2023 Week 8 NFL Picks

According to NFL.com, Derrick Henry or Montez Sweat are among the 

big names garnering interest before Tuesday's NFL Trade Deadline

Washington Commanders @ Philadelphia Eagles (-6.5) -  The Eagles keeep on converting the 4th down and short plays and AJ Brown continues to prove that he's an elite receiver when there is double coverage.  

New York Jets @ New York Giants(+2.5) - This should be a good batlte of defense where both theams boast good running backs.   

Jacksonville Jaguars @ Pittsburgh Steelers (+2.5)  - Pittsburgh keeps games close but the Jaguars are also on a roll so I expect this game to come down to the wire.

Los Angeles Rams (+6.5) @ Dallas Cowboys  - Dallas's secondary could be tested although they did play well last week.  The Rams are looking to perhaps make up for a closely contested game against the Steelers.   

Minnesota Vikings (-1)(LOCK) @ Green Bay Packers -  The Vikings didn't seem to miss Jefferson as Addison filled in the void.  Jordan Love got another win although let's see if he can build consecutive back to back good games in a row. 

Atlanta Falcons (+2.5) @ Tennessee Titans  - Derrick Henry is on the trade block.  The Falcons may have more talent although Arthur Smith may not be as good of a coach Mike Vrabel.  

New England Patriots (+9.5) @ Miami Dolphins  - The Dolphins looked sloppy against the Eagles while the Patriots managed to beat the Bills.  Still, the Patriots looked outmatched the last time these two teams faced off in New England, and the margin would have been bigger if Jason Sanders had knocked down a couple field goals. 

New Orleans Saints @ Indianapolis Colts (-1) - Derrick Carr may be due for a good game after being a check down king in hiis last game against the Jaguars.  The Colts had a good effort against the Browns- it's hard to make out if they keep up their scoring.

Houston Texans (-3)  @ Carolina Panthers -  CJ Stroud looks to keep it going.  Miles Sanders has been a disappointment this season.  

Cleveland Browns (+3) @ Seattle Seahawks - Cleveland barely beat the Colts although they were dealing with a Deshaun Watson injury.

Cincinnati Bengals (+5.5) @ San Francisco 49ers -   The Bengals have looked somehwat more competent and perhaps Burrow is healthy enough to keep the game close.  Still, Chrisitan McCaffrey has been very dynamic.

Kansas Chiefs @ Denver Broncos (+8) -  The Chiefs typically take care of business against the Broncos and while the Broncos won, it is hard to see them pulling off an upset.

Baltimore Ravens @ Arizona Cardinals (+8.5) - The Ravens got it together against the Lions.  Now they can't take a soft opponent for granted against a Cardinals team that has outperformed expectations versus the spread.

Chicago Bears (+8.5) @ Los Angeles Chargers - This feels like a game where the Chargers get to play a lesser opponent and finally walk out with a win although there will be plenty of Bears fans in the stadium.  

Las Vegas Raiders @ Detroit Lions (-8.5)(LOCK) - The Lions looked terrible against the Ravens although I think they will respond accordingly against a Raiders team that looks off without Jimmy G.  

Week 8 Against the Spread - 0-1

Week 8 Straight up – 1-0

2023 Against the Spread - 43-49

2023 Locks - 9-9

2023 Straight Up - 70-35

2023 Week 7 NFL Picks

 McDaniels demonstrate his ability to call Time Outs

TIMEOUT!

The Mike’d Up drops tomorrow 👀 pic.twitter.com/dwwuSHJ1rA

— Miami Dolphins (@MiamiDolphins) October 16, 2023

Atlanta Falcons @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-2.5)  – Neither team is playing that well.  Ridder could have gotten the Falcons a win must was too turnover prone.  The Bucs have not been shartp either although they will get Mike Evans back into the lineup who is dealing with a hamstring injury.  Chris Godwin has averaged 6 receptions and 96 yards in his career against the Falcons.  

Las Vegas Raiders @ Chicago Bears (+3) – Neither team inspires much confidence.   The Raiders at least have a healthy running back.  While Justin Fields looked good against the Commanders, he was not able to keep it up against the Vikings.

Cleveland Browns (-2.5) (LOCK) @ Indianapolis Colts – The Browns defense has been stellar and goes against a Colts team that will be without its start QB Anthony Richardson for the remainder of the season while DeShaun Watson returns for the first time in a month.  

Washington Commanders (-1.5) @ New York Giants- The Commanders will try to keep their momentum against the Giants who will be playing without Daniel Jones but will start Tyrod Taylor.  The Giants don’t have many receivers that burn defense although Washington’s pass defense must not play down to the level of its competition like it did against the Bears or guys like Wan'dale Moore could get more involved in the passing game.  

Detroit Lions (+3) @ Baltimore Ravens – The Lions have been playing well although perhaps the Ravens can do enough to force Jared Goff into some mistakes.

Buffalo Bills @ New England Patriots (+8.5) -  Mac Jones has looked bad and the Bills do have a propensity to play down to their competition like they did against the Giants and the Jets.  

 

Seattle Seahawks @ Arizona Cardinals (+7.5)  –  Perhaps the Cardinal can continue their trend of covering the spread coming off a bye.

Pittsburgh Steelers (+3)  @ Los Angeles Rams- This is another game where the Steelers fans will outnumber the LA Fans.  The Rams running back situation is also a mess with Kyren Williams out.   

Los Angeles Chargers @ Kansas Chiefs (-5.5) – The Chargers played a competitive game against the Cowboys although they appear to be missing Mike Williams. The Chiefs running game has appeared to have found magic with Pacheco.

Green Bay Packers (-1) @ Denver Broncos – The Packers have not looked great after Jordan Love lead a comeback win against the Saints who was playing without Derrick Carr in critical stretches of the game. The Broncos though seeme to be playing in quicksand.

Miami Dolphins @ Philadelphia Eagles (-2) -  The Dolphins look like a great team although the Eagles may rebound after a bad loss against the Jets.  Still, the Eagles secondary hasn’t looked great. 

 

San Francisco 49ers (-6.5)(LOCK) @ Minnesota Vikings-  According to Adam Schefter, all signs point to Christian McCaffrey playing.  

 

Week 7 Against the Spread - 1-0

Week 7 Straight up – 1-0

Week  Locks - 1-1

2023 Against the Spread - 38-41

2023 Locks - 9-7

2023 Straight Up - 61-31

2023 Week 7 Thursday Night Game

 

According to Ed Werder from ESPN, The Jaguars have never won in the Superdome.  They're 0-3, Trevor Lawrence went 34-2 at Clemson.  Both losses were at the Superdome.

Jacksonville Jaguars (+1) @ New Orleans Saints-   The Jaguars have found their groove by winning their last 3 games in a row after a relatively slow start.  Trevor Lawrence was dealing with a knee injury but should be good to go against a tough defense.  The Saints in the meantime have struggled to find their groove.  Alvin Kamara has been playing well, better than he was season.  And looks like a top 10 running back.  

Week 6 Against the Spread - 9-6

Week 6 Straight up - 12-2

Week 6 Locks - 1-1

2023 Against the Spread - 37-41

2023 Locks - 9-7

2023 Against the Spread - 46-47

2023 Locks - 8-6

2023 Straight Up - 60-31

2023 Week 6 NFL Picks

Mac Jones is now on a short leash according to Ian Rapoport 

Baltimore Ravens (-4)(LOCK) @ Tennessee Titans -  It f eels like the Ravens are an up and down team.  Last week was a down week but they look to put it together against a non-division rival.  Although they could have a let down against the  Titans who do have Derrick Henry.

Carolina Panthers @ Miami Dolphins (-13.5) -  The Dolphins recently acquired Chase Claypool but will be without their rookie running back Archane.  Miles Sanders will this miss this one for the Panthers.  Perhaps the only thing that can put the Panthers in this one is complacency but it looks like the Dolphins should take care of business here.

New Orleans Saints @ Houston Texans (+1.5) - This feels like the Texans should do enough to win the game if Derrick Carr is not himself.  Alvin Kamara has worked himself in by having 22 carries last week.  

Washington Commanders (+2.5) @ Atlanta Falcons-  The Commanders do actually have more rest but are playing on the road.  This game feels like a toss up.   I will go with the Commanders and the points here even if their defense looks shaky, although if Washington can't respond, their head coach Ron Rivera could be in trouble.  

Indianapolis Colts @ Jacksonville Jaguars (-4) -  This is a game where Gardner Minshew returns back to the team that drafted him.   Jonathan Taylor has yet to get get it going since he was awarded his big contract but Zach Moss has looked like the bel cow running back.  Still it seems like the Jaguars have put forward some momentum with some games in London.  

Seattle Seahawks @ Cincinnati Bengals (-3) - Not sure which Bengals team we are getting here and not sure how well Seattle plays on the road.    

Minnesota Vikings @ Chicago Bears(+3) -   It looks like the Vikings will be shorthanded being without Justin Jefferson and Kirk Cousins.   Just feels like the Vikings aren't the same team that can run the ball and play good solid defense.  The Bears have had a few good games in a row and perhaps the forecast of demise of Justin Fields was premature.

San Francisco 49ers (-6)(LOCK) @ Cleveland Browns -  The 49ers have been taking out teams with a stick including the Cowboys.    Could they have a letdown against the Browns who will be without DeShaun Watson.     This time PJ Walker would be the one who would get the start.   The Browns defense could contain the 49ers but the Browns offense is what remains in question.   

New England Patriots @ Las Vegas Raiders (-3) - I don't feel confident that the Raiders will blow out New England with their offense but it may not matter if Mac Jones remains this bad.

Detroit Lions (-3) @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers - Perhaps the Bucs  have a chance to keep it close coming off a bye although the Lions have been running the ball at teams.  

Arizona Cardinals (+7) @ Los Angeles Rams-  Surprisingly the Cardinals have held their own against their opponents although the the Duo of Cooper Kupp and Puka should be enough to propel the Rams .

Philadelphia Eagles @ New York Jets (+7) - With a couple of wins perhaps the Jet's should not be completely written off because they have Zach Wilson.  The Eagles are slightly more competent than the Bills and Chiefs although maybe the Jets can keep this to within a single score if Wilson play well but the Jets have a decimated secondary.

New York Giants @ Buffalo Bills (-14) - Depending on the availability of Saquon Barley- this game could be a snooze fest unless Daniel Jones's backup is a hidden gem.

Dallas Cowboys(-2) @ Los Angeles Chargers-  The Chargers have a better quarterback but the Cowboys have a better defense and usually play better coming off a loss.

Week 6 Against the Spread - 0-1

Week 6 Straight up - 1-0

2023 Against the Spread - 37-42

2023 Locks - 8-6

2023 Straight Up - 49-29

2023 Week 6 Thursday Night Pick

Patrick Mahomes has beaten all 31 NFL Teams before he has lost to the Broncos.

The last time the Broncos beat the Chiefs was September 15, 2015.  

Denver Broncos (+10.5) @ Kanas City Chiefs -  Russell Wilson has struggled much like last season.   Overall, the Broncos have yet to cover this season. While being favored in 3 of the 5 matchups, they only have 1 win on the season.  The Chiefs in the meantime have covered in only 3 of their 5 matchups and have yet to win a game by more than 8 points on the season.  

Still, much of these past results can be thrown out the window given its a Thursday Night Game between division rivals.  For now, I am leaning towards this game being an ugly affair favoring the home team, although given the propensity for the Chiefs to let their opponents hang around a cover would not be unreasonable.  The Chiefs have only beaten the Broncos by an average of 7 points in their last five games.  

Week 5 Against the Spread - 6-8

Week 5 Straight up - 8-6

Week 5 Locks - 2-0

2023 Against the Spread - 37-41

2023 Locks - 8-6

2023 Straight Up - 48-29

2023 Week 5 Thursday Night Pick

According to PFF, Justin Fields has won 5 games in the NFL as a starter. Jameis Winston has been a backup QB since Fields was drafted and has 6 wins over that time.

 Chicago Bears @ Washington Commanders (-5.5) - The last time these two teams played, it was an ugly affair where Carson Wentz managed to edge out the Bears 12-7.  Since then Justin Fields closed out the 2022 season.  The Bears have struggled with an 0-4 start although Field did play better against the Broncos.  

The Commanders have gone to Sam Howell whose up and down play is mainly dictated by Washington's inconsistent line.  This is a game that Washington on paper should take care of although right now Washington has yet to show a real killer instinct in the games that they have been ahead including games against the Cardinals and the Eagles.  The Bears gave a huge lead so perhaps they are angry but for now Washington appears to be the more talented team and maybe the short week can give Washington the advantage here.  

Week 4 Against the Spread - 5-11

Week 4 Straight up - 11-5

2023 Against the Spread - 31-33

2023 Locks - 4-5

2023 Straight Up - 40-23

2023 NFL Week 5 Picks

Jacksonville Jaguars @ Buffalo Bills (-5)  - The Jaguars playing in London again and have yet to lose although the Bills are playing out of their minds including a blowout win against the Dolphins.  This game could be closer if the Bills have any letdown. Evan Engram needs to remain the Jaguars most consistent player against a good Buffalo defense. 

New Orleans Saints (-1.5) @ New England Patriots - The Patriots look terrible although they could game play effectively against Derrick Carr but it still looks like to bet against Mac Jones until he can prove it.

Tennessee Titans @ Indianapolis Colts (-1) (LOCK)-Derrick Henry came alive and managed to take care of business.  The Colts do get Jonathan Taylor back.   

Baltimore Ravens (-3.5) @ Pittsburgh Steelers - Lamar and company just keep taking care of the division.  Pickett has not been good over the last 4 games. 

Carolina Panthers @ Detroit Lions (-9.5) - Detroit is coming out a longer bye. Armon St. Brown which opens the door against the Panthers.  David Montgomery should have a big game. 

Houston Texans (+2.5) @ Atlanta Falcons - Is Kyle Pitts a bad first round pick already.   Could be a close game given the Texans rush defense is poor although the Texans have better quarterback play. 

New York Giants @ Miami Dolphins (-10.5)- Could be a get right game for the Dolphins after a poor showing.  Daniel Jones needs to pick it up. Darren Waller has a good match-up against the Dolphins defense. 

Cincinnati Bengals @ Arizona Cardinals (+3)  -  These are two similar teams so far this season at least if Burrow is not 100%.  Dobbs may be a quality starter.   

Philadelphia Eagles @ Los Angeles Rams (+5) - This is going to be essentially a home game for the Eagles.  Cooper Kupp returns which could open up this game a bit.  

New Orleans Saints(+1.5) @ New England Patriots - This could be ugly game where both teams average 15 points per game.  

New York Jets @ Denver Broncos (-1.5) - I'm not counting on Zach Wilson having back to back good games. 

Kansas City Chiefs @ Minnesota Vikings (+5.5) - The Chiefs lack of offensive weapons outside of Kelce could hurt them although the Vikings defense could make it entertaining.

Dallas Cowboys @ San Francisco 49ers (-3.5)(LOCK) - This could be a battle of defenses.  The 49ers have had Dak Prescot's.

Green Bay Packers @ Las Vegas Raiders (+2.5) -  Jordan Love hasn't been great the last couple of games as the Packers have not been able to get their running game going.  Aaron Jones could rebound this week. 

Week 5 Against the Spread - 0-1

Week 5 Straight up - 0-1

2023 Against the Spread - 31-34

2023 Locks - 4-5

2023 Straight Up - 40-24

2023 Week 4 NFL Picks

According to Wesley Steinberg, Jets QB Zach Wilson bought ice cream

for every single player and coach in the building.  

However Defensive end Franklin-Myers said he didn't get any ice cream.

Jacksonville Jaguars (-3) @ Atlanta Falcons (London)-  - Jaguars always seem to win in London.  Calvin Ridley goes against his former team.  Trevor Lawrence and the Jaguars have struggled, he has only thrown for 3 touchdowns this season.  

Miami Dolphins (+3)  @ Buffalo Bills - Two teams face off against one another. The Dolphins have taken care of their schedule of opponents although they have not played a especially strong team.  Same can be said for the Bills although they also look sharp after a blow out win against the Commanders.  This could be an electric game provided that Dolphins are able to keep Tua upright as the Bills have pressured the quarterbacks in all of their games.

Minnesota Vikings (-3.5) @ Carolina Panthers - This could be a loser leaves the season kind of game.  Justin Jefferson did suffer cramps.  Mattison finally got it going offensively.  The Vikings defense did let them down but that was against the Chargers. Kirk Cousins is on pace for over 6,000 yards this season.  

Denver Broncos (-3.5) @ Chicago Bears- Both teams are coming off blowout losses.  Justin Fields only threw for 100 yards in a blowout loss.  The Broncos defense has been incredibly disappointing although it looks like they have the opportunity to get their first win of the season.  

Baltimore Ravens (+2.5) @ Cleveland Browns - The Ravens did look sloppy against two NFC South opponents including the Texans and the Colts.  The Browns defense has been much better than either.  Still, human nature may have been the reason the Ravens struggled and could forth a better effort.  

Pittsburgh Steelers (-3)(LOCK) @ Houston Texans - Perhaps the Houston Texans are not all that terrible but the Pittsburgh Steelers might actually be a playoff caliber team as well.  I'm expecting a slight let down for the Texans who is still dealing with offensive line injuries.  

Los Angeles Rams @ Indianapolis Colts(-1.5) - The Rams will play their 2nd game so jet leg shouldn't be a factor.  This could be a high scoring game as Anthony Richardson returns.  

Tampa Buccaneers @ New Orleans Saints (-3.5) - Derek Carr could play if he can overcome a ac joint shoulder sprain.  Otherwise Jameis Winston would get the start gainst his former team.

Washington Commanders @ Philadelphia Eagles (-8.5)(LOCK) - Washington did beat the Eagles last time around but this game feels like a loss until Washington is able to correct its offensive line issues and Howell learns to avoid throwing to linebackers or holding the ball too long.  Howell is on pace for 107 sacks this season.

Cincinnati Bengals (-2.5) @ Tennessee Titans - The Bengals need to follow the Browns formula in stopping the run.  Will Derrick Henry get it going?  Joe Burrow is still working through his calf injury but the Titans' pass defense has been mediocre.  

Las Vegas Raiders @ Los Angeles Chargers (-5.5) - The Chargers are poorly coached but the Raiders look awful, granted their schedule has been pretty hard.  Joshua Palmer could have more value with Mike Williams out.  Austin Ekeler has not been able to cut as well but could end up playing.  

New England Patriots (+7) @ Dallas Cowboys - This seems like a get right game for the Cowboys.  Mac Jones has shown less than the Cardinal's Dobbs.  Zeke Elliot goes against his former team.  

Arizona Cardinals(+14) @ San Francisco 49ers - The Cardinals may not actually be bad but it's a min bye week for the 49erswho will look to take care of business.  Deebo Samuel will play.

Kansas City Chiefs (-12.5) @ New York Jets - It is rumored that Taylor Swift will be at his game as well since it's in New York.  Travis Kelce's friendship bracelet is really paying off

Seattle Seahawks(+1.5) @ New York Giants -  It is questionable whether Saquon Barkley plays.  Metcalf and Lockett will try to continue their good play from the last few weeks.  

Week 4 Against the Spread - 0-1

Week 4 Straight up - 0-1

2023 Against the Spread - 25-24

2023 Locks - 4-3

2023 Straight Up - 30-19