2025 Week 1 NFL Picks

New York Giants (+6) @ Washington Commanders- The Commanders closed last season strong but somehow struggled against division opponent.  The Giants only had 3 wins.  That being said, the Commanders were never able to beat a division oppoenent by more than 5 points.  

There is hope that the Washington Commander's defense is improved.  However, the Commanders offense still appears to have some kinks to be worked out especially since Terry McClaurin was a late addition to the team due to a contract dispute.  

The Giants front seven may present problems for Washington although Washington has upgraded their offensive line with the addition of Jeremy Tunsil and the drafting of Connerly.  Plus Amos and Lattimore are much better corners than what Washington threw at Malik Nabers last season who only had 59 yards in his last game.  I could see a close game since Washington looked rusty although maybe they can get their running game going with Ekeler and "Bill" Croskey Merritt seeing a bigger role with the departure of Brian Robinson to the 49ers. 

Pittsburgh Steelers (-3) @ New York Jets-  Aaron Rodgers has been quiet this offseason as both teams will have former quarterbacks playing one another.   The advantage may slightly favor the Steelers since Tomlin is a returning coach whereas the Jets will feature Aaron Glenn.   This could be a low scoring ugly game that could favor the team that makes less mistakes which could be Aaron Rodgers although I am skeptical of him being consistent.  Although Rodgers could be improved with more time coming off an Achilles, his age makes me nervous and could hesitate under pressure which was the case last season.

Carolina Panthers (+3.5) @ Jacksonville Jaguars-  The Panthers closed last season strong even though the Jaguars have the potential to improve their offense from last season/

Arizona Cardinals (-6.5) @ New Orleans Saints - The Cardinals are going against hte Saints who could be more energetic out the gate at home but still may need to overcome their quarterback room which seems like one of the worst from last season.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-2.5)(LOCK) @ Atlanta Falcons-  The Bucs could have easily beaten the Commanders in the playoffs.  They go against an inexperienced Penix who had some decent moments last season but could struggle against a stingy Tampa defense who did a good job defending the run.  Bijan needs to get going otherwise it could be a long day for the Falcons who struggled to defend the pass. Mike Evans could have a big game assuming he can still keep playing well in his 30s.

Cincinnati Bengals (-5.5) @ Cleveland Browns -  The Bengals want to avoid getting out to a slow start as they have the past couple of seasons.  The Browns are a well coach team under and Joe Flacco did have his best stretch recently with the Browns when he won comeback player of the year a few years ago.  That being said, the Bengals should not be rusty given that they played most of their starters in preseason and I would expect the Bengals to pounce on the Browns at least on the offensive side of the ball.  With Hendrickson back in the fold, it is imperative for the Browns to get their running game going with Ford.

Las Vegas Raiders (+2.5) @ New England Patriots- Expect a low scoring game between the Raiders and Patriots.  The Drake Maye hype train meets reality when the Raiders will likely throw some interesting looks at the 2nd year players way. Henderson will be future heavily with the Pats.  Homefield should allow the Pats to come out ahead but I expect a close game especially since the Raiders have upgraded the quarterback postion from Minshew to Geno Smith as well as Bowers the tight end looking like the best offensive weapon that both teams have.  It will be interesting to monitor how much Steffon Diggs can add to the Patriots passing game.  

Tennessee Titans @ Denver Broncos (-8)-  The Titans will feature rookie Cam Ward.  It appears that he will be a massive upgrade but the Broncos have been one of the most improved teams once Sean Payton got his QBof the future in Bo Nix.  Although many are prediciting that the Broncos could make a super bowl run, I wonder if anybody is expecting a regression from Bo Nix throughout the season.  Still JK Dobbins will likely have a featured role with the Broncos early and it could spell trouble for the Titans on the Road.

Detroit Lions @ Green Bay Packers (-2.5)-  It looks as if the Packers are the offseason winners with the Micah Parsons addition but as a Washington fan I have been dissapointed several times from winning the offseason under Dan Snyder.  Still the Packers appear to be the most stable organization in football and many are predicting a potential Super Bowl run.  Perhaps the Lions have try to force the runnign game down teh Packers throat as many have been critical of Parson inablity to stop the run at least that's how Cowboys fans are coping with this trade.   Still, the Lions may look a bit shaky with the departure of their offensive coordinators, although they may be significantly healthier than the last time we saw them in the playoffs.

Houston Texans(+3) @ Los Angeles Rams-  This is an intriguing matchup given that the Rams have essentially swapped Cooper Kupp for Davante Adams, although Adams looks slightly worse, granted he did have subpar QB play with both the Raiders and the Jets.   Stafford looks to be less than 100 percent given the reprots.   It feels like CJ Stroud could bounce back from a relatively dissapointing season for himself given the showing he had in 2024.  Although the Rams running game may give the Rams in this one.  It will be interesting to see which running back emerges with the lion share of the carries after week 1.

Baltimore Ravens @ Buffalo Bills (-1.5) - This could a future playoff matchup.  Either team could come up on top.  The Ravens are looking to shake off a dissappointing loss while the Bills are still rueing over the spot that they got in the Chiefs game that could have put them in the Super Bowl.  For now I am favoring Allen and the homefield advantage although Lamar Jackson putting up an MVP like performance or Derrick Henry dominating the running game is also in the cards.

Minnesota Vikings (-1.5) @ Chicago Bears- It looks as if the Caleb WIlliams may struggle out the gate with Ben Johnson as a head coach at least in the first couple of weeks.  The Bears offense could be more diverse but it may struggle against a Vikings defense that knows how to pressure QBs.   

2024 Straight up- 109-58

2024 Against the Spread- 78-77

2024 Week 12 Picks

The Detroit Lions are reportedly interested in Daniel Jones

(via Mike Payton)

Minnesota Vikings (-3.5) @ Chicago Bears- The Bears could come out with a better effort against the Vikings but have consistently been losing games like this.  

Detroit Lions (-7.5) @ Indianapolis Colts - The Colts looked sharpers against the Jets but Anthony Richardson is still inconsistent and the Lions are on a heater.

New England Patriots (+7) @ Miami Dolphins - For now I am tempted to pick the Patriots to keep it close because of Drake Maye's good play although it looks as if the Patriots are a bit shorthanded when it comes to their offensive weapons.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-5.5) @ New York Giants- The Giants have the 4th worst rushing defense this season which could allow Bucky Irving to have a big game.  

Dallas Cowboys @ Washington Commanders (-10.5) - Washington has lost their last two weeks but could take care of a Dallas Cowboys team that is starting Cooper Rush.

Kansas City Chiefs @ Carolina Panthers(+11)- The Panthers come in on a two game winning streak.  Yes the Chiefs are the superior team although they have not taken care of business against the spread so far this season.

Tennessee Titans @ Houston Texans (-8.5)- The Titans offense may be the worst in the league while the Texans look for a win here to secure the division.

Denver Broncos @ Las Vegas Raiders (+5.5) - The Raiders have struggled lately although they have had some close games against competitive teams like the Chiefs and have pulled off upsets against the Ravens.  Still the Broncos are playing at a high level after a dominant performance against the Falcons.

San Francisco 49ers @ Green Bay Packers (-2.5)(LOCK) - The 49ers appear to be struggling and will be without Brock Purdy.  Brandon Allen, his replacement, is only 2-7 as a starting quarterback.

Arizona Cardinals(-1) @ Seattle Seahawks - Seattle is coming off a nice win against the 49ers.  The Cardinals are on a 4 game winning streak while Seattle has lost its last 4 games at home.

Philadelphia Eagles @ Los Angeles Rams (+3)- This could be a toss up game especially since the Rams need this game much more than the Eagles to compete in the tough NFC West.

Baltimore Ravens (-3) @ Los Angeles Chargers - The Ravens are slightly favorites in the Harbaugh bowl because of the advantage not only of their QB but having Derrick Henry.   The Ravens are also coming off a loss and could be playing with a sense of desperation.  

Week 11 Against the Spread- 4-10

Week 11 Straight up – 9-5

Week 11 Locks - 0-1

2024 Against the Spread- 78-77

2024 Straight up- 109-58

2024 Locks – 10-8-1

2024 Week 11 Picks

On October 13th, Caleb Williams had 9 TDs and 5 interceptions.  

On November 17th, he still has 9 TDs and 5 Interceptions (via @wesskywalker)

 Washington Commanders @ Philadelphia Eagles (-3.5) - Washington is coming off a short week and their defense has had trouble slowing down the run. 

Green Bay Packers (-6.5) @ Chicago Bears - The Bears defense could slow down the Packers although Caleb William's inconsistency as of late may allow the Packers to take an early lead.

Jacksonville Jaguars(-13) @ Detroit Lions- The Lions could potentially blow out the Jaguars although Trevor Lawrence has been playing slightly better lately.

Minnesota Vikings @ Tennessee Titans (+6) - The Vikings playing away from home could make this game relatively close although they can still be explosive and run away with the game.

Las Vegas Raiders (+8) @ Miami Dolphins - Tyreek Hill is a bit banged up.  The Raiders are slightly worse with Tua back but have at times played teams like the Chiefs and Rams close on the road.  

Los Angeles Rams @ New England Patriots(+4.5)- Being an away game for the Rams could allow the Patriots with a way to compete and Drake Maye has been playing well.

Cleveland Browns @ New Orleans Saints (-1) - Derek Carr is back playing against former Saints quarterback Jameis Winston.  

Indianapolis Colts @ New York Jets (-4) - The Jets will face Anthony Richardson.  Both teams are heading the wrong direction.

Baltimore Ravens (-3)(LOCK) @ Pittsburgh Steelers - The Steelers played well against the Commanders but will be tested against the Ravens who should give them a healthy dose of Derrick Henry.  

Atlanta Falcons (+2.5) @ Denver Broncos - The Falcons could pull out a road win here although Kirk Cousins will need to be on point in the altitude in Denver.  

Seattle Seahawks (+6.5) @ San Francisco 49ers - The Seahawks could make the division game close as George Kittle is out with a hamstring injury although Christian McCaffrey is back in the lineup.

Kansas City Chiefs (+2.5) @ Buffalo Bills-  A toss up game.  The Chiefs may be locked in order to secure homefield in the playoffs although they have a slight cushion in the NFL standings.  

Cincinnati Bengals  @ Los Angeles Chargers (-1.5)- The Chargers on a whole are a more well rounded team in terms of their defense which could give them the slight edge but I wouldn't rule out Burrow and Chase for teaming up for some explosive plays.

Dallas Cowboys (+7.5) @ Houston Texans - Theoretically could be a blow out although the Texans have been playing down to the level of their competition in games against the Jets and Colts and do not seem as explosive without Diggs.  

Week 10 Against the Spread- 7-7

Week 10Straight up – 10-5

Week 10 Locks - 1-1

2024 Against the Spread- 78-77

2024 Locks – 10-7-1

2024 Straight up- 100-53

2024 Week 10 Picks

Dak Prescott is planning to have season ending surgery

according to ESPN

New York Giants @ Carolina Panthers (+6) - The Giants are not terrible but perhaps the Panthers can keep it to a one score game.

New England Patriots (+6) @ Chicago Bears - Caleb Williams has been struggling over the past two games and goes against Drake Maye.  The Bears defense should make life difficult for Maye although the Bears propensity to not show up is making me wonder to go against them.   This is a must win game for the Bears as their schedule gets significantly harder after this not to mention that every other team in their division is playing well.   

Buffalo Bills (-4) @ Indianapolis Colts - The Colts were not able to hold to their lead against the Vikings.  Flacco and the Colts put up only 13 points.  The Colts offense should be stronger against the Bills although Buffalo could make it a higher scoring affair.

Denver Broncos @ Kansas City Chiefs (-8.5)- It could be a long day for Bo Nix against the Chiefs defense at Arrowhead.  Only question is if Patrick Mahomes can finally get it going and put the hammer down on the Broncos.

Atlanta Falcons (-3.5) @ New Orleans Saints - The Falcons under Cousins seem to be one of the stronger offenses in the NFL.  The Falcons barely came away with a win the last time these two teams played although the Saints appear to be going in a different direction with injuries to their wide receivers and Carr has reverted back to an inconsistent quarterback  

San Francisco 49ers (-5.5) @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers - All signs point to Christian McCaffrey making his return.  Tampa did keep it close against the Chiefs, and the 49ers are traveling from East to West.  Still the 49ers are coming off a bye and look to build momentum for a playoff run.  

Pittsburgh Steelers @ Washington Commanders (-3)-  This could be a close game but the Commanders could be favored based on their ability to run the ball and their quarterback play.  They still have to continue to protect the ball against a feisty Steelers defense.

Minnesota Vikings (-4)(LOCK) @ Jacksonville Jaguars - I don't think anyone had Sam Darnold outplaying Trevor Lawrence but it looks like that is where the Vikings hold the advantage not to mention their superior head coach.   

Tennessee Titans @ Los Angeles Chargers (-7.5)  - The Chargers have secured their last two wins by 17 points or more and look to continue that trend against a hapless Titans team.

Philadelphia Eagles (-7.5) @ Dallas Cowboys - Cooper Rush is 5-1 as a starter.  Still the Eagles are playing great football although they have a propensity to be inconsistent, the recent trend shows the Eagles competing hard to win the division.  

New York Jets @ Arizona Cardinals(-1) - Both teams are coming off wins.   It looks as though the Cardinals are playing better football throughout the season although the Jets building a winning streak is not out of the question

Detroit Lions (-3.5) @ Houston Texans - Houston could have trouble slowing down the Lions' running which could lead to a higher scoring game.  Diggs being out could hurt the Texans offense.

Miami Dolphins @ Los Angeles Rams (-2.5) (LOCK)- Perhaps there will be a large Dolphins contingent in LA but the Rams look like the superior team.  

Week 9 Against the Spread- 5-10

Week 9 Straight up – 12-3

Week 9 Locks - 1-0

2024 Against the Spread- 71-70

2024 Locks – 9-6-1

2024 Straight up- 90-48

2024 Week 9 Picks

Joe Flacco gets $100,000 if the Colts wins and he plays 50% of the offensive snaps 

Dallas Cowboys (+2.5) @ Atlanta Falcons - The Cowboys are in desperation mode needing a win here.  They looked fairly competent at times against the 49ers but ultimately came up short.  If the Cowboys lose, Mike McCarthy's chances of surviving this season greatly diminish.

Miami Dolphins @ Buffalo Bills (-6) - Typically one could assume a close division rivalry game.  But Tua looks a bit conservative in his level of play which could make the battle slightly more uphill on the road in a division rivalry game.

Las Vegas Raiders (+7) @ Cincinnati Bengals - The Bengals defense has usually kept their opponents in games.  The Raiders could be in trouble though if this game becomes a shootout.   

Los Angeles Chargers (+2) @ Cleveland Browns - This could be a trap game for the Chargers who are traveling from west to east.  Still, Jameis Winston has been an up and down player in his career and the Chargers defense will see if they can force some turnovers.

New England Patriots (+3.5) @ Tennessee Titans - Both teams are fairly evenly matched and perhaps the Patriots can continue some of their momentum to make this a close game with Drake Maye back in the lineup.  

Washington Commanders @ New York Giants - The Commanders could be due for a let down against the Giants after a miraculous win against the Bears.  Still, it seems like Washington will not take the Giants lightly after a close game in week 2.  Washington did move the ball well but will need to convert in the red zone- a problem they also had against the Bears.   Washington's defense has looked sharper although they will need to be on point against Jones who has had some success against Washington in past seasons.  

New Orleans Saints (-7) @ Carolina Panthers - Derek Carr makes his return.  He could be rusty but the Saints already blew out the Panthers earlier this season.

Denver Broncos (+9.5) @ Baltimore Ravens - This could be a get right game for the Ravens after a terrible loss to the Broncos.  Still this seems like a lot of points especially since the Broncos have been competitive lately.   

Chicago Bears (+1) @ Arizona Cardinals - Interesting game against two teams competing for a playoff spot.  Caleb Williams could bounce back and the Bears defense may be the separating factor of this game.

Detroit Lions @ Green Bay Packers (+3.5) - The Packers will have Jordan Love against this one and the Lions while having impressive victories will finally be tested on the road in a division game.

Seattle Seahawks @ Los Angeles Rams (-1.5)(LOCK) - I didn't get the memo last week, but it looks like the Rams are finally healthy.  It could be tough on the road for the Rams, but the overreaction from beating the Vikings could be that the Rams could make a potential playoff run.

Indianapolis Colts (+5.5) @  Minnesota Vikings-  Joe Flacco could do enough to keep this game close.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Kansas City Chiefs (-9)- The Chiefs have routinely kept their opponents in games but the Bucs are dealing with a fair share of injuries that may force them to tap out if Mahomes shows up.    

Week 8 Against the Spread- 11-5

Week 8 Straight up – 11-5

Week 8 Locks - 3-0

2024 Against the Spread- 66-60

2024 Locks – 8-6-1

2024 Straight up- 78-45

2024 Week 8 Picks

Cleveland Browns'Myles Garrett

dresses up as Terminator before the Ravens game 

Minnesota Vikings @ Los Angeles Rams -  The Vikings look to continue their winning ways coming off a bye although Puka has returned back to the lineup.

Philadelphia Eagles (+2.5) @ Cincinnati Bengals - The Bengals offense has played better lately although their defense hasn't been tested in a few weeks.  The Eagles are looing to keep pace with the Commanders who beat the Bengals on the road earlier this season. With AJ Brown's return, the Eagles look slightly better than the Bengals although perhaps the Eagles play down to their competition.   

Baltimore Ravens @ Cleveland Browns(+9) - Perhaps the Browns can keep it close against a division rival although Lamar Jackson running up the score is a distinct possibility.  

Tennessee Titans @ Detroit Lions (-11) - The Lions are looking to put the hammer down on the Titans who look like one of the worst teams in the NFL this season. 

Arizona Cardinals(+3) @ Miami Dolphins - Tua makes his return meaning a possible revival of Tyreek Hill.  There could be some rust but the Dolphins appear to not be a pushover.  

New York Jets @ New England Patriots (+7)-  The Jets seems to be in perpetual laughing stock although they will get a potential break in playing the Patriots.  Drake Maye will make another start who showed flashes but also committed a few turnovers.

Atlanta Falcons @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+2.5) - The Bucs are looking to avenge an overtime loss to the Falcons earlier in the season.  The Falcons are looking to add to its road wins which include games against the Eagles and Panthers.

Green Bay Packers(-4.5) @ Jacksonville Jaguars - The Jaguars are coming off a win against the lowly Patriots but the Packers are coming off 3 straight wins and looking to continue that trend to keep up with the Lions.

Indianapolis Colts @ Houston Texans (-6) - The games between these two division rivals have been lose although the Texans appear to be playing with an axe to grind after a close loss to the Packers.  

New Orleans Saints @ Los Angeles Chargers (-7.5) - The Saints look like a shell of their former self without Derek Carr.  The Chargers are coming off a close loss to the Cardinals and look to regain their form.

Buffalo Bills @ Seattle Seahawks(+3.5) - The Bills are a bit banged with their middle line backer Bernard out.  The Seahawks will be without DK Metcalf so the Bills have a chance to pull out a road win here.  

Carolina Panthers @ Denver Broncos (-9) - The Panthers surge with Andy Dalton appears to have been a blip in the pan while the Broncos could run up the score if Bo Nix plays well.

Kansas City Chiefs @ Las Vegas Raiders (+10) - The Antonio Pierce led Raiders did manage to play spoiler against the Chiefs last season.  Mahomes does get a new weapon in DeAndre Hopkins although it could take a bit for him to get acclimated.  

Chicago Bears @ Washington Commanders (-1.5)(LOCK) - It looks like Jayden Daniels will play despite the rib injury.  The battle of the number 1 and number 2 picks should be a fun matchup.  The Commanders secondary will be interesting to watch in how it deals with Caleb Williams.  

Dallas Cowboys @ San Francisco 49ers (-4.5)(LOCK) - The Cowboys are coming off a bye to lick its wounds only to face a 49ers team that is looking to rebound from a tough loss to the Chiefs.  It looks like the 49ers just have the Cowboys number.  Dak Prescott needs to show something here for the Cowboys to be taken more seriously in the postseason.

New York Giants @ Pittsburgh Steelers (-6.5)(LOCK) - Daniel Jones was benched against the Eagles.  Things could get ugly here for whoever the Giants decide to roll out at quarterback against a Steelers team that has given the keys to Russell Wilson as a quarterback.   

Week 5 Against the Spread- 6-9

Week 5 Straight up – 7-7

2024 Against the Spread- 55-54

2024 Locks – 5-6-1

2024 Straight up- 67-40

2024 Week 6 Picks

According to Jonathan Jones,  Robert Saleh considered firing Nathaniel Hackett before getting fired himself

San Francisco 49ers (- 3.5) @ Seattle Seahawks - Two teams are coming off surprising losses.   For now I give the edge to the 49ers given Kyle Shanahan's coaching acumen but the Seahawks keeping it close would not be surprising especially with all the injuries the 49ers have been dealing with.  

Jacksonville Jaguars(+2.5) @ Chicago Bears - The Jaguars look to continue their streak of winning at London.

Washington Commanders(+7)(LOCK) @ Baltimore Ravens - It has been some time since the Commanders were featured in the game of the week category.   Both teams have QBs that have been playing lights out (Daniels/Jackson), great running attacks, and tight ends who have been considered washed up (Ertz/Andrews).   The Ravens pass defense has been in question especially with their defensive coordinator going to the Seattle.   Certainly a toss up game, unless the Ravens see something from the game film and can dissect how Daniels has been doing.   

Tampa Bay Bucs (-3.5) @ New Orleans Saints - Derek Carri s out with an injury.  The Bucs suffered a bad loss to Atlanta and this game is a relatively must win given that their schedule gets much harder over the next five (Ravens, Falcons, Chiefs, 49ers).  

Detroit Lions (-3) @ Dallas Cowboys -  The Cowboys pulled out a nice win against Pittsburgh.  The Lions are coming off a bye and look to be a superior team than the Steelers especially in the passing attack.  

Cleveland Browns(+8.5) @ Philadelphia Eagles - DeShaun Watson has reached epic levels of terrible.  Although maybe the Browns can continue the streak of teas that play Washington getting a win.  Maybe but unlikely given the Eagles are coming off a bye and getting AJ Brown back from an injury.

Arizona Cardinals(+5) @ Green Bay Packers - Kyler Murray and the Cardinals looked impressive against the 49ers.  They go against another former Washington assistant head coach in Matt LaFleur.  The Packers might be on par with the injury riddled 49ers plus I'm not sure how consistent the Cardinals are even coming off a win.  

Los Angeles Chargers @ Denver Broncos (+3) -  The Chargers are coming off a bye and a  quality loss to the Chiefs where they were held scoreless after the first quarter against the Chiefs.  Still, everything seems to be clicking for the Broncos. who are on a 3 game winning streak.

Pittsburgh Steelers (-3) @ Las Vegas Raiders - The Steelers look to get right in Las Vegas.  Right now the Steelers seem to be playing better although Fields inconsistency could allow the Raiders to perhaps pull out an upset.  

Houston Texans (-7)(LOCK) @ New England Patriots - The Patriots appear to be a true work in progress and for now appear to be one of the worst teams in the NFL.  Complacency by the Texans could allow the Patriots to remain in the game although an upset seems unlikely.  

Indianapolis Colts (-1) @ Tennessee Titans - The Titans are coming off a bye and Michael Pittman is out with an injury.  In the short term the Colts seem more likely to win if Flacco plays although Richardson may still do enough.  

Atlanta Falcons @ Carolina Panthers (+6) - Two teams that are playing at polar opposites.  Hard to say how the Falcons will play in a easy game but for now one has to project a win against the Panthers whose defense has ben playing at abysmal levels.  

Cincinnati Bengals (-4) @ New York Giants - The Giants are coming off a nice win against the Seahawks.  If the Giants win this game, perhaps the NFC East will be considered significantly stronger then AFC North.   

Buffalo Bills (-4) @ New York Jets - The Jets are testing the theory of winning after firing a head coach.  I would give the Jets a better chance to win the game if they had actually lost to a team that wasn't good last week since the Vikings are undefeated and if Robert Saleh firing coincided with the firing of Nathaniel Hackett. 

Week 5 Against the Spread- 6-8

Week 5 Straight up – 7-7

Week 5 Locks – 2-0

2024 Against the Spread- 39-41

2024 Locks – 4-6

2024 Straight up- 46-32