Week 16 Saturday Picks

Indianapolis @ Baltimore (-13.5) - The Colts looked shaky last week against the Broncos and could struggle against the Ravens on the roads who are looking to make a playoff push. 

Minnesota (-9.5) @ Green Bay - The Packers have conceded a lost season by putting Aaron Rodgers on injured reserve.  Look for the Vikings to take advantage who are still fighting for the top playoff spot in the NFC. 

Week 15 Picks Against the Spread - 8-5-1
Week 15 Picks Straight up - 10-4
2017-18 Against the Spread- 102-104-7
2017-18 Season Straight Up - 139-77
2016-17 Against the Spread - 141-115-7
2016-17 Straight Up - 101-41
2015-16 Against the Spread - 140-107

You can see some of my picks for this week and the rest of the season here on Sports on the Hill Podcast.

https://m.facebook.com/story.php?story_fbid=668345883554829&id=178959225826833

Week 15 Picks Lightning Edition

Houston @ Jacksonville (-10.5) - The Jaguars will be without Leonard Fournette but their defense could be troublesome for TJ Yates. 

Baltimore (-7) @ Cleveland - The Ravens will look to take out last week's frustrating loss to the Steelers.

Green Bay @ Carolina (-3) - Aaron Rodgers return could be anti-climatic mostly because he will have to overcome a lot of rust against a Panthers' team that is also playing for a playoff spot. 

Miami  @ Buffalo (-3)  - Miami has been playing extremely well over the past few weeks including a nice double digit victory against the Patriots.  Tyrod Taylor returns and the cold weather could favor the Bills. 

Cincinnati @ Minnesota (-11) - After getting blown out by the Bears, the Bengals face an uphill battle in Minnesota.

Arizona (+4) @ Washington - Washington's defense is a mess.  Arizona did a nice job last season containing Kirk Cousins. 

Philadelphia (-7.5) @ NY Giants - The Eagles did lose Carson Wentz for the season but the Giants appear to be running on fumes without Odell Beckham.  Engram is a nice tight end going forward but have already lost to NFC East opponents by double digits due to an inconsistent running game. 

LA Rams (+1.5) @ Seattle - Seattle at home is always scary but have already lost two games at home mostly due to a banged up secondary. 

Tennessee @ San Francisco (-1.5) - This is the first time I can remember a 3-10 team being favored against a 8-5 one.  Jimmy Garoppolo is living up to the hype.  Marcus Mariotta's 10 touchdown to 14 turnovers has left a lot to be desired.   

New England @ Pittsburgh (+3) - The Patriots were schooled by the Dolphins but that should be used as a motivation to play well in the game that matters.  Still, the Steelers offense has been explosive which could spell trouble for the Patriots defense which has been banged up.  The Steelers have outscored their opponents in the 32-7.  The Steelers need to play with that kind of desperation to win.  The Steelers appear to have more talent so I am predicting them to win although it may be tough given that the Steelers have lost 4 straight to the Patriots.

Dallas (-2) @ Oakland - Dallas has won it's last two games without Ezekiel Elliot and looks to keep it's playoff hopes alive.

Week 15 Picks Against the Spread - 0-3
Week 15 Picks Straight up - 1-2
2017-18 Against the Spread- 94-102-6
2017-18 Season Straight Up - 130-75
2016-17 Against the Spread - 141-115-7
2016-17 Straight Up - 101-41
2015-16 Against the Spread - 140-107

Week 15 Saturday Picks

- Italicized for win

- Bolded for spread

Chicago (+5) @ Detroit - Detroit has not won a game by more than 3 since week 9.   Chicago is a run heavy team while Detroit will choose to pass the ball.   If Detroit jumps out to an early lead it could spell trouble for the Bears, although given Detroit has a poor rush defense, the Bears could keep it close.

LA Chargers (-1) @ Kansas City - The Chargers are playing well and the Chiefs' offense has only recently started to play well over the last 2 weeks. That being said, the Chargers have lost their last 7 games against Kansas Chiefs since 2013 and the Chiefs should receive a boost in their secondary as Marcus Peters comes back from an internal suspension.  Still, the Chargers appear to have the defensive edge since they are 3rd in interceptions and could force Alex Smith into some bad throws. 

Week 15 Picks Against the Spread - 0-1
Week 15 Picks Straight up - 0-1
2017-18 Against the Spread- 94-100-6
2017-18 Season Straight Up - 129-74
2016-17 Against the Spread - 141-115-7
2016-17 Straight Up - 101-41
2015-16 Against the Spread - 140-107

Week 15 Thursday Night Pick

With 59 yards, Frank Gore would notch his 12th consecutive season 

with 1,000 + yards from scrimmage, the second longest  

streak in NFL history (Emmitt Smith 13

- Italicized for win- Bolded for spread

Denver @ Indianapolis (+2.5) - These are two below average teams.  While the Colts are coming off an overtime game in the snow, they are still 5-1 against the spread at home.  The Broncos' defense looked sharp against the Jets but it should be taken with a grain of salt considering Bryce Petty missed some easy passes in place of the injured McCown. The Broncos will be without four starters including Domata Peko, Derek Wolfe, Ron Leary, and Aquib Talib.  Frank Gore looks to add to his 760 yard total this season.  His body may feel a bit winded after carrying the ball 36 times in the Colts loss to the Bills.  But even at 34, Gore will attempt to amass over 1,000 yards rushing for the 10th season in his career although he will have his work cut out for him against a Broncos team that only gave up 45 yards rushing last week.  

Week 14 Picks Against the Spread - 9-7
Week 14 Picks Straight up - 9-7
2017-18 Against the Spread- 94-99-6
2017-18 Season Straight Up - 129-73
2016-17 Against the Spread - 141-115-7
2016-17 Straight Up - 101-41
2015-16 Against the Spread - 140-107

My picks can also be found on the Sports on the Hill Podcast at around 2:05:45 mark.  

Week 14 Picks Lightning Edition

Green Bay (-3) @ Cleveland - Brett Hundley is still an inconsistent quarterback but the Packers have managed to remain competitive last week despite of it thanks to a solid running game by their two young running backs, Jones and Williams.

  

Detroit (-3) @ Tampa Bay - Detroit has struggled, losing 4 of its past games against winning teams.  The Lions are undefeated against teams under .500.  The Bucs in the meantime have lost their 7 games with Winston starting. 

Oakland(+4) @ Kansas City - The last game ended in dramatic fashion in a Raiders' one point victory.  I expect the Chiefs to win at home by a field goal. 

Minnesota (-2.5) @ Carolina - Minnesota has a solid defense that has traveled well with 5 road wins.  Carolina's offense even with Greg Olsen back has been inconsistent.  

San Francisco (+2.5) @ Houston - San Francisco was limited to field goals in Jimmy Garoppolo's first start but the Texans defense is not as good as Chicago's defense.

Indianapolis @ Buffalo(-3) - Buffalo was semi-competitive for a while against the Patriots and may look better against a team like the Colts at home.  

Chicago(+6.5) @ Cincinnati - The Bengals are coming off a short week but should be feeling more motivated after a loss to a hated division rival.

Dallas (-3.5) @ NY Giants- Eli is back although he still has not won a division game this season.  Stranger things have happened in this weird NFC East rivalry but the Cowboys appear to have found a good running game with Alfred Morris.  Linebacker Sean Lee is also returning.

Tennessee(-3) @ Arizona - Teams are figuring out Blaine Gabbert and AP is out again.
 
NY Jets(-1) @ Denver - Josh McCown could have been had by Denver this past offseason.  

Washington @ LA Chargers (-6) - While the Chargers often play down to their competition as they did last week against the Browns, I suspect they will take Washington more seriously as LA is still playing for a division title.  

Seattle(+2.5) @ Jacksonville - Jacksonville has a better defense and a better running game but at the end of the day Russell Wilson is a better quarterback than Blake Bortles.

Philadelphia(+1) @ LA Rams - It may feel like a road game for Rams with nearby Eagles fans in what should be a toss up game.  

Baltimore @ Pittsburgh (-4) - Complacency may have set in a bit with the Steelers in a couple narrow victories against the Colts and the Bengals.  That being said, the Ravens were blown out at home and seem unlikely to beat the Steelers on the road.  

New England @ Miami (+11) - For some reason, the Patriots are 7-8 with the hoodie as a head coach against Miami.  With Gronkowski out, the Dolphins could lose by less than double digits.   

You can find my picks on the Sports on the Hill Podcast at the 2 hour 19 minute and 45 second mark.



Week 13 Picks Against the Spread - 9-7
Week 13 Picks Straight up - 12-4
2017-18 Against the Spread- 85-92-6
2017-18 Season Straight Up - 120-66
2016-17 Against the Spread - 141-115-7
2016-17 Straight Up - 101-41
2015-16 Against the Spread - 140-107

Week 14 Thursday Night Pick

- Italicized for win

- Bolded for spread

New Orleans (+2.5) @ Atlanta - In what could be a high scoring game, look for the Saints to get a boost with defensive rookie of the year Marhon Lattimore back in the lineup.  Ingram and Kamara look to carry the Saints to another victory. 

You can find my picks on the Sports on the Hill Podcast at the 2 hour 19 minute and 45 second mark.



Week 13 Picks Against the Spread - 9-7
Week 13 Picks Straight up - 12-4
2017-18 Against the Spread- 85-92-6
2017-18 Season Straight Up - 120-66
2016-17 Against the Spread - 141-115-7
2016-17 Straight Up - 101-41
2015-16 Against the Spread - 140-107

Week 13 Picks Lightning Edition

Picks
- Italicized for win- Bolded for spread

Minnesota @ Atlanta (-3) - Julio Jones appears to be clicking on all cylinders.  The Vikings are 0-1 on the road against teams projected to make the playoffs. 
 
Houston(+7) @ Tennessee - The Titans have played their opponents close lately, they have won four of their past five games but their last four wins have been by 4 points or less. 

Kansas City @ NY Jets (+3.5) - The Jets have played well at home.  The Chiefs have lost five of their past six games. 

Denver @ Miami (+1.5) - The Broncos will be without their top corner Talib.  Jay Cutler clears the concussion protocol and plays the team that drafted him. 

Indianapolis @ Jacksonville (-9.5) - Jacksonville shut out the Colts 27-0  in their first meeting.

Tampa Bay(+2.5) @ Green Bay - Jameis Winston returns, hopefully he hasn't eaten all his fingers since he's been out.

Detroit (+3) @ Baltimore - It should be a low scoring game.  The best quarterback that the Ravens have beaten this year so far is Andy Dalton.

New England (-9) @ Buffalo - The Patriots defense has picked it up.  The Bills offensive line is still sub-par. 

San Francisco(+3) @ Chicago - Jimmy Garappolo makes his first start. 

Cleveland (+14) @ LA Chargers - The Chargers actually lost to this Browns team last season. 

NY Giants (+8.5) @ Oakland - Unless Geno Smith plays terribly, which is a possibility, the Giants could make this game close. 

Carolina (+5) @ New Orleans - The Saints beat the Panthers by 3 touchdowns last time.  Their last two meetings in New Orleans have been  decided by a field goal. 

LA Rams (-7) @ Arizona - The Rams coming off a win against the Saints look to take advantage of Blaine Gabbert. 

Philadelphia @ Seattle (+5) - Seattle needs this game more than the Eagles in order to keep its playoff hopes alive. 

Pittsburgh(-5) @ Cincinnati - The Steelers appear to be a team that plays to the level of their competition and may pull out a gadget play or two against a hated division rival. 

Week 12 Picks Against the Spread - 8-7
Week 12 Picks Straight up - 12-3
2017-18 Against the Spread- 76-85-6
2017-18 Season Straight Up - 108-62
2016-17 Against the Spread - 141-115-7
2016-17 Straight Up - 101-41
2015-16 Against the Spread - 140-107