Sunday, January 22, 2017

Conference Championship Picks









Green Bay (+6) @ Atlanta-

Aaron Rodgers is 5 for 8 on passes over 30
yards in the final minute of play.  The rest of the league is 4 of 44.


I have the Falcons winning.  Nonetheless, Aaron Rodgers has been very sharp and could keep it close in what should be a high scoring affair..

The Packers defense had its moments against Dak Prescott forcing a few interceptions.  That being said, Matt Ryan and Julio Jones look to exploit the Packers' secondary plus the Facons' running game is also strong.  

While the Falcons will have their hands full with Aaron Rodgers, Atlanta's defense was solid against Seattle.  After giving up a game opening TD drive, the Falcons defense settled in and forced a few interceptions and a safety.  Overall, Atlanta's defense should also receive a boost from being at home in what will be the final game at the Georgia Dome.

Pittsburgh @ New England (-6)-



The Patriots are now 15-0 with Dion Lewis in the lineup and look to continue that trend versus the Steelers.  Big Ben did struggle especially in the red zone versus the Chiefs and the Steelers' defense did show that they were vulnerable to the deep ball against the Chiefs.  While Alex Smith was unable to take advantage due to a few inaccurate throws and key drops, that should not be the case for Tom Brady.  The Patriots lack of a pass rush is a concern and their strength of schedule throughout the season has been fairly weak.  Still, these are the games that New England typically wins which are at home and against Pittsburgh in what has largely been a one side rivalry since Tom Brady has joined the Patriots.

My picks can also be found on the Sports on the Hill Podcast at the 1 hour 30 minute mark.

 Division Picks against the spread: 3-1
Wild Card Picks straight up: 4-0
2016-17 Season: 140-114-7
Straight up(since week 9)- 99-45



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Saturday, January 14, 2017

Division picks

My picks can also be found on the Sports on the Hill Podcast at the 1 hour 27:15 minute mark.

Seattle @ Atlanta (-6.5) - 
Ryan and Wilson face off for the 2nd time in the postseason
they last met in 2013 when Ryan and the Falcons
defeated the Seahawks in the division playoff round

The Falcons and the Seahawks played in the regular season in what turned out to be a nail biting 26-24 victory for the Seahawks.  Since then, Seattle's defense has struggled immensely since losing Earl Thomas for the season.  Kyle Shanahan's offense with Matt Ryan, Julio Jones, and Devonta Freeman look to exploit that weakness.    While I have Atlanta winning, it could be a close game given that Seattle has been running the ball well with Thomas Rawls and Atlanta's defense can be exploited given their weak secondary.  


The Steelers defense looks to pressure Alex Smith 
Pittsburgh (+1) @ Kansas City -  Pittsburgh matched up well with the Chiefs in a 43-14 blowout in the beginning of the season.  This game should be closer, especially since the Chiefs are coming off a bye and are at home, although that advantage could be diminished since Pittsburgh fans travel well.  This game should favor the Steelers given that they have the superior running game with LeVeon Bell.  While Pittsburgh is not as good defensively as Kansas City, they do present problems for the Chiefs given that quarterback Alex Smith has struggled against the defensive packages that exposes Smith's lack of arm strength.  
 
Osweiler did beat the Patriots when he was with the Broncos in 2015
Houston @ New England (-16) - The Texans lost to the Patriots 27-0 in Week 3 and this game does not look any easier for the road team.  While Houston is looking to make up for a poor performance, the odds may be stacked against them given that it is in a cold weather.  New England will be playing with Tom Brady and Dion Lewis who did not play in Week 3.


Aaron Rodgers is looking to get revenge against the Cowboys
after Green Bay lost 30-16 to Dallas  earlier this season
Green Bay (+5) @ Dallas  - While Green Bay's win was impressive against the Giants, they did it largely against a Giants team that had bad turnovers and could not run the ball and had a poor scoring differential.  Still, the Packers are on fire offensively as Aaron Rodgers is completing Hail Mary plays as routine ones.  If Rodgers is sharp, the Packers could expose the Cowboys secondary.  The key of course will be for the Packers to contain Ezekiel Elliot and force Prescott into a few bad decisions.  The Packers also should not forget about Dez Bryant who is looking to get revenge against the Packers after a controversial call that caused the Cowboys to lose to the Packers in 2015 postseason.


Wild Card Picks against the Spread: 2-2
Wild Card Picks Straight Up: 4-0
2016-17 Season: 137-113-7
Straight Up(since week 9): 95-45
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Saturday, January 7, 2017

Wild Card Picks

My picks can also be found on the Sports on the Hill Podcast at the 1 hour 47 minute mark.

Jadeveon Clowney hopes to pressure the Raiders' offense 
who was just named to 2nd team All-Pro alongwith
linebacker Benardrick McKinney

Oakland @ Houston (-3.5) - ESPN is paying $100 million to air this game but could lose a total of $75 million because of the lack of ratings.  Brock Osweiler may be the best quarterback in the game but that's only because Oakland is starting their 3rd string quarterback Connor Cook.  Both teams run the ball well although the Texans defense on paper have the advantage.

Detroit @ Seattle (-8) -

Seattle could get a boost by signing Devin Hester to return both punts and kicks.

Despite losing to the Cardinals in week 16, the Seahawks are still 7-1 at home.  Matt Stafford has not looked the same since injuring his finger and the Lions will also have to overcome a season ending injury to Theo Riddick.  Plus Detroit come into the game losing their past 3 games, having an 0-5 record against playoff tams, and have not won a play game in 25 years.   While Seattle may have concerns about getting their offense going due injuries to their offensive line, the Seahawks play better at the home especially against non-divison opponents.



Big Ben struggled in 30-15 loss to the Dolphins in Week 6


Miami (+10.5) @ Pittsburgh - The Steelers could make up for a poor performance against the Dolphins, especially since Ben Roethlisberger is healthy.  Still, the Dolphins have won two games in cold weather against the Jets and Bills on the road in December to clinch a playoff birth.  The Steelers homefield advantage should carry them through but expect a game within single digits especially since Pittsburgh has had close games to close out the season against the Bengals and Ravens.

New York Giant (+5) @ Green Bay - The Giants defense has looked great this season and are priming up for another Super Bowl run.  That being said, the Packers offense are playing much better as they have won 6 consecutive games.  While the Packers homefield advantage should help them come away with a victory, Eli Manning has won 2 games in Lambeau and gone on to win Super Bowls both times, meaning it could be decided by a field goal or less.  

Week 17 against the Spread: 7-9
Week 17 Straight Up: 10-6
2016-17 Season: 135-111-7
Straight Up(since week 9): 91-45
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Sunday, January 1, 2017

Week 17 Pick

Baltimore (-2.5) @ Cincinnati- Neither team has anything to play for.  Consider Baltimore the slight favorites here as they looked impressive but fell short against the Steelers while the Bengals still look a bit out of sorts without AJ Green in the lineup.

Buffalo (-3.5) @ New York Jets- Buffalo is out of the playoffs and fired Rex Ryan but looked solid against the Dolphins.  The Jets have struggled in blowout losses in consecutive weeks to the Patriots and Dolphins.  The Bills are looking to make up for a poor performance in a 37-31 loss in week 2.  Fitzpatrick's record this season as a starting QB is 2-8 and the change to colder weather conditions may favor the Bills.

Carolina @ Tampa Bay (-3.5) - The Buccaneers needs a lot of help to get in including a Washington loss but should be motivated to come away with a win.  Carolina came back to earth against the Falcons after a nice win against Washington.

 Chicago (+6) @ Minnesota -
Jordan Howard looks to set the single rookie season rushing record,
needing only 63 yards to pass Matt Forte.

Everyone was talking up Matt Barkely last week but it didn't work out too well as he threw 5 interceptions against Washington.  The Vikings are now 2-8 after starting the season 5-0.  With nothing to playoff, Minnesota is the slight favorites although the Bears have kept it close in their last couple of games against their division rivals.

Cleveland @ Pittsburgh (-4) -
Robert Griffin is cleared to play after suffering a concussion.

The Steelers are still the favorites as the Browns could be due for a let down after beating the Chargers.

Dallas (+6.5) @ Philadelphia - The Eagles look frisky with Lane Johnson returning from his 10 game suspension.   The Cowboys have already clinched homefield, nonetheless played hard in a meaningless game for them against the Detroit Lions.  The Cowboys certainly have capable backups at the skill positions which could make this a close game where Philadelphia should come out on top because they are playing at home.

Green Bay @ Detroit (-3.5)-
It may come down to Stafford in the closing possessions of the game.


The winner of this game will ultimately win the division and the loser may miss the playoffs.  The Packers are on have the momentum in this game given that they have won their past 5 games but the Lions could keep it close considering they are 6-1 at home.  The Lions will be without Theo Riddick which could hurt their chances to win the game, but will get back corner Darius Slay.   Green Bay may be the slight favorites but it could come down to crunchtime in the 4th quarter.

Houston (+3) @ Tennessee -  Consider the Texans slight favorites with Mariota
out for the season in a meaningless game.  Houston looks to sweep the division for the first time in its franchise history.

Jacksonville (+5) @ Indianapolis -
 Frank Gore only needs 37 yards to add another 1000 rushing season to his resume. 

The Jaguars played well against an injured riddled Titans team.  The Colts may be motivated to win this game to help keep Chuck Pagano's head coaching job.  While the Colts should win, the Jaguars could make it interesting considering the effort they put forth in a 38-17 victory against the Titans.

 New England (-9.5) @ Miami - New England looks to earn a win to gain homefield advantage throughout the playoffs while the Dolphins may rest their starters as Miami has already clinched a playoff spot.

New Orleans @ Atlanta (-7.5) - The Falcons are playing for a bye week and Matt Ryan tries to solidify his case for MVP.  While the Saints offense has looked great the last couple of weeks, New Orleans has shown they are not as good on the road.

NY Giants (+7) @ Washington - Washington needs this game to keep what little chance it has the playoffs alive.  The Giants have a history of not resting its starters in meaningless games including a 38-35 loss to the Patriots in week 17 of 2007.  Washington is more likely than not to come away with a win but the game could be close considering the Redskins and the Giants are division rivals and the Giants are looking to even the season series.

 Arizona (-7) @ LA- The Cardinals look to close the season strong after beating Seattle on the road.  The Rams still look like they are in shell shock as the firing of Jeff Fisher has done little to improve the teams play in the short term.

 Kansas City (-4.5) @ San Diego- Kansas City is still playing for a first round bye and hopes to beat a the Chargers who just lost to the Cleveland Browns.

Seattle @ San Francisco (+10.5) - Seattle should win as they will likely try to make up for a poor performance and try to keep their hopes of a first round bye alive.  Although the 49ers did play well against the Rams last week and could keep the game within single digits.

 Oakland(-1) @ Denver - Oakland's backup QB Matt McGloin looked solid on a 3rd down conversion to clinch the game against the Colts.  The Broncos defense is a different animal but could struggle due to its offense, especially because of its offensive line which has suffered a few key injuries.

Week 16 against the spread: 9-7
Week 16 straight up: 11-5
Season against the Spread: 128-102-7
Straight up (since week 9)- 81-39
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Thursday, December 22, 2016

Week 16 Picks

My picks and my thoughts on the Wizards can also be found on Sports on the Hill at 14 min 06  sec mark.  My most up to date picks can be found here.


Head coach Ben McAdoo was fined for using a walkie-talkie

New York Giants (+1) @ Philadelphia -




  Philadelphia did play the Ravens close and return home, and it's a division rivalry game that favors the home team.  Still, the Giants defense has playing out of its mind over the past 9 weeks and the Eagles offense has been questionable especially since they have failed to log a win against a division opponent.  

Atlanta (-2.5) @ Carolina -



Julio Jones had 300 yards last time.  While it is a rivalry game, the Falcons are the superior offensive team.  The Panthers looked much better against Washington although they will likely be without Luc Keachly again.

Miami(+3.5) @ Buffalo -



Miami did come away with a win in cold weather conditions against the Jets and look to continue the trend.  The only team the Bills have beaten with a winning record is the 12-2 New England Patriots who were without Tom Brady.

Washington (-3) @ Chicago -



The Bears have lost 3 consecutive games by 3 points but all to division rivals.   Washington really needs this game although it could be tough.  Alshon Jeffery is back and Matt Barkely has been playing well.  A potential trap game for Washington, but they are still playing for a playoff birth.  

New York Jets @ New England (-16.5) - The Jets look like they are falling apart after a big loss to the Dolphins where the Patriots appear to be finding their rhythm.  New England will try to make up for a poor performance when they beat the Jets by less than a touchdown.  

San Diego (-5.5) @ Cleveland - San Diego kept it close against a Raiders team.  Nobody wants to lose to the Browns.  RG3 did beat the Chargers back in 2013 in OT.

Tennessee (5) @ Jacksonville - 

The Titans look to run the ball to victory like they did against Kansas City.

Brian Orakpo, who was just named to the pro bowl, leads the Titans defense 


Minnesota @ Green Bay (-6.5) -

 Rodgers and the Packers appear to found their stride.  The Vikings in the meantime are 2-7 after starting the season 5-0.

Indianapolis (+4) @ Oakland - While the Raiders are slight favorites at home, the Colts could keep it close given that their impressive road wins including against Pittsburgh and Green Bay.  

Tampa Bay @ New Orleans (-2) - New Orleans appears to have found its offensive bearings against the Cardinals and look to play spoiler in this one against the Bucaneers.  

San Francisco @ LA  (-3.5) -

In a battle of terrible teams, the Rams are at home and look to finally get Todd Gurley going.

Arizona (+8.5) @ Seattle - Arizona and Seattle re-match after a 6-6 tie- somehow both teams are playing better offensively.  Seattle does play much better at home although it could remain close because it is a division rivalry.

Cincinatti @ Houston (-1) -




Marvin Lewis now 8-22 against the Steelers all-time and have 9,479 days since their last playoff win.  Houston looks like a better team with Tom Savage and looks to utilize DeAndre Hopkins more against the Bengals defense.


Baltimore @ Pittsburgh (-5.5) - Big Ben and the Steelers look like a stronger team especially since the Ravens barely beat an Eagles.  This is a division game and the Ravens did beat the Steelers earlier this season.  Still, Big Ben looks much healthier since the first meeting but it is a division game.

Denver @ Kansas City (-4) - Both teams had disappointing losses.  Denver needs to keep its playoff hopes alive but their o-line has been sub-par and also have decided to shut down CJ Anderson.  

Detroit(+7) @ Dallas - Both teams are playing for a division title.  While the Lions are dealing with their share of injuries, the Lions could keep it within a touchdown against Dallas.

Last week against the spread: 8-8
Last week straight up: 12-4 
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Thursday, December 15, 2016

Week 15 Picks

My picks can also be found here on Sports on the Hill at 1h 49min 45 sec mark.  A few picks may have changed from then.  
The Rams move on from Jeff Fisher after a 42-14 loss to the Falcons.
LA (+15.5) @ Seattle  -



Both teams had terrible games last Sunday.  Russell Wilson lost for the 1st time in his career by more than 10 points.  Jeff Fisher has clinched his 11th losing season as head coach and that was enough to get him fired.

There are 4 teams in the NFL to score 10 points or less in at least 4 different games this season: Browns, Jets, Rams, and Seahawks.  Seattle may rebound although they did lose to the Rams this season earlier on the road.  And perhaps the Rams will play with a bit more fire now that Jeff Fisher is out.  

Miami (-2.5)@ New York Jets - Ryan Tanehill is out with a knee injury, Matt Moore could be a competent QB, Moore (16-9 TD as a starter) and has beaten the Jets before.    

Cleveland @ Buffalo (-10) - After losing to the Steelers, the Bills looks to put the clamps on RG3 lead Browns.  Perhaps Griffin will play better in the 2nd consecutive week, but the Browns problems run far deeper than that in their winless season.  

Detroit (+4.5) @ New York - Matthew Stafford has 8 winning drives this season.  The Giants defense has held off last minute winning drives in 8 of their 9 wins.  Something has to give.  

Philadelphia @ Baltimore (-6)- Baltimore looks to get back on track after losing to the Patriots to keep their playoff hopes alive.  Philadelphia is almost eliminated from postseason play and have been terrible on the road so far this season.  

Pittsburgh (3.5) @ Cincinnati - The Steelers are looking to complete the season sweep.  Leveon Bell didn't play the first time but neither did Burfict.   This time the Bengals will be without AJ Green and Bernard.  

Indianapolis @ Minnesota (-3.5) - The Colts may be without a few offensive weapons as TY Hilton and Donte Moncrieff miss practice.  Adrian Peterson could return this Sunday.  

Green Bay (6) @ Chicago - Chicago has been playing better and has played the Lions and Giants close in losses but the Packers looked like a well oiled machine against the Seattle and needs to win this game to keep its playoff hopes alive.  

Tennessee (+5.5) @ Kansas City - The Chiefs looks to cement itself as the best team in the AFC with a win on Sunday.  The Titans could make it a close game though as they are also eyeing a potential playoff spot.  

Jacksonville @ Houston (6)- Another battle of sub-par QBs; Osweiler vs Bortles.  The Texans have the edge because they have better receivers, a decent running game and a decent defense.

New Orleans @ Arizona (-2.5) - 

The Cardinals defense looks to continue that trend especially since the Saints have struggled on the road this season.

San Francisco @ Atlanta (-13.5) - No Julio Jones but the offense didn't suffer against the Rams especially with the emergence of Taylor Gabriel.  The 49ers did play the Jets close but the Falcons offense is a different beast.

New England (2.5) @ Denver - Rematch of the AFC championship game as the Patriots look to get revenge.  The Broncos offense has been sub-par over the past few weeks.

Oakland (3.5) @ San Diego - Bosa might be out for the Chargers.  The Raiders look to get back on track against a Chargers team that has struggled mightily over the past two weeks.

Tampa Bay (+7.5) @ Dallas - Dallas does need to win this game but the Bucaneers are one of the hottest teams in football and could make this game close.  

Carolina @ Washington (2.5)  - Washington did beat Eagles 27-22 , which is a good omen for them.  Minnesota and Atlanta are 2 teams that lost to the Eagles at Philadelphia and went on to beat Carolina.

Last year, Carolina beat Washington 44-16  although now Josh Norman is on Washington.  Cam Newton's accuracy has been significantly worse this season despite having Kelvin Benjamin back in the lineup.  The Panthers' defense has been suspect this season although they did play well last week against the Chargers.


Last week against the spread: 13-3
Last week straight up - 12-4
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Thursday, December 8, 2016

Week 14 Picks

My picks can also be found on the Sports on the Hill Podcast which is found at the 1h:43min mark. (My most up to date picks can be found here.)

Kansas City already beat Oakland 26-10 earlier this season.  

Oakland @ Kansas City (- 3) - 



Oakland had a sub-par effort against Buffalo and pulled it out lately while Chiefs with a close win against the Falcons.  It is still a rivalry game but the short week usually favors the home team.

Pittsburgh (-2) @ Buffalo - The Steelers are  are coming off an impressive double digit victory against the Giants while the Bills blew a double digit lead against the Raiders.   While Pittsburgh did beat the Giants at home, their road wins as of late include the Browns and the Colts without Andrew Luck. While the Steelers have laid eggs on the road, they have also come up big against teams like Washington.

San Diego @ Carolina (-1.5) - Both teams are coming off losses.  Luke Kuechly looks like he will be back which could be enough for the Panthers to slow down San Diego.

Cincinnati (-5.5) @ Cleveland-  The Bengals defense appears to have woken up against the Eagles and will look to feast on the Browns who are coming off a bye.  RG3 is coming back who lost to the Bengals in his rookie season.

Chicago(+8) @ Detroit- The Lions are playing good ball although the Bears did beat the Lions in OT earlier this season. That being said, Stafford and the Lions should still come away with a win but it could still a close game.

Houston (+6) @ Indianapolis - The Colts are the early favorites given that they have a stronger passing game and they are at home. But it could be a close game because they are division rivals.

Minnesota (-3) @ Jacksonville- After losing a game to the Cowboys due to some questionable officiating, the Vikings get a gift on the schedule. Coach Zimmer returns from surgery; the Jaguars are hoping Gus Bradley gets fired after losing a winnable game.

Arizona (+1) @ Miami - Arizona looks like the slight favorites here after putting together a solid performance.  The key for them will be to force timely turnovers against the Dolphins  and giving the ball to David Johnson, who had 175 all purpose yards against Washington.  The Redskins certainly regret taking Matt Jones over David Johnson in the 2015 NFL Draft.

Washington (-1) @ Philadelphia- Consider Washington the slight favorites although they will have to bring their A game even if the Eagles are struggling.  The Eagles have only lost one home game all year, and Cousins looked shaky last week against Arizona.  Still, Trent Williams returns and hopefully the game does not come down to a goal line fade.

Denver (+1) @ Tennessee - While the Titans are coming off a bye, Denver should be playing desperately if they want to make the playoffs

NY Jets (+2.5) @ SF - This might be the 49ers best chance at a win since week 1, although they struggled immensely against the Bears and the Jets are more than capable of beating the 49ers with superior wide receivers and a better running game.

New Orleans @ Tampa Bay (-2.5)- Tampa Bay passing game with Evans and Brate has helped Winston get it going. The Saints on the road aren't as good at home who just lost to the Lions.

Seattle @ Green Bay (+3)-



Weather could be a factor, still the Seattle showed it can beat a team like the Packers who have struggled to generate a pass rush.  Still, expect a close game that could go either way especially with Earl Thomas out.  This may be one of the best rivalries in the NFL.

Atlanta (-6) @ LA Rams - Atlanta looks to add another win against a n anemic Rams' offense.

Dallas (-3) @ NY Giants -  Look for the Cowboys to play hard against the Giants considering they are the only team that beat this year.

 Baltimore (+7.5) @ New England  - Ravens pulled in a great performance against the Dolphins.  It could be potentially a good game and the Ravens should keep it close especially since Gronk is out. I'm picking the Patriots to come away in a toss up game.

Last week against the spread: 9-6
Last week straight up: 9-6
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