Sunday, December 30, 2018

Week 17 Picks

Bolded for spread

Oakland Raiders (-13.5) @ Kansas City Chiefs - The Raiders seem friskier the past few weeks while the Chiefs have not appeared to be as dominant the last few weeks without Kareem Hunt.

New York Jets @ New England Patriots (-13.5)(LOCK) - The Patriots all 5 losses against teams that are not going to playoffs but are still undefeated at home and are playing for a first round bye.

Miami Dolphins @ Buffalo Bills (-4) - Buffalo Bills look to complete series sweep against the Dolphins.

Chicago Bears @ Minnesota Vikings (-4.5) - If the Rams beat the 49ers, the Bears will have nothing to play for



Cleveland Browns (+5.5) @ Baltimore Ravens  - Arguably the Browns biggest game in the past 12 years for Cleveland.  The Ravens will likely win this game in what will determine their playoff fortunes.

Detroit Lions (+8) @ Green Bay Packers - Neither team has not much to play for in this one.  The Lions already beat the Packers earlier this season and it is a rivalry game.


 Carolina Panthers (+7.5) @ New Orleans Saints - Teddy Bridgewater is starting in this one.  Cam Newton is out but Christian McCaffrey could do enough to keep it close.

Jacksonville Jaguars @ Houston Texans (-6.5)(LOCK) - Houston coming off a loss and the Jaguars are coming off a win but look for the opposite to hold true.





Dallas Cowboys (+6) @ New York Giants - The Cowboys have nothing to play for and are resting players.  Without Odell Beckham Jr., this game could still be close.





Philadelphia Eagles(-6.5)(LOCK) @ Washington Redskins - Nick Foles threw for 471 yards 4 touchdowns and 1 interception against a good Texans defense.  Look for the the Eagles to take advantage of a Redskins team that has nothing to play for.  Plus there is a good chance that the stadium is filled with Eagles fans.

Atlanta Falcons @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers - The Falcons are coming off a 2 game winning streak but against 2 of the worst teams in the NFL including the Cardinals and Panthers, who were playing without Cam Newton.  The Bucs have lost 3 straight but against 3 potential playoff teams including the Saints, Ravens, and Cowboys.

Cincinnati Bengals @ Pittsburgh Steelers (-14.5) - No AJ Green, Boyd and Andy Dalton for the Bengals in a must win game for the Steelers.

Arizona Cardinals @ Seattle Seahawks (-13.5) (LOCK) - Seattle is playing for its playoff lives against a really banged up Cardinals team

San Francisco 49ers(+10) @ Los Angeles Rams - The 49ers were a QB run away from extending a drive to pull ahead of the Bears.   Todd Gurley is out.




Los Angeles Chargers (-6.5) @ Denver Broncos - Denver is running on fumes without Lindsay and Sanders and have had bad losses to the Raiders and 49ers in the last few week.

Indianapolis Colts (-3) @ Tennessee Titans - Colts won 38-10 earlier in the season.  While the Titans looked impressive at times against the Redskins, Marcus Mariota is not expected to play.  Andrew Luck is undefeated against the Titans so far in his career.

Week 16 Against the Spread: 7-6-3
Week 16 Straight Up: 11-5
Week 16 Locks: 2-1

2018 Season against the Spread- 102-100-7
2018 Season Straight Up- 126-80-2
2018 Locks- 18-15-2

2017-18 Against the Spread- 221-225-7
2017-18 Season Straight Up - 167-92

2016-17 Against the Spread - 141-115-7
2016-17 Straight Up - 101-41

2015-16 Against the Spread - 140-110  

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Saturday, December 22, 2018

Week 16 Picks

Italicized for win
Bolded for spread

Washington Redskins (+10) @ Tennessee Titans - Josh Johnson won his first start in his career; he was drafted in 2008.  Maybe the Redskins should have gone in on their all Alabama strategy by taking running back Derrick Henry instead of wide receiver Josh Doctson in 2016.  Washington showed signs of life which may have given Redskins fans hope for the playoffs another week but usually fall apart after raising expectations.  Although maybe Washington's defense can do enough to keep it within single digits.





Baltimore Ravens @ Los Angeles Chargers (-4.5)(LOCK) - The Ravens are battling for a playoff spot and the Chargers are battling for a first round bye.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+7) @ Dallas Cowboys - The Cowboys were shut out last week, while the Bucs only have 2 road wins, if they can contain Amari Cooper, they can keep it close.

Minnesota Vikings @ Detroit Lions (+5.5) - Vikings recorded 9 sacks last week against the Dolphins and Dalvin Cook had a nice rushing game.  The Lions have been held under 21 for the last five games but could keep it close at home in a rivalry game.




Atlanta Falcons (-3)(LOCK) @ Carolina Panthers - Cam Newton is out and Taylor Heineke takes over.  The Panthers could become the first team in NFL history to start the season 6-2 and finish 6-10.





Houston Texans @ Philadelphia Eagles(-2) - Nick Foles coming off a nice win against the Rams.  Carson Wentz says he wants to play on his bad back but the Eagles are sitting him out.

New York Giants (+9.5) @ Indianapolis Colts - While the Giants were shutout, the Giants may have had a bad week because of the weather and could play better indoors.

Cincinnati Bengals @ Cleveland Browns(-8.5) - While the Bengals lost by 15 points in the previous matchup, it is a division rivalry game.  Joe Mixon also returns for the Bengals. Cleveland does need to win this game though and could be motivated against Hue Jackson.





Buffalo Bills @ New England Patriots (-12) - Brady is having his worst season since 2009.  That being said, Brady is 26-3 all time against Buffalo and 15-1 at home.  His only loss came where Brady only played in the 1st quarter and sat out in a meaningless game.

Green Bay Packers @ New York Jets  (+3) - Aaron Rodgers is playing in a meaningless game and could also hurt their chance at a better draft pick. 




Jacksonville Jaguars @ Miami Dolphins (-4) - Miami looks to recover after a no show on the road against the Vikings.





Chicago Bears (-4)(LOCK) @ San Francisco 49ers - The 49ers have had a few nice wins in a row against th Broncos and Seahawks.  Look for the Bears' #1 defense to take over which has been setting opposing quarterbacks 30 years which is carried by Khalil Mack who the 49ers tried to trade for.

Los Angeles Rams @ Arizona Cardinals(+14) - With Gurley out, the Rams may not completely trash the Cardinals.

Pittsburgh Steelers (+5.5) @ New Orleans Saints - The Saints appear to be in the driver's seat for a first round bye although the Steeelers may make this one close even with the the departure of Connors.




Kansas City Chiefs  @ Seattle Seahawks (+2.5) - This is certainly more of a toss up game especially since Seattle's 12th man.






Denver Broncos(-3) @ Oakland Raiders - This is a must win game for the Broncos in terms of their reputation as 3 straight losses to the 49ers Browns, and Raiders would probably mean that the Broncos head coach could be on the hot seat for the foreseeable future.

Week 16 Against the Spread: 7-9
Week 16 Straight Up: 9-7
Week 16 Locks: 3-1

2018 Season against the Spread- 95-94-4
2018 Season Straight Up- 115-75-2
2018 Locks- 16-14-2

2017-18 Against the Spread- 221-225-7
2017-18 Season Straight Up - 167-92

2016-17 Against the Spread - 141-115-7
2016-17 Straight Up - 101-41

2015-16 Against the Spread - 140-110  
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Sunday, December 16, 2018

Week 15 Picks

Italicized for win
Bolded for spread

Arizona Cardinals @ Atlanta Falcons (-9) - The Cardinals offensive line is decimated and the Falcons could bounce back in home.  Patrick Peterson vs. Julio Jones should be an interesting matchup

Oakland Raiders (+3.5) @ Cincinnati Bengals - The Raiders are looking a bit feisty after a nice win against the Steeler and the Bengals are reeling without AJ Green. 

Miami Dolphins (+8) @ Minnesota Vikings - The Dolphins appear to be heading in the right direction after a nice win against the Patriots while the Vikings with Cousins in the helm have struggled against team above .500. 

Dallas Cowboys @ Indianapolis Colts (-3)(LOCK) - A must win for the Colts and the Cowboys are a virtual lock to make the playoffs. 

Tampa Buccaneers @ Baltimore Ravens (-7.5) - Ravens are playing pretty well with Lamar Jackson that almost pulled out a win at Kansas City with RG3 and only didn't win due to a poor non-call pass interference. 

Detroit Lions @ Buffalo Bills (-2.5) - Josh Allen could be enough to carry the Bills at home.  Bills has a -52 point differential in the 4th quarter but the cold weather could favor them. 

Green Bay Packers @ Chicago Bears (-4)(LOCK) - Look for the Packers to comeback to earth after a bounce from firing their head coach.  The Bears look to get revenge from their meltdown against the Packers. 

Washington Redskins (+7.5) @ Jacksonville Jaguars - Josh Johnson did look alright in a few drives but overall it is still befuddling why the Redskins didn't work out Colin Kaepernick, whose resume of making the Super Bowl is better than anyone the Redskins tried out including EJ Manuel and Mark Sanchez. 

Tennessee Titans @ New York Giants (-2.5) - The Giants appear to be a solid team even without Odell Beckham while the Titans are heading in the wrong direction.  It is too bad for the Giants that they are only finding their gear in the 2nd half of the season. 

Seattle Seahawks (-3.5)(LOCK) @ San Francisco 49ers - San Francisco lost to Seattle 43-16 two weeks ago.

New England Patriots (+3) @ Pittsburgh Steelers  - For whatever the reason, the Patriots appear to own the Steelers.  James Conner is unlikely to play

Philadelphia Eagles @ Los Angeles Rams (-8) - Eagles defensive backs are decimated without Carson Wentz and have a decimated secondary. 

New Orleans Saints (-6.5) @ Carolina Panthers - Cam Newton appears to banged up and the Saints should take them out to maintain their conference lead.

Week 15 Against the Spread: 2-1
Week 15 Straight Up: 2-1
Week 15 Locks: 1-0

2018 Season against the Spread- 90-86-4
2018 Season Straight Up- 108-69-2
2018 Locks- 14-13-2

2017-18 Against the Spread- 221-225-7
2017-18 Season Straight Up - 167-92

2016-17 Against the Spread - 141-115-7
2016-17 Straight Up - 101-41

2015-16 Against the Spread - 140-110  
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Thursday, December 13, 2018

Week 15 Thursday Night Pick

Italicized for win
Bolded for spread

Los Angeles Chargers @ Kansas City Chiefs (-3.5) - These are two evenly matched teams.  The Chiefs ranks 1st in weighted DVOA (team's efficiency comparing success on every single play) while the Chargers are ranked 2nd.  The Chargers have lost their previous 4 meetings by double digits.  The home team is also 8-3 on a short week.  Tyreek Hill who was questionable for the week is also playing.  Running Melvin Gordon is also ruled out for the Chargers.  Even though the Chiefs are reeling a bit without Kareem Hunt, they have beaten the Chargers by double digits in their last 4 meetings and the short week will probably favor them here. 


Week 14 Against the Spread: 8-8
Week 14 Straight Up: 10-6
Week 14 Locks: 2-2

2018 Season against the Spread- 88-85-4
2018 Season Straight Up- 106-68-2
2018 Locks- 14-13-2

2017-18 Against the Spread- 221-225-7
2017-18 Season Straight Up - 167-92

2016-17 Against the Spread - 141-115-7
2016-17 Straight Up - 101-41

2015-16 Against the Spread - 140-110  

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Saturday, December 8, 2018

Week 14 Picks

The battle for the NFC East 
continues as the Eagles face the Cowboys on the road

Italicized for win
Bolded for spread

Carolina Panthers @ Cleveland Browns (+2) - Browns are a better team at home.  The Panthers are now 1-5 on the road, Cam Newton has played so bad that he looks like he is injured and may need to have surgery this offseason. 



Baltimore Ravens @ Kansas City Chiefs (-6.5)(LOCK) - The Chiefs looked a bit shaky even scoring points but gave up 33 points to the Raiders.  The Ravens are coming off 3 wins against pretty bad NFL teams including Bengals, Raiders, and the Falcons.  While the Raiders certainly could expose the Chiefs a bit defensively and run the ball on them, the Chiefs explosive offense is still tough to be reckoned with but it could be a single score game. The Chiefs are 32nd in rush defense which does open the door for Baltimore but could have a letdown on the road. 

Indianapolis Colts (+5) @ Houston Texans - This is a must win game for the Colts coming off a shutout loss. Texans have allowed less than 16 points in the last 5 weeks.  The last meeting between these two teams went to overtime. 

New England Patriots @ Miami Dolphins (+7.5)  - The New England Patriots dominated the Dolphins the first time around.  Tom Brady has looked mediocre at times in Miami.  Miami's offensive performance was pretty bad last week in which they only had 2 3rd down conversions and 175 yards totals.  The Patriots look to clinch their 10th straight division.  The Patriots are 1-5 in their last 6 road games in December.




New York Giants (-3) @ Washington Redskins - The Giants have the 3rd most 20 yards or greater plays in the last 7 weeks.   The Redskins now have 6 offensive linemen on IR and 2 quarterbacks who apparently shared a hospital room together this past week. 

New Orleans Saints (-8) @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers - Tampa Bay took the Saints by surprise by beating them in week 2 and came away with a surprising win against the Carolina Panthers.  The Saints appear to be licking their wounds after a tough loss to the Dallas Cowboys.   It is still too early to write off the Saints who probably remember how the Bucs beat them after week 1 and get a healthy Traqoun Smith back.

Atlanta Falcons @ Green Bay Packers (-5) - The Packers are coming off their first loss to the Cardinals since 1949 and the Falcons are also struggling with their 3rd consecutive loss to the Baltimore Ravens.  The Packers might get a boost from firing their head coach although their replacement Joe Philbin is known for getting quit on by the Miami Dolphins.

New York Jets @ Buffalo Bills(-3.5)(LOCK) - Rookie Sam Darnold and Josh Allen battle. 

Cincinnati Bengals @ Los Angeles Chargers (-14) - The Bengals appeared to have mailed it in a bit after two straight losses of 14 or more points. AJ Green is out for the season. 

Denver Broncos (-3.5) @ San Francisco 49ers - Phillip Lindsay the undrafted rookie out of Colorado has emerged for the Denver Broncos.  While Emanuel Sanders is out for the Broncos, Breida is out for the 49ers.

Philadelphia Eagles (+3.5) @ Dallas Cowboys - The Cowboys defense looks like it playing at another level while the Eagles appear to have righted the ship against teams they were supposed to beat like the New York Giants and the Washington Redskins. 

Detroit Lions @ Arizona Cardinals (+3) - This is potentially a really close game against two teams eliminated from playoff contention. 

Pittsburgh Steelers @ Oakland Raiders (+10.5) - Pittsburgh gave up a ton of big plays against the Chargers.  The Raiders played the Chiefs pretty close last week.

Los Angeles Rams (-3) @ Chicago Bears - Mitchell Trubisky is cleared to comeback.

Minnesota Vikings @ Seattle Seahawks (-3.5)(LOCK) -The Seahawks have now won 6 straight games.  Kirk Cousins could have trouble for the 2nd straight game on the road.

Week 14 Against the Spread: 0-1
Week 13 Straight Up: 1-0

2018 Season against the Spread- 80-78-4
2018 Season Straight Up- 97-62-2
2018 Locks- 12-11-2

2017-18 Against the Spread- 221-225-7
2017-18 Season Straight Up - 167-92

2016-17 Against the Spread - 141-115-7
2016-17 Straight Up - 101-41

2015-16 Against the Spread - 140-110  

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Thursday, December 6, 2018

Week 14 Thursday Night Game



 Fournette is back from a suspension;
he did not play in the first meeting.
Italicized for win
Bolded for spread

Jacksonville Jaguars(+5.5) @ Tennessee Titans - Hopefully, this matchup is more exciting than the previous matchup where the Titans edged out the Jaguars 9-6.  The Jaguars are coming off a shut out win against the Colts while the Titans also have a short week.   Overall, the Jaguars would have a better chance at keeping it close in a rivalry game.

Week 13 Against the Spread: 7-8
Week 13 Straight Up: 10-5

2018 Season against the Spread- 87-84-4
2018 Season Straight Up- 106-66-2
2018 Locks- 12-11-2

2017-18 Against the Spread- 221-225-7
2017-18 Season Straight Up - 167-92

2016-17 Against the Spread - 141-115-7
2016-17 Straight Up - 101-41

2015-16 Against the Spread - 140-110  
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Sunday, December 2, 2018

Week 13 Picks

Italicized for win
Bolded for spread

Chicago Bears(-4)(LOCK) @ New York Giants - Chase Daniel returns.  The Giants will have trouble scoring as much as they did against the Eagles who were very banged up.  The Bears look to get it going on the ground which the Adams and the Eagles were able to expose the Giants last week in the 2nd round.

Arizona Cardinals (+14) @ Green Bay Packers - While the Cardinals are massive underdogs, the Packers have not always proven to be dominant against NFC West including a 3 point win against the 49ers.

Indianapolis Colts(-4) @ Jacksonville Jaguars - Leonard Fournette is suspended meaning the Jaguars will face an even tougher road against a Colts team that has been playing very well.  The Jaguars also are benching Bortles over Cody Kessler. 

Cleveland Browns (+5.5) @ Houston Texans  - Both teams are winning streaks entering this game.  The Texans are coming off a short week but should be able to pose a more significant challenge than the Falcons or Bengals the prior two weeks.  However, the Browns can do enough to keep it close.

Carolina Panthers (-3.5)(LOCK) @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers - Carolina needs to get it together soon after suffering their 3rd straight loss.  They can do it against the Bucs otherwise their postseason hopes will be diminished greatly. 

Buffalo Bills (+4.5) @ Miami Dolphins -  Both teams are coming off surprising underdog wins.  Tannehill return makes the Dolphins slightly more formidable at home although it could potentially be a lose game if the Bears defense can clamp down on its other Dolphins like it has the past two weeks.  Dolphins are 7-0 Tanehill's last 7 starts. 

Denver Broncos @ Cincinnati Bengals (+5) - The Broncos are the hotter team at the moment with impressive wins over the Chargers.  That being said, if AJ Green returns this could be a touch win for the Broncos although one has to wonder why the Bengals will risk him being injured. 

Baltimore Ravens(+1) @ Atlanta Falcons -  The battle of the birds where both have different flight trajectories.  The Ravens appear to be taking off with Lamar Jackson at the helm. The Falcons can't glide consistently enough with poor showings against the Browns, Cowboys, in the past two weeks.  That being said, the could be a tough out at home although they can't seem to slow down the running attack of the Ravens. 

Los Angeles Rams (-10) @ Detroit Lions - The Lions are not complete walk over although the extra rest coming off a Thursday night game won't help them much against a Rams team coming off a bye and looking to clinch the division.

Kansas City Chiefs(-14.5) @ Oakland Raiders - Kareem Hunt exits and the Chiefs will have to rely upon Spencer Ware who may not be able to fill Kareem Hunts shoes although he did have a big game against the Raiders in his last outing. 

New York Jets @ Tennessee Titans (-7.5) -  The Titans did blow out the Patriots but that seems ages ago after suffering back to back losses against their division rials.  They look to rebound against the Jets who appear to be falling apart.  Jets have lost their lost five games by 86 points which is an average of 17.5 points per game. 

Minnesota Vikings @ New England Patriots (-5) - Can Kirk Cousins really be the franchise savior the Vikings were looking for after a nice win at home against the Packers?  It will be tough against the Patriots on the road. 

San Francisco 49ers @ Seattle Seahawks (-9.5)(LOCK) - Seattle looks to bash the 49ers in at home. 

Los Angeles Chargers @ Pittsburgh Steelers (-3)- Both team suffered bad losses but both look to pick it up the following week.  The Chargers traveling from West to east appear to be at a disadvantage here as well being without Melvin Gordon.

Washington Redskins (+7) @ Philadelphia Eagles - A Monday night game that could decide the division or at least be the final team that competes with the Dallas Cowboys.  The Redskins Monday night woes are well noted although the Eagles haven't been much better lately.  They have already lost to the Cowboys at home.  Chris Thompson returning should give Washington a much needed boost assuming the Eagles don't figure out how to stop a passing attack of the Redskins.  The Redskins are 2-14 in their last 16 games on Monday Night. 

Week 13 Against the Spread: 0-1
Week 13 Straight Up: 0-1

2018 Season against the Spread- 80-77-4
2018 Season Straight Up- 96-62-2
2018 Locks- 11-9-2

2017-18 Against the Spread- 221-225-7
2017-18 Season Straight Up - 167-92

2016-17 Against the Spread - 141-115-7
2016-17 Straight Up - 101-41

2015-16 Against the Spread - 140-110  
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