NBA Finals Preview and Prediction

The Cavs and Warriors face off again in the NBA Finals

James hopes to be the one smiling this time around

The Golden State Warriors looks to repeat as defending champions while LeBron and the Cavaliers try to end Cleveland's championship drought; Cleveland is the only city with three professional sport franchises that has not won a championship in 52 years. 

Unlike last season, Cleveland enters this series with a healthy Kyrie Irving and Kevin Love. Irving suffered a season ending knee injury during the end of game 1 of the NBA Finals while Love sustained a shoulder injury in game 1 against the Boston Celtics that knocked him out of the postseason. By being healthy, the Cavs are certainly a better offensive team than last season especially from 3 point range which is also bolstered by Channing Frye, Mo Williams, and Richard Jefferson.   Cleveland is actually shooting a higher percentage from 3 than Golden State this postseason  (44% to 40%) although Cleveland's road to the Finals has been significantly easier than Golden State in terms of strength of schedule.  

It will be tough for Cleveland to replicate the success that Oklahoma City had defensively against Golden State.  Kyrie Irving and Kevin Love have been below average defensive players and it will be hard to hide both considering that Golden State's offense often forces switches.   This means that Golden State through screens and off ball action will force Cleveland's lesser defenders to guard Curry and Thompson.  Even Adams and Ibaka, who relatively quick big men, struggled immensely to contain Curry so Cleveland will have its hands full.  

LeBron James wear and tear is showing, and was not a good defensive player during the regular season, although I suspect James will pick up his effort and intensity in the Finals.  Even so, James can only guard one of three of Golden States All Stars.  Matthew Dellevedova will be used at times to guard Curry but now Cleveland will may have to put another strong defender on Klay Thompson as well.  

On the plus side for Cleveland, the Cavaliers should be more rested than the Warriors.  Cleveland has only played 14 games while the Warriors have played 17.  That being said, it should not be a big advantage if any because the Warriors had 2 days rest to prepare for game 1.  If anything, the Cavs could come into game 1 rusty and it may take time for Cleveland to adjust to the Warriors given that the Warriors are already used to playing at a higher level against stronger teams.  

Golden State despite boasting a 73 win team could still be vulnerable for a loss.  Even though Curry has played well over the last few games, consistency is still a concern after coming off a sprained knee.  The Warriors may also not play optimal lineups, especially their death lineup of Curry/Thompson/Barnes/Iguodala/Green and Kerr may be reluctant to play Festus Ezeli over Andrew Bogut unless the Warriors find themselves in a hole.  Also, if Green commits two technical fouls or a flagrant foul, Green could be suspended who is the anchor of the Warriors' defense. 

That being said, the Warriors are still the favorites.  Curry and Thompson are significantly better than they were last year and that's saying something considering Curry was already an MVP and Thompson was an all star last season.  Curry's season in terms of offensive efficiency may be better than any player in NBA history.  Klay Thompson play in the postseason has been great as well- his 41 point performance in game 6 saved the Warriors season.  His play of late has garnered respect of many NBA analysts who say his play is as good or even better than Hall of Famer Reggie Miller, especially since Thompson usually takes on guarding the other teams best player including Westbrook, Harden, and Lillard.

Draymond Green will also look to get on track against the Cavaliers.   Look for Green to get going offensively again against Cleveland who do not boast the same high quality big men as Oklahoma City, although Green will certainly have to prove his worth again when guarding Kevin Love.

And Andre Iguodala who won the finals MVP is still a strong defensive player.  He was very effective in limiting Kevin Durant's offense and he looks again to take on the challenge of guaring LeBron James.  And of course, the Warriors also have strong supporting players including Harrison Barnes, Andrew Bogut, Shaun Livingston, and Festus Ezeli who are all good two way players.  

While many will say this is a battle between Curry and James as the best player in the NBA, it may not be a fair fight for LeBron given that Curry looks to have the superior supporting cast.  True, players like Love and Irving can sustain the same fire power as Golden State at times, but Golden State is by far a superior defensive team.  And even if Cleveland has shown the ability to have a good offense, they struggle more to create good ball movement. I predict that the Warriors will win in 6.