Sunday, September 25, 2022

2022 Week 3 Picks



 Buffalo Bills @ Miami Dolphins (+5.5) - The Bills last took care of the Titans on Monday night by a fairly comfortable margin.  Still, the Dolphins are a division rival who just had an impressive victory against the Ravens.  The Dolphins defense didn't look great though for a majority of the game other than the 4th quarter.  The Bills will likely convert on the short yardage situations to pull them ahead although perhaps this will be a close game as it is in Miami. 


Philadelphia Eagles (-6.5) @ Washington Commanders-  Carson Wentz faces his former team.  It will be interesting to see how if more Washington fans than usual will show up as the Eagles fans have been outnumbering them in recent matchups at Fed Ex field.   Overall, Wentz has been making some questionable decisions although it will be very hard to shut down Washington's receiving corp, the Eagles offense appears to be one of the best in the league and Washington will have to show a much better effort than they have in the past 2 weeks.  


Kansas City Chiefs  @ Indianapolis Colts (+6.5) -  The Colts have looked like tone of the worst teams in the league to start off the season although they weren't helped on the injury front when number 1 wide receiver Michael Pittman was ruled out who is scheduled to make his return this week.   



Detroit Lions (+6) @ Minnesota Vikings -  The Lions looked frisky last week against Washington while the Vikings struggled to maintain a semblance of a gameplan against the Eagles who the Lions actually only lost by 3 points.  The Vikings may rebound from a  bad performance although through 2 weeks, the Lions look like the better team. The only thing that gives me pause is the coaching staff and perhaps Cousins will respond from a very poor showing against Philadelphia.


Houston Texans (+3) @ Chicago Bears-  The Bears passing offense has been anemic through week.  While it wasn't aided by the rain in week 1, quarterback Justin Fields wasn't good at passing the ball downfield either.   Houston has looed much better than expected, so far covering twice and may actually come away with a win.


Las Vegas Raiders (-2.5) @ Tennessee Titans - These may be the most disappointing teams in the AFC along with the Cincinnati Bengals.  Derrick Henry still is getting warmed up while the Raiders had a 20-0 lead at halftime against the Arizona Cardinal, only o let it wilt away in an overtime loss.   I suppose the Raiders have at least shown signs of life, and if Henry can't get it going, the Titans offense appears to be very limited without AJ Brown. 


Jacksonville Jaguars (+7) @ Los Angeles Chargers  -  The Jaguars are coming off a nice win against the Colts and if not for a poor showing in the first half in Washington, perhaps the Jaguars would be 2-0.  The Chargers are coming off a loss to the Chiefs where they kept it close due to some spectacular 4th down conversions by Herbert and the Chargers offense.  Although Herbert's ability to play through ribs may prevent the Chargers from winning this game by a comfortable margin.


Los Angeles Rams (-3.5) @ Arizona Cardinals-  Kyler Murray did enough to take the Cardinals past the Raiders.    The Rams have not looked as elite against the Falcons although their offense is still competent with Cooper Kupp being the most consistent receiver.  


Baltimore Ravens (-3) @ New England Patriots - The Ravens should get a boost from the return of JJ Dobbins.  It could be a close game if the Patriots can slow down Lamar Jackson although if this game become a high scoring affair, the Patriots will be unlikely to keep up.  

New Orleans Saints (-3) @ Carolina Panthers - The Saints are looking to rebound after a loss to the Bucs against a the Panthers who have been struggling this season.  The Saints defense has looked sharp plus the Saints wideouts should get it going against a Panthers defense that still is inconsistent despite an adequate showing against the Giants last week.  


Green Bay Packers @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-1.5) -  The Bucs being without Mike Evans, Chris Godwin, and Julio Jones does even the playing field a little bit.  Although Brady does seem to be motivated against Aaron Rodgers who has not always come to play in these marquee quarterback matchups.  The key to the game will be if Aaron Jones can get it going against a pretty stout Bucs' defense that has already made the Cowboys and Saints look pedestrian. 


Atlanta Falcons @ Seattle Seahawks (-2) - Neither of these teams look likely to make the playoffs.  The Seahawks did win a nice game against the Broncos facing their former quarterback, but really let the game get away against the 49ers the following week.   The Falcons in the meantime have kept it close against the Saints and the Rams.   Atlanta may be the better tea although homefield for the Seahawks makes this far from a guarantee that they will win this one.


Cincinnati Bengals @ New York Jets (+4.5) -  The Jets did just take care of the Browns last week although that was due to some mild incompetence by Nick Chubb who did not giving himself on a touchdown scoring play to ice the game.   The Browns did appear to run the ball extremely well while the Jets passing is aided by a solid group of wide receiver where Flacco can connect with them enough if the Bengals don't provide enough passing pressure.  The Bengals are playing with a sense of desperation although this line seems a bit high given that the Jets did beat the Bengals last season.   


San Francisco 49ers (-1.5) @ Denver Broncos-  Russell Wilson and the Broncos offense has not looked sharp against either the Texans or the Seahawks and neither defense is supposed to be elite.  The 49ers do have familiarity against Russell Wilson.   The potential for the 49ers to come away with with a win increased once Jimmy Garoppolo has been re-inserted back into the lineup.


Dallas Cowboys @ New York Giants (-2.5) -  The Giants surprise win in week 1 lead to an expected win against the Carolina Panthers.  The Giants are actually the favorites here without Dak, although the Cowboys did loo sharp against the Bengals.  Still, the Giants defense should contain the Cowboys running attack after they made Derrick Henry look pedestrian and Christian McCaffrey only had an average game.  


Week 2 against the Spread - 7-9  
Week 2 Straight Up - 10-6

2022 Against the spread - 15-17
2022 Straight up - 18-14

2021 Against the Spread- 151-127-1

2021 Straight Up- 162-101-1
2021 Locks - 10-5

2020 Against the Spread- 124-140-6
2020 Week Straight Up - 173-97-1
2020 Locks- 24-24-2

2019 Season Against the Spread- 128-113-3
2019 Season Straight Up- 158-103
2019 Locks - 21-19-2
2020 Postseason against the Spread- 8-3
2020 Postseason Straight Up- 7-4


2018 Season against the Spread- 112-107-7
2018 Season Straight Up- 137-86-2
2018 Locks- 21-16-2

2017-18 Against the Spread- 121-125-7
2017-18 Season Straight Up - 167-92

2016-17 Against the Spread - 141-115-7
2016-17 Straight Up - 101-41

2015-16 Against the Spread - 140-110 

Sunday, September 18, 2022

2022 Week 2 Picks



Joe Flacco wants to prove he's elite again by helping the Jets avoid going 0-2

New York Jets @ Cleveland Browns (-6) -  I can't in good conscience pick the Jets as long as Joe Flacco is starting.  The Browns look to go 2-0 without Deshaun Watson.


Washington Football Team @ Detroit Lions (-2.5) - Both teams covered last week.   Washington managed to hold onto a lead against the Jaguars although there were signs of a collapse.  The Lions only lost the game 38-35 although perhaps they were aided by the fact the Eagles had little to play for as the Lions managed to outscore the Eagles 17-0.   Wentz's inconsistency scares me in this one, then again his counterpart Jared Goff isn't inspiring.   

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-3) @ New Orleans Saints-  The Saints have seemed to have had Tom Brady's number lately.  The Saints did struggle against the Falcons but did manage to pull it together in the 2nd half.  Jameis Winston looked sharp.  That being said, his play from game to game has been inconsistent- plus Alvin Kamara is out for this game.  

Carolina Panthers @ New York Giants (-2.5) -  Saquon Barkely should be in line for an even bigger game against a Panthers team that didn't take care of its business against a Browns team the previous week.

New England Patriots  @ Pittsburgh Steelers (+1.5) - The Patriots have been effective at slowing down the Steelers. That being said the Steelers did look sharp in an unexpected win against the Bengals.  


Indianapolis Colts @ Jacksonville Jaguars (+4) - The Colts season last week was ended by the Jaguars in a meaningless game.  The Jaguars offense does look a bit spring with the the return of James Robinson.  Michael Pittman for the Colts is also out.

Miami Dolphins @ Baltimore Ravens (-3.5) - Tyreek Hill has given the Ravens trouble in the past although the Ravens may be able to slow him down enough.  It will be interesting to see how the Dolphins play on the road against the Ravens who typically hold up well at home.

Atlanta Falcons (+10) @ Los Angeles Rams-  The Falcons could falter a bit on the road although they did manage to do enough to keep it close against the Saints last week.  This is the biggest point spread of the week and people are assuming to the Rams will get back on track after a long week to prepare.  Although there inability to run the ball was concerning against the Bills.  

Seattle Seahawks (+10) @ San Francisco 49ers - Perhaps the Seahawks can keep it relatively close against a division rival.   Especially since the 49ers will be without Elijah Mitchell.  The Seahawks will have to avoid an emotional letdown after just beating Russell Wilson last week, although their defense did seem solid in that game.

Cincinnati Bengals (-7.5) @ Dallas Cowboys - Without Dak Prescott, this could be a tough one for the Cowboys to overcome, especially since the Bengals want to avoid going 0-2 after their surprising playoff run last season.

Houston Texans (+10) @ Denver Broncos- The Texans did play the Colts tight for most of the week while the Broncos are still looking to get things in gear for Russell Wilson.  As of right now, it may be best to see see how the Bronco's offense plays out before trusting them to cover here.

Arizona Cardinals (+6) @ Las Vegas Raiders-  The Cardinals looked sloppy against the Chiefs although their defense is slightly better than the Raiders.  Look for Kyler Murray to play better after a poor showing in week 1.

Chicago Bears (+10) @ Green Bay Packers -  The Packers didn't really look up to it against their week 1 matchup against the Vikings   Their inability to slow down Justin Jefferson is concerning.  Although the Bears have struggled in Lambeau, they are coming off a nice win against the 49ers in week 1. 


Tennessee Titans (+10) @ Buffalo Bills - For some reason the Titans have played the Bills close.  Although this time it is in Buffalo.  Still, the Titans need to show a much better effort than they did against the Giants to keep it close.

Minnesota Vikings (+2.5) @ Philadelphia Eagles - Justin Jefferson looked great against the Green Bay Packers.   The Eagles did manage to beat the Lions last week and AJ Brown could present more problems than  whatever the Packers had to throw last week.  Still, the Vikings could come away with a road victory here.  


Week 1 against the Spread - 8-8  
Week 1 Straight Up - 8-8

2021 Against the Spread- 151-127-1

2021 Straight Up- 162-101-1
2021 Locks - 10-5

2020 Against the Spread- 124-140-6
2020 Week Straight Up - 173-97-1
2020 Locks- 24-24-2

2019 Season Against the Spread- 128-113-3
2019 Season Straight Up- 158-103
2019 Locks - 21-19-2
2020 Postseason against the Spread- 8-3
2020 Postseason Straight Up- 7-4


2018 Season against the Spread- 112-107-7
2018 Season Straight Up- 137-86-2
2018 Locks- 21-16-2

2017-18 Against the Spread- 121-125-7
2017-18 Season Straight Up - 167-92

2016-17 Against the Spread - 141-115-7
2016-17 Straight Up - 101-41

2015-16 Against the Spread - 140-110 

Sunday, September 11, 2022

2022 Week 1 Picks


I told my friend that I was going to step away from doing picks a couple of days ago but I still have some thoughts about who is going to win.


BOLDED FOR SPREAD

Italicized for Straight UP

 New Orleans Saints @ Atlanta Falcons (+5.5) - Sean Payton stepping away could make the Saints less viable out of the gates although they do have some intriguing offensive weapons including Alvin Kamara returning, the first round draft pick of Olave, plus the Saints get to see a healthy Jameis Winston which should provide explosive plays both for the Saints offense and potentially the Falcons defense.   

The Falcons did downgrade their roster a bit with the departure of Matt Ryan and Calvin Ridley out due to his sports betting.  The Falcons have a good chance at covering at home against a division rival.  Of course, who knows how reliable quarterback Marcus Mariota will be his debut.  Not to mention last year that the road team won each matchup.

Baltimore Ravens (-7) @ New York Jets - The Ravens don't seem to have many reliable wide reecivers unless Rashod Bateman can live up to his potential.  Still the Ravens should take care of the Jets who are starting Joe Flacco.  

San Francisco 49ers @ Chicago Bears (+7) - This matchup features two quarterbacks drafted in the first round including Trey Lance and Justin Fields.   Fields looked slightly more impressive in his rookie season than Lance who may be downgrade in the short term over Jimmy G.  The 49ers will need a big game out of Deebo Samuels as the 49ers will attempt to pound the ball and control possession.  The Bears will likely try the same strategy, relying on David Montgomery and Herbert in the backfield.   Darnell Mooney emerges as the Bears number 1 receiver but other than that the Bears will be in trouble to keep up if this becomes a high scoring affair.

Cleveland Browns @ Carolina Panthers (-2.5) - Baker Mayfield makes the start against his former team who are playing without Deshaun Watson.  The Panthers will look to get it going on the run as long as Chrisitain McCaffrey can stay healthy.  

Pittsburgh Steelers @ Cincinnati Bengals (-6.5) -  The Bengals will attempt to avoid the hangover of a Super Bowl losing team that afflicts a number of teams although the Chiefs did manage to make the conference championship following their Super Bowl loss to the Bucks in 2021.  The Steelers appear to have a lot of intriguing players including rookie wide receiver George Pickens.  Running back Najee Harris will look to build upon his rookie season.   Still, the Bengals could win this game by double digits if the Bengals can do what they did last season which was averaged 32.5 points per game against the Steelers.  

Philadelphia Eagles (-4) @ Detroit Lions  - The Lions were in the HBO TV show Hard Knocks and apparently the team opens well against the spread in their week 1 debut.  Still, the Eagles passing attack with Jalen Hurts along with the addition of AJ Brown should be enough to get the Eagles past the Lions.  Of course, the Eagles defense needs to pressure Jared Goff into bad decisions, otherwise Armon St Brown will have a big game.  Not to mention, Jalen Hurts will have to build upon last season.  

New England Patriots @ Miami Dolphins (-3.5) -  This could be a good matchup between the Patriots and Dolphins.  Homefield advantage for the Dolphins looms large against the Patriots in the warmer weather.  Expectations for the Dolphins are abnormally high as it may be the first time the Dolphins have been favored since Tom Brady made his NFL debut.  Chase Edmonds could provide a boost for the Dolphins backfield.  Tua Tagavoila goes for his 4th win in 4 tries against the Patriots.

Tennessee Titans (-5.5) @ New York Giants -  This game features the two best running backs if both can stay healthy.  Derrick Henry has shown to be more durable than Saquon Barkley.  Although the Titans may be favored in this spot because of their superior defense.  Ryan Tannehill looks to bounce back after a disappointing playoff loss to the Bengals.   

Green Bay Packers @ Minnesota Vikings (+3.5) - Two former Washington assistants goes at it in Matt Lafleur and Kevin O'Connell.   The Vikings actually feature better players at running back and wide receiver with the departure of Davante Adams to the Raiders.  Aaron Rodgers is certainly a better quarterback than Kirk Cousins although the Vikings did manage to squeeze a win in their last matchup in Minnesota.  

Jacksonville Jaguars (+2.5) @ Washington Commanders- Washington looks to have some impressive weapons from the draft.  While Brian Robinson will be out sustaining injuries, which once again gives the opportunity for Antonio Gibson to start in the Commanders lineup, although there was talk of him being being sent to kickoff duty.  Carson Wentz will have to overcome the Jaguars who ended up ending his season last season when the Colts were upset the Jaguars last season. 

Kansas City Chiefs (-6) @ Arizona Cardinals- The Chiefs will look to atone for their 2nd half collapse against the Cincinnati Bengals.  Although hte Chiefs did lose Tyreek Hill, they did address their biggest weakness of last season which was adding to their offensive line.   Andy Reid will have to design an offense that is more egalitarian or perhaps it will just feature more of tight end Travis Kelce.

Las Vegas Raiders @ Los Angeles Chargers (-2.5) - In this Sunday Night football matchup, the Raiders will took to come out of the gates especially with the addition of Davante Adams.  The Raiders did mange to beat the Chargers last season to clinch a playoff spot over them.  Still, that may have been a function of the coin toss.  

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-2.5) @ Dallas Cowboys -   The Bucs offensive line had trouble slowing down the Rams defensive front.  Still, the Cowboys also have questions about their offensive line and Ezekiel Elliot hasn't been playing up to par lately.

Denver Broncos (-6.5) @ Seattle Seahawks-  Russell Wilson makes his debut against his former team where he was drafted 10 years ago.   The Broncos offense will look to get into gear.  Javonte Williams could be problematic for Seattle's defense.  While Geno Smith has shown an ability to connect with top wideouts including DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett, I still want to see more from Seattle's backfield before taking the points especially with Rashad Penny coming off Covid.  



2021 Against the Spread- 151-127-1

2021 Straight Up- 162-101-1
2021 Locks - 10-5

2020 Against the Spread- 124-140-6
2020 Week Straight Up - 173-97-1
2020 Locks- 24-24-2

2019 Season Against the Spread- 128-113-3
2019 Season Straight Up- 158-103
2019 Locks - 21-19-2
2020 Postseason against the Spread- 8-3
2020 Postseason Straight Up- 7-4


2018 Season against the Spread- 112-107-7
2018 Season Straight Up- 137-86-2
2018 Locks- 21-16-2

2017-18 Against the Spread- 121-125-7
2017-18 Season Straight Up - 167-92

2016-17 Against the Spread - 141-115-7
2016-17 Straight Up - 101-41

2015-16 Against the Spread - 140-110