Thursday, September 28, 2023

Week 3 NFL Thursday Night Pick


Jordan Love help lead a comeback against the Saints 
who were shorthanded without Derek Carr



 Detroit Lions @ Green Bay Packers (+1.5) - The Lions are coming off an impressive win against the Falcons although they have had let downs after wins against the Chiefs.  Jordan Love put together a great second half against the Saints to pull out a win despite throwing several uncatchable passes; only Zach Wilson has thrown more this season.  Aaron Jones and Christian Watson also return.  

Week 3 Against the Spread - 10-6

Week 3 Straight up - 12-4

2023 Against the Spread - 25-23
2023 Locks - 4-3
2023 Straight Up - 17-15

Sunday, September 24, 2023

2023 NFL Week 3 Picks


Through 2 weeks, DeShaun Watson has been 
outplayed by Baker Mayfield


Tennessee Titans @ Cleveland Browns (-3) - Derrick Henry is banged up with a toe injury although he has been better on the road last season.  Jerome Ford faces a tough running defense so Watson needs to get it going against a below average Titans defense.  Tannehill and Hopkins have had trouble scoring this season.  

Atlanta Falcons @ Detroit Lions(-3) - Top rookie selection running backs Bijan Robinson and Gibbs go against each other.  Gibbs could have a bigger game with Montgomery out.  Desmond Ridder gets his passes tipped a lot but only has 1 interception for the year.  

New Orleans Saints @ Green Bay Packers (-2) -  Jordan Love is throwing more TDs than expected although faces a tough test against the Saints defense.  Tony Jones Jr. is likely to get more work in this one for the Saints than Kendre Miller with Jamaal Williams out.

Denver Broncos @ Miami Dolphins (-6.5)  - Jaylen Waddle is out although Tyreek Hill.   the Broncos defense has not looed sharp especially after giving up a big lead against Washington defense.  The Bronco offense still needs to get in sync which could take more time.

Los Angeles Chargers @ Minnesota Vikings (+1) - Two 0-2 teams goes against each other.  Austin Ekeler is out.  The Vikings could have a chance to be number 1 in the division though.  

New England Patriots (-3) @ New York Jets - Battle of the defenses; likely turnovers will decide this game.  Mac Jones looks about as bad as Zach Wilson.  Breece Hall only had 4 carries last week. 

Buffalo Bills @ Washington Commanders (+6.5) - Sam Howell has been pressured a lot which could be a bad matchup.  Washington's defense got into gear more in the 2nd half against the Broncos as Chase Young made his return.  The Bills are likely going to be able to put up points, it will be interesting to see if Washington's offense can keep up.  

Houston Texans (+10) @ Jacksonville Jaguars - The Jaguars did lay a dud against the Chiefs but could be due for a big performance.  Still, the Texans are a division rival who did happen to beat the Jaguars last season in Jacksonville.  

Indianapolis Colts @ Baltimore Ravens (-8)(LOCK) -  Minshew takes the place of Richardson.  Justice Hill is out for the Ravens so Melvin Gordon is activated.  

Carolina Panthers @ Seattle Seahawks (-6) -   Bryce Young out although perhaps the Panthers offense could do better in the short term with Andy Dalton taking over.  Although playing in Seattle could be a struggle.  

Chicago Bears @ Kansas City Chiefs (-12.5) - Justin Fields could have trouble putting it together on the road against the Chiefs.  

Dallas Cowboys (-12.5) @ Arizona Cardinals - Diggs is out which could be troublesome.  Still the Cowboys are a step up from the Giants and Commanders defense which could mean the Cardinals finally get blown out.   

Pittsburg Steelers(+2.5)(LOCK) @ Las Vegas Raiders - Steelers have struggled against running backs so Jacobs could have a good week.  Then again, the Raiders rush defense isn't much better.  The Steelers looked great against the Browns and are looing to carry over that momentum.  

Philadelphia Eagles @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+5.5) - Gainwell comes back to the lineup. the Eagles have yet to blow out an opponent so this game could be relatively close against a 2-0 Bucs team.    

Los Angeles Rams (+2) @ Cincinnati Bengals - This game is a bit confusing if Joe Burrow is out which Ja'Marr Chase seemed to imply earlier this week.  The Rams have been playing well shorthanded and could take the Bengals 0-3 if the Bengals don't have their starting quarterback.  


Week 3 Against the Spread - 1-0

Week 3 Straight up - 1-0

2023 Against the Spread - 16-16
2023 Locks - 3-2
2023 Straight Up - 17-15


2022 Against the spread - 133-124-7

2022 Straight up - 185-92-1

2021 Against the Spread- 151-127-1

2021 Straight Up- 162-101-1
2021 Locks - 10-5

2020 Against the Spread- 124-140-6
2020 Week Straight Up - 173-97-1
2020 Locks- 24-24-2

2019 Season Against the Spread- 128-113-3
2019 Season Straight Up- 158-103
2019 Locks - 21-19-2
2020 Postseason against the Spread- 8-3
2020 Postseason Straight Up- 7-4


2018 Season against the Spread- 112-107-7
2018 Season Straight Up- 137-86-2
2018 Locks- 21-16-2

2017-18 Against the Spread- 121-125-7
2017-18 Season Straight Up - 167-92

2016-17 Against the Spread - 141-115-7
2016-17 Straight Up - 101-41

2015-16 Against the Spread - 140-110 

Thursday, September 21, 2023

2023 Week 3 Thursday Night Pick


The 49ers will be wearing their 1994 jerseys tonight


 New York Giants @ San Francisco 49ers (-10) - The Giants were able to avoid disaster by scoring 31 points against the Cardinals in the 2nd half, which is more than the Las Vegas Raiders have scored all season.   Still, the Giants are going to be without Saquon Barkley and are dealing with a few injuries on the offensive line.   The 49ers didn't manage to cover the spread against a Rams team but they also had a strong 2nd half against a division rival.  Brandon Aiyuk is out which could lead the 49ers more focused on the run.  


Week 2 Against the Spread - 10-6

Week 2 Straight up - 9-7

2023 Against the Spread - 16-16
2023 Locks - 3-2
2023 Straight Up - 17-15


2022 Against the spread - 133-124-7

2022 Straight up - 185-92-1

2021 Against the Spread- 151-127-1

2021 Straight Up- 162-101-1
2021 Locks - 10-5

2020 Against the Spread- 124-140-6
2020 Week Straight Up - 173-97-1
2020 Locks- 24-24-2

2019 Season Against the Spread- 128-113-3
2019 Season Straight Up- 158-103
2019 Locks - 21-19-2
2020 Postseason against the Spread- 8-3
2020 Postseason Straight Up- 7-4


2018 Season against the Spread- 112-107-7
2018 Season Straight Up- 137-86-2
2018 Locks- 21-16-2

2017-18 Against the Spread- 121-125-7
2017-18 Season Straight Up - 167-92

2016-17 Against the Spread - 141-115-7
2016-17 Straight Up - 101-41

2015-16 Against the Spread - 140-110 

Sunday, September 17, 2023

2023 NFL Week 2 Picks


Travis Kelce, who is reportedly hanging out with Taylor Swift,
makes his return back to the lineup this week

Baltimore Ravens (+3.5) @ Cincinnati Bengals  - JK Dobbins is out for the season.  Both Burrow and Lamar Jackson struggled in the opener.  Conklin is out for the Bengals.  Perhaps Burrow can rebound after his injury and weird weather although the Ravens do get Mark Andrews back.

Seattle Seahawks  @ Detroit Lions (-5.5)(Lock) -  Seattle will be missing 2 offensive linemen so they could struggle especially since the Rams wide receivers like Puka dominated them.  

Indianapolis Colts @ Houston Texans (+1.5)  - Battle of rookie QBs including CJ and Richardson, who has shown good mobility.  Both teams were relatively impressive at times in double digit blowouts.  

Chicago Bears @ Tampa Buccaneers (-2.5) - Baker Mayfield and Justin Fields battle out.  The Bucs took out the Vikings last week and appeared to outplay them in the 2nd half.  Perhaps that momentum continues into this game.  

Kansas City Chiefs (-3.5) @ Jacksonville Jaguars - Jacksonville almost upset the Chiefs in the playoffs.  The lack of wide receivers may hurt the Chiefs in this one although they have more time to prepare plus Kelce returns along with their top defensive end Chris Jones.  

Green Bay Packers  (-1.5) @ Atlanta Falcons -  The Falcons have a solid defense but may not be able to keep on the offensive end.  Jordan Love is looking to build momentum - from this game, one can infer if the Bears defense was really bad or if Jordan Love is very good.  Although Aaron Jones and Christian Watson are out.

Las Vegas Raiders @ Buffalo Bills (-9.5) - Buffalo typically takes care of games like this at home.  If they lose the game, sound the alarm.    Josh Jacobs only had 3 receptions last week, it will be interesting to see if Jimmy G targets him with Jacobi Myers out.  

Los Angeles Chargers  @ Tennessee Titans (+3) - Neither team wants to start 0-2.  Ryan Tannehill was awful yet the Titans barely lost to the Saints.   Derrick Henry could have a good game against a not so special Chargers run defense although Tajee Spears had more carries than Henry last week.  Austin Ekeler is out.  

San Francisco 49ers @ Los Angeles Rams (+8.5) - The 49ers look like the class of NFC although perhaps McVay can draw up a game plan to keep it close against a division rival.  

New York Giants @ Arizona Cardinals (+5.5) - Two losing teams that feel different ways about their performance.  The Giants were absolutely wrecked by the Cowboys while the Cardinals managed to lose a close one to the Commanders.  The Cardinals defense was better than I anticipated - although the Cardinals rush defense could have trouble containing Saquon Barkley as Brian Robinson had a good running game.

New York Jets @ Dallas Cowboys (-9) (LOCK) - Zach Wilson against the Cowboys is a scary proposition.

Washington Commanders(+3.5) @ Denver Broncos- Broncos' mascot Thunder is not making his first game since 31 years.  It feels like this could be a very low scoring game.  Howell has to do a better job avoiding sacks if the Commanders want to come away with a win.  

Miami Dolphins @ New England Patriots (+2.5) -  The Patriots didn't look as impressive in their loss to the Eagles although it is a division game and both teams appear to be in similar tier.  

New Orleans Saints(-2.5)(LOCK) @ Carolina Panthers -  The Saints defense looks terrific.  There are still questions about Derek Carr although the Saints receivers looked excellent including Chris Olave and Michael Thomas.  Miles Sanders will get a lot of work but it's unclear if anybody else will step up to the plate.  

Cleveland Browns (-2.5) @ Pittsburgh Steelers - The Browns absolutely manhandled the Bengals last week.  The Steelers should produce a much better effort after getting destroyed by the 49ers but the Browns defense could do enough to slow down the Steelers.

Week 2 Against the Spread - 0-1

Week 2 Straight up - 1-0

2023 Against the Spread - 6-11
2023 Locks - 1-1
2023 Straight Up - 9-8


2022 Against the spread - 133-124-7

2022 Straight up - 185-92-1

2021 Against the Spread- 151-127-1

2021 Straight Up- 162-101-1
2021 Locks - 10-5

2020 Against the Spread- 124-140-6
2020 Week Straight Up - 173-97-1
2020 Locks- 24-24-2

2019 Season Against the Spread- 128-113-3
2019 Season Straight Up- 158-103
2019 Locks - 21-19-2
2020 Postseason against the Spread- 8-3
2020 Postseason Straight Up- 7-4


2018 Season against the Spread- 112-107-7
2018 Season Straight Up- 137-86-2
2018 Locks- 21-16-2

2017-18 Against the Spread- 121-125-7
2017-18 Season Straight Up - 167-92

2016-17 Against the Spread - 141-115-7
2016-17 Straight Up - 101-41

2015-16 Against the Spread - 140-110 

Thursday, September 14, 2023

2023 Week 2 Thursday Night Pick



According to ESPN Stats and Info Vikings WR Justin Jefferson enters Thursday's game vs Philadelphia 25 rec yds short of 5,000 in his career.

If he reaches that mark in this game, he would tie Hall of Famer Lance Alworth for the fewest games needed to reach 5,000 career rec yds (52).
 


Minnesota Vikings @ Philadelphia Eagles (-6.5) -  Minnesota showed signs of good potential with Addison as a promising rookie but somehow the Bucs were able to upset them.  Maybe it will take time for the Vikings to adjust with life without Dalvin Cook as Alexander Mattison was fairly mediocre.  The Eagles in the meantime took care of business against the Vikings last season in a blow out.  After forcing the an interception against Mac Jones early on, the game never felt in doubt even though the Patriots made it close.   Kenneth Gainwell can't play but the Eagles can just use DeAndre Swift and Boston Scott to fill in his absence.  

2023 Against the Spread - 6-10
2023 Straight Up - 8-8

2022 Against the spread - 133-124-7

2022 Straight up - 185-92-1

2021 Against the Spread- 151-127-1

2021 Straight Up- 162-101-1
2021 Locks - 10-5

2020 Against the Spread- 124-140-6
2020 Week Straight Up - 173-97-1
2020 Locks- 24-24-2

2019 Season Against the Spread- 128-113-3
2019 Season Straight Up- 158-103
2019 Locks - 21-19-2
2020 Postseason against the Spread- 8-3
2020 Postseason Straight Up- 7-4


2018 Season against the Spread- 112-107-7
2018 Season Straight Up- 137-86-2
2018 Locks- 21-16-2

2017-18 Against the Spread- 121-125-7
2017-18 Season Straight Up - 167-92

2016-17 Against the Spread - 141-115-7
2016-17 Straight Up - 101-41

2015-16 Against the Spread - 140-110 

Sunday, September 10, 2023

2023 Week 1 Picks


The Jaguars have lost 5 straight games against the Colts in Indianapolis. The Colts have not won their season opener since 2013.  Barring a tie, one of these streaks will end today.

Cincinnati Bengals (-2.5)
@ Cleveland Browns - Joe Burrow comes into this game banged up with a leg injury so perhaps the Browns can do enough to keep it close provided DeShaun Watson plays better than he did towards the end of last year.

Houston Texans @ Baltimore Ravens (-10) - The new look Texans go against a Ravens team that just gave Lamar Jackson a lot of money.  Still, the Ravens traditionally to play better at home.  This game should get a bit ugly for the Texans although the weather could be a factor in keeping this game high scoring at least for the Ravens.  

Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Minnesota Vikings (-6) -  One should expect the Vikings to win this won although they will be opening up with a new backfield without Dalvin Cook.  Baker Mayfield makes his debut with the Buccaneers although its unclear whether or not his good play from the Rams will carry over.

Carolina Panthers (+3.5) @ Atlanta Falcons - Rookie Bryce Young makes his debut for the Panthers as they plan to give Miles Sanders the opportunity to fill the Christian McCaffrey role.  The Falcons won 3 of their last 4 games at home and did beat the Panthers in an overtime game.  

Arizona Cardinals @ Washington Commanders (-7) - Washington has certainly hyped its quarterback Sam Howell.  The Cardinals meantime start Joshua Dobbs who fills in for Kyler Murray.  Washington will look to take advantage of the Cardinal's weak front 7 by running the ball.  

Jacksonville Jaguars @ Indianapolis Colts (+5) - The Jaguars were a playoff team last season that almost took down the Chiefs although they did get help from a Mahomes injury.   The Colts are going to be without Jonathan Taylor as Richardson makes his debut.  


San Francisco 49ers(-2.5) @ Pittsburgh Steelers-  The 49ers may be facing a bit of jet lag against a Steelers team that closed the season strongly, but the 49ers have slightly more talent  from the QB position and a better defense which could be enough to propel them over the Steelers.

Tennessee Titans (+3) @ New Orleans Saints -  The Saints are looking to revitalize their offense with Derrick Carr under center although the Titans may make this game close if they can run the ball with Derrick Henry.

Las Vegas Raiders @ Denver Broncos (-3.5) -  The Broncos were clearly the worse tam last season but I suspect Sean Payton will coach up the team enough to give them the edge over their division rival.  

Philadelphia Eagles (-4)(LOCK) @ New England Patriots-  The Patriots actually have reasonably high expectations going into the season as their fans think they have a decent chance to win the division.  Still, the Eagles are the defending NFC champions and may have pulled off a win against the Chiefs if not for a great performance by Patrick Mahomes.  Usually the team who loses the Super Bowl has a hangover although it still looks like the Eagles are firing on all cylinders and as of right now Mac Jones appears to be the kind of QB that the Eagles stomped on last year.

Los Angeles Rams @ Seattle Seahawks (-5.5) - Without Cooper Kupp, the Rams will have to rely heavily upon Van Jefferson and Cam Akers.  It looks like Seattle will have the advantage at home although I wouldn't rule out Sean McVay finding a way to keep it close.  

Miami Dolphins (+3) @ Los Angeles Chargers - This is a game that homefield advantage will be at a minimum   The Dolphins may have the advantage offensively here provided Tyreek Hill can get it going and Tua is able to stay healthy.

Green Bay Packers @ Chicago Bears (-1) - This is a rivalry game but anything goes.  Jordan Love makes his first opening day debut.  The Bears could take care of business here although a Green Bay upset is not out of the world imagination given how inconsistent the Bears have been over the years.  

Dallas Cowboys (-3) @ New York Giants - The Giants were a bit disappointing against the Cowboys last season, as they lost both games.  It looks like Waller is good to go tonight, for now just favoring the Cowboys until Daniel Jones can overcome this Cowboys defense.  

Buffalo Bills (-2.5)(LOCK) @ New York Jets - Aaron Rodgers clearly represents an upgrade over what the Jets had over an entirety of last season.  Still, the Bills are the defending division champions and one may be getting value here betting on Buffalo after the Jets received the hard knocks bump.


2023 Against the Spread - 0-1
2023 Straight Up - 1-0

2022 Against the spread - 133-124-7

2022 Straight up - 185-92-1

2021 Against the Spread- 151-127-1

2021 Straight Up- 162-101-1
2021 Locks - 10-5

2020 Against the Spread- 124-140-6
2020 Week Straight Up - 173-97-1
2020 Locks- 24-24-2

2019 Season Against the Spread- 128-113-3
2019 Season Straight Up- 158-103
2019 Locks - 21-19-2
2020 Postseason against the Spread- 8-3
2020 Postseason Straight Up- 7-4


2018 Season against the Spread- 112-107-7
2018 Season Straight Up- 137-86-2
2018 Locks- 21-16-2

2017-18 Against the Spread- 121-125-7
2017-18 Season Straight Up - 167-92

2016-17 Against the Spread - 141-115-7
2016-17 Straight Up - 101-41

2015-16 Against the Spread - 140-110 

Thursday, September 7, 2023

2023 Week 1 Thursday Night Preview: Lions @ Chiefs


The #Chiefs plan to put star TE Travis Kelce through a workout this morning to test his injured knee, according to Tom Pelissero



Detroit Lions @ Kansas City Chiefs ( -5) - The NFL season opens up as the defending Super Bowl Champions Chiefs take on the up and coming Detroit Lions.   While the Lions did a good job closing out the season against the Packers, they are still debuting a few weapons like Jahmyr Gibbs who could take some time to acclimate into the Lions offense as a rookie.  Jared Goff at times has struggled on the road, although it will be interesting to see if he can help the Lions compete for a division title.  

While the Chiefs have struggled putting away opponents last season, there's a good chance that they come out motivated and with an edge to put the Lions away on ring night.  I wouldn't call this a lock due to Kelce being questionable with a hyperextended knee, plus defensive end Chris Jones is out who lead the Chiefs in sacks last season, but perhaps new weapons like rookie Rashee Rice will emerge.


2022 Against the spread - 133-124-7

2022 Straight up - 185-92-1

2021 Against the Spread- 151-127-1

2021 Straight Up- 162-101-1
2021 Locks - 10-5

2020 Against the Spread- 124-140-6
2020 Week Straight Up - 173-97-1
2020 Locks- 24-24-2

2019 Season Against the Spread- 128-113-3
2019 Season Straight Up- 158-103
2019 Locks - 21-19-2
2020 Postseason against the Spread- 8-3
2020 Postseason Straight Up- 7-4


2018 Season against the Spread- 112-107-7
2018 Season Straight Up- 137-86-2
2018 Locks- 21-16-2

2017-18 Against the Spread- 121-125-7
2017-18 Season Straight Up - 167-92

2016-17 Against the Spread - 141-115-7
2016-17 Straight Up - 101-41

2015-16 Against the Spread - 140-110