2024 NFL Conference Championship Picks

Travis Kelce told Justin Tucker he needed to move because their QB Patrick Mahomes had to warm up. So Kelce kicked his ball away and threw his helmet.  

Kansas City Chiefs (-3.5) @ Baltimore Ravens - The body of work of the season suggests the Chiefs aren't going to be able to pull through.  Still, the Chiefs are coming in strongly.  The Chiefs will have to limit the Ravens better than the Texans did the previous week.  The weather is warmer than when the Chiefs just won on the run.  Governor Wes Moore is chugging beers with the fans which should create a favorable home atmosphere.  Taylor Swift did cancel a tour date in Tokyo to be in this game to see Travis Kelce.  

Detroit Lions (+7) @ San Francisco 49ers - Detroit Lions have been playing well although the 49ers have thwarted Jared Goff in the past.  Brock Purdy was limited by a Packers defense for most of the game due to an injury to Deebo Samuel.  For now I am predicting that the 49ers get back on track after a relatively poor showing against the 

Last Week Against the Spread- 3-1

Last Week Straight Up - 4-0

Last week Locks - 1-0

2023 Against the Spread - 135-126-1

2023 Locks - 29-17

2023 Straight Up - 173-106

2024 NFL Divisional Round

Detroit's Offensive Coordinator Ben Johnson has already interviewed with the Panthers and Commanders and sources consider him the favorite to land the Washington job

Houston Texans @ Baltimore Ravens (-9.5) - CJ Stroud and the Texans have had a surprising season although it could be tough for the Texans to win on the road.  The cold weather and a bye could make the Ravens favorites here although CJ Stroud has been playing well, perhaps the cold weather could slow down the Texans

 Kansas City Chiefs (-2.5) (LOCK) @ Buffalo Bills - This is a rematch of an earlier matchup of a controversial ending.  Either team could win this one, while the Bills will have homefield, the Chiefs will have Isiah Pacheco who did not play in the first meeting.   The Bills are also playing with 2 days less rest.

Green Bay Packers @ San Francisco 49ers (-9.5) - The Green Bay Packers are the youngest team to win a playoff game in NFL history.  The 49ers are coming off a bye and Kyle Shanahan usually has the 49ers prepared.  

Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Detroit Lions (-6.5) - The Lions homefield could be a bit much for Baker Mayfield who looks like he isn't 100%.  The Lions didn't look to sharp in the 2nd half although the Rams look like they were a much tougher opponent than the Eagles.  

Last Week Against the Spread- 4-2

Last Week Straight Up - 4-2

Week 17 Locks - 1-0

2023 Against the Spread - 132-125-1

2023 Locks - 28-17

2023 Straight Up - 169-106

2024 NFL Wild Card Round

According to heavy.com, Tua is 0-4 under 40 degrees. Tonight game is expected to be -7. 

 Cleveland Browns @ Houston Texans (+2) -  The Browns took care of the Texans fairly easily although they were missing CJ Stroud.  While Joe Flacco has been great, I see this as more of a toss up game.  It could be difficult for the Browns to win in the same manner twice in a row.  Even though the Texans are shorthanded.  The Texans even beat the Ravens earlier in the season.

Miami Dolphins @ Kansas City Chiefs (-4) - The Dolphins are dealing with several injuries and the weather could limit Tyreek Hill's effectiveness through the air.  The Chiefs are vulnerable due their lackluster regular season but typically pull it together at home.

Pittsburgh Steelers (+10) @ Buffalo Bills - Perhaps the Steelers can hang around in Buffalo due their running game and the Bills rush defense has been not as strong during times in the regular season.  Plus the Bills have managed to keep their games close against below average teams like the Patriots and Chargers.  Mason Rudolph isn't exactly a great quarterback but he is an upgrade over Mitch Trubisky.  The weather is not as terrible

Green Bay Packers (+7.5) @ Dallas Cowboys- The Packers are the youngest team to make the playoffs since the 1984 New England Patriots.   Jordan Love has closed the season strong.  Aaron Jones has been playing better.

Philadelphia Eagles (-3) @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers -  The Eagles are going to be without AJ Brown.   Baker Mayfield is also banged up.   The Bucs may be a poor matchup for the Eagles given the blowout that happened earlier in the season although with the way the Eagles are playing, an upset could also happen.  

Los Angeles Rams (+3)(LOCK) @ Detroit Lions - Mathew Stafford returns home.  OC Ben Johnson has the Lions with a great offense but somehow I feel that Sean McVay can win the coaching matchup here.  

Week 18 Against the Spread- 13-3

Week 18 Straight Up - 13-3

Week 17 Locks - 4-0

2023 Against the Spread - 128-124-1

2023 Locks - 27-17

2023 Straight Up - 165-104

2023 Week 18 Picks

The Browns are scheduled to pay Watson a fully guaranteed contract and

 are likely stuck with him until 2026

Pittsburgh Steelers (-5.5) @ Baltimore Ravens - The Steelers need a win to get in while the Ravens have nothing to play for.  Pittsburgh already beat the Ravens earlier this season.  Huntley is a solid backup and the Ravens will likely try to play spoiler.

  

Houston Texans (-1) @ Indianapolis Colts - One should favor CJ Stroud in the clutch.

Cleveland Browns @ Cincinnati Bengals (-6) - The Browns are resting all starters of consequence.

Minnesota Vikings @ Detroit Lions (-3) - The Lions do not have much to play for but the Vikings appeared to have mailed in the season.

Jacksonville Jaguars (-5.5) @ Tennessee Titans - The Jaguars could get Trevor Lawrence back and they already blew out the Titans earlier in the season. 

New York Jets (+2.5) @ New England Patriots-  The Jets have slightly better skill position players.  The Patriots may want to lose this game on purpose to secure the #2 pick.

Atlanta Falcons @ New Orleans Saints (-3) - The Saints have won 3 of their past 4 and the Falcons have lost 3 of their past 4.   Derrick Carr will try to keep it together one more week after an impressive performance against the Bucs.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-5.5) @ Carolina Panthers - The Bucs will try to keep their playoff hope alive while the Panthers failed to score last week.

Chicago Bears @ Green Bay Packers (-3)(LOCK) - The Packers have won 5 of their past 7 games while the Bears are also playing well.  The Packers are looking to complete the season sweep.

Denver Broncos @ Las Raiders (-2.5)(LOCK) - The Broncos do not appear to be that much worse without Russell Wilson but the Raiders are playing harder under Antonio Pierce.

Philadelphia Eagles(-5.5) @ New York Giants - The Giants did play the Rams tough but the Eagles are looking to get back in rhythm after a bad loss to the Cardinals plus keep their slight hope of a playoff hopes alive.  Although one can't rule out the Eagles letting their gas off the pedal if they see that Dallas is taking care of business.

Seattle Seahawks @ Arizona Cardinals (+3) - It looks like the Cardinals are finally playing well with Kyler Murray back plus Kenneth Walker is banged up.

Kansas City Chiefs @ Los Angeles Chargers (-3) - The Chiefs will be resting their starters.

Los Angeles Rams (+3.5) @ San Francisco 49ers - Both teams are resting their starters .

Dallas Cowboys (-13)(LOCK) @ Washington Commanders - Dallas is looking to secure a division title.  If Ron Rivera wins this game he will have one more win than loss for his career.  However, Washington is incentivized to lose to secure a chance at the #2 pick.

Buffalo Bills (-3)(LOCK) @ Miami Dolphins-  The Dolphins have less incentives to win this game than Buffalo.  Plus Miami is dealing with more injuries as Jaylen Waddle and Raheem Mostert is ruled out.  

Week 17 Against the Spread- 9-7

Week 17 Straight Up - 11-5

Week 17 Locks - 1-2

2023 Against the Spread - 115-121-1

2023 Locks - 23-17

2023 Straight Up - 152-101