Week 13 Thursday Pick

Kirk Cousins is 0-3 against Dak Prescott

This is the first time they play without Ezekiel Elliot 

Washington (-1.5) @ Dallas - The loser is most likely eliminated for the playoffs in this divisional matchup, while the winner gets to keep their postseason hopes alive for at least for one more week.

Both teams are facing existential crises. The Redskins and their front office will ponder if Kirk Cousins is a top 10 quarterback and worth keeping as the highest paid quarterback.  The Cowboys may be second guessing letting Tony Romo walk into retirement as their offense has has sputtered without Ezekiel Elliot; scoring only two touchdowns in the past three weeks.

 Washington has little pity for Elliot's suspension as their top two running backs, Thompson and Kelly, are out with injuries.  Sameje Perine played well last week he rushed for over 100 yards against the Giants although ball control is still a concern.  Washington's offense should take advantage of the Cowboys' defense who has benched corner Anthony Brown and linebacker Sean Lee is still out with an injury.  While Alfred Morris may run the ball well against his former team, Washington has played well on the road in their last two games against the Seahawks and Saints.  And the Cowboys have been reeling 3 straight blowout losses.  I expect a closer game, but I have Washington winning.


You can find my picks on the Sports on the Hill Podcast, which begins at the  2 hour 12 minute mark.

Week 12 Picks

Cam Newton looks to eliminate the Jets from playoff contention

Carolina (-5.5) @ NY Jets - Carolina has won 3 straight and 4 of their past 5 road games.  The Jets have played their opponents tight at home but could struggle to put up points against the Panthers' defense led by Luke Kuechly.

Tennessee @ Indianapolis (+3.5) - The Titans did beat the Colts by double digits earlier this season but since then the Titans are 0-4 against the spread, mostly due to their defense being terrible.  Indianapolis appears to be playing well with an overtime loss to the Steelers and look to take advantage of Mariota who had 4 interceptions in his last game against Pittsburgh.

Tampa Bay @ Atlanta (-9.5) - Atlanta should win this one although the Bucs may keep it interesting with Ryan Fitzpatrick before losing by double digits.

Miami @ New England (-16.5) - New England's defense appears to have found its groove.  After giving up 30 or more points in 3 of their first 4 games, the Patriots have given no more than 17 points in their last 7 games.   The Dolphins are reeling after losing their past 4 games; 3 by double digits.  Miami does not appear to have the firepower to break through the Patriots' defense.

Chicago @ Philadelphia (-14) - The Eagles have demoralized their opponents including the 49ers, Broncos, and Cowboys.  The Bears have a more steady running game and defense than those teams but lack of a passing game leaves them susceptible to a blowout.

Buffalo (+10) @ Kansas City  - Kansas City has struggled lately including a loss to the lowly Giants but have a 3-1 record at home.  After the Peterman experiment failed with 5 interceptions in the first half against the Chargers, the Bills go back to Tyrod Taylor.  This should be a victory for the Chiefs although it could be within a touchdown.

Seattle @ San Francisco (+7) - The 49ers are coming off a bye and played the Seahawks to a 3 point loss on the road last time.  Maybe San Francisco is due for their first division at home against a Seattle team' whose secondary is decimated by injuries including losing Kam Chancellor and Richard Sherman.  Right now, I have Seattle winning the game by a small margin.

Denver (+5) @ Oakland - Oakland looks to get back on track against a struggling Denver team.  Expect a close game between division rivals, but Oakland should come out on top with a win.

New Orleans @ LA Rams (-2) - New Orleans played really well in their comeback against Washington but appear to be suffering with complacency after winning 7 games in a row.  The Rams did lose to the Vikings on the road but have not lost consecutive games this season.  The Saints will be without Marshon Lattimore and Ken Crawley.

Jacksonville (-5.5) @ Arizona - Jacksonville should take advantage of playing their former quarterback Blaine Gabbert.

Green Bay @ Pittsburgh (-14) - Green Bay's offense got exposed again without Aaron Rodgers and the Steelers will take advantge of it as they are still playing for homefield advantage throughout the playoffs with the Patriots looming.

Houston @ Baltimore (-7) - Houston's offense exploded for 31 points last time against the Cardinals but the Ravens defense appears to have found its mojo with their third shutout win of the season last week against the Packers.

Week 11 Picks Against the Spread - 1-2
Week 11 Picks Straight up - 2-1
2017-18 Against the Spread- 69-80-6
2017-18 Season Straight Up - 98-60
2016-17 Against the Spread - 141-115-7
2016-17 Straight Up - 101-41
2015-16 Against the Spread - 140-107

You can find my picks on the Sports on the Hill Podcast hosted by Robbie Gross
With Michael Edgley, Brian Brennan, Tim Clarke, Tavon Fennell,Louis Tenore, Daniel Evans, D.C.'s People's Champ - WCW (Ken Washington) and Mike Hoffman at the 2 hour mark.

Thanksgiving Edition Picks 2017

Stafford looks to improve 

the Lions 3-0 division record.

Minnesota @ Detroit (+2) - The Lions already beat the Vikings on the road in a game where Dalvin Cook got knocked out with a season ending injury and Minnesota struggled to put up 7 points.

LA Chargers @ Dallas- Playing on the road may help the Chargers since they are many Cowboys fans in LA.  For the past two weeks, the Cowboys have had blowout losses against the Falcon and the Eagles who have been without Ezekiel Elliot.  The Chargers are not in that tier one category but they have been knocking on the door with some close games against the Eagles and the Jaguars earlier in the season.  

NY Giants (+7) @ Washington - This could be a relatively close game against division rivals.  While Washington should edge out the Giants, they have not beaten the Giants by a touchdown or more since 2011.  The short week should hurt both teams equally given that the Giants only have to make a short commute from New York.

Week 11 Picks Against the Spread - 8-6
Week 11 Picks Straight up - 10-4
2017-18 Against the Spread- 68-78-6
2017-18 Season Straight Up - 96-59
2016-17 Against the Spread - 141-115-7
2016-17 Straight Up - 101-41
2015-16 Against the Spread - 140-107

Week 11 Picks 2017

Stafford is 7-1 in his last 8 games against the Bears

Detroit (-3) @ Chicago - The game could be close but the Lions with Stafford have shown more poise than the Bears whose offense is still a work in progress with Mitchell Trubisky.  The Lions already have road victories against division rivals including the Vikings and Packers this season.

Jacksonville (-7) @ Cleveland -

Blake Bortles' advice for DeShone Kizer: "Try to throw it to your team as much as possible." #Jaguars #Browns

— Mike Kaye (@mike_e_kaye) November 15, 2017

Cleveland has had some compelling games at home.  Still, the Jaguars' defense has been something else over the past few weeks and Cleveland's first win of the season is unlikely to come here.

Baltimore (-2.5) @ Green Bay - The Ravens are coming off a bye and get to look at the game film to take advantage of the inexperienced Brett Hundley.  The injury to Aaron Jones, another one of Green Bay's starting running backs, leaves the Packers even more shorthanded.

Arizona (-1.5) @ Houston -  In the battle of below average quarterbacks starring Blaine Gabbert and Tom Savage, the Cardinals boast the better run game and defense.

Tampa Bay @ Miami (-3) - The Dolphins face a familiar foe in Ryan Fitzpatrick who is 5-4 against the Dolphins but only 2-3 in Miami.

LA Rams (+2) @ Minnesota -

Case Keenum goes against his former team.

   It should be a compelling game but the Rams look like better team as they boast both a top 3 offense and top 3 defense.

Kansas City (-10) @ NY Giants - The Giants could struggle against the Eagles in what should be 12 point game.

Washington @ New Orleans (-9.5) - Washington's defensive line  has struggled against teams with good running games especially without Jonathan Allen.  The Saints defense is also a top 10 defense as Washington's could struggle due to the crowd noise

Buffalo (+7) @ LA Chargers -

Bills have benched Tyrod Taylor. Nathan Peterman will start.

— Mike Rodak (@mikerodak) November 15, 2017

After close losses to the Patriots and Jaguars, the Chargers are due for a bounce back game even if Buffalo Bills fans somehow invade the Los Angeles stadium.

Cincinnati (+3) @ Denver - The Broncos offense is terrible.  The Bengals offense is actually better than most give it credit for with a good receiving corp and a solid running game although having Andy Dalton at the helm always makes you nervous.

New England (-7) @ Oakland - The Patriots have been practicing at high altitude in Denver to prepare for the game in Mexico.  Even if that wasn't the case, the Patriots would still be favorites to win unless the officiating somehow favors the team that least supports Trump.

Philadelphia (-6) @ Dallas - Strange things can happen in rivalry games but the Eagles are coming off a bye against a Cowboys team that is still adapting to life without Ezekiel Elliot, and do not have a strong homefield advantage.

Atlanta (+3) @ Seattle -

BREAKING: The @Seahawks defense loses another key player. Per @MikeGarafolo, strong safety Kam Chancellor is likely done for the season. pic.twitter.com/QDQRYOWACB

— GMFB (@gmfb) November 18, 2017

Seattle's secondary is a mess without a few starters and could become problematic if Russell Wilson struggles to generate points because of a porous offensive line.    If the Falcons can put up some points they can sneak away with a win here.

Week 11 Picks Against the spread - 1-0
Week 11 Picks Straight up - 1-0
2017-18 Against the Spread- 61-72-6
2017-18 Season Straight Up - 87-55
2016-17 Against the Spread - 141-115-7
2016-17 Straight Up - 101-41
2015-16 Against the Spread - 140-107

You can also hear my picks here on the Sports on the Hill Podcast, hosted by Robbie Gross including Michael, Tim Clarke, Louis Tenore Daniel Evans, Ken Washington (D.C.'s People's Champ - WCW), and Mike Hoffman at the 2 hour mark.

Week 11 Thursday Night Game 2017

The Steelers defense has given up 

14.5 points per game over the last four weeks.

Tennessee @ Pittsburgh (-7)-  Last week, the Steelers barely put away a Colts team in overtime on the road.  That being said, the Titans may come up short due to being on road where they are 1-3 against the spread.  As a result of a short week, Tennessee may not have enough time to gameplan for Bell and Antonio Brown.

Week 10 Picks Against the spread - 5-8-1
Week 10 Picks Straight up - 8-6
2017-18 Against the Spread- 61-72-6
2017-18 Season Straight Up - 87-55
2016-17 Against the Spread - 141-115-7
2016-17 Straight Up - 101-41
2015-16 Against the Spread - 140-107

Week 10 Picks 2017

The Redskins will get back Trent Williams who

could have his hands full containing Everson Griffin 

who has 10 sacks this season (via Washington Post)  

Minnesota @ Washington (+1.5) - Jordan Reed is out so the Redskins will rely more heavily upon Jamison Crowder and Josh Doctson.  Washington could do a decent job containing the Vikings offense who had a surprising performance against Seattle.  Hopefully for Washington, the Redskins can limit turnovers as Cousins does have the most fumbles allowed by any player this season.

Green Bay @ Chicago (-5.5) - Things don't get easier for the Packers who are coming off a short week and the Bears are coming off a bye.   While Chicago's offense has not been explosive, the Packers' defense may have trouble containing the Bears running attacking including Josh Howard, Tarik Cohen, and even the scrambling QB rushes by Mitchell Trubisky.

Pittsburgh (-10) @ Indianapolis - Pittsburgh is coming off a bye and looks to advantage of the Colts that have not won consecutive games this season.

LA Chargers @ Jacksonville (-5) - The Jaguars have taken care of business over the past few weeks without Leonard Fournette and now get him back.  Philip Rivers is still a savvy quarterback but may struggle to put together a good game against a stifling Jacksonville defense.

NY Jets (-2) @ Tampa Bay- Ryan Fitzpatrick goes against his former team but Tampa Bay will be without their best wide receiver Mike Evans.  One would expect the Jets defense to effectively game plan for Fitzpatrick's strengths and weaknesses.  Josh McCown is also is playing against one of his many former teams.

Cincinnati (+5.5) @ Tennessee - Look for the Titans to take care of business against two AFC North teams in successive weeks who have won each of their past two games by a field goal.

New Orleans @ Buffalo (+3)  - Cold weather could be a factor in this one as Buffalo has not lost a game at home this season not have they lost consecutive games.   The Bills should receive a boost in their passing game with the addition of Kelvin Benjamin and the the return of Charles Clay after weeks of being sidelined.

Cleveland @ Detroit (-11) - The Lions have taken care of business against inferior opponents including double digits wins against the Giants, Cardinals, and Packers.

Houston @ LA Rams(-12) - The Rams are currently on a 3 game winnings streak of double digit wins.  The Texans offense appears to be a mess without DeShaun Watson and Houston's defense is still prone to give up big scoring outburst.

Dallas (+3.5) @ Atlanta - Dallas's defense did a good job containing the Chiefs' offense last week and look to apply a similar formula to the Falcons who have struggled with their play calling all season.  Dallas has an interesting mix of running backs including Darren McFadden and Alfred Morris without Elliot in the lineup.

NY Giants (-2.5) @ San Francisco - The Giants may come away with a win due their defense, although things could get ugly if their players decide not to show up and play for their head coach Ben McAdoo.

New England (-7) @ Denver - Brady's struggles at Denver have been noted including a 2-7 record but Tom Brady has had time to prepare for this Sunday night performance as the Patriots are coming off a bye against a reeling Broncos' team.

Miami (+9) @ Carolina  - Jay Cutler quietly had his first game with over 300 yards, 3 TDs, and 0 interceptions in a loss to the Raiders.  Still, Carolina has a much better defense with Kuchley back in the lineup.  Look for the Panthers to win by a touchdown.

You can hear my picks at the 2 hour mark on Sport on the Hill Podcast hosted by Robbie Gross, Daniel Evans, Paul Smith Mike Hoffman and Ken Washington (D.C.'s People's Champ - WCW.

Week 10 Picks Against the spread - 0-0-1
Week 9 Picks Straight up - 1-0
2017-18 Against the Spread- 56-64-5
2017-18 Season Straight Up - 79-49
2016-17 Against the Spread- 141-115-7
2016-17 Straight Up = 101-41
2015-16 Against the Spread 140-107

Week 10 Thursday Night Pick 2017

Adrian Peterson carried the ball 37 times 

against the 49ers last week.  Expect that trend to continue tonight.

(via azcardinals.com)

Seattle (-6) @ Arizona - The Seahawks suffered a bad loss against the Redskins and look to regroup  against Drew Stanton who is 10-5-1 against the spread in his career.  That being said, Seattle's defense should be motivated to come up against a Cardinals' QB who has only completed 45 percent of his passes in his career.   Seattle has won its last 8 games coming off losses and have won their last 4 Thursday Night football games. 

Week 9 Picks Against the spread - 5-7
Week 9 Picks Straight up - 6-6
2017-18 Against the Spread- 56-64-4
2017-18 Season Straight Up - 78-49
2016-17 Against the Spread- 141-115-7
2016-17 Straight Up = 101-41
2015-16 Against the Spread 140-107

2017-18 Week 9 Picks

Look for Shady McCoy to have a big game

against a team that he has given nightmares

Buffalo (-3) @ NY Jets - Buffalo appears to be the better team on both sides of the ball.  The Bills played fairly well against Oakland last week and look to slow down Josh McCown.

Indianapolis @ Houston (-7) - DeShaun Watson has been great although the Texans defense has struggled due to a few key injuries to their defensive line.  The Colts early season formula for success has been scouted out as head coach Chuck Pagano is on the hot seat.

Tampa Bay @ New Orleans (-7) - Jameis Winston has struggled mightily against Carolina and look for that trend to continue against another division rival on the road.  While Drew Brees didn't throw a touchdown last week, the Saints dual running attack of Ingram and Kamara has been getting it done behind a surprisingly decent Saints defense.  Plus Willie Snead is returning to the fold which could increase the explosiveness of the Saints offense.

LA Rams (-3.5) @ NY Giants - Both teams are coming off byes but the Rams have a much better offense.  Goff has been fairly consistent with only 1 interception in his past 4 games.

Atlanta @ Carolina (-1) - Both teams have been up and down this season.  Luc Kuechly should be back which should give the Panthers a boost but will be without Kelvin Benjamin.  Still, Atlanta has been pretty inconsistent this season with losses to Buffalo and Miami. They have not been the same team offensively that managed to sweep the Panthers back in 2016 and could struggle on the road.

Denver @ Philadelphia (-7.5)- Carson Wentz faces a much tougher test defensively but the Eagles should take advantage of a sub-par offense from the Broncos .

Baltimore  @ Tennessee (-3.5) - Marcus Mariota appears to have regained his mobility and should be much sharper at home to propel the Titans to victory.  The Ravens did have a nice offensive outburst against the Dolphins but are still an up and down team.

Arizona @ San Francisco (+2) - San Francisco may be in line to get its first win of the season against a team without Carson Palmer and David Johnson.  Drew Stanton has not been as good as his 6-3 record as a starter would indicate as he has only completed around 40% of his passes and had only had 2 touchdowns and 6 interceptions in his last 13 appearances.

Washington @ Seattle (-7) - While Seattle gave up 38 points last week against the Texans, it remains to be seen if Washington can muster that much firepower due to a banged up offensive line and questionable quarterback play from Captain Kirk.  The last time Washington beat Seattle on road was in 2008 but it seems unlikely that this Washington defense can hold Seattle to only 17 points which exploded for 41 points against the Texans last week.

Kansas City @ Dallas - The Cowboys will be without Ezekiel Elliot.  Perhaps Dallas can get something out of Alfred Morris and Darren McFadden but the Cowboys defense will have a tough time containing Alex Smith and Kareem Hunt.

Oakland @ Miami (+3) - Both teams suffered bad losses on the road.   Jay Cutler returns and does not inspire much confidence and the Dolphins traded their top running back .  Still, the Dolphins defense has been pretty good at home in Miami which is a big reason the Dolphins are somehow over .500.

Detroit (-2.5) @ Green Bay - Green Bay is coming off a bye.  That being said, Brett Hundley still has not shown that he is a consistent quarterback with only 1 touchdown and 4 interceptions.  The Lions have struggled at Lambeau but I am still expecting Stafford to lead the Lions to a victory.

Week 8 Picks Against the spread - 7-6
Week 8 Picks Straight up - 9-4
2017-18 Against the Spread- 51-57-4
2017-18 Season Straight Up - 72-43
2016-17 Against the Spread- 141-115-7
2016-17 Straight Up = 101-41
2015-16 Against the Spread 140-107

You can also find my picks on the Sports on the Hill Podcast, hosted by Robbie Gross.   Louis Tenore, Daniel Evans, Ken Washington Paul Smith and Bryan Carr also make their picks at the 9 hour mark.