Week 2 Picks

- Italicized for win

- Bolded for spread

Indianapolis @ Washington Redskins (-6) -  The Colts almost came away with a win against a playoff contender in the Bengals until Jack Doyle fumbled the ball which lead to a TD return that put the game out of reach at the end of the 4th quarter.  The Redskins theoretically will be tested more by Andrew Luck and TY Hilton than they were by the Cardinals' offense.  The Colts 1-7 record is concerning and even with Luck back at the helm, it will be his first start on the road in a couple of years.

Things could get very ugly for the Colts defense if Adrian Peterson is back to form.  The Colts were unable to contain Joe Mixon who had 5.6 yards per carry.  Overall Washington can be very explosive offensively especially if the Colts are unable to get pressure on Alex Smith. 

Carolina @ Atlanta Falcons (-6) - Both teams are banged up in what will be a game of attrition.  The Falcons will be without their star running back Devontae Freeman while the Panthers will be without their pro bowl tight end Greg Olsen and top passing target.  The Falcons red zone woes are worrisome, granted perhaps they will operate better on that end when returning back to Atlanta and do not have to play against the Eagles.  The Falcons have won their last three meetings at home against Carolina by at least a touchdown and they have had extra time prepare coming off a Thursday night game.

Minnesota Vikings @ Green Bay (+2.5) - Aaron Rodgers is banged up but he should still be a tougher test for the Vikings than Jimmy G.  Plus Rodgers appeared to have found his groove in the 4th quarter where the Packers mustered up 21 points of offense even if he is playing with a hobbled leg.  The Vikings offense in the meantime seemed a bit underwhelming especially in the 2nd half against a 49ers defense that was not very good last season.  In this division rivalry game, I am taking the home team.

LA Chargers (-7.5) @ Buffalo Bills - Nathan Peterman has been awful in his first two starts in his NFL career.  The Chargers do seem to better on the road than at home.  The weather in Buffalo will be warm which will favor the Chargers.

Houston (-2) @ Tennessee - Delanie Walker is out for the Titans.  I also expect Watson to overcome a lot of rust against the Titans.

Miami @ New York Jets (-3) - Both teams are coming off unexpected wins.  The Jets win against the Lions seems like a bigger deal since it was on the road and the rookie Sam Darnold completed 76% of his passes.

Philadelphia (-3.5) @ Tampa Bay - The Eagles defense will face a different challenge of facing a Bucs offense that has more multitude of passing targets than the Atlanta Falcons.  However, the Eagles defense is much better than the Saints.  I expect Foles to find a better rhythm against the Bucs.  Ryan Fitzpatrick has been very up and down in his career.

Kansas City (+6) @ Pittsburgh Steelers - Eric Berry is out which could make it a high scoring game.  Still, Leveon Bell is still out, while Big Ben has looked shaky, granted he usually bounces back from poor performances. The Chiefs could get more out of Kelce and Hunt if the Steelers defense focuses more attention on Tyreek Hill.

Cleveland @ New Orleans (-9.5) [LOCK]- This is a must win for the Saints.  Their offense put up 40 points against the Bucs.  Cleveland could struggle immensely on the road especially with Josh Gordon out.

Arizona @ LA Rams (-12.5)[LOCK] - The Rams looked like the best team in the NFL last week in the 2nd half against the Chargers.  The Cardinals may be putting in a good run for being the worst team in the NFL, if only the Buffalo Bills did not have Nathan Peterman.  The Rams have won 7 of their 17 games last week by 16 points or more since Sean McVay has become the head coach; 3 of those came against the Cardinals.

Detroit @ San Francisco (-6) - Jimmy G should perform better after a rough performance against the Vikings. The Lions' defense under Matt Patricia seems like a mess.

New England Patriots (-1.5) @ Jacksonville Jaguars- The Patriots look like the better team especially with Fournette out of the lineup. 

Oakland Raiders @ Denver Broncos (-6.5) - The Broncos offense looked pretty dominant against the Seahawks.  Gruden does not seem like a terrible coach but I don't think he can overcome average performances by Derek Carr and Amari Cooper on the road against a division rival.

New York Giants (+3) @ Dallas Cowboys - While Eli Manning is declining and Dak Presscot is a solid quarterback, I think the Giants have more weapons offensively including top end wide receiver in Beckham, a good tight end in Engram, and a better offensive line.  Barkley also looked solid against a very good Jaguars defense.

Seattle Seahawks (+3.5) @ Chicago Bears - Seattle did relatively well in what appears to be a possible playoff contender in the Denver Broncos.  Chicago looked great in the first half against Green Bay but really struggled in the 4th quarter.  I do not see Chicago's offense as being capable of generating big plays which ultimately cost the Seahawks the game against the Broncos.  Despite Doug Baldwin's inability to play in this one, I still think Seattle with Russell Wilson at the helm could be a enough to overcome Seattle's poor offensive line play.

Week 2 Against the Spread: 1-0
Week 2 Straight Up- 1-0

2018 Season against the Spread- 10-6-1
2018 Season Straight Up- 12-4-1
2018 Locks- 1-1

2017-18 Against the Spread- 221-225-7

2017-18 Season Straight Up - 167-92

2016-17 Against the Spread - 141-115-7
2016-17 Straight Up - 101-41

2015-16 Against the Spread - 140-10

Week 2 Thursday Night Pick

- Italicized for win

- Bolded for spread

Baltimore Ravens @ Cincinnati Bengals (+1)

The Ravens had an impressive week one. Receivers like Michael Crabtree, John Brown, and Willie Snead looked fairly reliable as both caught TD passes. Three different Ravens running backs also ran for TDs. That being said, Nathan Peterman may have put the Bills as the worst team in the league. Cincinnati in the meantime is 7-2 against the spread in their last nine meetings against Baltimore. Cincinnati also has decent receivers including AJ Green and John Ross. Anything can happen in this rivalry but taking Cincinnati at home is where I am leaning especially on a short week.

2018 Week 1 Against the Spread- 9-6-1
2018 Week 1 Straight Up- 11-4-1

2017-18 Against the Spread- 221-225-7
2017-18 Season Straight Up - 167-92

2016-17 Against the Spread - 141-115-7
2016-17 Straight Up - 101-41

2015-16 Against the Spread - 140-10

Week 1 Picks

- Italicized for win

- Bolded for spread

Pittsburgh Steelers @ Cleveland Browns (+4) - The Steelers are without Le'Veon Bell and rainy conditions could make this game a toss up.

San Francisco 49ers (+6.5) @ Minnesota Vikings - The Vikings have suffered a few injuries on their offensive line.  Jimmy G is 5-0 in his 49ers tenure and could do enough to keep it close. 

Cincinnati Bengals (+3) @ Indianapolis Colts  - Andrew Luck returns. However, the Colts' homefield advantage is pretty weak given that they have not had a winning record at home since 2014. 

Buffalo Bills (+7.5) @ Baltimore Ravens - Nathan Peterman has looked shaky so far but at the end of the day the Bills were still a playoff team that has a solid defense that could keep it close against the Ravens.  This of course assumes that Peterman can avoid turnovers, as the Bills will attempt to get the ball to LeSean McCoy.

Jacksonville Jaguars (-3) @ NY Giants - The Giants look interesting with some new combination of weapons including a healthy Beckham, a rookie running back Saquon Barkley, and a nice tight end in Evan Engram.  While the Jaguars lost Allen Hurns to the Cowboys, they were still a couple of plays of making it to the Super Bowl.  Leonard Fournette could be the difference in these rainy conditions assuming the Jaguars defense holds up against Barkley.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ New Orleans Saints (-9.5) LOCK - New Orleans usually takes care of business at home.   The Bucs start Ryan Fitzpatrick which could mean more turnovers for the Saints defense.

Houston Texans @ New England Patriots (-6.5) - Houston and DeShaun Watson really pushed New England to the limit last season in a regular season matchup. However, Watson is coming off a knee injury and could be a bit rusty while the Patriots look to atone for last season's Super Bowl loss against the Eagles.

Tennessee Titans @ Miami Dolphins (+1.5) - Ryan Tanehill looks to continue the Dolphins' success in home openers as they have won 4 of their past 5.  The Titans are 9-21 against the spread in their last 30 road games. 

Kansas City Chiefs (+3.5) @ LA Chargers - The Chiefs are 8-0 against the Chargers in their last 8 games.  There might be more Chiefs fans in this game. 

Seattle Seahawks (+3) @ Denver Broncos - Denver upgrades its offense with Keenum at QB who may finally be able to connect with their reliable receivers including Thomas and Sanders.  Seattle's defense has lost a few players and Seattle's offense can be anemic at times.  Still Russell Wilson's mobility in the pocket could be enough to get the Seahawks with a win on the road. 

Dallas Cowboys @ Carolina Panthers (-3) LOCK - Dallas's offensive weapons other than Elliot do not seem to be reliable and the Panthers boasted the third best rushing defense last season. 

Washington Redskins (+1) @ Arizona Cardinals - The Redskins appear to have a reliable offensive line and defensive line.  While the Cardinals could present problems in forcing Alex Smith into difficult decisions, the Redskins will look to get the running game with Adrian Peterson.  David Johnson could present problems although Washington also gets another good pass catching option with Chris Thompson.  Former Pro Bowl Tight end Jordan Reed is also healthy. 

Chicago Bears @ Green Bay Packers (-7.5) - The Bears look interesting but typically struggle on the road and their offense may not be able to keep pace if they are playing from behind. 

New York Jets  @ Detroit Lions (-6.5) - The Jets' defense could do enough to keep it close. However, Darnold has a lot of hype but he's still a rookie quarterback.  The Lions were only 4-4 at home last season but their losses came against playoff teams including the Falcons, Steelers, Panthers, and Vikings. 

LA Rams (-4) @ Oakland Raiders - The Rams look very explosive on offense and look to take advantage of the absence of Khalil Mack. 

2018 Week 1 Against the Spread- 0-1
2018 Week 1 Straight Up- 0-1

2017-18 Against the Spread- 221-225-7

2017-18 Season Straight Up - 167-92

2016-17 Against the Spread - 141-115-7

2016-17 Straight Up - 101-41

2015-16 Against the Spread - 140-107

Thursday Night Football Week 1: Atlanta @ Philadelphia

Wentz is out and Foles is in

Atlanta Falcons (-1) @ Philadelphia Eagles -  For the second straight season the Falcons will try to avenge their loss against the defending Super Bowl Champions in the regular season.  The last time did not work out so well against the Patriots in the 2017 regular season where the Falcons were blown out 23-7.

In their last playoff matchup against Philadelphia, Atlanta ended up containing the Eagles read pass option offense to only five field goals but their offense could not get out of their way by only scoring 10 points.   That being said, perhaps Julio Jones’s hands are a bit warmer in this non-cold weather game.  Devontae Freeman is also healthy in this matchup, whereas in the last game he only rushed 7 yards.   The Falcons will also look to expand their passing game with the young wideout Calvin Ridley which may prevent Julio Jones from seeing double coverage.

For now, I think Foles could fall back to earth a bit without Alshon Jeffrey in the lineup.  Even in their playoff win, the Eagles failed to score a touchdown and could find it even harder to score in the redzone without LeGarratte Blount, who signed with the Lions.    

2017-18 Against the Spread- 221-225-7

2017-18 Season Straight Up - 167-92

2016-17 Against the Spread - 141-115-7

2016-17 Straight Up - 101-41

2015-16 Against the Spread - 140-107

Super Bowl Pick 2018

Philadelphia (+4.5) vs New England

This has the potential to be a fun game.  While I believe the Eagles have a really good chance of winning this one due to their front seven, I remember that they are dealing with a few injuries including losing starting QB Carson Wentz, Jason Peters, and Jordan Hicks to season ending injuries.  I suppose it also depends on which Eagles offense that we see.  The Eagles manged to put up 28 points against a strong Minnesota defense but only managed to score 15 points against a a decent but far from great Falcons' defense.   And even Minnesota's defense may not have been that strong as indicated by Saints 24 point outburst in the 2nd half in the divisional round.  I would be surprised if the Eagles were that successful offensively against a Patriots defense in which Bill Belichick has had 2 weeks to prepare.

On the other hand, while the Patriots have been the best team in the NFL but they have shown they are not invincible, the Patriots appeared more vulnerable than ever to lose until Tom Brady put together an incredible game ending drive.  Although Bortles showed flashes of competence as well against the Steelers, he really struggled in the 2nd half that may have had to due with the Patriots defense but frankly he missed open targets which I suspect Eagles quarterback Nick Folesis more than capable of converting those opportunities.  The Eagles running game is pretty good with Ajayi, Blount, and Clement, although it remains unclear if the Eagles can create a similar advantage that Jacksonville created with Leonard Fournette.  Still, the Patriots linebackers could have trouble containing Zach Ertz.

While the Eagles took the Vikings to the tool shed in a 35-7 game, I'm going to say I am more impressed at how the Patriots were able to overcome adversity.  I am expecting the Patriots to win a close game.  All of their Super Bowls have been decided by 6 points or less. 

As for my rooting interests, let the best team win.  The Eagles are a division rival with some passionate fans, while it is fun to throw the no rings argument at them, the Eagles have been more relevant than Washington in the last 20 years and hopefully the Eagles' success inspires the DC franchise to get their act together.  As for the Patriots winning 6 Super Bowls and everyone getting tired of seeing the same thing over and over again, remember the Patriots were in a similar position as the Eagles in 2001.  Tom Brady is the last backup quarterback to win a Super Bowl (although technically he pretty much supplanted Drew Bledsoe as a starter).  Nonetheless, while the Eagles may find themselves in the underdog in this one, one has to figure they are more likely to be in this position again in the not to distant future with Carson Wentz and already look like the favorites to win the NFC East next season. 

Last Week Against the Spread - 0-2

Last Week Straight up - 1-1

2017-18 Against the Spread- 221-224-7

2017-18 Season Straight Up - 167-91

2016-17 Against the Spread - 141-115-7

2016-17 Straight Up - 101-41

2015-16 Against the Spread - 140-107

NFC and AFC Championships Preview 2018

NFC starting quarterbacks 

Case Keenum and Nick Foles 

are both former Rams

Minnesota (-3) @ Philadelphia - Both teams have had great seasons and have exceeded most people expectations after losing their starting quarterbacks.  The Vikings also lost their starting running back Dalvin Cook for the season but have rushed the ball well despite his absence.   

Minnesota been the more potent team on offense not only indicated by the heroics of Steffon Diggs in a buzzer beating win but Adam Thielen who always seems to find the openings which made him fifth in receiving yards in the 2017-18 regular season .  The Vikings may be a tougher test for the Eagles than the Falcons, who never seemed to find their consistency week to week after the departure of Kyle Shanahan.  The Vikings and Eagles both have both have good defenses and while the Eagles secondary isn't as stout, they do have the advantage of playing at home.

I am leaning more towards the Minnesota here because of what Case Keenum has done this season including a 12-3 record in games where he has more than 20 passing attempts.  Nick Foles in the meantime has a 3-1 record as a starter for Philadelphia but the sample size is smaller and the margin of wins have been relatively thin.

Jacksonville @ New England (-7.5) - Jacksonville looked formidable against Pittsburgh.  There is a roadmap for the Jaguars to win this game by pressuring Tom Brady into mistakes.  That being said, Tom Brady has been pretty mistake free this season compared to Big Ben and the Steelers.  Brady had less interceptions (4) the entire season then Ben Roethlisberger had against the Jaguars during the regular season (5).

The cold weather as well as Tom Brady's hand injury could have an effect but we should not forget that Leonard Fournette is also banged up and playing with an ankle injury.   

NFL Divisional Playoffs

- Italicized for win

- Bolded for spread

Atlanta (-2.5) @ Philadelphia- This could be a close game because the Eagles still have a solid running game and decent defense.  That being said, Matt Ryan is the superior quarterback to Nick Foles and the Eagles's secondary has had trouble containing deep passing threats like Julio Jones.

Tennessee @ New England (-13.5) - Provided that Marcus Mariota hasn't perfected the pass to himself, the Patriots find themselves in a good position to cover here.  Derrick Henry's size could give the Patriots defense problems but the Patriots have been taking care of business lately.

Jacksonville @ Pittsburgh (-7)  - While the Steelers lost to the Jaguars earlier this season, this should give them the added motivation to take the Jaguars more seriously.  The Jaguars' offense has been sputtering behind Bortles who only threw for 87 yards last week against the Bills and could get worse for him from a karma standpoint after comparing himself to LeBron James.

New Orleans (+5.5) @ Minnesota -  This is a tossup game.  The Vikings have a better defense and playing in a dome should give them the advantage.  That being said, it would not surprise me if the Saints make it close especially with all the offensive weapons they have. 

Last Week Against the Spread - 0-4

Last Week Straight up - 2-2

2017-18 Against the Spread- 219-220-7

2017-18 Season Straight Up - 164-88

2016-17 Against the Spread - 141-115-7

2016-17 Straight Up - 101-41

2015-16 Against the Spread - 140-107