs offense has not looked as tight in recent weeks although there is the Andy Reid coaching factor to consider.  Nonetheless, throwing to AJ Brown appears to a cheat code while Kelce has et to create the same kind of gravity.

Week 11 Against the Spread 0-1

Week 11 Straight up - 0-1

Week 10 Against the Spread - 10-4

Week 10 Straight up – 9-5

Week 10 Locks - 3-0

2023 Against the Spread - 70-65

2023 Locks - 16-9

2023 Straight Up - 99-48

2023 Week 10 NFL Picks

According to Alec Lewis, Josh Dobbs said that Vikings HC Kevin O’Connell was essentially translating calls and mapping out plays mid-huddle, as the play clock was ticking down. KOC called Dobbs’ ability to handle it all one of the most impressive things he’d seen in his career.

Indianapolis Colts (-1.5) (LOCK) @ New England Patriots - In last week's loss against the Commanders, Rhamondre Stevenson had 87 yards but only on 9 carries.  Maybe they will try to get him more involved.  Minshew on the road makes me nervous although the Colts should still be favored to win in this game given that it is in a neutral field.

Cleveland Browns (+6) @ Baltimore Ravens  - Both of these had very impressive performances last week where they obliterated their opponents.  DeShaun Watson looked good, granted it was against lesser competition.  The Ravens should be favored to win a division game at home although an upset isn't out of the question given the letdowns the Ravens have had in the past. 

Green Bay Packers @ Pittsburgh Steelers (-3.5) (LOCK)-  The Steelers look like a more impressive team when they can run the ball like they did against the Titans.   Jordan Love and the Packers had a nice bounce back game against the Rams although the Rams looked like probably the one of the worse teams out there last week.

San Francisco 49ers (-3) @ Jacksonville Jaguars - The 49ers have traditionally looked good off of byes and they could be getting a few bodies bac.  The Jaguars have been playing well though and this could be the game of the week.  

New Orleans Saints (-2.5) @ Minnesota Vikings-  Josh Dobbs really pulled a rabbit out of his hat with the performance he had coming just off the Cardinals.  That being said New Orleans defense should be a tougher test.   While Derek Carr hasn't been reliable the changeup of Taysom Hill has provided a nice needed boost.  Michael Thomas was arrested so that could be a bit problematic but I still think the Saints should be favored here. 

Houston Texans (+6.5) @ Cincinnati Bengals - The Texans are coming off a nice win against the Buccaneers where CJ Stroud looed excellent at times although he still made a few rookie mistakes.  The Bengals look like a well oiled machine though.  Joe Burrow appears to have shaken off a lot of the rust.  The Bengals defense made Josh Allen look ordinary times, now it is just a question of whether the Bengals can avoid a let down.

Tennessee Titans @ Tampa Bay Bucaneers (-1) -  Both team looked impressive at times in their losses so this could be another good game although the loser can't like their chances of making the playoffs.  The Bucs homefield may carry the day here although Will Levis will try to repeat what CJ Stroud did the previous week.

Detroit Lions  @ Los Angeles Chargers (+2.5) -  The Chargers offense looked a bit out of sorts against the Jets defense but their defense was able to do slow down the Jets.  Detroit is coming off a bye where they had a lotto think about after their massive loss.

Atlanta Falcons @ Arizona Cardinals (+1.5) - Kyler Murray makes his return.  It will be interesting to see if Murrray can do what Josh Dobbs did the previous week.  For some reason I like the Cardinals to bounce back even though the Falcons appear to be a significantly better team with Heinickie under center.  The only thing that makes me nervous is if Kyler Murray has some rust similar to what Joe Burrow had earlier in the season coming off an injury.

New York Giants (+17.5) @ Dallas Cowboys -  This seems like a get right game for the Cowboys who suffered a devastating loss to the Eagles.  Granted their game was decided by a few plays by inches, the Giants in the meantime look like a G-league team at times with Tommy Devito under center, even though their defense is playing well and Barkley is still a great running back.  Not sure if the Cowboys will cover here but a blowout is certainly in play.

Washington Commanders (+6.5)  @ Seattle Seahawks  - Seattle will loo to bounce back at home against a Washington secondary that has struggle throughout the season.  Perhaps the Commanders will try to prove hey are better without Chase Young although the crowd noise in Seattle could have an effect on Washington's offense.  

New York Jets @ Las Vegas Raiders (+1)(LOCK) -  The Raiders look competent offensively with Aidan O'Çonnell under center even if Davante Adams has taken a bit of a back seat in the new look Raiders offense.  The Jets defense has been playing out of its minds but Zach Wilson continues to struggle,  Until the Jets make a QB change, I will probably continue to fade the Jets, even if they have beaten a few good teams.  

Denver Broncos @ Buffalo Bills (-7.5) - The Broncos are coming off a nice win against the Chiefs in their previous outing and Sean Payton has had good records coming off byes.  This feels like a Bills get right game though where Allen can show that he's consistent.  On paper, the Bengals defense is better than Broncos although Denver did show it had some toughness when it shut down Chiefs although many division rivalry games can be weighted less.

Week 10 Against the Spread - 1-0

Week 10 Straight up – 0-1

Week 9 Against the Spread - 9-5

Week 9 Straight Up - 10-4

Week 9 Locks - 2-0

2023 Against the Spread - 61-60

2023 Locks - 13-9

2023 Straight Up - 90-43

2023 Week 9 Picks

             The Firings of Josh McDaniels and their GM to cost nearly $85 million  

Miami Dolphins (+2) @ Kansas City Chiefs (Frankfurt, Germany)  -  Mahomes had the flu in his last game.  The Chiefs defense looked solid against the Broncos but were unable to convert.  This is a Tyreek Hill game though so this game could go either way.  The Chiefs have yet to beat a team with a winning record.  

Minnesota Vikings (+5.5) @ Atlanta Falcons  - The Falcons will face a Vikings team in disaray with critical injuries to Cousins and Justin Jefferson.  Taylor Heinicke could do enough to propel the Falcons to a win although the Falcons will be without Drake London.  

Seattle Seahawks (+5.5) @ Baltimore Ravens - Seattle has been playing well.  Lamar can't get away with critical turnovers.  Perhaps traveling from west to east can make the Ravens the favorites although the Seahawks have the better running game with Kenneth Walker.

Arizona Cardinals @ Cleveland Browns (-8) - Kyler Murray is not going to make his debut although  It looks like DeMarcado is out.  The Browns have been firing on all cylinders last week against the Colts.  

Los Angeles Rams (+3) @ Green Bay Packers - It looks like Matt Stafford is out so Brett Rypien will play.   Jordan Love hasn't been much better.  

Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Houston Texans (-2.5) - Tampa did well enough to play the Bills close in their last matchup.  Perhaps CJ Stroud will regress to a rookie quarterback although the Texans seem to do well enough especially with Pierce leading the running attack.

Washington Commanders @ New England Patriots (-3.5) - The Commanders traded away their two defensive ends for draft picks.  Perhaps Washington can get a boost from having no one believ3 in them although the Patriots have been playing better, at least if you average out the last 4 weeks.  

Chicago Bears (+7.5) @ New Orleans Saints - The Saints got it together last week against the Colts and look to repeat the results against a Bears team that is also inconsistent.  

Indianapolis Colts (-3) @ Carolina Panthers - The Pantehrs defense isn't bad.  Adam Thielen is still producing although Miles Sanders is missing in action.  The runing attack for the Colts with Jonathan Taylor and Zach Moss is pretty solid but Minshew has just been pretty inconsistent.

New York Giants @ Las Vegas Raiders (-2.5)(LOCK) - The Giants inability to throw the ball becomes critical with Tyrod Taylor now out as they insert Tommy DeVito.  The Giants defense is also pretty good.  Look for the Riders to get a win though with the firing of their head coach.

Dallas Cowboys @ Philadelphia Eagles (-3) - In perhaps the game of the week, the Cowboys come to town against an Eagles team that barely did enough to take care of Washington.  Still, the Eagles usually get up to play Dallas although perhaps Dallas's defense will give Hurts problems.  Still, it doesn't appear that anyone in the league can cover AJ Brown.  

Buffalo Bills @ Cincinnati Bengals (-2.5) - The Bengals appear to have gotten it together after a nice showing against the 49ers.  The Bills have had extra time to prepare for the team that dashed their postseason hopes.

Los Angeles Chargers (-3)(LOCK) @ New York Jets - Breece Hall got it going in the passing game last week against the Giants.  Zach Wilson showed mobility in the comeback drive against the Giants.  Still, it looks like the Chargers will rebound from a bad showing against the Cowboys.

Week 9 Against the Spread - 0-1

Week 9 Straight up – 0-1

Week 8 Against the Spread - 8-7

Week 8 Straight Up - 11-4

Week 8 Locks - 2-0

2023 Against the Spread - 51-56

2023 Locks - 11-9

2023 Straight Up - 80-39

2023 Week 8 NFL Picks

According to NFL.com, Derrick Henry or Montez Sweat are among the 

big names garnering interest before Tuesday's NFL Trade Deadline

Washington Commanders @ Philadelphia Eagles (-6.5) -  The Eagles keeep on converting the 4th down and short plays and AJ Brown continues to prove that he's an elite receiver when there is double coverage.  

New York Jets @ New York Giants(+2.5) - This should be a good batlte of defense where both theams boast good running backs.   

Jacksonville Jaguars @ Pittsburgh Steelers (+2.5)  - Pittsburgh keeps games close but the Jaguars are also on a roll so I expect this game to come down to the wire.

Los Angeles Rams (+6.5) @ Dallas Cowboys  - Dallas's secondary could be tested although they did play well last week.  The Rams are looking to perhaps make up for a closely contested game against the Steelers.   

Minnesota Vikings (-1)(LOCK) @ Green Bay Packers -  The Vikings didn't seem to miss Jefferson as Addison filled in the void.  Jordan Love got another win although let's see if he can build consecutive back to back good games in a row. 

Atlanta Falcons (+2.5) @ Tennessee Titans  - Derrick Henry is on the trade block.  The Falcons may have more talent although Arthur Smith may not be as good of a coach Mike Vrabel.  

New England Patriots (+9.5) @ Miami Dolphins  - The Dolphins looked sloppy against the Eagles while the Patriots managed to beat the Bills.  Still, the Patriots looked outmatched the last time these two teams faced off in New England, and the margin would have been bigger if Jason Sanders had knocked down a couple field goals. 

New Orleans Saints @ Indianapolis Colts (-1) - Derrick Carr may be due for a good game after being a check down king in hiis last game against the Jaguars.  The Colts had a good effort against the Browns- it's hard to make out if they keep up their scoring.

Houston Texans (-3)  @ Carolina Panthers -  CJ Stroud looks to keep it going.  Miles Sanders has been a disappointment this season.  

Cleveland Browns (+3) @ Seattle Seahawks - Cleveland barely beat the Colts although they were dealing with a Deshaun Watson injury.

Cincinnati Bengals (+5.5) @ San Francisco 49ers -   The Bengals have looked somehwat more competent and perhaps Burrow is healthy enough to keep the game close.  Still, Chrisitan McCaffrey has been very dynamic.

Kansas Chiefs @ Denver Broncos (+8) -  The Chiefs typically take care of business against the Broncos and while the Broncos won, it is hard to see them pulling off an upset.

Baltimore Ravens @ Arizona Cardinals (+8.5) - The Ravens got it together against the Lions.  Now they can't take a soft opponent for granted against a Cardinals team that has outperformed expectations versus the spread.

Chicago Bears (+8.5) @ Los Angeles Chargers - This feels like a game where the Chargers get to play a lesser opponent and finally walk out with a win although there will be plenty of Bears fans in the stadium.  

Las Vegas Raiders @ Detroit Lions (-8.5)(LOCK) - The Lions looked terrible against the Ravens although I think they will respond accordingly against a Raiders team that looks off without Jimmy G.  

Week 8 Against the Spread - 0-1

Week 8 Straight up – 1-0

2023 Against the Spread - 43-49

2023 Locks - 9-9

2023 Straight Up - 70-35

2023 Week 7 NFL Picks

 McDaniels demonstrate his ability to call Time Outs

TIMEOUT!

The Mike’d Up drops tomorrow 👀 pic.twitter.com/dwwuSHJ1rA

— Miami Dolphins (@MiamiDolphins) October 16, 2023

Atlanta Falcons @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-2.5)  – Neither team is playing that well.  Ridder could have gotten the Falcons a win must was too turnover prone.  The Bucs have not been shartp either although they will get Mike Evans back into the lineup who is dealing with a hamstring injury.  Chris Godwin has averaged 6 receptions and 96 yards in his career against the Falcons.  

Las Vegas Raiders @ Chicago Bears (+3) – Neither team inspires much confidence.   The Raiders at least have a healthy running back.  While Justin Fields looked good against the Commanders, he was not able to keep it up against the Vikings.

Cleveland Browns (-2.5) (LOCK) @ Indianapolis Colts – The Browns defense has been stellar and goes against a Colts team that will be without its start QB Anthony Richardson for the remainder of the season while DeShaun Watson returns for the first time in a month.  

Washington Commanders (-1.5) @ New York Giants- The Commanders will try to keep their momentum against the Giants who will be playing without Daniel Jones but will start Tyrod Taylor.  The Giants don’t have many receivers that burn defense although Washington’s pass defense must not play down to the level of its competition like it did against the Bears or guys like Wan'dale Moore could get more involved in the passing game.  

Detroit Lions (+3) @ Baltimore Ravens – The Lions have been playing well although perhaps the Ravens can do enough to force Jared Goff into some mistakes.

Buffalo Bills @ New England Patriots (+8.5) -  Mac Jones has looked bad and the Bills do have a propensity to play down to their competition like they did against the Giants and the Jets.  

 

Seattle Seahawks @ Arizona Cardinals (+7.5)  –  Perhaps the Cardinal can continue their trend of covering the spread coming off a bye.

Pittsburgh Steelers (+3)  @ Los Angeles Rams- This is another game where the Steelers fans will outnumber the LA Fans.  The Rams running back situation is also a mess with Kyren Williams out.   

Los Angeles Chargers @ Kansas Chiefs (-5.5) – The Chargers played a competitive game against the Cowboys although they appear to be missing Mike Williams. The Chiefs running game has appeared to have found magic with Pacheco.

Green Bay Packers (-1) @ Denver Broncos – The Packers have not looked great after Jordan Love lead a comeback win against the Saints who was playing without Derrick Carr in critical stretches of the game. The Broncos though seeme to be playing in quicksand.

Miami Dolphins @ Philadelphia Eagles (-2) -  The Dolphins look like a great team although the Eagles may rebound after a bad loss against the Jets.  Still, the Eagles secondary hasn’t looked great. 

 

San Francisco 49ers (-6.5)(LOCK) @ Minnesota Vikings-  According to Adam Schefter, all signs point to Christian McCaffrey playing.  

 

Week 7 Against the Spread - 1-0

Week 7 Straight up – 1-0

Week  Locks - 1-1

2023 Against the Spread - 38-41

2023 Locks - 9-7

2023 Straight Up - 61-31

2023 Week 7 Thursday Night Game

 

According to Ed Werder from ESPN, The Jaguars have never won in the Superdome.  They're 0-3, Trevor Lawrence went 34-2 at Clemson.  Both losses were at the Superdome.

Jacksonville Jaguars (+1) @ New Orleans Saints-   The Jaguars have found their groove by winning their last 3 games in a row after a relatively slow start.  Trevor Lawrence was dealing with a knee injury but should be good to go against a tough defense.  The Saints in the meantime have struggled to find their groove.  Alvin Kamara has been playing well, better than he was season.  And looks like a top 10 running back.  

Week 6 Against the Spread - 9-6

Week 6 Straight up - 12-2

Week 6 Locks - 1-1

2023 Against the Spread - 37-41

2023 Locks - 9-7

2023 Against the Spread - 46-47

2023 Locks - 8-6

2023 Straight Up - 60-31

2023 Week 6 NFL Picks

Mac Jones is now on a short leash according to Ian Rapoport 

Baltimore Ravens (-4)(LOCK) @ Tennessee Titans -  It f eels like the Ravens are an up and down team.  Last week was a down week but they look to put it together against a non-division rival.  Although they could have a let down against the  Titans who do have Derrick Henry.

Carolina Panthers @ Miami Dolphins (-13.5) -  The Dolphins recently acquired Chase Claypool but will be without their rookie running back Archane.  Miles Sanders will this miss this one for the Panthers.  Perhaps the only thing that can put the Panthers in this one is complacency but it looks like the Dolphins should take care of business here.

New Orleans Saints @ Houston Texans (+1.5) - This feels like the Texans should do enough to win the game if Derrick Carr is not himself.  Alvin Kamara has worked himself in by having 22 carries last week.  

Washington Commanders (+2.5) @ Atlanta Falcons-  The Commanders do actually have more rest but are playing on the road.  This game feels like a toss up.   I will go with the Commanders and the points here even if their defense looks shaky, although if Washington can't respond, their head coach Ron Rivera could be in trouble.  

Indianapolis Colts @ Jacksonville Jaguars (-4) -  This is a game where Gardner Minshew returns back to the team that drafted him.   Jonathan Taylor has yet to get get it going since he was awarded his big contract but Zach Moss has looked like the bel cow running back.  Still it seems like the Jaguars have put forward some momentum with some games in London.  

Seattle Seahawks @ Cincinnati Bengals (-3) - Not sure which Bengals team we are getting here and not sure how well Seattle plays on the road.    

Minnesota Vikings @ Chicago Bears(+3) -   It looks like the Vikings will be shorthanded being without Justin Jefferson and Kirk Cousins.   Just feels like the Vikings aren't the same team that can run the ball and play good solid defense.  The Bears have had a few good games in a row and perhaps the forecast of demise of Justin Fields was premature.

San Francisco 49ers (-6)(LOCK) @ Cleveland Browns -  The 49ers have been taking out teams with a stick including the Cowboys.    Could they have a letdown against the Browns who will be without DeShaun Watson.     This time PJ Walker would be the one who would get the start.   The Browns defense could contain the 49ers but the Browns offense is what remains in question.   

New England Patriots @ Las Vegas Raiders (-3) - I don't feel confident that the Raiders will blow out New England with their offense but it may not matter if Mac Jones remains this bad.

Detroit Lions (-3) @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers - Perhaps the Bucs  have a chance to keep it close coming off a bye although the Lions have been running the ball at teams.  

Arizona Cardinals (+7) @ Los Angeles Rams-  Surprisingly the Cardinals have held their own against their opponents although the the Duo of Cooper Kupp and Puka should be enough to propel the Rams .

Philadelphia Eagles @ New York Jets (+7) - With a couple of wins perhaps the Jet's should not be completely written off because they have Zach Wilson.  The Eagles are slightly more competent than the Bills and Chiefs although maybe the Jets can keep this to within a single score if Wilson play well but the Jets have a decimated secondary.

New York Giants @ Buffalo Bills (-14) - Depending on the availability of Saquon Barley- this game could be a snooze fest unless Daniel Jones's backup is a hidden gem.

Dallas Cowboys(-2) @ Los Angeles Chargers-  The Chargers have a better quarterback but the Cowboys have a better defense and usually play better coming off a loss.

Week 6 Against the Spread - 0-1

Week 6 Straight up - 1-0

2023 Against the Spread - 37-42

2023 Locks - 8-6

2023 Straight Up - 49-29

2023 Week 6 Thursday Night Pick

Patrick Mahomes has beaten all 31 NFL Teams before he has lost to the Broncos.

The last time the Broncos beat the Chiefs was September 15, 2015.  

Denver Broncos (+10.5) @ Kanas City Chiefs -  Russell Wilson has struggled much like last season.   Overall, the Broncos have yet to cover this season. While being favored in 3 of the 5 matchups, they only have 1 win on the season.  The Chiefs in the meantime have covered in only 3 of their 5 matchups and have yet to win a game by more than 8 points on the season.  

Still, much of these past results can be thrown out the window given its a Thursday Night Game between division rivals.  For now, I am leaning towards this game being an ugly affair favoring the home team, although given the propensity for the Chiefs to let their opponents hang around a cover would not be unreasonable.  The Chiefs have only beaten the Broncos by an average of 7 points in their last five games.  

Week 5 Against the Spread - 6-8

Week 5 Straight up - 8-6

Week 5 Locks - 2-0

2023 Against the Spread - 37-41

2023 Locks - 8-6

2023 Straight Up - 48-29

2023 Week 5 Thursday Night Pick

According to PFF, Justin Fields has won 5 games in the NFL as a starter. Jameis Winston has been a backup QB since Fields was drafted and has 6 wins over that time.

 Chicago Bears @ Washington Commanders (-5.5) - The last time these two teams played, it was an ugly affair where Carson Wentz managed to edge out the Bears 12-7.  Since then Justin Fields closed out the 2022 season.  The Bears have struggled with an 0-4 start although Field did play better against the Broncos.  

The Commanders have gone to Sam Howell whose up and down play is mainly dictated by Washington's inconsistent line.  This is a game that Washington on paper should take care of although right now Washington has yet to show a real killer instinct in the games that they have been ahead including games against the Cardinals and the Eagles.  The Bears gave a huge lead so perhaps they are angry but for now Washington appears to be the more talented team and maybe the short week can give Washington the advantage here.  

Week 4 Against the Spread - 5-11

Week 4 Straight up - 11-5

2023 Against the Spread - 31-33

2023 Locks - 4-5

2023 Straight Up - 40-23

2023 NFL Week 5 Picks

Jacksonville Jaguars @ Buffalo Bills (-5)  - The Jaguars playing in London again and have yet to lose although the Bills are playing out of their minds including a blowout win against the Dolphins.  This game could be closer if the Bills have any letdown. Evan Engram needs to remain the Jaguars most consistent player against a good Buffalo defense. 

New Orleans Saints (-1.5) @ New England Patriots - The Patriots look terrible although they could game play effectively against Derrick Carr but it still looks like to bet against Mac Jones until he can prove it.

Tennessee Titans @ Indianapolis Colts (-1) (LOCK)-Derrick Henry came alive and managed to take care of business.  The Colts do get Jonathan Taylor back.   

Baltimore Ravens (-3.5) @ Pittsburgh Steelers - Lamar and company just keep taking care of the division.  Pickett has not been good over the last 4 games. 

Carolina Panthers @ Detroit Lions (-9.5) - Detroit is coming out a longer bye. Armon St. Brown which opens the door against the Panthers.  David Montgomery should have a big game. 

Houston Texans (+2.5) @ Atlanta Falcons - Is Kyle Pitts a bad first round pick already.   Could be a close game given the Texans rush defense is poor although the Texans have better quarterback play. 

New York Giants @ Miami Dolphins (-10.5)- Could be a get right game for the Dolphins after a poor showing.  Daniel Jones needs to pick it up. Darren Waller has a good match-up against the Dolphins defense. 

Cincinnati Bengals @ Arizona Cardinals (+3)  -  These are two similar teams so far this season at least if Burrow is not 100%.  Dobbs may be a quality starter.   

Philadelphia Eagles @ Los Angeles Rams (+5) - This is going to be essentially a home game for the Eagles.  Cooper Kupp returns which could open up this game a bit.  

New Orleans Saints(+1.5) @ New England Patriots - This could be ugly game where both teams average 15 points per game.  

New York Jets @ Denver Broncos (-1.5) - I'm not counting on Zach Wilson having back to back good games. 

Kansas City Chiefs @ Minnesota Vikings (+5.5) - The Chiefs lack of offensive weapons outside of Kelce could hurt them although the Vikings defense could make it entertaining.

Dallas Cowboys @ San Francisco 49ers (-3.5)(LOCK) - This could be a battle of defenses.  The 49ers have had Dak Prescot's.

Green Bay Packers @ Las Vegas Raiders (+2.5) -  Jordan Love hasn't been great the last couple of games as the Packers have not been able to get their running game going.  Aaron Jones could rebound this week. 

Week 5 Against the Spread - 0-1

Week 5 Straight up - 0-1

2023 Against the Spread - 31-34

2023 Locks - 4-5

2023 Straight Up - 40-24