— Chris Mortensen (@mortreport) September 11, 2022
Sources: Lamar Jackson rejected a Ravens' 6-yr contract offer with $133 million fully guaranteed at signing, which is more than Russell Wilson ($124 million) and Kyler Murray ($103.3 million) but well short of the $230 million fully guaranteed deal that Deshaun Watson got.
I told my friend that I was going to step away from doing picks a couple of days ago but I still have some thoughts about who is going to win.
BOLDED FOR SPREAD
Italicized for Straight UP
New Orleans Saints @ Atlanta Falcons (+5.5) - Sean Payton stepping away could make the Saints less viable out of the gates although they do have some intriguing offensive weapons including Alvin Kamara returning, the first round draft pick of Olave, plus the Saints get to see a healthy Jameis Winston which should provide explosive plays both for the Saints offense and potentially the Falcons defense.
The Falcons did downgrade their roster a bit with the departure of Matt Ryan and Calvin Ridley out due to his sports betting. The Falcons have a good chance at covering at home against a division rival. Of course, who knows how reliable quarterback Marcus Mariota will be his debut. Not to mention last year that the road team won each matchup.
Baltimore Ravens (-7) @ New York Jets - The Ravens don't seem to have many reliable wide reecivers unless Rashod Bateman can live up to his potential. Still the Ravens should take care of the Jets who are starting Joe Flacco.
San Francisco 49ers @ Chicago Bears (+7) - This matchup features two quarterbacks drafted in the first round including Trey Lance and Justin Fields. Fields looked slightly more impressive in his rookie season than Lance who may be downgrade in the short term over Jimmy G. The 49ers will need a big game out of Deebo Samuels as the 49ers will attempt to pound the ball and control possession. The Bears will likely try the same strategy, relying on David Montgomery and Herbert in the backfield. Darnell Mooney emerges as the Bears number 1 receiver but other than that the Bears will be in trouble to keep up if this becomes a high scoring affair.
Cleveland Browns @ Carolina Panthers (-2.5) - Baker Mayfield makes the start against his former team who are playing without Deshaun Watson. The Panthers will look to get it going on the run as long as Chrisitain McCaffrey can stay healthy.
Pittsburgh Steelers @ Cincinnati Bengals (-6.5) - The Bengals will attempt to avoid the hangover of a Super Bowl losing team that afflicts a number of teams although the Chiefs did manage to make the conference championship following their Super Bowl loss to the Bucks in 2021. The Steelers appear to have a lot of intriguing players including rookie wide receiver George Pickens. Running back Najee Harris will look to build upon his rookie season. Still, the Bengals could win this game by double digits if the Bengals can do what they did last season which was averaged 32.5 points per game against the Steelers.
Philadelphia Eagles (-4) @ Detroit Lions - The Lions were in the HBO TV show Hard Knocks and apparently the team opens well against the spread in their week 1 debut. Still, the Eagles passing attack with Jalen Hurts along with the addition of AJ Brown should be enough to get the Eagles past the Lions. Of course, the Eagles defense needs to pressure Jared Goff into bad decisions, otherwise Armon St Brown will have a big game. Not to mention, Jalen Hurts will have to build upon last season.
New England Patriots @ Miami Dolphins (-3.5) - This could be a good matchup between the Patriots and Dolphins. Homefield advantage for the Dolphins looms large against the Patriots in the warmer weather. Expectations for the Dolphins are abnormally high as it may be the first time the Dolphins have been favored since Tom Brady made his NFL debut. Chase Edmonds could provide a boost for the Dolphins backfield. Tua Tagavoila goes for his 4th win in 4 tries against the Patriots.
Tennessee Titans (-5.5) @ New York Giants - This game features the two best running backs if both can stay healthy. Derrick Henry has shown to be more durable than Saquon Barkley. Although the Titans may be favored in this spot because of their superior defense. Ryan Tannehill looks to bounce back after a disappointing playoff loss to the Bengals.
Green Bay Packers @ Minnesota Vikings (+3.5) - Two former Washington assistants goes at it in Matt Lafleur and Kevin O'Connell. The Vikings actually feature better players at running back and wide receiver with the departure of Davante Adams to the Raiders. Aaron Rodgers is certainly a better quarterback than Kirk Cousins although the Vikings did manage to squeeze a win in their last matchup in Minnesota.
Jacksonville Jaguars (+2.5) @ Washington Commanders- Washington looks to have some impressive weapons from the draft. While Brian Robinson will be out sustaining injuries, which once again gives the opportunity for Antonio Gibson to start in the Commanders lineup, although there was talk of him being being sent to kickoff duty. Carson Wentz will have to overcome the Jaguars who ended up ending his season last season when the Colts were upset the Jaguars last season.
Kansas City Chiefs (-6) @ Arizona Cardinals- The Chiefs will look to atone for their 2nd half collapse against the Cincinnati Bengals. Although hte Chiefs did lose Tyreek Hill, they did address their biggest weakness of last season which was adding to their offensive line. Andy Reid will have to design an offense that is more egalitarian or perhaps it will just feature more of tight end Travis Kelce.
Las Vegas Raiders @ Los Angeles Chargers (-2.5) - In this Sunday Night football matchup, the Raiders will took to come out of the gates especially with the addition of Davante Adams. The Raiders did mange to beat the Chargers last season to clinch a playoff spot over them. Still, that may have been a function of the coin toss.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-2.5) @ Dallas Cowboys - The Bucs offensive line had trouble slowing down the Rams defensive front. Still, the Cowboys also have questions about their offensive line and Ezekiel Elliot hasn't been playing up to par lately.
Denver Broncos (-6.5) @ Seattle Seahawks- Russell Wilson makes his debut against his former team where he was drafted 10 years ago. The Broncos offense will look to get into gear. Javonte Williams could be problematic for Seattle's defense. While Geno Smith has shown an ability to connect with top wideouts including DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett, I still want to see more from Seattle's backfield before taking the points especially with Rashad Penny coming off Covid.
2021 Against the Spread- 151-127-1
2015-16 Against the Spread - 140-110
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