I was 18-11-1 and 3-1 for my locks for the 2020-21 season (adjusted win totals)
I was 16-14 and 3-3 for my locks for the 2019-20 season
I was 15-14-1 and 0-2 for my locks for the 2018/19 season
1. Utah Jazz - 53.5 OVER/UNDER - 56-26 (LOCK) - This team is great in the regular season but does seem to struggle immensely in the playoffs. Could they overcome their demons in the playoffs remains entirely possible especially this season with a few of their competitors most notably the Clippers and the Nuggets not having their supporting casts. Plus the Jazz may have gotten a steal with Jared Butler who could fill in some minutes for Conley if he gets injured. Interesting that Donovan Mitchell will play with Butler who played with Mitchell's younger brother last season.
Mikael Bridges agreed to a 4 year $90 million extension this offseason
2. Phoenix Suns - Over/Under- 52.5 - OVER - 55-37 (LOCK) - The Phoenix Suns have one of the best starting lineups in the NBA with 4 players who could earn a max contract on the open market. The Suns did lose in the finals but did lose closely and are still one of the best NBA teams. Chris Paul might decline a little but players like Booker, Ayton, and Bridges could be even better.
3. Golden State - O/U - 47.5 - OVER - 51-31- Golden State has added a number of good offseason additions including Otto Porter. Jordan Poole also looks like a legitimate player that can buy time until Klay Thompson returns. The rookies may not need to even play that much.
4. Los Angeles Lakers- O/U - 52.5 - UNDER 49-33 (LOCK) - The Lakers season was derailed largely due to nagging injuries to LeBron James and Anthony Davis. Instead of hoping for better fortune in terms for health, the Lakers decided to roll the dice by trading for Russell Westbrook. The Lakers are trying to repeat the 2020 formula of assembling an unlikely cast of characters to help them win a title. However, things could get murky in the regular season as LeBron James enters as one of the best 3 point shooters on the tam. Russell Westbrook also tends to struggle out of the gate. Perhaps the Lakers can put it together when it comes to a postseason run but they could struggle more in the Anthony Davis era due to lack of shooting
5. Denver Nuggets - O/U- 47.5- OVER- 49-33- The Nuggets were still a top four team in the West in the regular season even without Jamaal Murray. Jokic was a MVP caliber player an fill in the gaps for Murray at least during the regular season.
6. Dallas Mavericks - O/U - 48.5 - UNDER 48-34 - Perhaps Jason Kidd has learned from his mistakes last season although he's a slight coaching downgrade. This team will be a playoff team although perhaps Luka will not get as many calls as he did last season which could hurt them.
7. Memphis Grizzlies - O/U 40.5 - OVER - 44-38 - Ja Morant is still good enough to lead this team over .500 even with the downgrade of Jonas. Plus the Grizzlies typically draft well.
8. Los Angeles Clippers - O/U 45.5 - UNDER 44-38- Without Kawhi Leonard, the Clippers are certainly not near the top of the East. Still, the Clippers could make a playoff run given they made the Western Conference Finals with this group and actually pushed the Suns to a 6 game series.
9. Portland Trailblazers - O/U - 40.5- OVER - 42-40 - - The Blazers are still good enough to be solid in the regular season to make the playoffs. That being said, it seems unlikely that they will get to the 2nd round.
10. New Orleans Pelicans - O/U -39.5 UNDER - 34-48 (LOCK) -
Zion has reached 300 pounds this offseason
There is a world where Zion pulls it together but if he gets injured, the Pelicans could be one of the worst teams in the NBA. They did downgrade their point guard position in Lonzo Ball although Satoransky and Graham can fill in.
11. San Antonio Spurs - O/U - 28.5- OVER - 33-49 - The Spurs are clearly worse than previous season de to their talent but they didn't get that much worse last season and they won 33 wins last season in a shortened season.
12. Minnesota Timberwolves - O/U - 35.5 - UNDER - 28-54- Perhaps the odds betters are factoring that Anthony Edwards will take a big step forward but he could be in for a sophomore slump. Even his rookie season was not that great given that he was one of the most inefficient scorers in the league - somewhere in the neighborhood of Russell Westbrook. There is also the possibility that the Wolves end up trading Towns.
13. Sacramento Kings - O/U - 35.5 - UNDER- 28-54- I am intrigued by the Kings three point guard lineup of Fox, Mitchell, Halliburton. That being said, I'm not really sure they have enough quality bigs especially with Marvin Bagley being a non-factor.
14. Oklahoma City Thunder - Over/Under 23.5- UNDER - 22-60 - The Thunder exceeded expectations greatly last season even as one of the worst teams last season. However, the Thunder may have lot some veteran leadership in Al Horford and they also bought out Kemba Walker.
15. Houston Rockets - O/U - 27.5 - UNDER - 19-63 - The Rockets have some intriguing young talent. Still, have to imagine the Rockets will be playing for ping pong balls in the NBA draft since they have control of their draft pick this season.
EASTERN CONFERENCE
1. Milwaukee Bucks- O/U - 56.5 - OVER - 58-24 - Could they be primed to repeat? They are returning mostly the same core of players minus PJ tucker but get back Donte DiVincenzo who according John Hollinger is worth 25 million a season. That being said, perhaps players that seemed to shrink from big moment will play better and more free after winning the title.
James Harden on Steve Nash- "We're twins, just different colors"
2. Brooklyn Nets - O/U - 56.5 - OVER - 57-25- Kyrie boycotting the Nets due to the vaccine could hurt team in a potential championship quest but it's unlikely to hinder them out of one of the top spots in the conference due to the way Brooklyn plays. The Nets largely held it together when Durant, Harden, and Irving missed several games last season as the Nets were able to plug in play several options. Now the Nets add Patty Mills who should be effective in a Nets system as well as rookie Cameron Johnson. This is a high win total but I see someone in the East doing it. That being said, the Nets may need Irving to get vaccinated to make a run to the Finals.
3. Miami Heat - O/U - 48.5 - OVER 49-33 - They were the winners in the Kyle Lowry's sweepstakes. The addition of Kyle Lowry could give Miami the boost that they lacked last season. While Lowry could age poorly into his contract, he could be due for a bounce back year given that he was effective but rested last season. He could give an impact similar to what Chris Paul gave the Suns and the Thunder the last season. Plus Victor Oladipo could comeback healthy for them.
4. Philadelphia 76ers - O/U - 51 - UNDER - 48-34 - The Ben Simmons saga has enveloped the 76ers offseason. They missed out on Kyle Lowry in the offseason and the lack of a point guard in clutch situation still troubles them. They did manage to get Joel Embiid's pawn Andre Drummond although he's probably a downgrade over Dwight Howard. The 76ers fortune could change if they are able to trade Ben Simmons but as it stands now Ben Simmons has been practicing with sweatpants with his teammates and been checking his phone as his teammate completes his drill.
5. Atlanta Hawks - O/U - 47.5 - Over 48-34 - Atlanta could be due for a very good season after making the conference finals. Trae Young does lose his ability to hunt for fouls but the Hawks are still perhaps the deepest team in the league. Nate McMillan also seemed to reach this team as they played much better after the Lloyd Pierce firing. Someone like Kevin Heurter or Cam Reddish could step in make an impact.
6. New York Knicks - O/U - 41.5 - OVER - 45-37 - Many people are selling on the Knicks given how bad they looked in the postseason. Still, the Knicks appear to be one of the better teams in the regular season and added perimeter scorers like Evan Fournier and Kemba Walker. Young players like Barrett, Quickly, and Toppin could also bolster the Knicks depth. Plus there is a possibility the Knicks could make a midseason trade for Karl Anthony Towns, Damian Lillard, or Bradley Beal.
7. Charlotte Hornets - O/U 37.5 - OVER - 44-38 (LOCK) - The Hornets could be a very good team especially if Gordon Hayward is healthy LaMelo Ball looks to expand on his great rookie campaign.
8. Boston Celtics - O/U - 45.5 - UNDER - 43-39 - The Celtics did get Schroeder to salvage their offseason. Theoretically, Tatum could take another step coming off an Olympic run. Al Horford could be a welcome addition at center. That being said, their upside seems smaller without Kemba Walker, even if he was a shell of himself last season, and Brad Stevens leaving could be a coaching downgrade in the short term.
9. Indiana Pacers - O/U - 42.5 - OVER - 44-38 - Indiana could figure out with Rick Carlisle how to play better even with the big lineup with Indiana Pacers.
10. Washington Wizards O/U - 34.5 - OVER - 42-40 (LOCK) - Washington appears to have the most talented team around Beal since John Wall's NBA season in 2016-2017. Yes the Wizards lose Westbrook who is a gamer but the Wizards have a lot of opportunity to improve on his lack of 3 point shooting and their improved depth.
11. Chicago Bulls - O/U 43.5 - UNDER - 41-41- Perhaps the Bulls have improved enough at the point guard position with the addition of Lonzo Ball. I am more of fan of the Caruso signing than the addition of DeRozan. Still, I would like to see them compete
12. Toronto Raptors - O/U - 36.5 - UNDER - 35-47 - Toronto's roster is super interesting given that they added some nice pieces in the draft, they get to return home, and they could compete for a play-in game spot. Still, the Raptors centers could hold them back. Plus the Raptors could find themselves tanking for a pick like last season. Not to mention that Siakim is going to miss the beginning of the season.
13. Cleveland Cavaliers - O/U - 28.5 - UNDER - 27-55 - Cleveland did add Evan Mobley who could be the best player in the draft. That being said, it could be a while for that to translate into wins.
14- Orlando Magic - O/U 22.5 - UNDER- 22-60 - Orlando does have several young pieces that are mildly interesting. They need one to step up if they want to make a playoff run but it is also likely that this group of players can compete hard under Jamahl Mosley to at least not be the worst team in the NBA.
15- Detroit Pistons -O/U 24.5 - UNDER - 22-60- The Pistons did manage to add Cade Cunningham although time will tell if he's a franchise player out the gate.
