Thursday, November 28, 2019

Week 13 Thanksgiving NFL Picks








Chicago Bears (-3.5) (Lock) @ Detroit Lions - The Bears look to put together back to back wins for the second time this season. Lions go to their 3rd string quarterback David Blough and could struggle against a Bears team that beat them earlier this season 20-13. The Bears defense has been susceptible against the run but so have the Lions and look for Bears' running back David Montgomery to take advantage.

Buffalo Bills (+7.5) @ Dallas Cowboys - The Cowboys play much better at home, but the Bills have been much better lately. Cole Beasley has an opportunity to get revenge against the Cowboys, his former team.  The Cowboys are 1-2 against teams from the AFC East so far this season.  



New Orlean Saints (-6.5)  @ Atlanta Falcons - The Saints a few weeks ago were unable to take advantage of the Falcons coming off a bye.  That being said, Alvin Kamara looks to be closer to 100%.  Julio Jones is also banged up and the Saints get Marcus Lattimore back in the lineup.

Week 12 Picks Against the Spread- 5-8
Week 12 Straight Up- 6-7 
Week 12 Locks - 0-2

2019 Season Against the Spread- 85-85
2019 Season Straight Up- 98-70
2019 Locks - 11-11

2018 Season against the Spread- 112-107-7
2018 Season Straight Up- 137-86-2
2018 Locks- 21-16-2

2017-18 Against the Spread- 121-125-7
2017-18 Season Straight Up - 167-92

2016-17 Against the Spread - 141-115-7
2016-17 Straight Up - 101-41

2015-16 Against the Spread - 140-110 
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Sunday, November 24, 2019

Week 12 NFL Picks


Haskins threw for 2 touchdowns last week
Unfortunately both occurred in garbage time

Italicized for win
Bolded for spread

Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Atlanta Falcons (-4) - The Falcons defense has picked up momentum recently although both teams with should feature a passing games with great receiving targets including Julio Jones and Calvin Ridley, the Falcons receivers out of Alabama and Mike Evans and Chris Godwin for the Buccaneers.

Miami Dolphins  @ Cleveland Browns (-11)  - The Browns have extra time to prepare for this one despite being without Myles Garrett.  The Browns seem like a more impressive team with Kareem Hunt in the offense.  Landry has been seeing the majority of Baker Mayfield's targets, not Odell Beckham Jr. 


New York Giants @ Chicago Bears (-6) -   It will be interesting to see what Daniel Jones does against Daniel Jones can do against the Bears in a low scoring game.  Saquon Barkley looks to exceed his 1 yard rushing total from last week. 

Carolina Panthers @ New Orleans Saints (-9.5) LOCK- DJ moore has been seeing a particularly large role in the Panthers offense over the last few weeks.  Alvin Kamara should get on track against the Carolina Panthers whose defense isn't great but did slow down Falcons running back Brian Hill last week.  Michael Thomas has a 91% completion from his targets and is on pace to break Marvin Harrison's record for most targets in a season. 



Oakland Raiders (-3.5) @ New York Jets - New York Jets did take care of the Redskins and Giants but appear to be due for a letdown against the Raiders who have twice as many wins as the Redskins and Giants combined.

Denver Broncos @ Buffalo Bills (-4) - Josh Allen had a breakout game last week targeting Josh Brown for a multi touchdown game.  Cortland Sutton looks to remain the primary receiver for Brandon Allen but their shaky closing to the Vikings game.  Although the Broncos do have a good running game that could keep the Bills defense honest. 



Detroit Lions (-3.5)(LOCK) @ Washington Redskins - Dwayne Haskins threw for two TDs but in garbage time.  Driscoll looks to continue to replicate Stafford's play from the quarterback position.


Pittsburgh Steelers @ Cincinnati Bengals (+6.5) - Jaylen Samuels should carry a lot snaps without James Conner in the lineup.  Perhaps the Bengals can do enough to keep it close espeicially if Mixon continues his good play over the last two weeks where he has accumulated over 200 rushing yards and 50 receiving yards.

Seattle Seahawks @ Philadelphia Eagles (-1) - Alshon Jeffrey looks like he is going to play.  Jay Ajayi looks to fill the void with Jordan Howard.  Hollister to see a big role in this one for the Seahawks. 

Jacksonville Jaguars (+3.5) @ Tennessee Titans - This could be a close game between two divisiont rivals.  I am expecting Nick Foles could bounce back especially if Fournette gets a bigger game on the run.



Dallas Cowboy (-6.5) @ New England Patriots - Tom Brady has thrown for as many TDs as Julian Edelman as the last 3 weeks.  Dak Prescott has been one of the more explosive quarterbacks and goes against one of the top defenses.   

Green Bay Packers (+3.5) @ San Francisco 49ers - Jimmy Garropolo has been solid for the 49ers targeting Deebo Samuels more recently. Aaron Rodgers is the number one rated quarterback when targeting running backs and maybe Rodgers decides to target Aaron Jones more coming off a bye. 

Baltimore Ravens (-3)  @ Los Angeles Rams - The Ravens appear to have an advantage with their three tight end offensed led by the mobile Lamar Jackson.  While the Rams defense should provide a good test, their offense remains too inconsistent to be counted on in recent weeks.

Week 12 Picks Against the Spread- 0-1
Week 12 Straight Up- 1-0  


2019 Season Against the Spread- 80-78
2019 Season Straight Up- 93-63
2019 Locks - 11-9

2018 Season against the Spread- 112-107-7
2018 Season Straight Up- 137-86-2
2018 Locks- 21-16-2

2017-18 Against the Spread- 121-125-7
2017-18 Season Straight Up - 167-92

2016-17 Against the Spread - 141-115-7
2016-17 Straight Up - 101-41

2015-16 Against the Spread - 140-110 


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Thursday, November 21, 2019

Week 12 Thursday Night Preview

TY Hilton is expected to play coming off a calf injury

Indianapolis Colts @ Houston Texans (-3.5) -

This is a divisional matchup that would suggest that it would be a close game.  Plus the Texans defense did struggle immensely against the Ravens.  However, these games favor the home team and DeShaun Watson typically plays well after a bad game.

Week 11 Picks Against the Spread- 10-4
Week 11 Straight Up-  11-3
Week 11 Locks - 2-1

2019 Season Against the Spread- 80-77
2019 Season Straight Up- 92-63
2019 Locks - 11-9

2018 Season against the Spread- 112-107-7
2018 Season Straight Up- 137-86-2
2018 Locks- 21-16-2

2017-18 Against the Spread- 121-125-7
2017-18 Season Straight Up - 167-92

2016-17 Against the Spread - 141-115-7
2016-17 Straight Up - 101-41

2015-16 Against the Spread - 140-110 
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Sunday, November 17, 2019

Week 11 Picks

Lamar Jackson and DeShaun Watson faceoff for off
for the first time since their 2016 Louisville-Clemson showdown

Dallas Cowboys (-3)(LOCK) @ Detroit Lions - Stafford looks like he is going to miss his second straight game.  While the Cowboys are still inconsistent, they may be desperate to come away with a win after a loss to the Vikings.

Jacksonville Jaguars (+2.5) @ Indianapolis Colts  - Jacoby Brissett is coming back from an injury from last week while Nick Foles returns from an injury from week one.  The Colts are not going to be as explosive without wideout T.Y. Hilton.

Denver Broncos (+10.5) @ Minnesota Vikings - The Broncos defense under Nick Fangio could do enough to keep it close.  The crowd noise with Brandon Allen could be concerning.  Tight End Noah Fant has been seeing a much bigger role in the offense with the departure of Emmanuel Sanders.



Houston Texans (+4.5) @ Baltimore Ravens - This matchup features two of the best young quarterbacks in DeShaun Watson and Lamar Jackson.  The Texans defense appears to be playing well enough without JJ Watt to keep it close.

New York Jets (+1) @ Washington Redskins - This game could be low scoring given the nature of the Redskins running offense which doesn't seem produce touchdowns and continues to run the ball even with large deficits.  The Jets' defense has been pretty bad against the pass recently meaning wide receiver Terry McLaurin could have a big week.  That being said, the Jets with Sam Darnold seemed to have found a rhythm against the Giants

Atlanta Falcons (+5.5) @ Carolina Panthers- The Falcons seem to have a had a resurgence on defense that may lead for them to keep it close.  Still, Austin Hooper, the top tight end for the Falcons is out.  Look for Calvin Ridley to see a bigger role in the offense.


Buffalo Bills (-6.5) @ Miami Dolphins  - Fitzpatrick has been playing well plus the Bills have been struggling on the road.  The Dolphins putting up a 3 game winning streak odds are lower given the poor output of running back Kalen Ballage.

New Orleans Saints (-5.5) @ Tampa Bay Bucaneers - The Saints will be without Lattimore who shut down Mike Evans in week one.  Drew Brees should still have a big week who usually bounces back from poor performances.

Arizona Cardinals(+10.5) @ San Francisco 49ers - The 49ers defense has been legit except so far against Kyler Murray where the Cardinals only loss by 3 points a few weeks ago to the 49ers.

 New England Patriots (-3.5)(LOCK) @ Philadelphia Eagles - The Eagles may have had a good chance to complete the upset but are going to be without Jordan Howard.  The Eagles secondary has been struggling so Julian Edelman and Mohamed Sanu could have good games.

Cincinnati Bengals @ Oakland Raiders (-10.5)LOCK - Look for the Raiders offensive weapons including Derek Carr, Josh Jacobs, and Darren Waller to have big weeks against a hapless Bengals defense.

Chicago Bears @ Los Angeles Rams(-6.5) - Two struggling quarterbacks  go at it.  The Los Angeles Rams injuries have created a bad offensive line situation.  Jared Goff could not find Cooper Kupp for a single pass completion last week.  That being said, the Bears have put together pretty poor efforts plus David Montgomerry could be out.

Kansas Chiefs (-4.5) @ Los Angeles Chargers - The Chiefs look to rebound after a tough loss to the Titans.  The Chargers could take advantage of the Chiefs poor running defense, then again Phillip Rivers looked shaky against the Raiders defense which cold be troublesome if this become a high scoring shootout.


Week 11 Picks Against the Spread- 0-1
Week 11 Straight Up-  0-1

2019 Season Against the Spread- 70-74
2019 Season Straight Up- 81-61
2019 Locks - 9-8

2018 Season against the Spread- 112-107-7
2018 Season Straight Up- 137-86-2
2018 Locks- 21-16-2

2017-18 Against the Spread- 121-125-7
2017-18 Season Straight Up - 167-92

2016-17 Against the Spread - 141-115-7
2016-17 Straight Up - 101-41

2015-16 Against the Spread - 140-110 


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Thursday, November 14, 2019

Week 11 Thursday Night Preview

Pittsburgh Steelers (+2.5) @ Cleveland Browns- Both teams are coming off with good wins.  As an owner of Cooper Kupp in fantasy, I was more impressed with the Steelers ability to completely shut him out, even though they committed two pass interference penalties against him.  The Browns should get a boost with Kareem Hunt in the lineup where he often play in lineups with Nick Chubb in the backfield.  However, Baker Mayfield still has thrown more interceptions (12) than touchdowns (9) and the Steelers defense has been even more stifling than the Bill's defense that Baker faced last week. 

Week 10 Against the Spread- 9-4
Week 10 Straight Up-  5-9
Week 10 Locks - 0-1


2019 Season Against the Spread- 70-73
2019 Season Straight Up- 81-60
2019 Locks - 9-8

2018 Season against the Spread- 112-107-7
2018 Season Straight Up- 137-86-2
2018 Locks- 21-16-2

2017-18 Against the Spread- 121-125-7
2017-18 Season Straight Up - 167-92

2016-17 Against the Spread - 141-115-7
2016-17 Straight Up - 101-41

2015-16 Against the Spread - 140-110 
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Sunday, November 10, 2019

NFL Week 10 Preview

Joe Mixon only has 2 fewer rushing attempts than quarterback 
Lamar Jackson but Jackson has rushed for almost 300 more yards.  
Baltimore Ravens (-10) @ Cincinnati Bengals - The Bengals are coming off a bye and will be starting Ryan Finlay for the first time this season, as the Bengals were already giving up the 2nd most amount of sacks this season. 

Buffalo Bills @ Cleveland Browns(-3) - The Bills defense has been bad at slowing down the run which is the Browns' strength. 

Detroit Lions @ Chicago Bears (-2.5) - With Matthew Stafford's health in question due to a back injury, the Bears may take advantage at home. 

New York Giants(-2.5) @ New York Jets - Neither of these defenses are especially good which opens up the possibility for a back forth between Daniel Jones and Sam Darnold. 

Kansas City Chiefs @ Tennessee Titans (+5.5) - Perhaps the Titans can keep it close in Patrick Mahomes return as the Chiefs are the 30th defense against the run.   Although now defensive tackle Chris Jones is back so they are no longer as terrible.

Arizona Cardinals (+4.5) @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers - The Buccaneers are good at slowing down the run but are bad at slowing down the passing game.  The Cardinals defense is worse even with cornerback Patrick Peterson returning.  Look for this game to be a shootout with David Johnson returning and the Bucs planning to target their top wideouts Mike Evans and Chris Godwin. 

Atlanta Falcons (+11.5) @ New Orleans Saints - The Saints are coming off a bye and look to take of business at home.  With Matt Ryan returning, perhaps the Falcons can keep it close assuming they can avoid turnovers.

Miami Dolphins (+12.5) @ Indianapolis Colts - The Colts are riddled with injuries with Jacoby Brissett out and Brian Hoyer start at quarterback in his place.  The Dolphins in the meantime lost Preston Williams and Mark Walton but could do enough to keep it close with Fitzpatrick. 

LA Rams (-3.5) @ Pittsburgh Steelers - The Rams are coming off a bye plus the Steelers offense remains inconsistent with Mason Rudolph at the helm.  Cooper Kupp could have a big game as the Steelers have been the worst team in covering slot receivers. 

Carolina Panthers @ Green Bay Packers (-5) - The Packers lost badly to the Chargers.  Aaron Rodgers plays much better at home plus Davante Adams could play better than his debut as he regains his health. 

Minnesota Vikings @ Dallas Cowboys (-3)(LOCK) - Kirk Cousins has his work cut out for him with Adam Thielen out against a former division rival.  The Vikings defense has not traveled well and could struggle containing their pass game. 

Seattle Seahawks (+6) @ San Francisco 49ers - In a division rivalry game, the Seahawks could keep it close especially with Russell Wilson running the offense.  That being said, Seattle's defense has been bad slowing down the opposing offense but George Kittle is out. 

Week 10 Against the Spread- 0-1
Week 10 Straight Up- 0-1


2019 Season Against the Spread- 61-70
2019 Season Straight Up- 76-51
2019 Locks - 9-7

2018 Season against the Spread- 112-107-7
2018 Season Straight Up- 137-86-2
2018 Locks- 21-16-2

2017-18 Against the Spread- 121-125-7
2017-18 Season Straight Up - 167-92

2016-17 Against the Spread - 141-115-7
2016-17 Straight Up - 101-41

2015-16 Against the Spread - 140-110 
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Thursday, November 7, 2019

Week 10 Thursday Night Preview

Los Angeles Chargers (-1) @ Oakland Raiders - The Chargers seemed to have righted the ship a bit after changing their offensive coordinator with consecutive wins over the Bears and the Packers.  Gordon had his first game with over 100 yards from scrimmage and tacked on two touchdowns.  While the Raiders are playing at home and coming off a nice win against the Lions, the Chargers defense did a great job in slowing down Aaron Rodgers and look to do the same to the Raiders.

Week 9 Against the Spread- 6-7
Week 9 Straight Up- 9-5
Week 9 Locks- 1-1

2019 Season Against the Spread- 61-69
2019 Season Straight Up- 76-50
2019 Locks - 9-7

2018 Season against the Spread- 112-107-7
2018 Season Straight Up- 137-86-2
2018 Locks- 21-16-2

2017-18 Against the Spread- 121-125-7
2017-18 Season Straight Up - 167-92

2016-17 Against the Spread - 141-115-7
2016-17 Straight Up - 101-41

2015-16 Against the Spread - 140-110 
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Sunday, November 3, 2019

Week 9 Picks



Today will mark the first time in NFL history that two running backs
will face off with each having 13,500 yards.


Italicized for win
Bolded for spread



Houston Texans @ Jacksonville Jaguars (+1.5) (London) - This should be a high scoring game with JJ Watt out of the lineup which should benefit Fournette the most.  The Jaguars will be missing Dede Westbrook but many project wideout Chris Conley to have a big week.

Chicago Bears @ Philadelphia Eagles (-4.5)- Look for the Eagles offense to get reactivated to an elite level with DeSean Jackson back although they will be tested by a Chicago Bears defense that is still pretty good despite some poor showing in recent weeks.

Indianapolis Colts @ Pittsburgh Steelers - With James Conner out, the Steelers will have to rely more upon rookie quarterback Mason Rudolph sprinkled in with the return of running back Jaylen Samuels.  The Colts struggled offensively last week despite pulling off a win and will be without wide receiver T.Y. Hilton.



New York Jets @ Miami Dolphins (+3) - Since surprisingly beating the Cowboys 24-22, the Jets appeared to have gone back to earth with two blowout losses against the Patriots and the Jaguars.  The Dolphins have been semi-feisty in their last 3 weeks in games that they have covered with Fitzpatrick in the lineup.

Minnesota Vikings (-2.5) @ Kansas City Chiefs - The Chiefs will be without Patrick Mahomes again and this time Kirk Cousins comes to town who will try to replicate what Aaron Rodgers did a week ago.  If the Vikings follow the script of giving the ball to Dalvin Cook and deploying deep options like Adam Thielen, they should pull this one off.  That being said, the Vikings defense has not as stingy as it is on the road which opens up the opportunity for Matt Moore to make it competitive.

Tennessee Titans @ Carolina Panthers (-3.5)(LOCK) - The Ryan Tannehill tour continues where he appears to be a competent quarterback.  That being said, the Panthers were embarrassed last week against the 49ers and usually pull off better efforts when they have bad losses like that.



Washington Redskins @ Buffalo Bills (-10.5) - The Redskins move past the trade dealine still unwilling to trade Trent Williams who has refused to play with the team after they failed to diagnose cancerous growths.  In the meantime, Washington is 1-2 since the hiring of Bill Callahan and 2-1 against the spread.  The Redskins formula for keeping it close may take a hit this week with the Redskins moving to start Dwayne Haskins.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+4.5) @ Seattle Seahawks - While Seattle does seem to win, they have had very few decisive blow out victories this season other than a 17 point victory against the Cardinals.  Russell Wilson is still a much more effective game manager than Jameis Winston who leads the league in interceptions with 8 and no other quarterback through five weeks has at least 6 interceptions.

Detroit Lions @ Oakland Raiders (-2.5) -  Matthew Stafford has been playing pretty well so far this season as they have relied more upon the passing game with Kerryon Johnson out of the lineup. The Raiders are a high scoring team with Derek Carr having his full compliment of weapons with Tyrell Williams back in the lineup.

Green Bay Packers (-3.5) @ LA Chargers - The Chargers were bailed out by a last second field goal miss by the Bears to close out the game.  In a game where more Packer fans can show up, look for Aaron Rodgers to continue his winning ways.

Cleveland Browns (-4)(LOCK) @ Denver Broncos - With the Broncos starting Brandon Allen, look for the Broncos to get on track after a fairly tough schedule over the last 5 weeks where they went 0-5.

New England Patriots (-3) @ Baltimore Ravens - Something has to give as Lamar Jackson looks for his third straight game with over 100 yards on the ground while the Patriots have not given up over 100 yards to all the quarterbacks they have faced all season.

Dallas Cowboys @ New York Giants (+7) - The Cowboys have already lost at New York to the Jets this season.  Then again, they dismantled the Giants although this time around Daniel Jones will be in the lineup as well as a few healthy receivers

Week 9 Against the Spread- 0-1
Week 9 Straight Up- 1-0


2019 Season Against the Spread- 55-63
2019 Season Straight Up- 76-50
2019 Locks - 8-6

2018 Season against the Spread- 112-107-7
2018 Season Straight Up- 137-86-2
2018 Locks- 21-16-2

2017-18 Against the Spread- 121-125-7
2017-18 Season Straight Up - 167-92

2016-17 Against the Spread - 141-115-7
2016-17 Straight Up - 101-41

2015-16 Against the Spread - 140-110 
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