Super Bowl Pick

Carolina (-5) vs Denver

Carolina has come a long way since training camp

where Cam Newton fought his teammate Greg Norman

No matter what happens in this game, the last 8 Super Bowls will have been won by 8 different teams.  Five years ago, the Carolina Panthers and Denver Broncos had the top 2 picks in the NFL draft.  Carolina dominated as they forced the Cardinals into seven turnovers. Denver's win was impressive given that they were an underdog as they constantly pressured Tom Brady into bad throws and a playoff exit

Peyton Manning is the only QB to take multiple teams to the Super Bowl multiple times

— ESPN Stats & Info (@ESPNStatsInfo) January 25, 2016

Will Peyton Manning get his second Super Bowl win or will 

this be a repeat of what happened against Seattle 2 years ago?

The Broncos have a much better defense than the last time they were in the Super Bowl.   That being said, Cam Newton appears to be playing on a different level than Peyton Manning, not only being able to complete deep throws but also create runs on the ground.   Denver's defense may have more difficulty containing the Panthers as the Panthers appear to have more talent than the Patriots, especially at running back.  Newton's versatility has also helped open up the offense for Jonathan Stewart, who carved up Arizona's stingy defense in the NFC Championship.   Carolina's defense has done well beating up on good offensive teams including the Arizona and Seattle. Carolina may need to play with the same kind of dominance against a motivated Manning who could be playing his last game in his career. 

Last week: 1-1
Playoffs: 6-3-1

This season: 134-104-8

Conference Championship Picks

Cam Newton and Carson Palmer look to join 

the list of Heisman QBs to win Super Bowls

Arizona @ Carolina (-3) - This is a cold weather game for teams that have traditionally played in warm weather.  If anything, the cold weather plays more into Carolina's ability to run the ball with Newton and Stewart. Carson Palmer poise suffered against a solid Green Bay defense. Green Bay may have come away with a win had they not lost Randall Cobb for the game, although the Packers had their fair share of luck with a hail mary play to send the game into the overtime. The loss of pro bowler Mike Iupati could hurt Arizona's chances if they cannot protect Carson Palmer.  

Carolina appears to click on all cylinders by scoring 31 unanswered points against Seattle in the first half.  Questions remain about the Panthers' mental focus as Seattle made a game of it.  The loss of defensive end Jared Allen hurts but the Panthers still have key defensive weapons to slow down Arizona. Newton's ability to run the ball and throw it could be the difference in this game.

New England (-3) @ Denver - Tom Brady is 2-6 at Denver and Peyton Manning did beat New England last time in their meeting 2 years ago.  Still, Peyton Manning looks like a below average quarterback at this point of his career.  Denver really struggled against Pittsburgh last week but Denver's ability to create turnovers helped swing the game.  

While New England's running game has suffered due to injuries, Brady has done well connecting with his receivers including Edelman and Gronkowski.  The Broncos could keep this game close with its defense, running game, and special teams but Manning's inability to throw the ball deep makes the Patriots the favorites.  

Last week: 3-0-1
Playoffs: 5-2-1

This season: 133-103-8

Divisional Playoff Picks

The Patriots were blown out last time they played the Chiefs.

Tom Brady looks to get revenge

Kansas City @ New England (-4.5) - It is unclear how healthy New England is even coming off a bye.  Julian Edelman and Danny Amendola are coming back to play after long layoffs due to injuries.  Ndamukong Suh left Brady hobbling in week 17.  Chandler Jones was hospitalized for using synthetic marijuana, although he did not miss any practice time.   Gronkowski received treatment for his back this week and had not looked like himself over the past few weeks of the NFL season.  Even Bill Bellicheck had a black eye.  That being said, all New England Patriots are supposed to play and the Patriots have been notorious for making up injuries.

The Chiefs in the meantime roll into the game winning 11 straight but have a few injuries that could impact the game including Jeremy Maclin and Justin Houson have injuries but should be available for the Chiefs game.  

Green Bay (+7) @ Arizona - While the Packers were creamed 38-8 earlier this season, the Packers look like an improved team in their win at Washington.  While the Cardinals could easily come away with the win, it may be tough for them to repeat another blowout performance against a Packers team that is looking for revenge, and its fans travel well which could diminish Arizona's homefield advantage.  Look for Green Bay to get Randall Cobb more involved by placing him at running back.  

Seattle @ Carolina (-1.5) - Seattle is getting Marshawn Lynch back.  Still, Seattle barely came away with a win against the Vikings and it remains unclear.  Carolina did manage to overcome a double digit deficit against the Seahawks last time and still remain undefeated at home and with Jonathan Stewart in the lineup.

Pittsburgh @ Denver (-7) - Antonio Brown is out.  Ben Roethlisberger is playing with a strained shoulder which makes it questionable whether he can play effective and Landry Jones has not been great as a quarterback either.  Plus Pittsburgh is still without its top running backs in Leveon Bell and Deangelo Williams.  If Manning can move the ball on the Pittsburgh's defense, Denver's running game should take care of the rest and Denver could win comfortably.  

Last week: 2-2

This season: 130-103-7

Wild Card Picks

Russell Wilson looks to improve his 

6-2 playoff record

Kansas City (-3) @ Houston - The last time Kansas City won a playoff game was in Houston but it was against the Houston Oilers in 1993.  Still, Andy Reid has won a number of playoff games with the Philadelphia Eagles and Alex Smith has thrown 9 touchdowns and 0 interception in his last 3 playoff start with the 49ers.

Fun fact: The only player on @HoustonTexans active roster that has a playoff TD on his resume? @JJWatt with a pick six in 2011 postseason

— trey wingo (@wingoz) January 8, 2016

Houston has won its only playoff game in its franchise history against Kanasas City in 2011.  JJ Watt is also getting his cast removed.  Still, the Texans resume of wins is not as impressive as Kansas City.  Alex Smith is marginally better than Brian Hoyer.  Plus the Texans have injury issues with their offensive lines.  

Pittsburgh @ Cincinnati (+3) - Ben Roethlisberger may be a better quarterback than AJ McCarron.  Still, the Bengals do have the better defense.  Pittsburgh has also been inconsistent on the road as indicated by their week 16 against loss against the Ravens.   The Steelers will also be without running backs Leveon Bell and Deangelo Williams; the running game could play an even bigger factor in a cold weather game.

Seattle (-4.5) @ Minnesotta - The Vikings were 13-3 against the spread this season but this one feels like a loss like the last time that they face Seattle.  Marshawn Lynch may be out but Thomas Rawls returns who was pretty good in Lynch's absence.  Even if this becomes a game of who runs the ball better, Adrian Peterson goes against the number one rushing defense that held Peterson to less than 20 yards rushing in their last meeting.  Plus Russell Wilson is capable of making big plays both in the air and on the ground.

Green Bay @ Washington (-1) -  Washington is technically the better team as of late while the Packers have struggled going into the postseason.  Aaron Rodgers may be the better QB than Kirk Cousins but Washington has a better offensive line and better targets including Jordan Reed, Pierre Garcon, and Randall Cobb.  Rodgers was also the 2nd most sacked quarterback this season and it may have a lot to do with the loss of Jordy Nelson for the season. The Packers top target in Randall Cobb has only had one game with more than 100 yards.   Cousins is still an unproven quarterback but looks to improve upon his 6-2 as he's thrown for 23 touchdowns and 3 interceptions since week 8.  Both teams have solid defenses and average running games.  We will have to see if Washington will like that.  

Week 17 Picks

Ryan Fitzpatrick and Brandon Marshall will look to

connect in the endzone in Buffalo

(via NYDailyNews)

New York Jets (-3) @ Buffalo Bills - The Jets have won five straight and are playing for a playoff spot so they should be motivated for this game.  Buffalo did beat the Jets earlier in the season and have won their past three home games.  Still, Buffalo will be without LeSean McCoy who ran for over 100 yards in Bills last game against the New Yor Kets.  The Jets' defense could do a good job in pressuring Tyrod Taylor especially since his pass protection has been inadequate against teams like Philadelphia and Washington.

Tampa Bay @ Carolina (-10.5) - Carolina did not look good last week's loss against the Falcons.  Still, the Panthers have won their past five games against Tampa Bay and need a win to clinch homefield advantage throughout the postseason.  The Panthers could devise a game plan to slow down Jameis Winston, who struggled a lot against Chicago's defense.

New England (-10) @ Miami - The Patriots looked like they were trying to throw last weeks game against the Jets with the coin toss and not targeting Gronkowski.  The game  looks like an easy opportunity at redemption for the New England, especially since Miami has lost five of its past six games.

Pittsburgh (-11) @ Cleveland - Pittsburgh is playing for their playoff lives.  While Cleveland did play Kansas City close, things could get tough especially if the Roethlisberger plays well.  Big Ben already had 379 yards and 3 touch down performance against Cleveland earlier this season.

Baltimore @ Cincinnati (-10) - Baltimore came away with a surprising win against the Pittsburgh last weekend.  Still, Cincinnati will look to rebound last week, against a less than stellar Baltimore defense.  Even though the Bengals are without Dalton, AJ Green can still take advantage of Ravens' secondary.

Tennessee @ Indianapolis (-6)- Indianapolis playoff chances are slim and they are desperate at quarterback as they signed Josh Freeman who has not started a game since 2013.  Still, the Titans are still without Marcus Mariotta as they have been noncompetitive in their past 3 games without him.

New Orleans (+5.5) @ Atlanta - While Atlanta did beat Carolina last week, New Orleans also has a habit of playing their AFC South opponents close.  The Saints did beat Falcons by double digits earlier this season.

Washington (+4) @ Dallas - Even if Washington plays without Kirk Cousins, Washington may still have a better quarterback in Colt McCoy than the Cowboys do in Kellen Moore.  McCoy not only put up great numbers in preseason but also came away with a win at Dallas last season.

Detroit Lions @ Chicago Bears - Chicago has appears to be back on track after a win against Tampa Bay.  Chicago lost last time in Detroit in overtime and playing at home could give the Bears the edge.

Philadelphia (+5) @ NY Giants- Philadelphia has already fired Chip Kelly while the Giants are likely to move on from Tom Coughlin as soon as this season ends.  The Eagles offense could still put up points in this one against a poor Giants' secondary as this game could go either way.

Minnesota @ Green Bay (-3) - Minnesota has a chance to win the division against Green Bay. However, the Packers dismantled the Vikings in their last meeting by running the ball and Green Bay can likely repeat the same formula at home.

San Diego @ Denver (-9) -  Phillip Rivers has made a habit of keeping division games close.  Still, Denver's defense looked phenomenal in the second half and overtime against the Bengals and Denver should be motivated to keep homefield advantage throughout the playoffs.

St. Louis (-3.5) @ San Francisco - The Rams are coming off a surprise win against the Seahawks and look to keep its momentum going forward against a struggling 49ers team.  Even without Todd Gurley, St. Louis could still find a way to beat the San Francisco, who have not put up more than 20 points since playing the Chicago Bears in week 13.

Seattle (+6.5) @ Arizona - Arizona may rest its starters if Carolina takes care of business against the Buccaneers.  Russell Wilson and the Seahawks would have their hands full if Arizona plays all their players.

Last week: 8-7
This season: 122-94-6

Week 16 Picks

Philadelphia and Washington face off

with the NFC East up for grabs

(via Washington Post)

Washington (+3) @ Philadelphia - A toss up game between division rivals in a game that could ultimately decide the division championship.  Washington has won its last two meetings against the Eagles and even in their loss against Philadelphia last season, Washington managed to put up 35 points at Lincoln Financial.

Sam Bradford is capable of throwing deep bombs against Washington's secondary.  Mychal Kendricks of the Eagles are talking trash and giving Washington bulletin board material- "If I know myself and I know my teammates, the Redskins got something coming to them.  For real. That's real shit."

Of course, DeSean Jackson likely could get revenge against his former team especially since the Eagles have injuries in the secondary


NY Giants (+6) @ Minnesota - Even though the Giants are losing Odell Beckham for one game due to a suspension, they are still playing for their playoff lives.  Manning has other viable targets including Randle and Vereen to make this close.  Of course, the Giants need to step it up defensively or they could be looking at another disappointing season.

Chicago @ Tampa Bay (-3) - Chicago has blown a lot of games as of late to lesser opponents and Lovie Smith looks to get revenge against his former team.

Carolina (-6.5) @ Atlanta - Atlanta is coming off a win but the Panthers have easily took care of business earlier in the season with 38-0 drumming.  Carolina had a bit of letdown against the Giants but are still playing for homefield advantage throughout the playoffs.

Dallas @ Buffalo (-6) - Buffalo will be missing Lesean McCoy with an injury but Dallas could be without Dez Bryant and Cole Beasley.  The Dallas Cowboys will go with yet another quarterback in Kellen Moore.

Jacksonville @ New Orleans (-3) - New Orleans blew another home game last week to the Lions but go against the Jaguars who are battling for a division title, have still struggled against lesser opponents including the Titans and Falcons

San Francisco @ Detroit (-10) - Detroit when playing up to its potential is cable of putting the clamps down on defense against high octane teams like the Packers and Saints.  The 49ers have scored 14 points or less in six of their past seven games.  

Cleveland @ Kansas City (-11) - Cleveland did struggle on the road against the Seattle.  These problems could continue against the Kansas City who look to solidify their playoff case.

Indianapolis @ Miami (-2.5) - Perhaps Matt Hasselbeck has reverted back to the mean.  In a battle of two struggling teams, the Dolphins may have the edge from the homefield advantage as they look to recover from a bad loss to San Diego.

New England  @ NY Jets (+3) - This could be a defensive battle especially if the Patriots could be without Brandon LaFell.   The Jets could devise an effective strategy to slow down Gronkowski and they have enough offensive weapons in Marshall, Decker, and Ivory to pull off the upset.

Houston (-3.5) @ Tennessee - In this battle of backup quarterbacks, Houston's defense could be the difference.  Look for the Texans to establish the run early and often with Alfred Blue.

Green Bay @ Arizona (-4.5) - While Arizona suffered notable injuries to their secondary, they could still throw out an effective game plan to slow down Aaron Rodgers.  Arizona may be the deepest teams in terms of receivers and running back David Johnson showed shades of Marshawn Lynch last week against the Eagles.

St. Louis @ Seattle (-12.5) - Seattle will look to take revenge against the Rams who pulled out a close win against Seattle earlier in the season.  Seattle was without Kam Chancellor and should put the clamps down on St. Louis's offense.

Cincinnati @ Denver (-3.5) - In the battle of backup quarterbacks, Brock Osweiler is slightly better. The Broncos managed to play the Steelers to one score where as the Bengals lost by double digits to Pittsburgh.  

Week 16 Thursday Night Pick

Phillip Rivers looks to even the series

after losing to the Raiders earlier this season

San Diego (+5.5) @ Oakland - Both teams come into this game eliminated from playoff contention.  San Diego is coming off a win against the Miami Dolphins while the Raiders did manage to keep it relatively close against the Packers. While it is a home game for the Raiders, San Diego should be more well rested given that they traveled less. 

Last week: 8-8

Season: 114-87-6