Conference Championship Picks

The 4 QBs playing today?

They're the 4 winningest QBs in the NFL since 2008. pic.twitter.com/ATEZ4gD2uX

— NFL (@NFL) January 22, 2017

Aaron Rodgers: 0-35 when trailing by more than 1 point in 4th quarter against teams with a winning record https://t.co/pknLS0XQkC

— Scott Kacsmar (@FO_ScottKacsmar) January 21, 2017

Green Bay (+6) @ Atlanta-

Aaron Rodgers is 5 for 8 on passes over 30
yards in the final minute of play.  The rest of the league is 4 of 44.

I have the Falcons winning.  Nonetheless, Aaron Rodgers has been very sharp and could keep it close in what should be a high scoring affair..

The Packers defense had its moments against Dak Prescott forcing a few interceptions.  That being said, Matt Ryan and Julio Jones look to exploit the Packers' secondary plus the Facons' running game is also strong.  

While the Falcons will have their hands full with Aaron Rodgers, Atlanta's defense was solid against Seattle.  After giving up a game opening TD drive, the Falcons defense settled in and forced a few interceptions and a safety.  Overall, Atlanta's defense should also receive a boost from being at home in what will be the final game at the Georgia Dome.

Pittsburgh @ New England (-6)-

On @WEEI, Belichick asked about Tomlin's a-hole comment: "As you know I'm not on Snapface and all that so I don't really get those."

— Phil Perry (@PhilAPerry) January 16, 2017

The Patriots are now 15-0 with Dion Lewis in the lineup and look to continue that trend versus the Steelers.  Big Ben did struggle especially in the red zone versus the Chiefs and the Steelers' defense did show that they were vulnerable to the deep ball against the Chiefs.  While Alex Smith was unable to take advantage due to a few inaccurate throws and key drops, that should not be the case for Tom Brady.  The Patriots lack of a pass rush is a concern and their strength of schedule throughout the season has been fairly weak.  Still, these are the games that New England typically wins which are at home and against Pittsburgh in what has largely been a one side rivalry since Tom Brady has joined the Patriots.

My picks can also be found on the Sports on the Hill Podcast at the 1 hour 30 minute mark.

Division Picks against the spread: 3-1
Wild Card Picks straight up: 4-0
2016-17 Season: 140-114-7
Straight up(since week 9)- 99-45

Division picks

My picks can also be found on the Sports on the Hill Podcast at the 1 hour 27:15 minute mark.

Seattle @ Atlanta (-6.5) - 

Ryan and Wilson face off for the 2nd time in the postseason they last met in 2013 when Ryan and the Falcons defeated the Seahawks in the division playoff round

The Falcons and the Seahawks played in the regular season in what turned out to be a nail biting 26-24 victory for the Seahawks.  Since then, Seattle's defense has struggled immensely since losing Earl Thomas for the season.  Kyle Shanahan's offense with Matt Ryan, Julio Jones, and Devonta Freeman look to exploit that weakness.    While I have Atlanta winning, it could be a close game given that Seattle has been running the ball well with Thomas Rawls and Atlanta's defense can be exploited given their weak secondary.  

The Steelers defense looks to pressure Alex Smith

Pittsburgh (+1) @ Kansas City -  Pittsburgh matched up well with the Chiefs in a 43-14 blowout in the beginning of the season.  This game should be closer, especially since the Chiefs are coming off a bye and are at home, although that advantage could be diminished since Pittsburgh fans travel well.  This game should favor the Steelers given that they have the superior running game with LeVeon Bell.  While Pittsburgh is not as good defensively as Kansas City, they do present problems for the Chiefs given that quarterback Alex Smith has struggled against the defensive packages that exposes Smith's lack of arm strength.  

 

Osweiler did beat the Patriots when he was with the Broncos in 2015

Houston @ New England (-16) - The Texans lost to the Patriots 27-0 in Week 3 and this game does not look any easier for the road team.  While Houston is looking to make up for a poor performance, the odds may be stacked against them given that it is in a cold weather.  New England will be playing with Tom Brady and Dion Lewis who did not play in Week 3.

Aaron Rodgers is looking to get revenge against the Cowboys after Green Bay lost 30-16 to Dallas  earlier this season

Green Bay (+5) @ Dallas  - While Green Bay's win was impressive against the Giants, they did it largely against a Giants team that had bad turnovers and could not run the ball and had a poor scoring differential.  Still, the Packers are on fire offensively as Aaron Rodgers is completing Hail Mary plays as routine ones.  If Rodgers is sharp, the Packers could expose the Cowboys secondary.  The key of course will be for the Packers to contain Ezekiel Elliot and force Prescott into a few bad decisions.  The Packers also should not forget about Dez Bryant who is looking to get revenge against the Packers after a controversial call that caused the Cowboys to lose to the Packers in 2015 postseason.

Wild Card Picks against the Spread: 2-2
Wild Card Picks Straight Up: 4-0
2016-17 Season: 137-113-7
Straight Up(since week 9): 95-45

Wild Card Picks

My picks can also be found on the Sports on the Hill Podcast at the 1 hour 47 minute mark.

Jadeveon Clowney hopes to pressure the Raiders' offense 

who was just named to 2nd team All-Pro alongwith

linebacker Benardrick McKinney

Oakland @ Houston (-3.5) - ESPN is paying $100 million to air this game but could lose a total of $75 million because of the lack of ratings.  Brock Osweiler may be the best quarterback in the game but that's only because Oakland is starting their 3rd string quarterback Connor Cook.  Both teams run the ball well although the Texans defense on paper have the advantage.

Detroit @ Seattle (-8) -

Seattle could get a boost by signing Devin Hester to return both punts and kicks.

Despite losing to the Cardinals in week 16, the Seahawks are still 7-1 at home.  Matt Stafford has not looked the same since injuring his finger and the Lions will also have to overcome a season ending injury to Theo Riddick.  Plus Detroit come into the game losing their past 3 games, having an 0-5 record against playoff tams, and have not won a play game in 25 years.   While Seattle may have concerns about getting their offense going due injuries to their offensive line, the Seahawks play better at the home especially against non-divison opponents.

Big Ben struggled in 30-15 loss to the Dolphins in Week 6

Miami (+10.5) @ Pittsburgh - The Steelers could make up for a poor performance against the Dolphins, especially since Ben Roethlisberger is healthy.  Still, the Dolphins have won two games in cold weather against the Jets and Bills on the road in December to clinch a playoff birth.  The Steelers homefield advantage should carry them through but expect a game within single digits especially since Pittsburgh has had close games to close out the season against the Bengals and Ravens.

New York Giant (+5) @ Green Bay - The Giants defense has looked great this season and are priming up for another Super Bowl run.  That being said, the Packers offense are playing much better as they have won 6 consecutive games.  While the Packers homefield advantage should help them come away with a victory, Eli Manning has won 2 games in Lambeau and gone on to win Super Bowls both times, meaning it could be decided by a field goal or less.  

Week 17 against the Spread: 7-9
Week 17 Straight Up: 10-6
2016-17 Season: 135-111-7
Straight Up(since week 9): 91-45

Week 17 Pick

Baltimore (-2.5) @ Cincinnati- Neither team has anything to play for.  Consider Baltimore the slight favorites here as they looked impressive but fell short against the Steelers while the Bengals still look a bit out of sorts without AJ Green in the lineup.

Buffalo (-3.5) @ New York Jets- Buffalo is out of the playoffs and fired Rex Ryan but looked solid against the Dolphins.  The Jets have struggled in blowout losses in consecutive weeks to the Patriots and Dolphins.  The Bills are looking to make up for a poor performance in a 37-31 loss in week 2.  Fitzpatrick's record this season as a starting QB is 2-8 and the change to colder weather conditions may favor the Bills.

Carolina @ Tampa Bay (-3.5) - The Buccaneers needs a lot of help to get in including a Washington loss but should be motivated to come away with a win.  Carolina came back to earth against the Falcons after a nice win against Washington.

Chicago (+6) @ Minnesota -

Jordan Howard looks to set the single rookie season rushing record,
needing only 63 yards to pass Matt Forte.

Everyone was talking up Matt Barkely last week but it didn't work out too well as he threw 5 interceptions against Washington.  The Vikings are now 2-8 after starting the season 5-0.  With nothing to playoff, Minnesota is the slight favorites although the Bears have kept it close in their last couple of games against their division rivals.

Cleveland @ Pittsburgh (-4) -

Robert Griffin is cleared to play after suffering a concussion.

The Steelers are still the favorites as the Browns could be due for a let down after beating the Chargers.

Dallas (+6.5) @ Philadelphia - The Eagles look frisky with Lane Johnson returning from his 10 game suspension.   The Cowboys have already clinched homefield, nonetheless played hard in a meaningless game for them against the Detroit Lions.  The Cowboys certainly have capable backups at the skill positions which could make this a close game where Philadelphia should come out on top because they are playing at home.

Green Bay @ Detroit (-3.5)-

It may come down to Stafford in the closing possessions of the game.

The winner of this game will ultimately win the division and the loser may miss the playoffs.  The Packers are on have the momentum in this game given that they have won their past 5 games but the Lions could keep it close considering they are 6-1 at home.  The Lions will be without Theo Riddick which could hurt their chances to win the game, but will get back corner Darius Slay.   Green Bay may be the slight favorites but it could come down to crunchtime in the 4th quarter.

Houston (+3) @ Tennessee -  Consider the Texans slight favorites with Mariota
out for the season in a meaningless game.  Houston looks to sweep the division for the first time in its franchise history.

Jacksonville (+5) @ Indianapolis -

 Frank Gore only needs 37 yards to add another 1000 rushing season to his resume. 

The Jaguars played well against an injured riddled Titans team.  The Colts may be motivated to win this game to help keep Chuck Pagano's head coaching job.  While the Colts should win, the Jaguars could make it interesting considering the effort they put forth in a 38-17 victory against the Titans.

New England (-9.5) @ Miami - New England looks to earn a win to gain homefield advantage throughout the playoffs while the Dolphins may rest their starters as Miami has already clinched a playoff spot.

New Orleans @ Atlanta (-7.5) - The Falcons are playing for a bye week and Matt Ryan tries to solidify his case for MVP.  While the Saints offense has looked great the last couple of weeks, New Orleans has shown they are not as good on the road.

NY Giants (+7) @ Washington - Washington needs this game to keep what little chance it has the playoffs alive.  The Giants have a history of not resting its starters in meaningless games including a 38-35 loss to the Patriots in week 17 of 2007.  Washington is more likely than not to come away with a win but the game could be close considering the Redskins and the Giants are division rivals and the Giants are looking to even the season series.

Arizona (-7) @ LA- The Cardinals look to close the season strong after beating Seattle on the road.  The Rams still look like they are in shell shock as the firing of Jeff Fisher has done little to improve the teams play in the short term.

Kansas City (-4.5) @ San Diego- Kansas City is still playing for a first round bye and hopes to beat a the Chargers who just lost to the Cleveland Browns.

Seattle @ San Francisco (+10.5) - Seattle should win as they will likely try to make up for a poor performance and try to keep their hopes of a first round bye alive.  Although the 49ers did play well against the Rams last week and could keep the game within single digits.

Oakland(-1) @ Denver - Oakland's backup QB Matt McGloin looked solid on a 3rd down conversion to clinch the game against the Colts.  The Broncos defense is a different animal but could struggle due to its offense, especially because of its offensive line which has suffered a few key injuries.

Week 16 against the spread: 9-7
Week 16 straight up: 11-5
Season against the Spread: 128-102-7
Straight up (since week 9)- 81-39