Week 17 NFL Picks

Detroit Lions (+7.5) @ Green Bay Packers- The Lions could make this a close game given that they have won the past two meetings against the Packers, and held Green Bay to only 17 points in their last game.

The division and a homefield game for the playoffs

will be on the line in this game at Lambeau Field

Jacksonville Jaguars @ Houston Texans (-7.5) - Houston is unlikely to make it to the postseason but will still be playing for a playoff spot.  Houston beat Jacksonville 27-13 in its last meeting.

Indianapolis Colts (-7.5) @ Tennessee Titans  - While the Colts have already won the division, they may want to put forth a better effort after a big loss to the Cowboys.  Chuck Pagano has said that he wants some momentum to carry into the playoffs so look for the Colts to play most of its starters in this one.

Cleveland Browns @ Baltimore Ravens (13.5) - Johnny Manziell partying has resulted in the tardiness of some Cleveland Browns players to practice.  Baltimore will look to try to secure a playoff spot as they need to either win or tie to the Cleveland Browns and a San Diego Chargers loss to the Kansas City Chiefs.  

Buffalo Bills (+6.5) @ New England Patriots - The Bills are playing well but have lost 13 straight in Foxborough.  While the Patriots struggled against the Jets last week, the Patriots put up 37 points in its first meeting at Buffalo.  Still, it looks as if Rob Gronkowski and other key contributors will be out in this one so this one has a potential to be a close game.

A list of New England inactive players

New York Jets (+7) @ Miami Dolphins - Rex Ryan is already cleaning out his office.  The Jets are playing for nothing more than a draft pick.  The Dolphins have also been eliminated from the playoffs so this game could potentially be close against division rivals.

Carolina Panthers (+3) @ Atlanta Falcons - These two six win teams will be playing for a playoff spot.  It looks as if Cam Newton is playing better ball who has as many rushing touchdowns in the past two weeks (2) as he did in the first eleven.

Chicago Bears @ Minnesota Vikings(-7) - Jay Cutler is back as the team's starting quarterback.  Still, Minnesota plays better ball at home than on the road and it looks like Coach Trestman will be fired from the Bears.

San Diego Chargers (-2.5) @ Kansas City Chiefs - The Chiefs will be without Alex Smith in this one which should be enough to give San Diego the edge.  If Chargers get out ahead, it will be tough for the Chiefs and Chase Daniels to lead them back to victory.  Philip Rivers has also done well at the end of the regular season.

Best record in the regular season finale since 2006. pic.twitter.com/UonRG1ITbV
— NFL on ESPN (@ESPNNFL) December 28, 2014

Philadelphia Eagles @ New York Giants -  Neither team has much to play for.  The Giants have been playing better ball as of late.  Peyton Manning has got it together with the help of Odell Beckham who has 6 touchdowns in the past 3 weeks.  Sanchez's play has not been up to par against division opponents like the Cowboys and the Redskins.

Dallas Cowboys (-6.5) @ Washington Redskins (+6.5) - This is the first time in a long time that Dallas has clinched a playoff spot going into the final week of the postseason.  Dallas's motivation for this game may be minimal since the conditions for the Cowboys to secure a first round bye (Green Bay and Seattle losing at home) is unlikely.  Washington played hard against the Eagles last week and even though it will hurt their draft position, the coaching staff and its quarterback are playing for its future and will likely put out a full effort to win the game.  Still, Dallas is so far undefeated on the road this season and should pull out the win here unless Dallas pulls out its starters.

Here's an interesting clip of Alfred Morris being mic'd up against Eagles as the Washington Redskins played spoiler last week against the Eagles.

New Orleans Saints (-5) @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers - The Saints have nothing to play for other than pride.  The Bucs in the meantime are playing for the chance for a number 1 pick which means they are better off losing this game than winning it.

Arizona Cardinals @ San Francisco (-6.5) 

I just looked Harbaugh in his eyes and thanked him for leading us to some of the best times of our lives. Give Respect when it's Due.
— Bam Davis (@AnthonyDavis76) December 28, 2014

It is the end of an era with the 49ers as Jim Harbaugh will go to Michigan.  While Arizona is playing for a potential first round bye, they will be starting their fourth string quarterback Logan Thomas.  Drew Stanton could be back next week in time for the playoffs who has been out after catching an infection in the hospital.  

Oakland Raiders @ Denver Broncos (-14) - The Denver Broncos are still playing for a #2 seed and look for them to try to pile up the points against the Raiders which they already did earlier this year.

Cincinnati Bengals (+3.5) @ Pittsburgh Steelers - These are two of the hottest teams in the NFL right now.  The Bengals are coming off a 37-28 win against the Broncos.  If the Bengals can run the ball, they should be able to win this game.  

Washington Redskins/Eagles Recap and Week 16 Picks

DeSean Jackson dances after a win 

Against his former team (via DCSportsBog)

Robert Griffin did just enough to help Washington win.  He threw a couple of bombs to DeSean Jackson which lead to 3 rushing touchdowns for the Redskins offense: one by Alfred Morris and two by fullback Daryl Young, who went to Villanova University.  He also did what Mark Sanchez could not do which was lead his team on a game winning field goal drive.  

Philadelphia errors certainly helped.  They extended drives with penalties on 3rd down including an unsportsmanlike conduct shove and a few  roughing the passe.  Will Allen tackled DeSean Jackson to avoid potential embarrassment which resulted in pass interference and the football near the goal line. 

The Eagles missed two field goals.  Sanchez committed a few turnovers including a fumble in the 1st quarter and interception with the Eagles having a chance to take the lead in the 4th quarter.  On what proved to be difference making score, the Eagles sealed their fate by roughing up Robert Griffin which put the Redskins in field goal range.

The Eagles should have put forth a much more disciplined effort given that they are playing for a playoff spot and could be eliminated from playoff contention if the Dallas Cowboys take care of business against the Colts.

Minnesota Vikings @ Miami Dolphins (-4) - The Dolphins have taken care of homefield for the most part and defense has been solid which could present problems for the Vikings.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+12) @ Green Bay Packers - The Packers struggled against the Bills while the Bucs could make this game potentially interesting if Lovie Smith can put forward a good defensive game plan and if Tampa Bay's big wide receivers step up.  

Chicago Bears @ Detroit Lions (-8.5) 

Jimmy Clausen is mostly famous for attending

Notre Dame but has been a disappointment in the NFL

 The Bears are already without Brandon Marshall and now they move forward with Jimmy Clausen who was only a third string quarterback for the Panthers. 

Atlanta Falcons @ New Orleans Saints (-4.5) - New Orleans won the first meeting at Atlanta and this time they will be playing at home to try to build off its momentum of its win against Bears.  The Falcons offense has been solid lately but their defense has been shaky all season long.

New England Patriots (-10) @ New York Jets  - This could be the last time that we see a Rex Ryan vs. Patriots showdown.  While Rex Ryan has upset the New England a few times, including the playoffs, the Patriots have done a good job at piling up points on below average opponents.  

Kansas City Chiefs @ Pittsburgh Steelers (-2.5) - The Steelers have put together good wins against the Bengals.  While the Chiefs have a good defense, I wonder if Alex Smith can create enough offense against the Steeler's 3/4 defense.  

Cleveland Browns @ Carolina Panthers (-4) - Cam Newton returns and Johnny Manziel looks dismal so far as a starting NFL quarterback.

Baltimore Ravens (-6.5) @ Houston Texans - The Texans look to play spoilers against the Ravens.  While the Ravens have won 4 of their past 5, the Ravens only beat Jacksonville by 8 points.    Still, Case Keenum makes the start, so it could be a struggle for Houston to put up points.  

New York Giants @ St. Louis Rams (-6.5) - The Rams defense is elite which should put the clamps down on the Giants.  While the Rams only scored 6 points last week, the Giants defense has been below average throughout the season.  

Buffalo Bills (-6.5) @ Oakland Raiders - The Buffalo Bills come off a win against the Packers and look to join the party on teams that have blown out the Raiders.  

Indianapolis Colts @ Dallas Cowboys (-3.5) - It looks like DeMarco Murray will play which could give Dallas the offensive boost it needs to beat the Indianapolis Colts.  It should be a high scoring game with big playoff implications for both teams.    

Seattle Seahawks (-8.5) @ Arizona Cardinals- Arizona is 11-3 and could have enough tools to keep this game close down the stretch.  Still, the Seahawks have been taking care of quality opponents both on the road and at home and it could be hard for Arizona to garner up some offense with their 3rd string quarterback Ryan Lindley.

Worst Thursday Night Game Ever Pick

The Titans have started 3 different QBs this season and might draft Mariota or Winston (via ESPN)

Tennessee Titans @ Jacksonville Jaguars (-4.5)

This is the first time in 42 games that the Jaguars have been favored over an opponent.  The last time these two teams played, the Titans beat the Jaguars 16-14.  Each team enters the game at 2-12 and a winner does have to emerge.  I suppose Jacksonville will have the advantage at quarterback with Blake Bortles, and Tennessee will be highly motivated to lose this one if they want to secure a top pick to draft to draft either Mariota or Winston in the upcoming draft.

Week 15 picks

Oakland Raiders @ Kansas City Chiefs (-10) -  Kansas City lost to the Raiders a couple of weeks ago and right now haven't been able to get on track after a tough loss to the Cardinals on a controversial call.  The Chiefs will want to extract revenge on the Raiders and Oakland has struggled on the road.

Jacksonville Jaguars @ Baltimore Ravens (-13.5) - The Ravens are playing better coming off a win at Miami while the Jaguars struggled against the Giants.  Look for the Ravens to put away the Jaguars especially since Baltimore is playing for a playoff spot.

Pittsburgh Steelers (2.5) @ Atlanta Falcons  - Atlanta's offense looks like it is clicking on all cylinders while the Steelers managed a solid win against the Bengals last week.  The Steelers should have an advantage over a shaky Atlanta pass secondary. 

Houston Texans (+7) @ Indianapolis Colts  -  This is a division game.  While the Colts are the slight favorites, look for the Texans to keep it close.

Cincinatti Bengals @ Cleveland Browns (+2.5) -

Johnny Manziel makes his debut against

a coach who called him a midget

 Johnny Manziel makes his first career start against Cincinatti.  Manziel could make some rookie mistakes but even so, he has the potential to be an upgrade over Bryan Hoyer who had only thrown one touchdown pass in his last five games.  

Miami Dolphins @ New England Patriots (-9) -  New England lost the opening game of the season to the Dolphins but now Tom Brady and the Patriots offense is hitting on all cylinders.

Tampa Bay Bucaneers @ Carolina Panthers - Cam Newton is out in this game.  But the Panthers already have beaten the Bucs on the road without Newton in their opener.  Plus Carolina's defense has picked it up lately especially against the Saints.

Washington Redskins (+7) @ New York Giants - Both teams have little to play for other than pride.  Look for Washington to get back on track even though they struggled against hte Giants in their opening meeting.  

Green Bay Packers (3.5) @ Buffalo Bills - Green Bay's defense had trouble containing the Falcons offense.  Still, Kyle Orton and the Bills offense have not been as explosive.

Minnesota Vikings @ Detroit Lions (-7.5) - The Minnesota Vikings have won their past couple of games but Detroit has been taking care of business at home with two consecutive 17 point victories at home.

Denver Broncos (-4) @ San Diego Chargers - The Chargers defense has had trouble slowing down Peyton Manning since he's been in Denver.

San Francisco 49ers @ Seattle Seahawks (9.5)- The 49ers have looked shaky leading up to this game against the Seahawks .  San Francisco its past two games by double digits, with a terrible loss to the Raiders.  While the 49ers have plenty to play for,  the Seahawks defense is hitting its stride as was able to slow down the Philadelphia's offense last week.  

Dallas Cowboys (+3.5) @ Philadelphia Eagles - Dallas has had extra time to prepare and look back at the mistakes they made during the Thanksgiving game.   Of course the game will depend on upon Sanchez who has been great at times and mediocre in others.  

New Orleans Saints (-3) @ Chicago Bears -  Both teams are struggling.  Look for New Orleans to rebound after a poor effort against the Panthers.  Plus the Bears will be without Brandon Marshall for the remainder of the season.  

Week 15 Thursday Night Pick

Since taking over as a starter, Shaun Hill is 3-1
(via the LA Times)

Arizona Cardinals @ St. Louis Rams (-5) - The Rams have outscored their last two opponents (the Raiders and the Redskins) 76-0 in their last two games.  Meanwhile, the Cardinals trounced the Rams 31-14 in their last meeting in Arizona, but are without Carson Palmer in this one. 

Yes, the Rams last two opponents may look below average- then again, the Raiders have won 2 of their past 3 and Washington's offense has been better with Colt McCoy running the show.   Arizona's offense has been limited with Josh Skelton; the Rams defense has outscored the Cardinals offense in the past couple of weeks.   The Rams are now playing with a lot of confidence, and have already beaten quality teams at home including the Denver Broncos and the San Francisco 49ers.  Look for St. Louis to cover here against Arizona 

My Week 14 NFL Picks

Dallas Cowboys  @ Chicago Bears (+4) - Chicago and Dallas have had each a week to prepare.  It should be a high scoring affair.

Tony Romo's December record has been bad
Jay Cutler has picked up his play 
(via espn.com)

Baltimore Ravens (+2.5) @ Miami Dolphins - This game could decide who ultimately makes the playoffs.  I have questions about Miami's offense who almost lost to the Jets this past Monday Night.

Pittsburgh Steelers @ Cincinatti Bengals (-3) - The Bengals have been a more consistent team than the Steelers who have had some impressive wins but few of those have come on the road.

St. Louis Rams (+3) @ Washington Redskins - Colt McCoy and Washington's offense actually put together a few good drives against the Indianapolis; it was the defense that actually could not hang with the Colts.  Still, the Rams defense is really good, they typically play Washington tough, and they are playing for a playoff spot.  

Colt McCoy has been solid 

but Washington's defense hasn't been 

(via bleacherreport.com)

New York Jets @ Minnesota Vikings (-6) - Minnesota has won 2 of its past 3 home games and their only loss was against the Packers.  The Jets played the Dolphins close but have generally struggled playing away from home.  

Buffalo Bills (+9.5) @ Denver Broncos - The Bills defense could keep it close against a Broncos team that fluctuates from week to week.

Kansas City Chiefs @ Arizona Cardinals - Looks like it might be time to sell on the Cardinals who are without Carson Palmer and the Chiefs defense is certainly more than capable of containing Arizona's offense.

San Francisco 49ers (-8) @ Oakland Raiders - Both teams are coming off big losses.  Look for the 49ers to clamp down the Raiders offense which failed to score last week against the Rams.

Seattle Seahawks @ Philadelphia Eagles (-1) - Seattle had a good win against the 49ers but the Eagles offense is a different animal.

New England Patriots (-3.5) @ San Diego Chargers - The Patriots should be extra motivated after a close loss to the Packers.

Atlanta Falcons (+12.5) @ Green Bay Packers - The Falcons just beat the Cardinals and that's a lot of points for the Packers to cover who may have a let down after a good win against the Patriots.

My Week 13 NFL Picks

Washington Redskins @ Indianapolis Colts (-9) -  Washington's defense has played well lately and they have gotten good quarterback play from Colt McCoy in the 2 games he's played in.  Still, the Colts offense should take care of business at home against a lesser opponents and it is unclear how Jim Haslett's 3/4 defense will slow down Andrew Luck.

Andrew Luck and RG3 were supposed to battle out 

the best young QB this Sunday. But now RG3 is on the bench

Here's a good read that suggests that RG3 is on his way out of DC.

Tennessee Titans @ Houston Texans (-7) - Houston took care of business against the Titans last time around with JJ Watt piling on quarterback Zach Mettenberger.  At this point, the Titans are in the running for the top overall pick in next year's NFL draft. 

Expect to see JJ Watt in backfield a lot

like the last time they met (via nola.com)

Cleveland Browns (+3) @ Buffalo Bills - Cleveland has been a good road team.  Buffalo is only 2-3 when they play in Buffalo.  It should be a battle of good defenses, the Browns should get better QB play from Hoyer.

San Diego Chargers @ Baltimore Ravens (-6) - The Chargers pass rush has not been getting the job done which could allow for the Ravens offense going.  The Chargers could struggle against a good team against the Ravens as the Chargers are 1-4 against teams above .500 this season.

NY Giants (-3) @ Jacksonville Jaguars - The Giants played the Cowboys close last week- look for the Giants to carry that momentum into this game against a struggling Jacksonville team.  

Cincinnati Bengals (5.5) @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers - Tampa Bay has yet to win a game at home this season while the Bengals are currently on a 2 game winning streak.  This team is much better offensively with AJ Green and Giovanni Bernard back in the lineup.   

Oakland Raiders @ St. Louis Rams (-6.5) - Oakland is coming off a win against the Chiefs so the Rams will come into this game motivated.  St. Louis did hold to Broncos to 7 points so it could be a struggle for the Raiders offense to put up points.  

New Orleans Saints @ Pittsburgh Steelers (-4) - It's hard to predict what this Steelers team will do given its quality wins against the Ravens and Colts and terrible losses to the Bucs.  The Saints in the meantime enter the game with a 3 game losing streak and still has struggled to find road wins especially with its porous defense.  

Carolina Panthers (+2.5) @ Minnesota Vikings-  This should be a close game.  The Panthers are coming off a bye which means Cam Newton should be healthier.  

Arizona Cardinals(-3) @ Atlanta Falcons - Arizona struggled against one of the toughest places to play in Seattle.  Look for the Cardinals to get back on track against the Falcons.  

New England Patriots @ Green Bay Packers(-3) - This should be a great game against the two elite teams.  The Packers should get the extra boost from the homefield advantage.

Denver Broncos (-1) @ Kansas City Chiefs - The Chiefs may not have the passing attack to keep up with the Broncos.  Plus Denver has a good run defense to slow down Jamaal Charles.  

Miami Dolphins (-7) @ New York Jets -  Miami Dolphins will look to get back on track against the Jets who pretty much have nothing to play for other than the top overall pick.

Pre-Turkey NFL Picks

via thehogs.net

Today, marks the 7th year anniversary of Sean Taylor's death.  

A documentary about Sean Taylor can be seen here.

Chicago Bears (+7) @ Detroit Lions - Jay Cutler is turnover prone and leads the league with 18 turnovers.  Detroit also is one of the top defenses against the run.  Still, it is a division game and Detroit has had trouble putting away opponents.

Philadelphia Eagles @ Dallas Cowboys (-3) - The Cowboys have only played .500 ball at home but the Eagles three losses have come on the road against above .500 NFC teams including the 49ers, Cardinals, and Packers.  This is a good test for Mark Sanchez.

Seattle Seahawks(+1.5) @ San Francisco 49ers - A game between the two teams from the NFC Conference Championship last year.  Patrick Willis is out for the 49ers and the 49ers offense for the most part struggled against Washington.   Seattle looks to have regained some momentum by shutting down the Arizona Cardinals last Sunday.

Thought on RG3 Getting Benched

Colt McCoy (center) gets the starting job

Griffin is probably depressed

(via SBNation)

Robert Griffin has been benched in favor of Colt McCoy, who started the season as the 3rd string quarterback.  Griffin's play over the past 3 weeks has been terrible in what otherwise would have been winnable games for Washington- which has all but knocked out Washington out of playoff contention.

I will say that perhaps Griffin is not necessarily done as a starting QB but he certainly has not been improving in his last three starts.  He keeps making the same critical mistakes

• Not reading defenses and finding the open receiver, perhaps because of his inability to learn the offense
• Unable to navigate the pocket and throw the ball away
• Taking unnecessary hits
• Accuracy, particularly on deep throws, has been below average

The benching will give Griffin more time to work on these aspects of his game and could provide Griffin with some extra motivation.  After all, Colt McCoy has improved since his poor start in Cleveland.  

Still, Griffin has not really earned the starting job even since preseason.  It seems to have to do more to do with how much Washington had given up to acquire Griffin in the first place or his play since his rookie year.  Still, Griffin has been a shell of that player since that knee injury where fans were wondering why Griffin was not taken out of the game.  

This is what the St. Louis Rams have

gotten in return for RG3

(via reddit.com)

Griffin will not get a chance to face off against Andrew Luck who was selected ahead of Griffin as the #1 overall pick.  What was supposed to be a budding rivalry turns into a battle of Colt (McCoy) vs the Colts.  

My Week 12 Picks

Josh Gordon returns from a suspension for a DUI

(Via ESPN)

Cleveland Browns (+3) @ Atlanta Falcons -  Atlanta is streaking.  Josh Gordon makes his return so expect a much more explosive Cleveland offense.

Detroit Lions @ New England Patriots (-7) - The Patriots are playing well especially at home and the Lions haven't been effective incorporating Calvin Johnson in their offense.

Tennessee Titans (+11) @ Philadelphia Eagles - The Eagles run a high octane offense but the Titans defense is decent.  If Sanchez isn't running the ship smoothly, the Titans could cut it to single digits.

Green Bay Packers (-8.5) @ Minnesota Vikings - Some advanced statistics

"Pack leads the NFL in points/drive with 2.88, and int/drive with .039, and TD/drive .350, and ave lead with 7.83"

Still no Adrian Peterson

Jacksonville Jaguars (13.5) @ Indianapolis Colts - Jacksonville is not a good team but could get up to play a game against a division rival.

Cincinnati Bengals @ Houston Texans (-1.5) - Houston's defense has been keeping them in games and could do the same against the Bengals.  

Arizona Cardinals (+7) @ Seattle Seahawks - Arizona is 9-1 and while they may lose the game, they have a good chance to keep it close against a Seattle team that has already stuggled a few times at home this season to teams like the Raiders.

St. Louis Rams @ San Diego Chargers (+5.5) - San Diego is a consistent team.  While the Rams had a great win against the Broncos, the Chargers will not be overlooking them.

Miami Dolphins @ Denver Broncos (-7) - Look for the Broncos to get back on track especially since they have played much better after bad losses.

Washington Redskins @ San Francisco 49ers (-9) - Washington has typically struggled against the 49ers defense and mobile quarterbacks like Colin Kapernick.  Plus Griffin has been turnover prone and not throwing the ball accurately.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Chicago Bears (-5.5) - Jay Cutler got back on track last week and it could continue against the Buccaneers who are one of the worst pass defenses in the league.  The Bucs did a good job slowing down Washington last week but Chicago offense has been better than Washington's.

Dallas Cowboys (-3.5) @ New York Giants - Dallas comes off a bye and should give the Giants a steady dose of DeMarco Murray.

New York Jets @ Buffalo Bills (-2.5) - This game is played on a neutral field after Buffalo has been snowed out.  Buffalo has been unable to practice with over 70 inches of snow this week.  The Bills have done a good job forcing turnovers against the Jets in New York so they should still win this game despite the game being in Detroit and lack of practice time.

Baltimore Ravens @ New Orleans Saints (-3) - A must win for both teams- the Ravens have struggled on the road against the Colts, Bengals, and Steelers. 

My Week 11 NFL Picks

Houston Texans @ Cleveland Browns (-3.5) 

Cleveland is coming off its third straight win.  The Texans have only one road win this season.

Minnesota Vikings  @ Chicago Bears (-2.5)

The Chicago Bears are a mess right now with a 3 game losing streak and the Vikings have won 2 in a row.  The Bears should get it together at home against a rookie quarterback... right?

Philadelphia Eagles @ Green Bay Packers (-5.5)

Mark Sanchez celebrated his first win with a cheesesteak

and this week he will playing against the cheeseheads 

via SBNation

Green Bay has been playing lights out football and the Eagles are coming off a big win against Carolina.  Both teams are evenly matched but I think it will be a high scoring affair in which the Packers will come on top.

Seattle Seahawks @ Kansas City Chiefs (-1.5)

Kansas City is undefeated at home while Seattle has not been the same team away from home this season. 

Atlanta Falcons @ Carolina Panthers (+1)

Both teams have been mediocre this season.  I will take Carolina at home.

Cincinnati Bengals @ New Orleans Saints (-7) 

Andy Dalton has been struggling

but at least he has a nice jacket

The Saints should be playing with a sense of urgency and they are at home.  Two of the Bengals key starters; linebacker Vontaze Burfict and running back Giovani Bernard are out this week.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Washington Redskins (7.5)

Robert Griffin has been inconsistent but Tampa Bay has been pretty bad and Washington is coming off a bye.  Josh McNown had a good game last time against the Washington in a Chicago Bears uniform but things haven't gone so well for him Tampa Bay.

Here's McNown getting emotional 

after last weeks loss

St Louis Rams (+9.5) @ Denver Broncos

St Louis is inconsistent from week to week but they have put together solid wins against the Seahawks and the 49ers.  Denver should win but the margin could be relatively close.  Of course there's always the chance of Manning piling up the points.

San Francisco 49ers (-4) @ New York Giants

It wasn't too long ago that the Giants had turned around their season after an 0 and 2 start with three straight wins.  Now the Giants have lost 4 straight and their offense appears to be a mess without top wideout Victor Cruz and Peyton Hillis is out this week with a concussion.  The 49ers are coming off a good win and still need to play with a sense of urgency in order to keep up with teams in their division including the Cardinals and the Seahawks.

Oakland Raiders  @ San Diego Chargers (-10)

The Chargers are coming off a bye while the Raiders are one of the worst teams in the NFL.  

Detroit Lions @ Arizona Cardinals (-1)

The Cardinals will have their hands full with Calvin Johnson but all they seem to do is win.  

New England Patriots @ Indianapolis Colts (-3)

A great game that features Andrew Luck vs Tom Brady.  

Pittsburgh Steelers (-6) at Tennessee Titans

Big Ben and company are coming off a tough loss to the Jets.  Still, the Titans are struggling and the Steelers should come up on top.

My Week 10 NFL Picks

Dallas Cowboys (-7.5) @ Jacksonville Jaguars (in London) - Tony Romo returns in London.  Hard to make out if Romo will have the deer in the headlights look that he gave Washington or if he will play well despite having two fractured vertebrates in his back.  Jacksonville has still lost 3 games by 10 or more this season, Blake Bortles hasn't solved the Jacksonville offensive woes so I look for that trend to continue.

Jerry Jones wants Romo to play

All Romo has to do is hand it off to DeMarco Murray

Detroit Lions (-2.5) @ Miami Dolphins

Detroit is coming off a bye, playing home, and Calvin Johnson returns.  Miami has been playing well  and comes off a 37-0 win against the Chargers.  Still the Dolphins are not as good of team on the road as they are at home.  

Kansas City Chiefs (+1.5) @ Buffalo Bills - The Chiefs are looking to sweep the AFC East.  Buffalo had a good win against the Jets and have a bye week to prepare.  Still, the Bills aren't as explosive offensively without CJ Spiller who is out for the season.

San Francisco 49ers @ New Orleans Saints (-5) - 

Frank Gore, running back of the 49ers has said "We are going to make the playoffs. We are going to do it."  Still, New Orleans is a different team at home, winning by double digits over Green Bay.  I'm going over recent history than a guarantee by a pretty good running back.

It is hard to take Frank Gore seriously as 

he's heading towards career lows

Tennessee Titans @ Baltimore Ravens (-10)  -

Baltimore comes off a tough loss to the Steelers.  Still, the Titans aren't very good with their only win coming against the Jacksonville Jaguars especially since Zach Mettenberger has taken over as QB.

Pittsburgh Steelers (-4) @ New York Jets - Big Ben has had 2 straight weeks of throwing six touchdowns against two of the best teams in the NFL. The Colts and the Ravens were pretty good teams when the Steelers played them and the Jets are one of the worst teams in the NFL.   

Atlanta Falcons (-3) @ Tampa Bay Bucaneers - The last time the Falcons played, they choked away a 21 point lead against the Detroit Lions. The Bucaneers are struggling as they go back to Josh McNown as their starting quarterback.  Atlanta is coming off a bye which should have given them more time to prepare for the Bucs.

Denver Broncos (-12) @ Oakland Raiders - 

It is a division game, but Manning looks to redeem himself after a tough loss to the Patriots.  The Raiders played the Seahawks close in Seattle, but the Broncos offense is more explosive.

St Louis Rams @ Arizona Cardinals (-7) - Arizona is one of the best teams in the league.  St. Louis did beat the 49ers last week but they are inconsistent from week to week.

NY Giants @ Seattle Seahawks (-9.5) - Seattle is at home and the Giants are struggling especially on offense without Victor Cruz.

Chicago Bears @ Green Bay Packers (-7.5) - The Packers have been taking care of business against the Chicago.  Jay Cutler is struggling and it may be hard to get it going in Green Bay.

Carolina Panthers (+6.5) @ Philadelphia Eagles- Mark Sanchez makes his first start for the Eagles. The Panthers defense has been playing better over the past two weeks.  

My Week 9 NFL Picks

San Diego (+2.5) @ Miami

The Chargers haven't won a game in Miami in 32 years.  Still, today is a new day and the Chargers passing attack should take advantage of Miami's small secondary.  

Jacksonville @ Cincinnati (-10.5)

AJ Green returns so expect Andy Dalton

 to find his rhythm against a struggling Jacksonville team.

Tampa Bay @ Cleveland (-6.5)

Both teams have struggled as of late but Cleveland has shown the ability to at least win some games.  I look for them to rebound against the Bucaneers.

Washington (+1) @ Minnesotta

Robert Griffin makes his return against the Vikings.  Washington's defense has been significantly better despite guys like Deangelo Hall and Brian Orakpo getting injured.  Haslett will attempt to blitz Terry Bridgewater.  Norv Turner as an offensive coordinator faces the Redskins who he once coached.  

Hope everyone on the Redskins is OK from this accident.  

Redskins bus just got into an accident
— Dianna Marie Russini (@NBCdianna) November 2, 2014

Philadelphia (-2) @ Houston 

Philadelphia suffered a tough loss against the Cardinals while the Texans took care of business against the Titans.  Philadelphia offense should pose a tougher offensive challenge than what the Titans could muster last week. 

New York Jets @ Kansas City (+9)

The Chiefs have been playing well while the Jets offense has been a mess as they are shuffling between Geno Smith who threw 3 interceptions last week and the veteran Michael Vick who had his share of turnovers.

Arizona @ Dallas

Dallas will be without Tony Romo in this one 

(via the Washington Times)

St. Louis (+10.5) @ San Francisco

St. Louis had a poor effort last week but it was only two weeks ago that they beat the Seattle Seahawks.  

Denver (-3) @ New England

Brady vs. Manning

I have Manning outshining Brady in this one.  Of course, Manning has had his share of poor performances against Belichick's defense but even so, Manning's receivers are really REALLY good.

Oakland @ Seattle (+13.5)

Seattle has struggled over the past two weeks but return back home where they should take care of business against the Raiders.

Baltimore @ Pittsburgh

This is a rivalry game where anything can happen - I will go with the Ravens to rebound off of a tough loss.

Indianapolis Colts (-3) @ NY Giants 

Indianapolis's defense looks like a mess against the Steelers.  Still the Giants could struggle without Victor Cruz.  

NBA Preview/NBA Wins Over Unders

Well I'm not going to put my money where my mouth is on these bets but this is where I stand on the wins over/under for the NBA season.

EASTERN CONFERENCE

Atlanta Hawks 43.5 – Over

Al Horford returns from a season ending injury (via Bleacher Report)

Atlanta gets back Al Horford and Mike Buldenhozer is a top notch NBA coach.  The Hawks were among the top 3 teams in the Eastern Conference before Horford went down with a season ending injury.  Look for them to compete for 4th to 5th seed in Eastern Conference.  

Boston Celtics - 27.5 – Under

Rondo is a top point guard when he's healthy 

but he starts the 2014-15 season injured

(via Bleacher Report)

The Celtics have a pretty good coach in Brad Stevens.  Still, they don't seem to have a lot of talent and the pieces don't seem to fit together.  Guys like Smart and Rondo are redundant and Jeff Green doesn't show up every game.  They did add James Young and someone like Kelly Olynik could make progress this upcoming season

Brooklyn Nets - 42 – Under

The Nets lost Paul Pierce and Shaun Livingston which is a big reason why they had a lot of success last season running small ball lineups.  The front court pairing of Garnett/Lopez didn't work in the regular season.  Lionel Hollins is a good head coach but he has less talent to work with in Brooklyn than he did with Grizzlies.  Deron Williams is says that he is 100% but it remains to be seen.

I wonder if more Brooklyn Nets Fans will 

become the majority of fans booing KG

Charlotte  Hornets - 44.5– Over

The Hornets did lose Josh McRoberts but they have guys like Cody Zeller and Noah Vonleh to take his place- although it is hard to be confident about Michael Jordan picking good players in the draft even if Rich Cho is officially taking the players.  Michael Kidd Gilghrist may have learned how to shoot which could vault the Hornets.  And they also added Lance Stephenson.

Chicago Bulls – 55.5 - Over

- This all hinges on the health of Derrick Rose-  I think it looks like he can make it through the year healthy and they have added a lot pieces in their frontcourt including Mirotic, McDermott, and Pau Gasol, 

Cleveland 58.5 – Under

Cleveland's defense, especially its pick and roll, could be a problem

-Cleveland has a lot of talent but it may take time for the pieces to fit together.  If this was the team's 2nd year together I would go for 60 wins plus but they may struggle defensively plus Anderson Varejao is injury prone.  In fact, guys like Irving and Love have also had their stretches of injuries.  The big thing will be if Cleveland can get it together defensively especially since Irving and Love are below average defenders. That offense should be the best in the NBA.  Dave Blatt looks like he could be a good NBA head coach so I could see Cleveland figuring out sooner than later.  

Detroit 36 – Over [LOCK]

- Detroit has no shortage of talent in terms of bigs; their weakness last year was their coaching and the Pistons have made a huge upgrade with Stan Van Gundy.  Bringing in shooters like Augustin and Meeks (who is out with an injury to start the season) should help spread the floor.  And like last season, the Pistons have the size to dominate opponents with Drummond, Smith, and Monroe- and won't play all of them at the same time which should optimize their lineups.  

Indiana 33.5 – Under 

- Paul George is out and Lance Stephenson is on Charlotte Hornets which makes the Pacers offense worse which was already considered to be mediocre.  Rodney Stuckey could find himself playing well in terms of a fantasy player.  Hibbert could still put together a solid season who was inconsistent last season.  Hibbert could get more touches offensively which could give him better confidence to play defensively and on the boards.  

Miami Heat 44.5 – Over

Bosh and Wade are still 2 all star caliber players

(via NBA.com)

Miami did manage to win 45 games back in 2010 when they had Dwayne Wade and a bunch of mediocre players.  Spolestra is a good coach when it comes to the regular season.  Bosh and even Wade should play well without LeBron at times.  Of course, the big if with Wade is his health but he may feel like he has something to prove with the departure of LeBron.  Shabazz Napier who helped lead UConn to a national championship has been picking it up in preseason.

Milwaulkee Bucks 25.5 – Over

The Bucks have some talented pieces n Jabari Parker and Giannis Antetokounmpo.  Coach Kidd appears to be a decent NBA head coach when he's not spilling soda.  Of course things could turn out badly if they are tanking.

Knicks 41.5 – Under [LOCK]

It may take a while for Derek Fisher

to coach up the Knicks

- The Knicks might be sharing the ball offensively but they have become worse defensively with the loss of Chandler.  Dalembert has shown flashes but it is going to be hard to expect that effort from a game to game unless Derek Fisher channels Phil Jackson.  Fisher may be working his magic on JR Smith who actually said: 

"I'm not going to lie. Trying to think about the rest of the team over myself or my scoring is something that I never really had to do before"  Link

Orlando 27 – Under

Orlando has a lot of young talent but I'm not sure how it will lead to wins this upcoming season.  Elfrid Payton has gotten a lot of buzz and Aaron Gordon could project into a top notch power forward.  Channing Frye is a good stretch big that could proide psacing like he did in Phoenix.  Still, Orlando will probably tank away the season and try to ad another player in the lottery.

Philadelphia 15 – Over

I'm taking the over here but it could get ugly for the 76ers.  They will find ways to win games just because the NBA season is so long.  

Toronto 48 – Over

I think Lowry can play well after a big contract

via CBSSports.com

Toronto was on pace to be a 50 win team last season after the Rudy Gay trade.  Kyle Lowry was an all star caliber point guard last year and young guys like DeRozan and Valuncinas will continue to develop.  

Washington 47.5 – Over

John Wall sees himself winning a championship 

and opening up a new restaurant someday

I have the Wizards getting 48 wins this season.  The backcourt injury to Beal could set them back a bit but they could start out well if Porter steps up who played well in the preseason.  The addition of bigs including Blair and Humphries should provide an upgrade in depth to the Wizards bigs.

 WESTERN CONFERENCE

Dallas -  50.5 (over)

Dirk and Chandler are reunited from their championship run

from 2011.  The Mavericks also pick up Chandler

Rick Carlisle is a great coach.  Dirk hasn't shown signs of slowing down.  Tyson Chandler is an upgrade over Dalembert.  Parsons can be plugged in and stretch the floor.  Getting Jameer Nelson and Raymond Felton offsets the loss of Jose Calderson. The Mavericks do lose a bit defensively with Marion. Losing DeJuan Blair and Vince Carter hurt though.  

Nuggets  - 42.5 (under)

Kenneth Faried is a good building block but I'm not sure if he's a franchise player.  Danillo Gallinari may not be right after missing a year and a half of basketball.

Warriors – 52 (over) LOCK

Golden State should be better offensively under Steve Kerr.  Plus Golden State was a top defensive team last season.  They could be a dark horse contender in the Western Conference.

Houston – 49.5 (over)

It's hard to see a Harden/Howard combo

having less than 50 win team 

- Houston did not have an ideal offseason since they were not able to lure a major free agent in Anthony, Bosh, or James.  Still, Trevor Ariza may be a better fit for them than Parsons because he is a better defender and hits 3s at a higher rate than Parsons.  The Trail Blazers were just a bad matchup for the Rockets.  Look for Harden to also keep drawing fouls at a ridiculous rate and Howard has been pretty durable over the past 2 seasons since his back injury.

LA Clippers – 56.5 – over - The Clippers are built for the regular season.  Griffin can even carry the Clippers if CP3 misses a few games.  Doc Rivers is a very good NBA head coach.  

LA Lakers – 30.5 (under) LOCK

Byron Scott just is a downgrade

over D'Antoni (via slamonline.com)

The Lakers lost Pau Gasol. Steve Nash is out for the year and his career is likely over.  Nick Young will miss the beginning of the season from a wrist injury.  Kobe Bryant is back but it remains to be seen if he can carry a team around him.  Randle was a great pick but it will take a while for him to develop.

Overall, the Lakers seem like a mediocre offensive team and a terrible defensive team.  Their coach Byron Scott also doesn't seem like a good fit.

Memphis – 47.5 (over) LOCK

The Grizzlies should be a 50 win team if 

Marc Gasol plays the whole season

The Grizzlies are a well coached team by Dave Joeger which managed to win more than 50 games despite the fact that Marc Gasol didn't play the whole season.  They also got Vince Carter who is 38 but was one of the reasons why Dallas was able to take the Spurs to 7 games last season

Minnesota – 27.5 -  Under 

The Timberwolves have a lot talent.  But I'm not sure where they get their scoring from down the stretch of games.  Flip Saunders could coach this team up a bit but even Saunders can't work miracles as indicated by his time with the Washington Wizards.

New Orleans – 43.5 Under

Perhaps I'm slow to adopt the trend that Anthony Davis is going to be an elite player.  Omer Asik should help the Hornets defensively.  I'm just skeptical about the pieces around Davis which include Evans and Holiday.   

OKC 53.5 – Under

Kevin Durant is injured and watches

the Washington Redskins with his Redskins blanket

Durant is out and could miss at least 2 months.  Reggie Jackson also injured his ankle and is day to day.  It will be interesting to see if Westbrook can carry the load for this team

Phoenix (44) – Over

Bledsoe, Dragic, and Thomas may 

have the most talented backcourt in the NBA

(via thepodiumgame.com)

Jeff Hornacek is a great head coach.  While the Suns lost Frye they seem to get the most out of talent that's on the roster.  The Suns traded Marcin Gortat before the start of last season and that didn't seem to hurt them.  Isiah Thomas is a good insurance policy if Bledsoe gets injured.

Portland (50) – Under

- Portland is a good team but they struggled to close the regular season last year.  Lillard and Aldrige are really good offensive players.  Batum and Matthews provide the ability to hit the three.  Portland should still be a team than wins somewhere in the high forties.   

Sacramento (33.5) – Under

DeMarcus Cousins wishes he had more talent around him

(via Yahoo Sports)

The loss of Isiah Thomas hurts in the short term.  DeMarcus Cousins has become a better player but he still needs to become more consistent.  It will also be interesting to see if Rudy Gay can continue playing well with the Kings considering that he struggled with the Raptors and the Grizzlies and both of those teams have played better without him.

Utah 23.5 – Under

Dante Exum has shown flashes that people

talk about him as being a young Kobe (via NBA.com)

Utah could win more or less but they will be one of the worst teams in the Western Conference.

San Antonio – 57.5 - Over

- All San Antonio seems to do is win even if guys like Duncan, Ginobli, or Parker aren't playing.  Greg Popovich is a mad scientist.  Age could slow them down but people have been saying that for the past 5 years.  

Seems like Spurs will never die (via Dime Magazine)

MY NFL Week 8 Picks

- Chicago (+6) @ New England - Chicago has been trending downward.  While Jay Cutler has been playing badly lately, he is an erratic quarterback which suggests he is due for a good game.

- Detroit (-3.5) @ Atlanta - This game is at London which means no home field for Atlanta.  While Calvin Johnson is a game time decision, Detroit's defense is tough while the Falcons' defense has given up the 2nd most yards, only with Jacksonville allowing more.

- Minnesota @ Tampa Bay (-2.5) - Tampa Bay comes off a bye week, so the preparation and home field should give them the advantage in this one.

- St. Louis @ Kansas City (-7) - While St. Louis isn't far from Kansas City, the Chiefs being at home favors them.  The Rams played out of their minds against the Seahawks but it remains to be seen if if it was a one time showing against a division rival and the Super Bowl Champs- and it is up in the air if the Rams can bring the same performance on the road.

- Seattle (-5) @ Carolina Panthers - I think Seattle defense shows up to play after a poor showing against the Rams.  Russell Wilson has been playing well offensively without Percy Harvin as he ran for 300 yards and passed for 100 in a loss against St. Louis.

- Buffalo Bills @ NY Jets (-3) - The Jets have improved significantly offensively with the addition of Percy Harvin.

- Miami Dolphin (-6) @ Jacksonville - The Dolphins are streaking and Jacksonville is struggling with a rookie quarterback.

- Houston (-3.5) @ Tennessee Titans - One of the few matchups where Ryan Fitzpatrick is projected to be the better QB over Zach Mettenberger.

Zach Mettenberger was the 3rd string QB for the Titans

and now is the starter... yikes!

- Baltimore (-2) @ Cincinnati- The Ravens are playing well - their offense consistently shows up especially the Flacco and Steve Smith Sr. connection.  The Bengals are not the same team offensively without AJ Green.

- Philadelphia (+1.5) @ Arizona - I like the Cardinals as a team but Philadelphia has had a bye week to prepare.  

- Indianapolis (-3.5) @ Pittsburgh - Andrew Luck has been a beast and a MVP candidate this season.  The Steelers showed a lot at the end of the first half against the Texans.  Then again, Pittsburgh did lose to the Bucs at home. 

- Oakland @ Cleveland (-6.5) - The Browns come off a terrible loss and the Raiders for the most part have been terrible this season.

- Green Bay (+2) @ New Orleans - I like Aaron Rodgers and the Packers to keep winning. Crowd noise and home field might be a factor- then again, I'm not too confident in Rex Ryan's defense to get the job done.

- Washington @ Dallas (-10) - This is a rivalry and the Redskins have beaten the Cowboys in more improbable circumstances.  Still, Colt McCoy is an unknown.  Washington's secondary has been terrible and Dallas has Dez Bryant.  Washington's linebackers haven't covered well throughout the season and the Cowboys have Jason Witten.  Brian Orakpo is out for the season as well.  Then again there is also this...

RGIII is officially questionable for the Redskins for MNF
— Andrew Siciliano (@AndrewSiciliano) October 25, 2014

Last week: 7-5-1

Week 7 Picks

NFL Point Spreads For Week 7 - Week Seven NFL Football Point Spread - NFL Spreads 10/19 - 10/20, 2014

Date & Time	Favorite	Spread	Underdog
10/19 1:00 ET	At Indianapolis	-3.5	Cincinnati
10/19 1:00 ET	At Washington	-6.5	Tennessee
10/19 1:00 ET	At Chicago	-3	Miami
10/19 1:00 ET	Cleveland	-4.5	At Jacksonville
10/19 1:00 ET	Seattle	-6.5	At St. Louis
10/19 1:00 ET	At Green Bay	-6.5	Carolina
10/19 1:00 ET	At Baltimore	-6.5	Atlanta
10/19 1:00 ET	At Buffalo	-6	Minnesota
10/19 1:00 ET	At Detroit	-1	New Orleans
10/19 4:05 ET	At San Diego	-3.5	Kansas City
10/19 4:25 ET	At Dallas	-5	NY Giants
10/19 4:25 ET	Arizona	-3.5	At Oakland
10/19 8:30 ET	At Denver	-6.5	San Francisco

   Monday Night Football Point Spread

10/20 8:30 ET	At Pittsburgh	-3	Houston

- Cincinatti faces a few key injuries and suspensions.  The Colts at home are on a hot streak and look for it to continue.

- Jake Locker is out again- look for the Redskins to take advantage of the Titans at home.

- Miami comes off a close loss against the Packers- the Bears look to win at Home.  

- Cleveland might be actually good.  Vegas sees this as a trap game, but Cleveland should win by at least a touchdown.

- Seattle comes off a tough loss.  I'll take St. Louis to keep it close, especially since there is no Percy Harvin.

- Atlanta has a habit of keeping games like this close

- The Lions are without Calving Johnson, the Saints get back Mark Ingram.  Look for the Saints to end the trend of losing on the road.

- Buffalo looks to get an easy win after losing to the Patrios.  Homefield and a lower quality opponent should allow them to take the Vikings.

- As a result of a bye, Kansas City is rested.  San Diego may be resting on their laurels, I think Kansas City has a good chance at an upset.

- Dallas is playing out of it's mind while the giants just got trashed by the Eagles.  I think Dallas is playing at a different level right now, have to take them to continue the trend.

- Arizona beats the spread.

- The Broncos have too many offensive weapons and the 49ers defense could get steamrolled. I think the Broncos defense has enough to limit the 49ers offense.  I'm taking the Broncos.

- The Steelers come off an embarassing loss to the Browns.  Still I think the Steelers defense should contain the Texans offense, and the Steelers may wake up and play the Texans who are suceptible to the run.  I am taking the Steelers here.