Sunday, January 18, 2015

NFL Conference Championship Preview and Predictions

Julius Peppers and the Packers defensee may have a
tough time containing Russell Wilson

Green Bay @ Seattle Seahawks (-8) - Seattle will try to keep their winning streak at home alive at 8 games.  Green Bay will try to find some of its magic back in 2011 when it won 3 games on the road and eventually ended up winning the Super Bowl.

The two teams met in week 1 of the NFL season, as the Seahawks blew out the Packers 36-16.   Still, the structure of both teams are different.  Seattle's wide receiver Percy Harvin who had 100 all purpose yards was traded to New York Jets.  Also, Green Bay's Eddy Lacy was not fully healthy and the Packers eventually became a much better team with improved chemistry as the season progressed.

Seattle's defense has been daunting as it slowed down a relatively healthy Cam Newton last week.  The Packers offense on paper is theoretically better but Rodgers has suffered an injured quad and could be limited as he was against the Cowboys.  Even without accounting for Rodger's injury, the Packers' offense has shown signs of vulnerability against opponents like the Buffalo Bills. Seattle should  be able to exploit a wounded Rodgers moreso than the Dallas Cowboys given that the Seahawks have a stronger front seven and secondary.  The crowd noise could also force Green Bay to commit penalties and could potentially for Green Bay into more third down and long conversions.

Seattle's offense also has the propensity to wear opponents out with it run game anchored by Marshawn Lynch.  Plus Wilson ability to extend plays should frustrate the Packers.  Seattle's offense was explosive enough against a really good Carolina defense which has better than the Packers.  Green Bay did have a good showing against the Cowboys with the help of a controversial juggle by Dez Byrant at the 1 yard line but despite not having any big name targets, Seattle offense should be able to put up more than 21 points than the Cowboys did last week.

Overall, it's hard for me to see Green Bay keeping this close unless Rodgers puts up a great effort. Even so, the odds are stacked against the Packers in this one against a Seattle defense that they have struggled to put up points, averaging only 15 points per game in their last two matchups


Andrew Luck is peaking at the right time,
will it be enough to beat the Patriots?

Indianapolis Colts (+6.5) @ New England Patriots-  This game could either be mark of continuous success for Tom Brady and the Patriots or a new era of change featured by Andrew Luck.  The Patriots have not even kept it close in their past two matchups against the Colts.  New England beat the Colts last year 43 to 22 in the playoffs and lost their regular season matchup 42 to 20- and each time compiling at least 4 rushing touchdowns.

Still, the Colts have conquered a few of its demons.  Indianapolis did end up beating the Broncos after losing the week 1 opener on Sunday night.  And the the Colts' defense so far in the playoffs has ended up making the solid NFL quarterbacks look silly including Andy Dalton and Peyton Manning.  The question is if the Colts defense is actually good enough to slow down Tom Brady.  Certainly, the Colts defense seems to be more intact health wise in the secondary than the Baltimore Ravens.

While the Patriots have suffered some bad playoff losses over the year, the feel of this team is slightly different with a healthy Gronkowski being a dynamic playmaker.   Tom Brady looks to back in pro bowl form with his favorite target back

Tom Brady celebrated a lot 
this year with Gronkowski healthy

While Andrew Luck has been inconsistent from game to game, the Colts offense should be a tougher test than the Ravens offense.  And yes, Luck has struggled at times on the road, but he did pick a great time to pick up the slack in the postseason against a tough Cincinnati defense and in the cold weather in Denver.  Luck has enough big play targets to make this game interesting.

I think the Patriots are still the slight favorites, but I get the sense that the Colts are growing up and could play the the Patriots close.  I think the Patriots will hold on for the win but Andrew Luck may have his chances to be the victor in the 4th quarter.  

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