Week 2 NFL Picks

Brett Favre says that Washington's use

 of Josh Norman makes no sense

Dallas @ Washington (-3) - Washington is hoping that they can get their running game going against Cowboys, after Washington struggled immensely doing just that against the Steelers.  Prescott did show flashes of being a solid QB but could struggle on the road as a rookie QB.  Washington was effective last year in slowing down Bryant with Breeland although perhaps Washington should consider shadowing Bryant with Norman given the amount of money Washington gave the pro-bowl corner this past offseason.  

New Orleans (+4) @ New York Giants - New Orleans one point loss against the Raiders is more impressive than the Giants one point win against Dallas.  Questions remain whether the Saints travel well but Brees could take advantage of the Giants secondary who could struggle in containing the Saints wide receivers.  

Tennessee @ Detroit (-6.5) - Detroit's offense didn't miss a beat without Calvin Johnson.  If Detroit can get a more impressive showing from their defense, the Lions could pull pull away from the Titans whose offense struggled greatly at home against the Vikings.

San Francisco @ Carolina (-13.5) - This could be a tough game for the 49ers to stay competitive because of the relatively early start game time starts and that the Panthers have had extra time to prepare from the Thursday night opener.

Miami Dolphins @ New England (-6.5) - New England looked sharp against the Cardinals without Brady and Gronkowski.  While the Dolphins kept it close against the Seahawks in Seattle, questions still remain on how effective their offense can be.  Dolphins could receive a boost if Arian Foster plays.  

Kansas City (+1) @ Houston -  The Chiefs came away with a close win after finally got it going in the 2nd half against the Chargers.  Brock Osweiler will certainly have his hands full against the Kansas City's defense.  

Cincinnati @ Pittsburgh (-3) - The Bengals came away with a close win against the Jets that was decided by the final possession.  The Steelers look to repeat the success that they had with Antonio Brown and now DeAngelo Williams.  

Baltimore @ Cleveland (+5.5) - Losing RG3 for a few weeks may actually help the Browns in the short term.  Baltimore's defense did hold down the Bills but one has to handicap that considering what the Jets did to the Bills on Thursday night.  

Green Bay (-2) @ Minnesota - The Packers look to win their 2nd consecutive game on the road against a division rival.  The Vikings did slow the Titans but the Packers offense is a different animal.  

Indianapolis (+6.5) @ Denver - Luck should be motivated after a tough loss against the Lions.  Denver's defense may not be as good as last season. 

Tampa Bay (+7) @ Arizona - Jameis Winston looks like he's a force to be reckoned with especially with Mike Evans as deep threat. Questions remain about Arizona including if Palmer is still consistent.  

Atlanta @ Oakland (-4.5)- The Falcons should have come away with a win and might struggle against a Raiders team which came away with an impressive win against New Orleans.  

Jacksonville (+3) @ San Diego - Blake Bortles and the Jaguars kept it close against the Packers.   The Chargers may have trouble especially since they struggled stopping the Chiefs offense in the 2nd half plus will be without Keenan Allen for the remainder of the season.  

Seattle (+6) @ Los Angeles  - For whatever, the reason the Rams had played the Seahawks close recently and the Seahawks did struggle a bit against the Dolphins.  That being said, Case Keenum has looked terrible and it's unclear what homefield advantage the Rams will have.  

Philadelphia @ Chicago (-3) - After taking an early 10-7 lead against Minnesota last week, Chicago struggled against a strong Minnesota defense.  Chicago needs to come away with a win if they want to remain in the playoff pictures.

Week 2 Thursday Night Pick

Fitzpatrick struggled against the Bengals

Can he put it together against the Bills?

NY Jets @ Buffalo (-1) - The New York Jets look to rebound after a tough loss to the Bengals in their opener.  The Bills lost a low scoring affair against the Ravens.  Given the short week, the Bills should be favored at home plus Ryan Fitzpatrick is 1-8 against Rex Ryan's defenses.  

2016 Week 1 Picks Against the Spread

Todd Gurley looks to run over 

the 49ers on Monday Night

Tampa Bay @ Atlanta (-2.5) - Jameis Winston had a strong rookie year and will try to build on it.  Matt Ryan attempts to rebound with a healthy Julio Jones and Devonta Freeman.

Minnesota @ Tennessee (+2.5) - Adrian Peterson always scares run defenses and Stefon Diggs is an intriguing prospect at wide receiver; the problem of course is that Minnesota does have a questionable passing attack with Shaun Hill at least until Sam Bradford can get acclimated into the offense.  Tennessee bolsters its running game with Chris Ivory

Cleveland @ Philadelphia (-3.5) - RG3 did manage to eliminate the Philadelphia Eagles from the playoffs the last time he played at the Linc, but it might be too much to come away with a victory again even against a Philadelphia team that could start Chase Daniels at quarterback.

Cincinnati(-1.5) @ NY Jets- The Bengals appear to have the advantage at the quarterback with Andy Dalton in the battle of two high quality defenses.  The Bengals youth at running back including Jeremy Hill, Bernard, and AJ Green may be slightly better than the Jets older stars in Marshall and Forte.

Oakland @ New Orleans (-2) - It's hard what to make of the Saints, especially with a disappointing season.  That being said, Drew Brees can still make the Saint become a high octane offense especially at home.  

San Diego (+6.5) @ Kansas City- While the Chiefs feature a strong defense and a coach in Andy Reid that does relatively well on opening day, the Chargers are division rivals and could play the Chiefs close especially if Rivers can repeat his strong play from last season

Buffalo @ Baltimore (-3) - It is hard what to make of the Ravens after a bad season.  Buffalo is hoping that Tyrod Taylor an create for deep receiving threats like Sammy Watkins and that LeSean McCoy has some left in the tank.  And it will be interesting to see if Steve Smith Sr. has anything left after achilles injury to get back at his former team.  We will see if John Harbaugh can help the Ravens rebound especially with a team that plays better at home.  

Chicago @ Houston (-5)- The battle between two former Bronco quarterbacks.  Brock Osweiler may have learned enough to help the Texans take the next step.  Jay Cutler has been relatively solid although the Bears look to sow up their offensive line and look to find an adequate replacement for Mat Forte in Jeremy Langford.  

Green Bay (-5) @ Jacksonville -  Blake Bortles is an impressive QB with a number of receiving options but Aaron Rodgers also should have a healthy receiving corp including the return of Jordy Nelson.  Randall Cobb should also get more with the additional attention that defenses hae to pay and could also open up the running attack. 

Miami @ Seattle (10.5) - It is unclear how the Dolphins new coaching staff can repel Seattle's homefield advantage.  

NY Giants @ Dallas - Dallas's homefield isn't all that impressive and the Giants should take advantage of the absence of Tony Romo.  Ezekiel Elliot could be an x factor although I like the Giants to amend for last season's opening collapse against Dallas in week 1 of last season.

Detroit @ Indianapolis (-2.5) - Luck appears to have more around him offensively especially with the departure of Calvin Johnson.   

New England @ Arizona (-7)- The losers of the conference championship face off.  The Patriots are without Brady.  While Belicheck may coach New England up, the Cardinals have typically done well against teams they are supposed to beat.  

Pittsburgh @ Washington (+3) -   Washington dodges a bullet given that LeVeon Bell is out with a suspension.  Kirk Cousins will try to do well against what many people consider a .500 plus caliber team, although the Steelers were at best average defensively last season.  The Redskins also hope Matt Jones and Chris Thompson can at least give Washington  a viable running game.  Washington may rely more on their receivers including tight end Jordan Reed.  One thing to watch for is if Jackson and Garcon  can keep up their production from years past.  The Redskins will also look for their young receivers like Josh Doctson and Rashad Ross to step up.   A big key is if Josh Norman can live up to his salary and slow down Antonio Brown.

LA (-2.5) @ San Francisco - Chip Kelly's offense gets set in motion with Blaine Gabbert, Torrey Smith, and Carlos Hyde.  The Rams look to get Todd Gurley going against a 49ers defense that hasn't been the same since Jim Harbaugh left.

NBA Finals Preview and Prediction

The Cavs and Warriors face off again in the NBA Finals

James hopes to be the one smiling this time around

The Golden State Warriors looks to repeat as defending champions while LeBron and the Cavaliers try to end Cleveland's championship drought; Cleveland is the only city with three professional sport franchises that has not won a championship in 52 years. 

Unlike last season, Cleveland enters this series with a healthy Kyrie Irving and Kevin Love. Irving suffered a season ending knee injury during the end of game 1 of the NBA Finals while Love sustained a shoulder injury in game 1 against the Boston Celtics that knocked him out of the postseason. By being healthy, the Cavs are certainly a better offensive team than last season especially from 3 point range which is also bolstered by Channing Frye, Mo Williams, and Richard Jefferson.   Cleveland is actually shooting a higher percentage from 3 than Golden State this postseason  (44% to 40%) although Cleveland's road to the Finals has been significantly easier than Golden State in terms of strength of schedule.  

It will be tough for Cleveland to replicate the success that Oklahoma City had defensively against Golden State.  Kyrie Irving and Kevin Love have been below average defensive players and it will be hard to hide both considering that Golden State's offense often forces switches.   This means that Golden State through screens and off ball action will force Cleveland's lesser defenders to guard Curry and Thompson.  Even Adams and Ibaka, who relatively quick big men, struggled immensely to contain Curry so Cleveland will have its hands full.  

LeBron James wear and tear is showing, and was not a good defensive player during the regular season, although I suspect James will pick up his effort and intensity in the Finals.  Even so, James can only guard one of three of Golden States All Stars.  Matthew Dellevedova will be used at times to guard Curry but now Cleveland will may have to put another strong defender on Klay Thompson as well.  

On the plus side for Cleveland, the Cavaliers should be more rested than the Warriors.  Cleveland has only played 14 games while the Warriors have played 17.  That being said, it should not be a big advantage if any because the Warriors had 2 days rest to prepare for game 1.  If anything, the Cavs could come into game 1 rusty and it may take time for Cleveland to adjust to the Warriors given that the Warriors are already used to playing at a higher level against stronger teams.  

Golden State despite boasting a 73 win team could still be vulnerable for a loss.  Even though Curry has played well over the last few games, consistency is still a concern after coming off a sprained knee.  The Warriors may also not play optimal lineups, especially their death lineup of Curry/Thompson/Barnes/Iguodala/Green and Kerr may be reluctant to play Festus Ezeli over Andrew Bogut unless the Warriors find themselves in a hole.  Also, if Green commits two technical fouls or a flagrant foul, Green could be suspended who is the anchor of the Warriors' defense. 

That being said, the Warriors are still the favorites.  Curry and Thompson are significantly better than they were last year and that's saying something considering Curry was already an MVP and Thompson was an all star last season.  Curry's season in terms of offensive efficiency may be better than any player in NBA history.  Klay Thompson play in the postseason has been great as well- his 41 point performance in game 6 saved the Warriors season.  His play of late has garnered respect of many NBA analysts who say his play is as good or even better than Hall of Famer Reggie Miller, especially since Thompson usually takes on guarding the other teams best player including Westbrook, Harden, and Lillard.

Draymond Green will also look to get on track against the Cavaliers.   Look for Green to get going offensively again against Cleveland who do not boast the same high quality big men as Oklahoma City, although Green will certainly have to prove his worth again when guarding Kevin Love.

And Andre Iguodala who won the finals MVP is still a strong defensive player.  He was very effective in limiting Kevin Durant's offense and he looks again to take on the challenge of guaring LeBron James.  And of course, the Warriors also have strong supporting players including Harrison Barnes, Andrew Bogut, Shaun Livingston, and Festus Ezeli who are all good two way players.  

While many will say this is a battle between Curry and James as the best player in the NBA, it may not be a fair fight for LeBron given that Curry looks to have the superior supporting cast.  True, players like Love and Irving can sustain the same fire power as Golden State at times, but Golden State is by far a superior defensive team.  And even if Cleveland has shown the ability to have a good offense, they struggle more to create good ball movement. I predict that the Warriors will win in 6.  

The Pros and Cons of Hiring Scott Brooks

Brooks has had success with OKC

but many have criticized his offensive plays

After firing Randy Wittman, the Washington Wizards gave out a 5 years $35 million to Scott Brooks, making him the highest paid head coach in the league, tied with Carlisle (among coaches who only get paid for being coaches).

Brooks did manage to get Oklahoma City to the Finals in 2012, which was one of the youngest teams to reach the finals.  However, the Thunder ended up losing to the Miami Heat in 5 games. The series could have gone either way given that OKC ended up losing three games by 6 points or less.  Many blame Brooks for playing Kendrick Perkins too much especially since he played 23.4 minutes per game in the Finals. Ultimately other factors may have come into play.  Harden not shooting well and turning the ball over at a high rate is a bigger reason than any coaching adjustment that Brooks could have made.  And after the Thunder lost point guard Eric Maynor for the season, the Thunder were at times forced to give an aging Derek Fisher crunch time minutes.

Brooks did manage to elevate the Oklahoma City defensively as they played with a lot of energy throughout his tenure.  Several young players developed fairly well under Scottie Brooks including  Kevin Durant, Russell Westbrook, James Harden, and Reggie Jackson.  And Kevin Durant who is a free agent this offseason is a big fan of Scott Brooks  

Still, many have pointed the flaws of Brooks's style of coaching .  Critics point to the the Thunder's offense for relying too much on isolation play by all star play and as a result were not as efficient offensively as some other teams who had less talent.  Brooks' offense has been unimaginative or unable to curb players from taking bad shots. He also continued to give Kendrick Perkins consistent minutes even though he was viewed as one of the worst players in the NBA.   Ultimately, OKC felt their best chance or winning a title this season was moving on from Brooks and hiring Florida Coach and 2 time NCAA winner Billy Donovan.  

At best, the Wizards' hiring process was questionable.  Apparently, the Wizards did not interview any other candidates other than Brooks.  If the hire was only about getting Kevin Durant, the Wizards could have hired Brooks last season since he was available.  

Many will point out that the development of players is not the primary problem but rather the selection of players.  Sam Presti, the GM of the Oklohama City Thunder, has certianly selected more talented players than Ernie Grunfeld.   

That being said, the Wizards have a few guys who could play into their potential.  John Wall is an all star caliber player but has not improved that much statistically over the last few season.   Brooks could also get a better effort out of Wall on the defensive end.   Bradley Beal has failed to make the jump; some have blamed Randy Wittman while others point out that Beal is an injury prone player. While Otto Porter has improved significantly and played like a top 10 small forward in the 2nd half of the season, but still has a long way to go being considered among the elite at that position.  Rookie Kelly Oubre rarely saw minutes when the Wizards were at full strength and perhaps Brooks would be willing to give Oubre more of a chance to play in the Wizards rotation. 

Ultimately, this hire could work out for the Wizards but for now it w seems like an unimaginative hire similar to the one where Ernie Grunfeld hired Flip Saunders.  While Flip Saunders had a very high winning percentage with the Pistons, Saunders ultimately failed as a Wizards head coach because of the lack of talent on the roster.  If Brooks significantly increases the Wizards chances of getting Durant, then it could work out.  But as it stands now, the Thunder are one of the top teams in the league whereas the Wizards could not even make the playoffs.  If it is for basketball reasons, it is hard to see Durant leaving.  The Wizards better hope that Durant wants to be around in DC to watch the Washington Redskins.

Villanova vs North Carolina Preview

Villanova looks to win its first national championship since 1985

while North Carolina looks to win its 3rd title in 11 years

Tonight, the NCAA championship will be decided between North Carolina Tar Heels and the Villanova Wildcats.  Both teams spent portions of the season ranked number one.  North Carolina comes into the game as a favorite by by the public and many commentators. The Tar Heels come from perhaps the best conference; the ACC had 6 teams make it to the Sweet 16 and 2 teams makes it to the final 4.  Roy Williams looks to win his 3rd title at UNC and improve his 2-2 finals record.

Villanova remains a holdover from the Big East, who will try to be 6th team from the Big East to win a national title since 2003.  While Villanova has not won a national championship under Coach Jay Wright, they have come pretty close given that they have lost to 5 times teams that have ultimately gone on to win the National Championship since 2005.  (North Carolina twice, UConn, Kansas, Florida).  Still, the resolve of this Villanova team is rather strong as they have been able to advance farther than most experts had predicted.  

This will be the third time since 2005 that Villanova has faced UNC in the tournament.  While UNC knocked off fairly easily in 2009, the Wildcats suffered a defeat that many view at the hands of the officials in 2005.  

Villanova looks as if it has the resolve to finally get a national championship but it will be tough .  Brice Johnson and Marcus Page have proven to be more than capable and UNC on paper has more size, meaning they could dominate the boards.  Still, Villanova may have the advantage overall in terms of guard and perimeter play which has been the direction that basketball is going especially in the professional ranks with Golden State.  Villanova certainly has capable shooters including Ryan Arcidiacono, Kris Jenkins, Josh Hart, and Jalen Brunson.  Like North Carolina, Villanova has really good bench players including Phil Booth and Mikal Bridges.  Villanova will need a combination of high octane offense and great defense to win it.  

Super Bowl Pick

Carolina (-5) vs Denver

Carolina has come a long way since training camp

where Cam Newton fought his teammate Greg Norman

No matter what happens in this game, the last 8 Super Bowls will have been won by 8 different teams.  Five years ago, the Carolina Panthers and Denver Broncos had the top 2 picks in the NFL draft.  Carolina dominated as they forced the Cardinals into seven turnovers. Denver's win was impressive given that they were an underdog as they constantly pressured Tom Brady into bad throws and a playoff exit

Peyton Manning is the only QB to take multiple teams to the Super Bowl multiple times

— ESPN Stats & Info (@ESPNStatsInfo) January 25, 2016

Will Peyton Manning get his second Super Bowl win or will 

this be a repeat of what happened against Seattle 2 years ago?

The Broncos have a much better defense than the last time they were in the Super Bowl.   That being said, Cam Newton appears to be playing on a different level than Peyton Manning, not only being able to complete deep throws but also create runs on the ground.   Denver's defense may have more difficulty containing the Panthers as the Panthers appear to have more talent than the Patriots, especially at running back.  Newton's versatility has also helped open up the offense for Jonathan Stewart, who carved up Arizona's stingy defense in the NFC Championship.   Carolina's defense has done well beating up on good offensive teams including the Arizona and Seattle. Carolina may need to play with the same kind of dominance against a motivated Manning who could be playing his last game in his career. 

Last week: 1-1
Playoffs: 6-3-1

This season: 134-104-8