I was 18-12 and 4-3 for my locks for the 2015-16 season.
I was 16-13-1 and 4-1 in my locks for the 2014-15 season.
Eastern Conference
1. Cleveland Cavaliers (O/U- 53.5) (Projected Record- 54-28- OVER)-
I suppose the Cavs may go through a bit of an adjustment period without Kyrie Irving and Richard Jefferson. At the same time, Cleveland should receive a boost from the additions of Jae Crowder, Dwayne Wade, and Derrick Rose and be poised to make a good 2nd half run if Isaiah Thomas can return healthy from a hip injury.
2. Boston Celtics (O/U- 55.5) (Projected record 53-29- UNDER)- The Celtics overall have more talent than they had last season. Still, I would be concerned about chemistry issues given that the Celtics have lost 4 of their past 5 starters from last season. It remains unclear how the team's defense will fare without Avery Bradley and Crowder. Bradley was one of the best perimeter defenders in the league. Crowder's defense took a step back but he was still an above average defender who knocked down shots at a efficient rate. Still, I expect their roster to round into shape considering that Brown could improve in his sophomore season. Marcus Morris could give some much needed toughness off the defensive end. And of course the young Jason Tatum should be a solid contributor once the Celtics enter the postseason
3. Washington Wizards (O/U- 48) (Projected record- 49-33 - OVER) -
Washington chemistry seemed to improve
after the Wizards defeated the Celtics
in the funeral game
The Wizards largely bring back the same group of players including a starting 5 which was one of the best in the league last season. John Wall is in great shape. Bradley Beal looks to make the all star team especially since he was snubbed last season and also makes his case as the best shooting guard in the East over DeMar DeRozan. I suspect that the Wizards will be justified by giving Otto Porter a max contract. He was certainly more deserving of Beal of getting one at the end of his rookie contract and has shown improvement in his ability to create a shot in the preseason.
4. Toronto Raptors (O/U -47.5) (Projected Record- 48-34- OVER)- Toronto still has a scary backcourt of Lowry and DeRozan that does get it done in the regular season. While the Raptors lost a few players including Patterson, Joseph, Tucker, and Carroll, the Raptors appear to have quite a few young players in the pipeline that could fill in the gaps including Norman Powell, Delon Wright, and 2017 first round pick OG Anunoby. The Raptors also acquired CJ Miles who is a viable small forward and potential stretch four if the Raptors decide to go small.
5. Miami Heat (O/U - 43.5) (Projected Record - 46-36- OVER) - Miami really came on track as one of the best teams in the Eastern Conference after the all star break. To complement Dragic and Whiteside, the Heat retained Dion Waiters and James Johnson and acquired Kelly Olynyk who should help create some interesting small ball bench lineups. While Miami's upside for a deep playoff run is limited in years to come for cap reasons, the Heat could at least entertain the possibility of competing for the Southeast division title.
6. Milwaukee Bucks (O/U- 47.5) (Projected Record 46-36- UNDER)- The Bucks should improve simply because Giannis is a stud and could be the torch bearer of the Eastern Conference once LeBron declines. Still, the Bucks appear to limited a bit since Jabari Parker will miss a large portion of the season due to him have his 2nd surgery in 18 months. Kris Middleton still had not regained his form towards the end of the 2016-17 season. The Bucks still have been unable to manufacture consistent outside shooting which is vital in today's NBA.
7. Charlotte Hornets (O/U- 42.5) (Projected Record 43-39 - OVER) - The Hornets were 3-17 without starting center Cody Zeller and have now addressed their biggest position of need. Charlotte essentially added Dwight Howard for nothing. They also have interesting young rookies in Malik Monk and Dwayne Bacon to pair with all star point guard Kemba Walker. Perhaps the Hornets can get some improvement from young guys on the roster like Frank Kaminsky and Michael Kidd Gilchrist to bolster their rotation.
8. Philadelphia 76ers (O/U 42- Projected Record 41-41- UNDER )-
Embiid stats against the Nets
22 points, 7 rebounds, 3 assists, 1 block
in 14 minutes and 45 seconds
Philadelphia should leap frog many Eastern Conference teams as a potential playoff team with two number one picks playing in their rookie seasons including Ben Simmons and Markelle Fultz. Joel Embiid not only has a great personality but puts ups all star numbers when he can remain on the court. JJ Reddick as a one year mercenary should boost the 76ers in the playoff position. That being said, they are still very young and could struggle and make mental mistakes over the course of an 82 game season and they also have to reckon with possible injury concerns.
9. Detroit Pistons (O/U 38.5) Projected Record 36-46- UNDER) - Detroit did acquire Avery Bradley but also lost Marcus Morris, and Kantavious Caldwell Pope. While Reggie Jackson should be healthy, the Pistons are not well suited to be competitive going forward with Andre Drummond and may look to tear it down midseason.
10. Indiana Pacers (O/U 31.5) Projected Record 32-50- OVER)- Indiana gave away Paul George although I do like some of the pieces of team especially Myles Turner. I expect Victor Oladipo will do better without Russell Westbrook, although still not enough to warrant the $20 million he is making per season for the next three years.
11. New York Knicks (O/U 30.5 Projected Record 30-52- UNDER) - Some of the Knicks may play better without Melo including Porzingus. However, the Knicks point guard situation appears to be a mess with Sessions and Jarret Jack.
12. Orlando Magic (O/U 24 Projected Record 29-53- UNDER-LOCK)- Orlando adds a few interesting pieces including Jonathan Issac and Johnathan Simmons. They have a lot of talent but designed for a different era with big guys and no guys that spread the floor.
13. Atlanta Hawks (O/U 25, Projected Record 26-56- OVER)- While the Hawks lose a lot of talent including all star forward Paul Milsap and Tim Hardaway Jr., the Hawks have played well enough in the regular season to give teams trouble including defeating the Cavaliers with none of their starters on the floor. I expect Taurean Prince to also improve significantly within the confines of the Hawks team basketball offense.
14. Brooklyn Nets (Over Under-27 wins), Projected Record 26-55- UNDER) - The Nets do lose Brook Lopez but they do add DeAngelo Russell, Demarre Carroll and look to have a healthy Jeremy Lin. The Nets have no incentive to tank but will struggle to defend big men down low with just Mozgov.
15. Chicago Bulls (O/U 22) Projected Record 17-65- UNDER - LOCK)
The Bull essentially got ripped off in the Jimmy Butler trade. Zach Lavine still is not healthy and Kris Dunn is coming off a poor season. Their first rounder Lauri Markkanen is a project. While the Bulls have decent frontcourt players in Mirotic, Portis, and Robin Lopez, Chicago may look to move one especially if they find themselves in a tanking position.
WESTERN CONFERENCE
1. Golden State Warriors (O/U 67.5- Projected Record 71-11- OVER- LOCK) -
Draymond Green: "They (Cavs) didn't stand a f##king chance.
It pissed me off we didn't sweep them though." GQ
Golden State is more likely to be better in the regular season with Durant being well adjusted within the offense. Steph Curry and Klay Thompson also have room for improvement to go back to their 2015-16 numbers. The Warriors bench may also have gotten better with the additions of Nick Young, Omri Casspi, and Jordan Bell. The Warriors are easy favorites to win it all again.
2. Houston Rockets (O/U 55, Projected Record 58-24- OVER- LOCK) - Chris Paul is getting older but he should have a career season in D'Antoni offense. The Rockets are good enough to beat most teams in the regular season, and their weaknesses like defending more perimeter oriented teams may not be taken advantage of until they play a team like Golden State or well coached one like San Antonio.
3. San Antonio Spurs (O/U 54.5, Projected Record 55-27- OVER)- The Spurs may be without Kawhi Leonard for a portion of the seasons and lost Jonathan Simmons in free agency. Still, the Spurs have thrived without Leonard last year including beating the Rockets in the 2nd round. The Spurs should manage to be elite once Leonard returns back especially with Pop as the head coach.
4. Oklahoma City Thunder (O/U- 52, Projected Record 53-50- OVER) -
Steven Adams on OKC's offeseason
The Thunder essentially add Paul George and Carmelo Anthony while nonessential players like Victor Oladipo and Enes Kanter. While Westbrook may not be as great as he was during his MVP season, I believe that head coach Billy Donovan will effectively be able to integrate George and Anthony in the lineup. Plus the Thunder signed Patrick Patterson which will help create even more spacing for OKC's offense.
5. Denver Nuggets (O/U- 45.5, Projected Record 47-35- OVER) - Nicola Jokic is a triple double machine which helps alleviate the Nugget's weakness at the point guard position. Millsap is still an all star caliber player and looks to be better than ever coming off his postseason performance against the Washington Wizards. And the Nuggets deep roster including Gary Harris, Will Barton, and Jamal Murray should take advantage of their mile high homecourt advantage.
6. Minnesota Timberwolves (O/U-48.5, Projected Record 45-37- UNDER) - The Timberwolves add a few former Bulls in Jimmy Butler and Taj Gibson. However, it may take a while for the team to gel considering that Butler and Wiggins have well rounded but redundant skills who are not great 3 point shooters. Minnesota still has to straighten out its defense considering both Towns and Wiggins are below average defenders and the Minnesota lost its best defender in Ricky Rubio.
7. LA Clippers (O/U 43.5 - 44-38- OVER) - While the Clippers lose Chris Paul, they may have the deepest team that they have had in recent years with a number of capable point guards including Patrick Beverly, Lou Williams and Milos Teodosic. Blake Griffin and Danillo Galinari staying healthy is a concern but can the Clippers can make up for their absenece with someone like Sam Dekker.
8. Portland Trail Blazers (O/U 42.5 - 43-39 - OVER) - Like San Antonio, Portland may be getting underrated a bit since they were absolutely demolished by Golden State in the postseason. Once Nurkic returns to the lineup, Portland was a more than capable team. Their path to improve to a top 4 position is limited given the improvement of some of the top teams in the Western Conference.
9. Utah Jazz (O/U 41, Projected Record 42-40 - OVER) - Utah lost Gordon Hayward and George Hill but could still battle for a playoff spot with the addition of Ricky Rubio and the ability to retain Joe Ingles. Rodney Hood could play better with more playing time. Rudy Gobert should keep Utah elite defensively
10. Memphis (O/U 37, Projected Record- 39-43- OVER)- Memphis may have lost a few veterans especially Zach Randolph, Vince Carter, and Tony Allen but they still managed to keep their best two players in Mike Conley and Marc Gasol. If the Grizzlies actually get something from Chandler Parsons, the Grizzlies could exceed some experts' expectations.
11. New Orleans Pelicans (O/U 39.5, 35-47- UNDER- LOCK)- This New Orleans team did not play especially well with the addition of Boogie Cousins and still have work to do to integrate him with Anthony Davis. Moreover, the Pelicans at the wings are thin and lack outside shooting. There are still concerns if Jrue Holiday can stay healthy and if Rondo can play consistently throughout an 82 game season.
12. Dallas Mavericks (O/U 34.5, 35-47- OVER) - Dallas did add a nice rookie in Dennis Smith and Dirk should play well as a small ball center assuming that father time does not get the best of him. Questions still remain if Harrison Barnes can be an efficient and effective player. At the end of the day, Rick Carlise is an excellent coach and should be able to get the most out of this group.
13. LA Lakers (O/U 33.4, 34-48- OVER)- The Lakers have a lot interesting young talented pieces including a pass first point guard in Lonzo Ball, first rounders Kyle Kuzma and Josh Hart, not to mention second year player Brandon Ingram who could stand to improve. Luke Walon appears to have this team going in the right direction although it still doesn't look likely that they will make the playoffs.
14. Sacramento Kings (O/U- Projected Record 28-54- OVER)- Sacramento will take a step back with the loss of Cousins and Collison but do add a weird mix of veterans including George Hill, Zach Randolph, and Vince Carter. With the drafting of De'Aaron Fox, the Kings should be good enough to be the fifth worst teams in the NBA.
15. Phoenix Suns (O/U-29- Projected Record- 27-55- UNDER)- Phoenix will improve slightly from last season with the addition of Josh Jackson. Devin Booker could take step forward and the Suns have a few interesting young pieces including Dragan Bender and Marquese Chriss but appear to be a couple years a way from making the Suns competitive.
