Sunday, September 10, 2023

2023 Week 1 Picks


The Jaguars have lost 5 straight games against the Colts in Indianapolis. The Colts have not won their season opener since 2013.  Barring a tie, one of these streaks will end today.

Cincinnati Bengals (-2.5)
@ Cleveland Browns - Joe Burrow comes into this game banged up with a leg injury so perhaps the Browns can do enough to keep it close provided DeShaun Watson plays better than he did towards the end of last year.

Houston Texans @ Baltimore Ravens (-10) - The new look Texans go against a Ravens team that just gave Lamar Jackson a lot of money.  Still, the Ravens traditionally to play better at home.  This game should get a bit ugly for the Texans although the weather could be a factor in keeping this game high scoring at least for the Ravens.  

Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Minnesota Vikings (-6) -  One should expect the Vikings to win this won although they will be opening up with a new backfield without Dalvin Cook.  Baker Mayfield makes his debut with the Buccaneers although its unclear whether or not his good play from the Rams will carry over.

Carolina Panthers (+3.5) @ Atlanta Falcons - Rookie Bryce Young makes his debut for the Panthers as they plan to give Miles Sanders the opportunity to fill the Christian McCaffrey role.  The Falcons won 3 of their last 4 games at home and did beat the Panthers in an overtime game.  

Arizona Cardinals @ Washington Commanders (-7) - Washington has certainly hyped its quarterback Sam Howell.  The Cardinals meantime start Joshua Dobbs who fills in for Kyler Murray.  Washington will look to take advantage of the Cardinal's weak front 7 by running the ball.  

Jacksonville Jaguars @ Indianapolis Colts (+5) - The Jaguars were a playoff team last season that almost took down the Chiefs although they did get help from a Mahomes injury.   The Colts are going to be without Jonathan Taylor as Richardson makes his debut.  


San Francisco 49ers(-2.5) @ Pittsburgh Steelers-  The 49ers may be facing a bit of jet lag against a Steelers team that closed the season strongly, but the 49ers have slightly more talent  from the QB position and a better defense which could be enough to propel them over the Steelers.

Tennessee Titans (+3) @ New Orleans Saints -  The Saints are looking to revitalize their offense with Derrick Carr under center although the Titans may make this game close if they can run the ball with Derrick Henry.

Las Vegas Raiders @ Denver Broncos (-3.5) -  The Broncos were clearly the worse tam last season but I suspect Sean Payton will coach up the team enough to give them the edge over their division rival.  

Philadelphia Eagles (-4)(LOCK) @ New England Patriots-  The Patriots actually have reasonably high expectations going into the season as their fans think they have a decent chance to win the division.  Still, the Eagles are the defending NFC champions and may have pulled off a win against the Chiefs if not for a great performance by Patrick Mahomes.  Usually the team who loses the Super Bowl has a hangover although it still looks like the Eagles are firing on all cylinders and as of right now Mac Jones appears to be the kind of QB that the Eagles stomped on last year.

Los Angeles Rams @ Seattle Seahawks (-5.5) - Without Cooper Kupp, the Rams will have to rely heavily upon Van Jefferson and Cam Akers.  It looks like Seattle will have the advantage at home although I wouldn't rule out Sean McVay finding a way to keep it close.  

Miami Dolphins (+3) @ Los Angeles Chargers - This is a game that homefield advantage will be at a minimum   The Dolphins may have the advantage offensively here provided Tyreek Hill can get it going and Tua is able to stay healthy.

Green Bay Packers @ Chicago Bears (-1) - This is a rivalry game but anything goes.  Jordan Love makes his first opening day debut.  The Bears could take care of business here although a Green Bay upset is not out of the world imagination given how inconsistent the Bears have been over the years.  

Dallas Cowboys (-3) @ New York Giants - The Giants were a bit disappointing against the Cowboys last season, as they lost both games.  It looks like Waller is good to go tonight, for now just favoring the Cowboys until Daniel Jones can overcome this Cowboys defense.  

Buffalo Bills (-2.5)(LOCK) @ New York Jets - Aaron Rodgers clearly represents an upgrade over what the Jets had over an entirety of last season.  Still, the Bills are the defending division champions and one may be getting value here betting on Buffalo after the Jets received the hard knocks bump.


2023 Against the Spread - 0-1
2023 Straight Up - 1-0

2022 Against the spread - 133-124-7

2022 Straight up - 185-92-1

2021 Against the Spread- 151-127-1

2021 Straight Up- 162-101-1
2021 Locks - 10-5

2020 Against the Spread- 124-140-6
2020 Week Straight Up - 173-97-1
2020 Locks- 24-24-2

2019 Season Against the Spread- 128-113-3
2019 Season Straight Up- 158-103
2019 Locks - 21-19-2
2020 Postseason against the Spread- 8-3
2020 Postseason Straight Up- 7-4


2018 Season against the Spread- 112-107-7
2018 Season Straight Up- 137-86-2
2018 Locks- 21-16-2

2017-18 Against the Spread- 121-125-7
2017-18 Season Straight Up - 167-92

2016-17 Against the Spread - 141-115-7
2016-17 Straight Up - 101-41

2015-16 Against the Spread - 140-110 

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