NFC and AFC Championships Preview 2018

NFC starting quarterbacks 

Case Keenum and Nick Foles 

are both former Rams

Minnesota (-3) @ Philadelphia - Both teams have had great seasons and have exceeded most people expectations after losing their starting quarterbacks.  The Vikings also lost their starting running back Dalvin Cook for the season but have rushed the ball well despite his absence.   

Minnesota been the more potent team on offense not only indicated by the heroics of Steffon Diggs in a buzzer beating win but Adam Thielen who always seems to find the openings which made him fifth in receiving yards in the 2017-18 regular season .  The Vikings may be a tougher test for the Eagles than the Falcons, who never seemed to find their consistency week to week after the departure of Kyle Shanahan.  The Vikings and Eagles both have both have good defenses and while the Eagles secondary isn't as stout, they do have the advantage of playing at home.

I am leaning more towards the Minnesota here because of what Case Keenum has done this season including a 12-3 record in games where he has more than 20 passing attempts.  Nick Foles in the meantime has a 3-1 record as a starter for Philadelphia but the sample size is smaller and the margin of wins have been relatively thin.

Jacksonville @ New England (-7.5) - Jacksonville looked formidable against Pittsburgh.  There is a roadmap for the Jaguars to win this game by pressuring Tom Brady into mistakes.  That being said, Tom Brady has been pretty mistake free this season compared to Big Ben and the Steelers.  Brady had less interceptions (4) the entire season then Ben Roethlisberger had against the Jaguars during the regular season (5).

The cold weather as well as Tom Brady's hand injury could have an effect but we should not forget that Leonard Fournette is also banged up and playing with an ankle injury.   

NFL Divisional Playoffs

- Italicized for win

- Bolded for spread

Atlanta (-2.5) @ Philadelphia- This could be a close game because the Eagles still have a solid running game and decent defense.  That being said, Matt Ryan is the superior quarterback to Nick Foles and the Eagles's secondary has had trouble containing deep passing threats like Julio Jones.

Tennessee @ New England (-13.5) - Provided that Marcus Mariota hasn't perfected the pass to himself, the Patriots find themselves in a good position to cover here.  Derrick Henry's size could give the Patriots defense problems but the Patriots have been taking care of business lately.

Jacksonville @ Pittsburgh (-7)  - While the Steelers lost to the Jaguars earlier this season, this should give them the added motivation to take the Jaguars more seriously.  The Jaguars' offense has been sputtering behind Bortles who only threw for 87 yards last week against the Bills and could get worse for him from a karma standpoint after comparing himself to LeBron James.

New Orleans (+5.5) @ Minnesota -  This is a tossup game.  The Vikings have a better defense and playing in a dome should give them the advantage.  That being said, it would not surprise me if the Saints make it close especially with all the offensive weapons they have. 

Last Week Against the Spread - 0-4

Last Week Straight up - 2-2

2017-18 Against the Spread- 219-220-7

2017-18 Season Straight Up - 164-88

2016-17 Against the Spread - 141-115-7

2016-17 Straight Up - 101-41

2015-16 Against the Spread - 140-107

Week 17 Picks

- Italicized for win

- Bolded for spread

Chicago @ Minnesota (-12.5) - The Bears have 2 wins in their past 3 games, but two of those wins came against below average teams from Ohio.  The Vikings are still attempting to secure a first round bye.

Cleveland (+6) @ Pittsburgh - Even though the Steelers will be without Big Ben, Antonio Brown, and LeVeon Bell, the Steelers will most likely take care of business against the 0-15 Browns although it could be close down the stretch.

Dallas (-3) @ Philadelphia - The Eagles will likely be playing their backups in a meaningless game for them.

Green Bay @ Detroit (-7) - The Lions look to complete the season sweep against the Packers which will historically taken with a grain of salt due to the absence of Aaron Rodgers.

Houston @ Indianapolis (-6) - Injuries appear to have hit the Texans hard including Jadaveon Clowney and Deandre Hopkins.

New York Jets @ New England (-15.5) - The Patriots will put it all on the line against a poor team since they are playing for homefield throughout the playoffs.

Washington (-4) @ NY Giants - Washington has appeared to found its stride against lesser opponents like the Broncos and Cardinals.  The Giants who have amassed two wins are one of those lesser teams.

Carolina @ Atlanta (-4)  - The Panthers are still playing for a divisional bye so they could keep it close.  That being said, the Falcons would be eliminated from the playoffs if they lost so look for them to put up a better effort at home.

Buffalo (-2.5) @ Miami - A tough divisional matchup on the road for the Bills but they need this one to keep their playoff hopes alive.

Cincinnati @ Baltimore (-9) - The Bengals were already shut out at home by the Ravens earlier this season.

Kansas City @ Denver (-3) - The Chiefs will most likely rest their starters in a game that does not matter for them.

Jacksonville @ Tennessee (-1.5) - I am not a big believer in this Titans team but they are at home against a team that they already beat by 21 points earlier this season.

Oakland (+7) @ LA Chargers  - The Raiders have been too inconsistent to pick here for a win, but could make it close against a division rival.

San Francisco (-5) @ LA Rams - The Rams have nothing to play for.  Look for Jimmy G to stay undefeated as a starting quarterback.

New Orleans (-6) @ Tampa Bay - The Saints are playing for a division title.  The Bucs have covered the past few weeks, but I don't see that trend continuing against a Saints team that beat them by a 20 point margin earlier in the season.

Arizona (+8.5) @ Seattle  - Seattle looks to keeps its playoff hopes alive.  The Cardinals' defense could keep it close which has given up only 22 points in their last 3 games.

Week 16 Picks Against the Spread - 7-7-2
Week 16 Picks Straight up - 12-4
2017-18 Against the Spread- 109-111-7
2017-18 Season Straight Up - 151-81
2016-17 Against the Spread - 141-115-7
2016-17 Straight Up - 101-41
2015-16 Against the Spread - 140-107

Week 16 Picks

Detroit (-3) @ Cincinnati - Detroit is still trying to keep its playoff hopes alive.  The Bengals appear to have given up on their head coach Marvin Lewis. 

Miami @ Kansas City (-10.5) - Jay Cutler reverted to the mean last week against the Bills and look for that trend to continue in another road game against Kansas City who seem to be clicking on all cylinders after a nice win against the Chargers.

Buffalo @ New England (-11.5) - The Patriots escaped with a win against the Steelers and look to take care of the Buffalo Bills at home.  

Cleveland (+6) @ Chicago  - While the Bears should win, it could be a close game down the stretch.  Head coach John Fox is 0-6 straight up in games that the Bears are favored to win.  Then again, they are playing the Browns

Tampa Bay @ Carolina (-10.5) -  Carolina's strong defense could be the difference in this one.  Christian McCaffrey has been really solid option out of the backfield for the Panthers.

Atlanta (+6) @ New Orleans - The Saints look to take care of another division rival at home although it could be a close game down the stretch.  

Denver (+3.5) @ Washington - Brock Osweiler and the Bronco's offense looked sharp against the Colts and could pose problems for Washington if they can get their running game going. 

LA Rams (-5.5) @ Tennessee- The Titans lost a nail biter to the 49ers but things do not get easier for them as they line up against  Rams team that blew the Seahawks out.

LA Chargers (-7) @ NY Jets - The Chargers look to bounce back after a bad loss to the Chiefs in order to keep their playoff hopes alive.  The Jets offense has been running on fumes with McCown out but plan to run the ball and keep it a low scoring affair.

Jacksonville (-4) @ San Francisco - Jimmy G has been sharp but it may not be enough against a Jacksonville defense that has made opponents look silly.  Leonard Fournette also returns.

NY Giants @ Arizona (-3.5) - In a battle of struggling teams, the Cardinals may be able to take this one at home.

Seattle @ Dallas (-3) - The Seahwks may put up a better effort against the Cowboys than they did against the Rams but injuries appear to have taken a toll on this team.  Plus Dallas gets Ezekiel Elliot back from a suspension.

Pittsburgh (-9.5) @ Houston - Pittsburgh suffered a heartbreaking loss.  Even with Antonio Brown out, the Steeles will likely take out their frustrations on the Texans. 

Oakland (+10) @ Philadelphia - Philadelphia will most likely win this game although it could be closer given how much the Eagles struggled to put away the New York Giants.

Week 16 Picks Against the Spread - 1-1
Week 16 Picks Straight up - 2-0
2017-18 Against the Spread- 103-105-7
2017-18 Season Straight Up - 141-77
2016-17 Against the Spread - 141-115-7
2016-17 Straight Up - 101-41
2015-16 Against the Spread - 140-107

You can see some of my picks for this week and the rest of the season here on Sports on the Hill Podcast.

Week 16 Saturday Picks

Indianapolis @ Baltimore (-13.5) - The Colts looked shaky last week against the Broncos and could struggle against the Ravens on the roads who are looking to make a playoff push. 

Minnesota (-9.5) @ Green Bay - The Packers have conceded a lost season by putting Aaron Rodgers on injured reserve.  Look for the Vikings to take advantage who are still fighting for the top playoff spot in the NFC. 

Week 15 Picks Against the Spread - 8-5-1
Week 15 Picks Straight up - 10-4
2017-18 Against the Spread- 102-104-7
2017-18 Season Straight Up - 139-77
2016-17 Against the Spread - 141-115-7
2016-17 Straight Up - 101-41
2015-16 Against the Spread - 140-107

You can see some of my picks for this week and the rest of the season here on Sports on the Hill Podcast.

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Week 15 Picks Lightning Edition

Houston @ Jacksonville (-10.5) - The Jaguars will be without Leonard Fournette but their defense could be troublesome for TJ Yates. 

Baltimore (-7) @ Cleveland - The Ravens will look to take out last week's frustrating loss to the Steelers.

Green Bay @ Carolina (-3) - Aaron Rodgers return could be anti-climatic mostly because he will have to overcome a lot of rust against a Panthers' team that is also playing for a playoff spot. 

Miami  @ Buffalo (-3)  - Miami has been playing extremely well over the past few weeks including a nice double digit victory against the Patriots.  Tyrod Taylor returns and the cold weather could favor the Bills. 

Cincinnati @ Minnesota (-11) - After getting blown out by the Bears, the Bengals face an uphill battle in Minnesota.

Arizona (+4) @ Washington - Washington's defense is a mess.  Arizona did a nice job last season containing Kirk Cousins. 

Philadelphia (-7.5) @ NY Giants - The Eagles did lose Carson Wentz for the season but the Giants appear to be running on fumes without Odell Beckham.  Engram is a nice tight end going forward but have already lost to NFC East opponents by double digits due to an inconsistent running game. 

LA Rams (+1.5) @ Seattle - Seattle at home is always scary but have already lost two games at home mostly due to a banged up secondary. 

Tennessee @ San Francisco (-1.5) - This is the first time I can remember a 3-10 team being favored against a 8-5 one.  Jimmy Garoppolo is living up to the hype.  Marcus Mariotta's 10 touchdown to 14 turnovers has left a lot to be desired.   

New England @ Pittsburgh (+3) - The Patriots were schooled by the Dolphins but that should be used as a motivation to play well in the game that matters.  Still, the Steelers offense has been explosive which could spell trouble for the Patriots defense which has been banged up.  The Steelers have outscored their opponents in the 32-7.  The Steelers need to play with that kind of desperation to win.  The Steelers appear to have more talent so I am predicting them to win although it may be tough given that the Steelers have lost 4 straight to the Patriots.

Dallas (-2) @ Oakland - Dallas has won it's last two games without Ezekiel Elliot and looks to keep it's playoff hopes alive.

Week 15 Picks Against the Spread - 0-3
Week 15 Picks Straight up - 1-2
2017-18 Against the Spread- 94-102-6
2017-18 Season Straight Up - 130-75
2016-17 Against the Spread - 141-115-7
2016-17 Straight Up - 101-41
2015-16 Against the Spread - 140-107

Week 15 Saturday Picks

- Italicized for win

- Bolded for spread

Chicago (+5) @ Detroit - Detroit has not won a game by more than 3 since week 9.   Chicago is a run heavy team while Detroit will choose to pass the ball.   If Detroit jumps out to an early lead it could spell trouble for the Bears, although given Detroit has a poor rush defense, the Bears could keep it close.

LA Chargers (-1) @ Kansas City - The Chargers are playing well and the Chiefs' offense has only recently started to play well over the last 2 weeks. That being said, the Chargers have lost their last 7 games against Kansas Chiefs since 2013 and the Chiefs should receive a boost in their secondary as Marcus Peters comes back from an internal suspension.  Still, the Chargers appear to have the defensive edge since they are 3rd in interceptions and could force Alex Smith into some bad throws. 

Week 15 Picks Against the Spread - 0-1
Week 15 Picks Straight up - 0-1
2017-18 Against the Spread- 94-100-6
2017-18 Season Straight Up - 129-74
2016-17 Against the Spread - 141-115-7
2016-17 Straight Up - 101-41
2015-16 Against the Spread - 140-107