2021 Week 16 Picks

Joe Burrow says "fortunately, there's not a lot to do in Cincinnati," 

which has helped the Bengals from going out and getting COVID-19

via Ben Baby

Detroit Lions (+6) @ Atlanta Falcons - Perhaps the Lions can get a boost with Deandre Swift back in the lineup.  

Baltimore Ravens @ Cincinnati Bengals (-2.5) - With Huntley out, one should expect the Bengals to pull away against Josh Johnson who last played with the Washington Football Team.

Los Angeles Rams (-3) @ Minnesota Vikings -  Dalvin Cook entered the Covid protocol meaning the Rams should have a leg up in this one.  

Buffalo Bills (+2.5) @ New England Patriots -  Maybe the Bills matchup poorly with the Patriots, although I'm just expecting perhaps a split between the division rivals this season.

Jacksonville Jaguars @ New York Jets(-2.5) - Neither team has been great although the Jets have played better at home lately.  

New York Giants @ Philadelphia Eagles (-10) - Jake Fromm makes the start over Mike Glennon.  The Eagles have finally gotten their running game going and look to continue their winning ways against the lesser teams of the NCF East without their starting quarterbacks.  

Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Carolina Panthers (+10.5) - Tampa Bay typically bounces back from terrible performances.  The injuries to their key skill position players are concerning though including MIke Evans, Chris Godwin, and Leonard Fournette.  Still, perhaps guys like Gronkowski and Giovanni Bernard can fill in the gaps.  

Los Angeles Chargers @ Houston Texans (+9.5) - The Chargers will attempt to pull away against a Texans  team coming off a win against the Jaguars.  The Texans defense has been surprisingly solid but their running game hasn't been great.   Davis Mills has been competent although this game could become problematic if it becomes a shootout.  Austin Eckler is out which could limit the Chargers upside of completing the blowout although perhaps Justin Jackson can fill in the gaps.  

Chicago Bears @ Seattle Seahawks (-6.5) - No Justin Fields in this one, which means the return of Nick Foles.  Neither team has much to play for other than pride.  Perhaps the Seahawks can do enough to pull away although nothing is a given with Seattle who blew a lead to the Rams last week.

Pittsburgh Steelers (+7.5) @ Kanas City Chiefs - The Steelers look to keep their playoff hopes alive against a Kansas City Chiefs team that will be without a few players including star tight end Travis Kelce.  At least the Chiefs have Kelce which should be enough to pull away.

Denver Broncos @ Las Vegas Raiders (-1.5) - The Raiders look to continue winning.  THey aren't exactly explosive but should do well enough against the anemic Bronco's offense.

Washington Football Team @ Dallas Cowboys (-10.5)- Washington appears to be getting a few players back from Covid although they will be without Landon Collins for the rest of the season.  Washington must win this game to keep its playoff hopes alive.

Miami Dolphins (+3) @ New Orleans Saints - With Taysom Hill out, the Saints could potentially struggle against a Dolphins team that started the season 1-7 and is now 7-7.  

Week 14 against the Spread - 11-4

Week 14 Straight Up- 10-5

Week 14 Locks - 1-0

2021 Against the Spread- 113-105

2021 Straight Up- 123-85-1

2021 Locks - 10-5

2020 Against the Spread- 124-140-6

2020 Week Straight Up - 173-97-1

2020 Locks- 24-24-2

2019 Season Against the Spread- 128-113-3

2019 Season Straight Up- 158-103

2019 Locks - 21-19-2

2020 Postseason against the Spread- 8-3

2020 Postseason Straight Up- 7-4

2018 Season against the Spread- 112-107-7

2018 Season Straight Up- 137-86-2

2018 Locks- 21-16-2

2017-18 Against the Spread- 121-125-7

2017-18 Season Straight Up - 167-92

2016-17 Against the Spread - 141-115-7

2016-17 Straight Up - 101-41

2015-16 Against the Spread - 140-110 

 

2021 Week 15 Picks

 Deebo Samuels is looking to become the first wide receiver

to lead his team in both receiving and rushing touchdowns

via Adam Schefter

Dallas Cowboys (-10.5) @ New York Giants-  This game will likely go Dallas's way although it wouldn't surprise me if the Giants keep it close given that they won and covered the last 3 home games.  Granted those were with Daniel Jones and the Giants have not covered with Mike Glennon in the lineup.  Dallas is capable of repeating a blowout against the Giants here although they have failed to win by more than 10 points since that performance.  Still, the Cowboys are clearly a class ahead of anyone in the NFC East at the moment. 

Houston Texans @ Jacksonville Jaguars (-3) - One should expect the Jaguars to get a bounce from firing Urban Myer or at the very least giving more touches to James Robinson for unexplained reason was in Myer's doghouse.  

Tennessee Titans @ Pittsburgh Steelers (+2)-  The Steelers let a golden opportunity slip away from them with a loss against the Vikings not to mention some poor clock management by Chase Claypool who celebrated a first down during the Steeler's final drive.  While the Titans do boast a good record it may be hard for them to repeat the same formula of running the ball against them and one would think the Steelers will have a bounce back performance.

Arizona Cardinals @ Detroit Lions (+13.5) -  The Cardinals seem like the much better team but the spread here is just a little too big for my liking.

New York Jets @ Miami Dolphins (-8.5)- The Dolphins appear to be rolling with Tua under center as he finally living up to his draft hype.  The Jets have had pretty big upsets in the past such as games against the Bengals and Titans but those typically seem to come at home.

Carolina Panthers @ Buffalo Bills (-10.5)  - The Panthers just appear to be in chaos lately with Cam Newton under center.  Buffalo appears to have righted the ship in their loss against the Bucs.

Cincinnati Bengals (+1.5) @ Denver Broncos - The Broncos have typically punished their opponents at home but the upside of Terry Bridgewater has me taking the Bengals in a straight up win here.

Green Bay Packers (-5) @ Baltimore Ravens - With Lamar Jackson likely out, the Packers will attempt to keep pace for a potential first round bye.

Atlanta Falcons @ San Francisco 49ers (-8.5) - The 49ers will look to back on track against the Falcons who are still playing for a playoff spot.  While I wouldn't rule out an upset, Kyle Shanahan may intend to run up the core on his former team that has struggled on the road.  

New Orleans Saints (+10.5) @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers - Tom Brady is 0-3 against the Saints in the regular season - although Brady did beat the Saints in the playoffs.  And the last game came with Jameis Winston in the lineup.  Still, perhaps Taysom Hill and the Saints defense can do enough to keep this game in single digits.  

Las Vegas Raiders (+6) @ Cleveland Browns - Due to Covid absences for the Brown, the Raiders will have an opportunity to get an upset although without Waller, the Raiders are still not a great team.

Seattle Seahawks (+6.5) @ Los Angeles Rams - Due to the Covid absences for the Seattle one would expect the Seahawks to do enough to keep it close in a must win game for Seattle.

Washington Football Team @ Philadelphia Eagles (-4.5) (LOCK) - Given that Washington will not have any of their top 3 quarterbacks, one should expect the Eagles to roll against their division rival.  

Minnesota Vikings (-3.5) @ Chicago Bears - The Vikings appear to have righted the ship a bit and look to continue that against a Bears team which has actually found its offense the last few weeks.  

 Week 13 against the Spread - 9-5

Week 13 Straight Up- 10-4

2021 Against the Spread- 102-101

2021 Straight Up- 113-80-1

2021 Locks - 9-5

2020 Against the Spread- 124-140-6

2020 Week Straight Up - 173-97-1

2020 Locks- 24-24-2

2019 Season Against the Spread- 128-113-3

2019 Season Straight Up- 158-103

2019 Locks - 21-19-2

2020 Postseason against the Spread- 8-3

2020 Postseason Straight Up- 7-4

2018 Season against the Spread- 112-107-7

2018 Season Straight Up- 137-86-2

2018 Locks- 21-16-2

2017-18 Against the Spread- 121-125-7

2017-18 Season Straight Up - 167-92

2016-17 Against the Spread - 141-115-7

2016-17 Straight Up - 101-41

2015-16 Against the Spread - 140-110 

2021 Week 14 Picks

Dallas flew in its benches for todays game against Washington today

New Orleans Saints (-5.5) @ New York Jets - Taysom Hill has struggled with an injured throwing hand but the Saints do get Alvin Kamara back.  Zach Wilson has been up and down all season.

Atlanta Falcons (+3) @ Carolina Panthers  - Carolina did manage to beat the Falcons earlier this season. Although the Panthers have 1 out of 4 games since.  Cam Newton hasn't come through as the starter.

Seattle Seahawks (-7.5) @ Houston Texans - Seattle has appeared to righted the ship.  Houston's leading rusher is still Mark Ingram at 294 yards even though he was traded a month ago.

Las Vegas Raiders @ Kansas City Chiefs (-9.5) - The Chiefs blew out the Raiders the last time they played and the Raiders are also dealing with injurie to their best downfield target in Darren Waller not to mention that their backfield is banged up with injuries.  The Raiders have shown flashes of competence but ultimately have struggled since Jon Gruden's scandal emerged.  

Baltimore Ravens (-2.5) @ Cleveland Browns - The Ravens do seem to have the number of their division rival although the Browns have done a good job containing the Ravens in the last game.  The Ravens attempt to keep pace with the Patriots while the Browns keep what little chance they have for a postseason.  

Dallas Cowboys @ Washington Football Team(+4)-  Washington comes into this game having won 4 straight games.  Still, hard to determine how much of it is real or how much was padded by a relative easy portion of the schedule.   The Buccaneers are obviously a quality team but the same can't be said for the Panthers, Raiders, and Seattle.  Dallas has had some shaky losses this season, albeit a few of them due to CoVid protocol.  Still one would expect this game against their division rival to be close and perhaps Washington can come away with a split.  Ron Rivera is looking to improve his 4-1 record against Dallas, with two of those wins dating back to when he coached the Carolina Panthers.

Jacksonville Jaguars (+9.5) @ Tennessee Titans - The Titans are coming off a bye meaning they should likely pull out a win.  Still, it won't be the romping that one should expect if they had Derrick Henry in the lineup, although they should get a boost from Julio Jones returning from the injured reserve.  

Detroit Lions (+8) @ Denver Broncos - The Broncos are looking to follow the roamap of holding their opponents to under 20 points and completing a victory.   Still the Broncos have two blowout losses at home against the Eagles.  The Lions last 4 games have been decided by 3 points or less and are 5-1 against the spread in their last 6.   

New York Giants @ Los Angeles Chargers (-10.5)-  The Giants do get a few wide receivers back.  And the Chargers will be missing Keenan Allen.  Still, the Chargers should take care of business against the Giants.  

San Francisco 49ers (+1) @ Cincinnati Bengals-  This could be a good back and forth game.  With Deebo Samuels return to the lineup could ultimately give the 49ers the edge although one can't ignore the possibility of Burrows going ham.  Although the 49ers defense should be looking to redeem itself after a poor performance against Seattle.  

Buffalo Bills @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-3) - Is this a get right game for the Bills who really struggled due to the weather conditions?  Tom Brady may be motivated to put it on Bufalo given how tthe Pats just beat the Bills and Brady may want to prove something to his former team.   Tampa Bay's secondary may not be able to contain the Bills although the Bucs seem like an unstoppable force if Leonard Fournette can get it going like he did his Jacksonville days.

Chicago Bears @ Green Bay Packers(-12.5)- Green Bay's defense should feast on Justin Fields.  ONly thing that worries me is if the Packers don't play up to the potential.  Coming off a bye, the Packers should be able to contain 

Los Angeles Rams @ Arizona Cardinals (-3)- Very much a toss up game although I have the Cardinals has slight favorites to win given the Rams struggles as of late.  A win against Jacksonville still hasn't made me extremely confident that they have completely righted the ship.  They will also be without Darrell Henderson although Sony Michel did fill in admirably last week.  

 Week 13 against the Spread - 8-5

Week 13 Straight Up- 10-3

2021 Against the Spread- 93-96

2021 Straight Up- 115-78-1

2021 Locks - 9-5

2020 Against the Spread- 124-140-6

2020 Week Straight Up - 173-97-1

2020 Locks- 24-24-2

2019 Season Against the Spread- 128-113-3

2019 Season Straight Up- 158-103

2019 Locks - 21-19-2

2020 Postseason against the Spread- 8-3

2020 Postseason Straight Up- 7-4

2018 Season against the Spread- 112-107-7

2018 Season Straight Up- 137-86-2

2018 Locks- 21-16-2

2017-18 Against the Spread- 121-125-7

2017-18 Season Straight Up - 167-92

2016-17 Against the Spread - 141-115-7

2016-17 Straight Up - 101-41

2015-16 Against the Spread - 140-110 

2021 Week 13 Picks

 

Sources say Big Ben will retire after this season.  Mason Rudolph and Dwayne Haskins don't expire confidence as future replacements.  

Miami Dolphins (-3)(LOCK) @ New York Giants - With Daniel Jones out, the Dolphins should continue their good play.

Indianapolis Colts (-9) @ Houston Texans  - Look for the Colts to bounce back after a bad loss last week.  The Texans defense may struggle to contain Jonathan Taylor and will be without David Johnson.

Minnesota Vikings (-7) @ Detroit Lions - The Vikings blew out the Lions last time around without Dalvin Cook and look to repeat the same formula again in a must in game.

Philadelphia Eagles @ New York Jets (+6.5) - With Jalen Hurts out, maybe there's a chance the Jets can keep it close.

Arizona Cardinals (-7.5) @ Chicago Bears -  Kyler Murray and DeAndre Hopkins return.  The Bears have been a bit too inconsistent on offense.   

Los Angeles Chargers (+3) @ Cincinnati Bengals - This is certainly a toss up game with both teams eyeing a playoff spot.  Both teams have have pretty good quarterbacks although Herbert has been a bit more consistent this season that Joe Burrow plus Austin Eckler has had a pro bowl caliber season. 

Jacksonville Jaguars (+13) @ Los Angeles Rams - The Rams could potentially pile it on although perhaps the Jaguars can do enough to keep it close.  Both teams were after all both blown out by the 49ers.  A potential for a blow out always looms large when the Jagaurs play as they are 0-3 against the NFC West with 3 double digit losses.  Still, Stafford is a bit banged up and Darrell Henderson is unlikely to play which give the Jaguars the chance to play spoilers again.  S

Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Atlanta Falcons (+11) - Perhaps the Falcons can make a game of it against their division rival at home. Patterson would need to have a decent game as the Falcons manage to cover when he's been in the lineup.  

Washington Football Team (+2.5) @ Las Vegas Raiders - Landon Collins is out for Washington while the Raiders will be without the services of Darren Waller.  These teams contrast heavily in styles as Washington has established running the ball more, while the Raiders are a pass happy team.  If Washington's secondary can hold up which it has the past 3 weeks without Chase Young, perhaps Washington can keep their winning streak alive.

San Francisco 49ers (-3) @ Seattle Seahawks - Russell Wilson doesn't look 100% yet largely due to the running game not being good since Chris Carson has been out of the lineup.  The Seahawks will try to save their season with Adrian Peterson in the backfield.  However, this doesn't seem to be the week for the Seahawks to get back on track as the 49ers have been rolling over opponents.

Pittsburgh Steelers (+3.5) @ Baltimore Ravens - The Steelers always have good games against the Ravens who are dealing with several injuries.  The Steelers are hoping for a low scoring affair, although Justin Tucker could give the Ravens the edge if this game comes down to kicking.     

Denver Broncos @ Kansas City Chiefs (-10)- The Chiefs have covered the last few weeks due the revitalization of their defense.  Terry Bridgewater has struggled lately so I expect the Chiefs to do enough to take care of the Broncos who are coming off a win against the Chargers.  

New England Patriots @ Buffalo Bills (-3) - Big game between the two division rivals that always seem to come down to the wire.  Both teams have had equally soft schedules so they are pretty evenly matched.   Josh Allen has the edge over Mac Jones.  Perhaps Matt Breida can fill in for an injured Bills backfield.  I also like Diggs more than any offensive wideout that the Patriots have.  

 Week 12 against the Spread - 8-7

Week 12 Straight Up- 10-5

2021 Against the Spread- 85-91

2021 Straight Up- 105-75-1

2021 Locks - 8-5

2020 Against the Spread- 124-140-6

2020 Week Straight Up - 173-97-1

2020 Locks- 24-24-2

2019 Season Against the Spread- 128-113-3

2019 Season Straight Up- 158-103

2019 Locks - 21-19-2

2020 Postseason against the Spread- 8-3

2020 Postseason Straight Up- 7-4

2018 Season against the Spread- 112-107-7

2018 Season Straight Up- 137-86-2

2018 Locks- 21-16-2

2017-18 Against the Spread- 121-125-7

2017-18 Season Straight Up - 167-92

2016-17 Against the Spread - 141-115-7

2016-17 Straight Up - 101-41

2015-16 Against the Spread - 140-110