Italicized for win
- Bolded for spread
NY Jets(+7.5) @ Jacksonville Jaguars - Is the Jets team that beat the Lions all gone? Maybe the Lions were taking a cat nap in a 9-6 loss to the Titans after a big win against the Patriots. The Jets fatigue did seem to contribute to them falling apart in the 2nd half against the Brown. Overall, the Jaguars will probably win if Fournette returns but could struggle a bit like they did against the Titans a few weeks ago, assuming Darnold does not implode.
Miami Dolphins (+7) @ New England Patriots - I think it was a bit concerning that the Dolphins fell behind before finally taking care of business against a sub-par Oakland team. Then again, it is better than falling behind and not coming back at all like New England did against the Lions although to be fair, the Patriots were on the road. If the Patriots lose, then it could spell trouble for them winning the division. I view this as a must win for New England and losing it could significantly reduce their odds of winning the division and making the playoffs. Usually the Patriots come ahead in do or die situations and the Dolphins could have a chance to redeem themselves against the Patriots later on at home this season. That being said, I expect the Dolphins to keep it close.
Philadelphia Eagles (-3) @ Tennessee Titans - Surprisingly the Titans are 2-1. After barely taking care of the Colts at home, the Eagles should be favored to come out a win but could face a tough battle.
Houston @ Indianapolis(-1)(LOCK) - Luck still is not 100% but the Texans have looked sloppy. I think this game could be relatively close if DeShaun Watson shows something. Then again he has not really over the first 3 weeks of the season. I think the Colts have this one considering they are coming off a loss assuming of course the Colts performance against the Redskins represents what they can do on the defensive end.
Buffalo Bills (+10) @ Green Bay Packers - The Packers are 1-2 against the spread, but are 1-0 in weeks after they failed to cover. I wonder if this is a game where the Packers recover nicely all because the weather is not rainy that prevents Randall Cobb from dropping passes and fumbling the ball. That being said, the Bills blew out the Vikings which was the very same team that the Packers managed to tie in week 2. Aaron Rodgers usually is not turnover prone but his mobility is concerning as well as Clay Matthews inabilty to avoid roughing the passer penalties. The Packers are likely to come away with a win, although the Bills could do enough to keep it close if their performance against the Vikings means anything.
Detroit Lions(+3)(LOCK) @ Dallas Cowboys- The Cowboys just lost to a team it was supposed to lose in Seattle who have a great homefield advantage. Elliot fumbling the ball is concerning although one assumes he will bounce back. Cornerback Darrius Slay seems to make the Lions defense elite which at least was the case against the Patriots. The Cowboys lack of receivers and poor offensive line is concerning.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+3) @ Chicago Bears - The Bucs have stated they are undecided at quarterback with Winston coming back but I think they go back and give Fitzpatrick another start especially since he threw for over 400 yards in each of his first 3 starts. Howard gives the bears a reliable running game but its tough to rely on Mitchell Trubisky who is still inconsistent as a second year player.
Cincinatti Bengals @ Atlanta Falcons (-3.5) - The Bengals face another NFC South team who is coming off a loss. Remember the Falcons did take care of business at home against the Panthers who easily dismantled the Bengals the previous week. While the margin may not be as big given the Bengals ability to bounce back, it is concerning that Mixon and AJ Green are banged although both could play. The Falcons defense was too banged up to contain the Saints. Then again I would not put Andy Dalton as a similar QB as Drew Brees.
Seattle Seahawks (-4) @ Arizona Cardinals- Seattle did look pretty frisky against the Cowboys at home. The question of course remains if they can produce on the road. The Cardinals did get a jolt when Josh Rosen was inserted into the game although it ultimately led to a couple empty possessions including an interception to close the game. One has to wonder if Seattle's offense can take over here. The Cardinals' defense has presented problems in the past. Overall the Cardinals under Bruce Arians seemed better than their current head coach Steven Wilks.
Cleveland Browns (+2.5) @ Oakland Raiders - Strangely enough the Browns are not that far off from being in the driver's seat. The outcome of this game could vault them tied at the top of the division but could also be dead last with a loss. Oakland appears to be a first half team that is not that far from winning games but something is missing. It kind of reminds me of Joe Gibbs 2.0 with Gruden returning after 10 plus years. Perhaps his lack of analytics in game planning is hurting him here. One promising factor for the Raiders is that rookie quarterbacks like Mayfield typically struggle on the road. If the Raiders start 0-4 and lose to the Browns, one has to wonder how long Gruden lasts in his 10 year contract.
New Orleans Saints (-4) @ New York Giants - The Saints performance is impressive although I do not think the Saints can keep living on Brees running for two TDs. The Giants defense is much better than the banged up Falcons. Manning finally had a solid game against the Texans. Saquon Barkley can match Kamara for explosive plays although may not be the workhouse as a pass catching back in the backfield. Sean Payton makes his return to the Giants where he started and probably gives the Saints the edge with his play calling. Evan Engram being out hurts the Giants here unless another guy aside from Beckham can step up
Baltimore Ravens @ Pittsburgh Steelers (-3) - I am not in love with either team at this point. The Ravens really struggled on the road against the Bengals although granted it was on a short week on the road. The Steelers in the meantime did beat the Bucs although a lot of it came from Fitzparick throwing some picks that were careless. Overall I give the Steelers a small edge given their homefield advantage.
San Francisco (+11) @ LA Chargers - While the 49ers do not have Jimmy G, CJ Beathard is not a terrible quarterback. There is a good chance that the 49ers fan invade the Chargers stadium which may be enough to keep this game relatively close in single digits.
Kansas City Chiefs @ Denver Broncos (+6) - This is actually a serious test for the Chiefs even if the Broncos defense is not as strong in the past. It is an actual road game against a division rival that may be the toughest defense the Chiefs have played all year with altitude in Denver. At some point the Chiefs have to hit a bump in the road with a young Chiefs quarterback but it is hard to be sure of it given that he has thrown 11 touchdowns and 0 interceptions whose team is pretty stacked.
Week 4 Against the Spread: 0-0-1
Week 3 Straight up: 1-0
2018 Season against the Spread- 23-22-3
2018 Season Straight Up- 28-19-2
2018 Locks- 5-4-1
2017-18 Against the Spread- 221-225-7
2017-18 Season Straight Up - 167-92
2016-17 Against the Spread - 141-115-7
2016-17 Straight Up - 101-41
2016-17 Straight Up - 101-41
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