Sunday, November 15, 2020

2020 Week 10 NFL Picks

For the first time in 728 days, Alex Smith will start an NFL Game.



Sunday

Cincinnati Bengals @ Pittsburgh Steelers (-6.5) - Burrows has looked great in every matchup except the Ravens and could do enough to cover here considering some injuries to the Steelers defense has left them shorthanded.  The windy weather could have an impact on this game which should favor the Steelers since the Bengals will be without Joe Mixon.  

Philadelphia Eagles (-5)(LOCK) @ New York Giants -  Wentz really struggled in his last matchup against the Giants although a couple of things will be in his favor.  There should not be 25 mile per hour winds blowing his passes away.  He will have a healthy Miles Sanders and Alshon Jeffrey back as well as a few offensive offensive linemen.  And he is coming off a bye.

The Giants in the meantime are coming off a nice win against Washington where Jones has secured 4 of his 5 career wins.  

Jacksonville Jaguars @ Green Bay Packers (-13.5) -  Everything appears to be rolling for the Packers again who really took care of business against the 49ers.  Will the Packers approach the game against the Jaguars with the same sense of urgency?  

And perhaps the Jaguars with Luton and Robinson may be a bit underrated offensively.  Still the Jaguars defense has been pretty awful for most of the season and have largely been inconsistent.

Washington Football Team @ Detroit Lions (-2.5) -  Washington's team has been edging closer to showing signs of being a competent team.  Unfortunately, Washington's passing game has still been showing questions.   

The running game for Washington should be interesting to monitor, the rookie Gibson is clearly a more explosive running back.  However, McKissic is the one that's in the game when Washington runs its two minute offense. 

The Lions in the meantime have struggled on both ends last week against the Vikings.  The Lions did actually beat the Cardinals who blew out Washington earlier this season.  It still remains to be seen which Lions team we see if Stafford being banged up with a concussion forces the Lions handand how the Lions will fare without Kenny Golladay.  

Houston Texans @ Cleveland Browns (-4.5) -  Houston's defense has still made games way to interesting for opponents.  Mayfield returns and has seemed to play better in the absence of Odell Beckham.  The windy weather should favor the Browns who get Nick Chubb back into the lineup while the Texans will be without David Johnson for the foreseeable future.  

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-5.5)(LOCK) @ Carolina Panthers -  Tampa Bay has really been terrible against the Saints but great against every other opponent.  Like Tom Brady's last team, expect the Bucs to respond better coming off a loss that humiliating loss and have a favorable matchup with especially with the absence of Christian McCaffery.

Los Angeles Chargers @ Miami Dolphins (-2) -  Tua looked sharp against the Cardinals and has another favorable matchup against the Chargers defense.  Herbert could do enough to pull out a win and the Dolphins will now be without Gaskins and Preston Williams.  

Denver Broncos (+3.5) @ Las Vegas Raiders -The Denver Broncos have looked much better with Drew Locke under center.  While a large portion of his production has come at the end of games, at least one of those resulted in a win.  The Raiders have also been playing better and may have the formula to slow down the Broncos given that their defense is better than the both the Falcons and the Chargers.  

Buffalo Bills (-3) @ Arizona Cardinals - These are two of the highest rated statistical quarterbacks.  The Cardinals have a banged up secondary which could lead to John Brown having a big game. There is a roadmap for the Cardinals to make this close if they can slow down Allen like the Patriots did in week 8.  The Bills are already looking to improve upon their record of 2-0 against NFC West, one of the stronger division in the NFL.   

San Francisco 49ers @ New Orleans Saints (-9.5) - The 49ers appear to be getting back a few more of their pieces although they will still be without Deebo Samuels, George Kittle, Raheem Mostert, and Jimmy G.  The Saints have shown a propensity to keep lesser opponents in games except the Bucs.  Still one has to expect Michael Thomas to make the Saints extremely hard to slow down and should open up the rest of the offense.   

Seattle Seahawks (+2.5) @ Los Angeles Rams -  Everyone is pegging this as the Rams win.  That being said, this game is certainly in a toss up range.  Seattle would be a clear favorite to me if they were fully healthy but as is the case for most teams, they will be without starting running back Chris Carson.  The Rams could have an effective game plan to capitalize on the Seahawks lackluster defense although maybe they are due for a better performance against an Inconsistent Jared Goff who is very boom or bust player.  

Baltimore Ravens (-7)(LOCK) @ New England Patriots -The Ravens seems to take advantage of lesser teams and perhaps the Patriots are one of them.  Cam Newton did everything he could to win that game but were a play or two away from losing to the Jets.  Baltimore doesn't appear to be satisfied with a win against the Colts and will likely need a good defensive effort to complete a cover in this one.  Expect the Ravens to move the ball better on the ground against a weaker Patriots defense.  

Monday

Minnesota Vikings (-3) @ Chicago Bears - This is simply the Dalvin Cook show at this point.  The Bears are a weird team whose defense can keep in them in most games but if they don't their offense can't keep pace if the game gets out of hand.  Kirk Cousins could be susceptible to some mistakes but even then Cook has appeared to be great with back to back multi TD games.  An injury and even the Bears defense could slow him down who di well enough job on Derrick Henry but other than that the Viking appear to be the team on the up and up despite a worse record.  

Week 9 Against the Spread- 0-1
Week 9 Straight Up- 0-1
2020 Against the Spread- 65-68-2
2020 Week Straight Up - 87-47-1
2020 Locks- 17-15-1

2019 Season Against the Spread- 128-113-3
2019 Season Straight Up- 158-103
2019 Locks - 21-19-2
2020 Postseason against the Spread- 8-3
2020 Postseason Straight Up- 7-4


2018 Season against the Spread- 112-107-7
2018 Season Straight Up- 137-86-2
2018 Locks- 21-16-2

2017-18 Against the Spread- 121-125-7

2017-18 Season Straight Up - 167-92

2016-17 Against the Spread - 141-115-7
2016-17 Straight Up - 101-41

2015-16 Against the Spread - 140-110

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