Sunday, November 22, 2020

2020 NFL Week 11 Picks

Tua looks to join Big Ben as the only QBs
in the last 40 years to win their first 4 starts as rookies


Sunday

Cincinnati Bengals (+1.5) @ Washington Football Team - Alex Smith has been airing it out fairly well recently although he has only thrown for one touchdown since being inserted as a starter.  Joe Burrows could still be effective in taking advantage of Washington's pass defense if he can avoid the pressure.  He has been the 5th most sacked quarterback this season.  While Antonio Gibson has been effective lately, the Bengals rushing defense has been more solid lately. 

Atlanta Falcons @ New Orleans Saints (-3.5) - The New Orleans Saints have named Taysom Hill the starter which is a surprising development especially in the fantasy football community where Hill is eligible to start as tight end in ESPN leagues.  With the Falcons coming off a bye, look for them to air it out with Calvin Ridley coming back into the lineup.  Todd Gurley has been reliable out of the backfield although he goes against the Saints number 1 rushing defense.  

Pittsburgh Steelers(-10.5) @ Jacksonville Jaguars - This is a 2018 rematch of the AFC playoff game.  Not much remains of that Jacksonville team who hasn't shown much since a week 1 opening win against the Colts.  The Steelers still remain undefeated and look to take advantage of a poor Jaguars defense.  James Robinson could be in a for a big game for the Jaguars who has gotten more pass catching work as a running back with Chris Thompson out with an injury.  

Green Bay Packers (+1.5) @ Indianapolis Colts -  Davante Adams and Allan Lazard are healthy which could allow the Packers to open the offense up more.  Phillip Rivers has utilized rookie wideout Michael Pitman effectively.  Naheem Hines will reportedly take a lion share of the carries over Jonathan Williams - although there is still a potential for the rookie Williams to get back into the rotation against a below average Packers rushing defense.   

New England Patriots (-2.5) @ Houston Texans  -  DeShaun Watson has played well since the firing of Bill O'Brien and only struggled against the Browns largely due to the wind.  The Patriots are still coming off a nice win against the Ravens where they have run the ball well.

Philadelphia Eagles (+2.5) @ Cleveland Browns  - Carson Wentz has really struggled this season although perhaps the Giants may have been a tough matchup .  The Browns have had trouble at times pressuring the quarterback and their defense could take a hit with the absence of Myles Garret in the lineup.  The Browns will still be powered by Nick Chubb who has a 15 yard rush every 10.5 plays which is the best in the NFL.  

Detroit Lions (-3) @ Carolina Panthers - Stafford is playing with an injured thumb and will be without his top wideout Kenny Golladay and best running back DeAndre Swift. The Panthers offense still has managed to get it going without Christian McCaffery and look  to take advantage of a below average Lions pass defense who nearly blew a 24 point lead to Washington.  The former XFL quarterback Walker gets the start instead of Bridgewater who is banged up with an injury.

Tennessee Titans (+6) @ Baltimore Ravens - Lamar Jackson has not been nearly as effective this season through the passing game as he was last season    The Titans defense has been below average .  Mark Ingram returns to the lineup; he's having a down year meaning it could make the Ravens running game worse.  Tannehill and Henry could do enough to keep this game close.

Miami Dolphins (-3.5)(LOCK) @ Denver Broncos - The Dolphins defense could do well against staring QB Brandon Locke who has been shaky this season.   Ahmed has been good at running the ball and Dolphins may choose to integrate Matt Breida back into the lineup.  

Los Angeles Chargers (-9.5) @ New York Jets  -  The Chargers have been competitive in a lot of games but lost several close games.  Herbert has been playing extremely well and that trend should continue against the Jets defense.  Joe Flacco has done a good job getting the passing game going.  T

Dallas Cowboys @ Minnesota Vikings (-7)(LOCK) - The Dallas Cowboys are in contention for both a top 5 pick and a playoff spot.   Andy Dalton is coming back to the lineup but he still has syptoms from recovering from CoVid.   

Kansas City Chiefs (-8) @ Las Vegas Raiders - The Raiders did beat the Chiefs earlier this season.  The Chiefs could have been taking them lightly and the Raiders have been very inconsistent since.  

Monday

Los Angeles Rams (+4) @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers - The Rams could generate an effective passing rush which could slow down Brady.  The Bucs defense could also do enough to cause havoc.  Given that the Bucs have a slightly better receiving corps and running backs. they could still come up on top.  


Week 11 Against the Spread- 0-1
Week 11 Straight Up- 0-1
2020 Against the Spread- 71-74-2
2020 Week Straight Up - 96-51-1
2020 Locks- 18-17-1

2019 Season Against the Spread- 128-113-3
2019 Season Straight Up- 158-103
2019 Locks - 21-19-2
2020 Postseason against the Spread- 8-3
2020 Postseason Straight Up- 7-4


2018 Season against the Spread- 112-107-7
2018 Season Straight Up- 137-86-2
2018 Locks- 21-16-2

2017-18 Against the Spread- 121-125-7

2017-18 Season Straight Up - 167-92

2016-17 Against the Spread - 141-115-7
2016-17 Straight Up - 101-41

2015-16 Against the Spread - 140-110

No comments: